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aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
12/6/21 6:58 p.m.

I always try to pay attention to current things that others might read about as history, and Russia's moves might be one of them.

-- please note - no intent on any political content - please do not add any --

If you every wondered how is it that any war is in any way a surprise, well, they generally aren't.  Mass mobilizations, troop movements etc. have been rather obvious for many, many years.  As some may know, Russia is currently massing a very large number of troops and equipment on the border with Ukraine.  I have even heard the presence of a large amount hospital / medical personnel and equipment have been confirmed (something not needed for any "exercises" or "training").

The guess is Christmas would be good time for invasion (for obvious reasons).  What is the result, the response from NATO etc.... hard to say, but much like historical precedence, the likelihood of actual action is very low (the small bite is ignored).

Some notes and considerations:

- Russians are very good in the winter(!).  No mud to deal with, so not a bad time for them

- They do have nukes

- Ukraine agreed to give up their nukes (they had a lot) in return for protection.... which has never materialized...

- A lot of Russia's economy is energy and weapons sales

- Having large numbers of troops sitting in camps for a long time gets really expensive.

- They intend to "liberate" ethnic Russians (you know... they are the good guys)... why does this remind me of Austria for some reason....

Most importantly:

- It's winter in Europe.....  it's cold in winter....    Russia supplies a LOT of natural gas to Europe....   pipelines can be turned off..... 

 

Russia now has 50 battalions comprising up to 94,000 troops stationed on the Ukrainian border with another 80,000 - 100,000 sitting in reserve and will be ready to invade within weeks, the US has warned

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10279477/Ukraine-Russia-border-Satellite-images-reveal-Putins-troop-build-continues.html

Mr_Asa
Mr_Asa GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
12/6/21 7:04 p.m.

Putin has been around for entirely too long.  He's going to keep at it till there is open war with the West.  Wouldn't be surprised if he's working something with China either.

03Panther
03Panther UltraDork
12/6/21 7:19 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

My compliments for the disclaimer. I personally see zero political slant in the facts you presented, or your comparisons for "thought food"

Lots of opportunities to turn it polilitical, but let's hope no one heads down that hole!

I was not aware, but not surprised. Good time to be glad I'm not in the Ukrainecheeky

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse PowerDork
12/6/21 7:20 p.m.

Russia makes a lot of money selling fossil fuels to Europe. Seems like a pretty mutually beneficial situation there. Also, pretty sure Russia and China do not like each other. Not that Japan, Germany, and Italy were best buds, either, but at some point you've got to question who you're hopping into bed with. 

Russia's smarter bet would be to ally up with the strongest partner they could find against China.  Like, say, the US.

Javelin (Forum Supporter)
Javelin (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
12/6/21 7:21 p.m.

Report from another source (that is well connected and researched and politically neutral): 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43371/russia-bolsters-supply-lines-deploys-medical-units-near-ukraine-as-invasion-fears-grow-report

Expect more reports on that site as things heat up.

I'll take New Year's Eve assault on the bingo card.

Antihero (Forum Supporter)
Antihero (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
12/6/21 7:29 p.m.

Christmas is in early January in the Ukraine I believe

Teh E36 M3
Teh E36 M3 UltraDork
12/6/21 7:35 p.m.

Isn't it just posturing for the Putin/Biden summit tomorrow? Putin wants the US/NATO to not expand eastward, nor add troops in europe, so he sets up a "war camp" to force a compromise. On the other hand, I don't trust him as far as I could throw him. Best case: status quo. Worst case: some combination of troop withdrawl/weakening of NATO, and/or Russia "reunifying" Ukraine. 

 

I'll ask my cat. He's a very Smug Russian Blue.

03Panther
03Panther UltraDork
12/6/21 7:42 p.m.

In reply to Teh E36 M3 :

I like the thought process you applied... including asking the cat!

About 20 years ago when I did low level operational planning for military stuff I liked GlobalSecurity.org for open source easy to access info. Most of it matched up well with the real order of battle info. Probably still worth a look if you want to see the team line-ups, analysis and likely plans.

fasted58
fasted58 MegaDork
12/6/21 7:46 p.m.

I just hope all participants are vaxxed up and wearing their masks.

Fight nice boys.

03Panther
03Panther UltraDork
12/6/21 7:53 p.m.
fasted58 said:

I just hope all participants are vaxxed up and wearing their masks.

Fight nice boys.

