Aircooled: Where do your lists come from?
Aircooled: Where do your lists come from?
https://www.understandingwar.org/
They seem to do a good and impartial job of summarizing things, and do include references. The do have a map feature, but it doesn't include any incident locations. I probably should have used to it to show where Metropol is though:
Thanks. I can see why the Russians are keen on keeping Melitopel. It's already contested, and it only looks like 50 or 60 miles between Vaslivka to the inlet near Melitopel and once taken, the only connection that the Russians have to the southern occupied territories is a damaged bridge.
In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :
Not only that, but the terrain between the Dnipr and the P37 route between Tokmak and Berdiansk is very flat; it slopes up to the north and east of the P37 - not a lot, but enough that it should afford observation advantages over the lower ground. Basically, if the Ukrainians make a push toward Berdiansk and get ground observation over Melitopol, they'll potentially be able to interdict anything that moves across that plain. While I understand that drones and other forms of reconnaissance have made ground observation less critical than it used to be, it's still a considerable advantage.
Of note is that the Russians are apparently ordering civilians to evacuate the area the western part of the Kherson Oblast. Are they planning a withdrawal from there also? As mentioned before, this would put the canal entrance in Ukrainian hands. Most of that area is the in range of HIMARS and a lot of it for other artillery.
They have also moved a lot of their ships out of Sevastapol, apparently to avoid more drone ship attacks apparently. It is guessed they lost 800 men in the retreat from Kherson.
Russian troop moral, especially in that area, has to be horrible!
Head of occupation authorities of Yakymivka village of Zaporizhzhia region Maksym Zubarev denies information about his death
The Russian have had him shot for lying..... (note: this is a joke)
So...Is there any scenario where the russiands go home and leave Ukraine as it was in 2013 before they became unwelcome guest?
The reality is that a lot of the scenery that the russians took over DID have a significant "I wanna be russian" part of the population.
IF the russians are evicted, what will life be like for the pro-russians in these areas? I have to believe that there will be a lot of resentment and payback on what might be a humanitarian crisis level.
There really has to be almost no population left in the previously annexed areas that is pro-Ukrainian. There might be some that are becoming anti-Russian though so I would not expect a lot of payback going on (except by maybe some governing people maybe).
As O2 loves to point out (much to the chagrin of those who like to see just results) there is very unlikely to be a result where all of the previously annexed areas are fully returned (or at least one that the western power would bankroll), and as I like to point out, I am not sure they want them anyway (other then the mineral rights, which they very much want).
To quote Full Metal Jacket (great movie BTW):
"It's a great big s*it sandwich, and we are all going to have to take a bite"
In reply to NOHOME :
If the Ukrainians are smart, they will take the benevolent, forgiving conqueror route (e.g., the US post-WWII), not the "You asked for it, motherberkeleyers, and now you're going to get it" one (e.g., the French post-WWI). If they take the former, there's going to be a lot more Western money for rebuilding and such, and possibly some improvement in relations with the previously hostile population; the latter is only going to result in recriminations, atrocities, terrorism, and a very annoyed West with a severe case of buyer's remorse whose purses suddenly snap shut.
In short, if Ukraine wants to do something other than remain a wasteland post-conflict, they would do well to cultivate Western support just as tenaciously as they have during the fighting, and persecuting anyone, including ethnic Russians, is not likely to improve their position.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Difficulty: Eastern European. Grudges keep the heart warm.
In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :
Half my family is in the Balkans. I am quite familiar with the local inclinations. That said, Ukraine's decision-makers are swimming outside their own pond, and it's going to be up to them whether they are willing to commit to controlling their own people in exchange for continued Western support.
Some interesting developments:
Unconfirmed reports are that the Ukrainians have crossed the Dnieper at Kherson and are occupying the town on the other side of the now destroyed bridge, Oleshky. They may have also landed on the peninsula at the very southern end of the eastern side of the Dnieper.
Depending on how far the Russians have fallen back (I am certain US intel knows exactly where they are) Crimea is going to be in serious artillery and HIMARS jeopardy and may at least have their northern supply route within artillery range. Maybe the real reason why the ships at Sevastopol are being moved.
Also reports of Russia ordering civilian evacuation of cities in the eastern region. Perhaps another withdrawal?
Zelensky visited Kherson, so there clearly is not an imminent threat there.
Reports that forces are almost assembled for the push south into Metropol. If they can, probably better sooner than later since they are building defenses.
The reinforcement by Russian mobilized troops seems to be a total bust at this point.
In reply to aircooled :
If all that is true, I wonder if it means most of the Russian army has already collapsed and leadership is trying to get ahead of the game by evacuating them from front lines before it is obvious, to buy more time to reconstitute them.
eastsideTim said:In reply to aircooled :
If all that is true, I wonder if it means most of the Russian army has already collapsed and leadership is trying to get ahead of the game by evacuating them from front lines before it is obvious, to buy more time to reconstitute them.
Or is Putin pulling out so the tactical nukes don't harm the Russian troops near ground zero?
jharry3 said:eastsideTim said:In reply to aircooled :
If all that is true, I wonder if it means most of the Russian army has already collapsed and leadership is trying to get ahead of the game by evacuating them from front lines before it is obvious, to buy more time to reconstitute them.