Well, it's not a political rant, except that most make it one. But is it in any way relevant, appropriate, or even welcome? 

fasted58
fasted58 MegaDork
12/6/21 7:55 p.m.
03Panther said:
fasted58 said:

I just hope all participants are vaxxed up and wearing their masks.

Fight nice boys.

Well, it's not a political rant, except that most make it one. But is it in any way relevant, appropriate, or even welcome? 

I'm just looking out for their well being

JoeTR6
JoeTR6 Dork
12/6/21 8:00 p.m.

Somebody needs to poke Putin with a polonium tipped umbrella.  Karma being what it is.

NickD
NickD MegaDork
12/6/21 8:05 p.m.

It would make a lot of sense to launch an attack relatively soon, strategically. Most of the world is in one sort of disarray or another. Could get pretty damn far before anyone gets their act together. 

For better or worse, I think Putin is a rational person. One cold ambitious bastard, but rational. On one hand, makes him less likely to start lobbing nukes willy-nilly or anything really crazy. On the other hand, the crazy ones do a good job of knocking themselves out of the fight (Hitler's absurd commitment to holding onto Norway late in the war, or Stalin murdering off his entire command structure in fits of paranoia)

Fueled by Caffeine
Fueled by Caffeine MegaDork
12/6/21 8:12 p.m.

Where's Hess when you need him?  Always on about the next war. 

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
12/6/21 8:17 p.m.

An often overlooked aspect of the Russia-Ukraine relationship at the moment is the fact that Russian-annexed Crimea was heavily dependent on Ukrainian-sourced fresh water, supplied via the Dnieper River and the North Crimea Canal, which the Ukrainians rudely shut off when the Russians invaded. Given Russia's commitment to the Crimea, and fresh water being a vital resource, and a problematic one to move in bulk (absent a pipeline, which I don't think is in the cards), Russia's hand is being forced here in a way that no other factor - other than perceived domestic political pressures, perhaps - can really account for. It will be interesting to see how this develops.

93EXCivic
93EXCivic MegaDork
12/6/21 8:17 p.m.

This isn't the first time the Russians have massed troops on the border. I am betting it is just a power move not the sign of an invasion.

Floating Doc (Forum Supporter)
Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
12/6/21 8:31 p.m.

I've been watching this. Analysis that I've read is that Putin will lose popular support if this proceeds to war.
I don't know if that's enough to restrain him, it's not like they have fair elections in Russia.  The opposition parties are made illegal and their candidates get murdered or imprisoned. 

Toebra
Toebra Dork
12/6/21 9:14 p.m.

This is, by its nature, a political topic.

Before too long, China and Russia are going to jump ugly in a coordinated fashion.  China will take Taiwan and the USA will not be able to do much about it, logistics and all.  Russia is in a strong position and it will get stronger as the weather gets colder.   Both of them will take advantage of American weakness, it is a matter of when

 

 

 

 

 

RossD
RossD MegaDork
12/6/21 10:02 p.m.

Anyone else watch the Putin Interviews with Oliver Stone. 

I am still watching it, but I am liking Oliver less and Vladimir more oddly enough.

Stone asks inflammatory questions and Putin responds with very diplomatic answers that are well thought out. Not that I necessarily believe the finer points...

The interesting part is more hearing Putins side of a political happening. Like "then the US supported the terrorist threatening us..." kind of thing.

Duke
Duke MegaDork
12/6/21 10:28 p.m.

In reply to RossD :

Oliver Stone is a total dick, and always has been.

 

Indy - Guy
Indy - Guy PowerDork
12/7/21 7:31 a.m.
Toebra said:

This is, by its nature, a political topic.

Before too long, China and Russia are going to jump ugly in a coordinated fashion.  China will take Taiwan and the USA will not be able to do much about it, logistics and all.  Russia is in a strong position and it will get stronger as the weather gets colder.   Both of them will take advantage of American weakness, it is a matter of when

 

 

 

 

 

Sadly, I think you may be right with your assessment.

stroker
stroker UberDork
12/7/21 7:37 a.m.
NickD
NickD MegaDork
12/7/21 8:01 a.m.
JoeTR6 said:

Somebody needs to poke Putin with a polonium tipped umbrella.  Karma being what it is.

Ehh, the devil you know. Like I said, Putin is not someone I'd invite to dinner, but I think he's very logical and stable in his own twisted way. The next guy might be worse.

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse PowerDork
12/7/21 8:15 a.m.
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