Or is Putin pulling out so the tactical nukes don't harm the Russian troops near ground zero?
HAHAHAHAHAHA as if he cared about his troops.
Right now, it's a race. The Ukrainians are trying to gain as much as they can before the snows hit, and the Russians are trying to salvage a core of trained troops to build around during the winter lull. With the Russians building a three-tiered defensive line behind the Dnipr, I think it's fair to say that they have given up the idea of contesting the river, but are trying to ensure that the Ukrainians can't get far once they cross. With the bridges blown, it will be a slow crossing, even if uncontested; the Ukrainians will struggle to get forces sufficient for offensive operations across, which serves the Russians as well as could be expected.
A Ukrainian offensive on another axis seems far more likely, and striking south toward Berdiansk provides numerous advantages over continuing to push from the Dnipr bridgehead. Strategically, if the Ukrainians can manage to split the Russian-controlled territory in two, they will be in a position to systematically strangle the Russian-held oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea. If the Russians are unable to break the encirclement, they will be compelled to either negotiate, wait for the inevitable, or escalate. I suspect the current discussions between US and Russian intelligence chiefs are intended in part to minimize the chance of the latter option being chosen.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Lavrov has already left the G20 summit- most countries there are pressuring Russia to end the war. The only place Escalation could go is nuclear, but with the obvious failure of Putin's conscript forces and this massive pullback he could hit something as a terror strike but couldn't hold it.
Everything Ukraine has stated about winter is that they're VERY ready and are in fact, waiting for it; just in the past 2 days have called for OPSEC online again with allegations they're crossing into Crimea proper via that island of Dzharylhach or Olenivka; likely scouting ahead for artillery locations or to see troop depth. There's some impressions so far, that Ukraine's SF has been entering the occupied territories basically unimpeded.
Looking at the current weather reports, it appears to be pure misery in Southern Ukraine. Not cold enough for the ground to freeze, but low thirties and 40s with moderate wind, snow and rain. I imagine that it might freeze earlier further North, but close to water, one would expect a few degrees warmer.
Thank you, lord for placing me where I am, not there.
No confirmation yet of any crossing yet. One of the indications was the mayor of Oleshky (just to the east of Kherson across the river) had the cities web page welcoming people back. Now, this would certainly seem to indicate the Russians are gone, put hard to say if any Ukrainians made it there in any numbers (as noted, getting across the river is going to be a bit difficult for a while, especially with any heavy equipment).
To provide a bit of perspective on the situation. Here is a satellite shot of the Kherson Dnieper river area. Kherson is in the center, and the peninsula of land mentioned previously is to the far left (not much there). As you can see the eastern bank of the river is actually very sandy. The light spot on the right is actually a small desert! Not really great areas to setup defenses and lower than the west bank also.
Beyond the sand it's a lot of farmland and small towns. It would be very surprising if the Russians are not defending Nova Kakhovka (far upper right) where the dam is, and the inlet to the canal running to Crimea.
OK... so... warning..... something very Russian here.
How to motivate your soldiers not to desert:
Wagner chief has mercenary brutally executed with a sledgehammer for trying to desert
A Russian prisoner who caught trying to desert was brutally executed and mercenaries filmed the moment he was killed by a sledgehammer....
....The Russian mercenary gave his name as Yevgeny Nuzhin, 55 who had his head tapped to a wall before being executed.
Nuzhin said, “I got hit over the head and lost consciousness and came around in this cellar.
“They told me I was to be tried.”
Then immediately a man in combat clothing smashed his head and neck with a sledgehammer, he fell to the floor and was hit again in another blow to the head.
Prigozhin could then be hear giving a warning to others in Russian society whom he described as traitors trying to desert the war.
There is thankfully NO video in this link:
Uh Oh! Russia has now killed NATO civilians!!:
2 rockets suspected of being fired by Russia landed in the Polish border town of Przewodów killing 2 people. The premier of Poland is convening an urgent meeting with his national security team. - local media
A senior U.S. intelligence official says Russian missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people - AP
Either their missiles suck ass or their aiming is terrible. Cruise missiles should at least be able to hit the correct country.
Remember though, they are running out of the new stuff, so they are using a lot of old, less accurate missiles.
Yeah, I'm pretty certain that Poland will not take this one lightly.
In reply to aircooled :
Which this, to me, just reinforces to me that the were a huge paper tiger and not nearly the force we had assumed they would actually be.
In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :
The question, of course, is how exactly the remainder of the G20 was pressuring Russia? By telling them they really, really should? There's really not much more they can do at this point without escalating the situation themselves, and I think there's exactly zero motivation for that. As far as Russia's conventional escalation options, yes, they've narrowed, but they're far from nil. Hitting the rail lines that come in from the West and are the primary conduit for military equipment, mining Ukrainian ports, cutting off diplomatic contacts, and such are all on the table.
There's a big difference between conventional operations in winter and SOF doing their thing in the long, dark winter night. Not that winter offensives can't be carried out, but the casualties tend to be exacerbated by frostbite and other cold-related maladies, and the gains tend to be smaller. Perhaps Ukraine's high command believes they have the Russians on the run and plan to keep chasing them; they know more than I do, so I'll defer to their decision, but I don't expect continued gains at the rate we've seen in recent weeks.
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