In reply to GameboyRMH :
There is how they actually are, and there is how they present themselves to the world. They are not the same thing- which has always been that way for the USSR.
The big difference was that china saw they could supply the world with cheap labor when the USSR fell. Which made their people less angry. China had a uprising before the USSR did, and seeing how the USSR turned out, they had no choice but to do something.
In reply to alfadriver :
I think the party's communist branding is almost entirely for internal purposes, I don't think any other countries see it as more than the tattered communist bumper sticker on a very capitalist car that it's become at this point, and I don't think China does anything to alter that perception to the rest of the world - they're all too happy to be seen as a business-friendly environment to outsiders.
Not a lot of info on the offensive. Information is still scant. Clearly some offensive operation going on in the south. The Ukrainians appear to be taking back a lot of the territory Wagner retreated from around Bahkmut.
The shot of the destroyed (or hit) Leopard tank was apparently an artillery ambush by the Russians (recorded from a Russian drone). It looks to have taken out a Leopard, a few Bradley's and maybe some M113's (old US armored personnel carrier). The column appeared to be in ill-advised close formation. The Russians also published what they say is an attack helicopter hitting a Ukrainian column.
Clearly the Ukrainians are not releasing much. From an info-space perspective, they probably should release some good news shots, because it's all negative stuff (for the Ukrainians) being released by the Russians at this point (which will always have a suspicious level of credibility).
No way of knowing if the Ukrainians are all in at this point, or just probing around.
As a note. Any breakthroughs by the Ukrainians can be expected to be slow. The layers of defenses (trenches, fortifications, mine fields) the Russians have built (in the south) will make any rapid advancement slower, even if the defenses are lightly manned.
In reply to alfadriver :
I don't question Ukraine's motives for welcoming US overtures. As you say, states seek advantages and opportunities as they can. But I do question, quite strongly, what advantages and opportunities - other than to constrain Russia - the US saw in tightening the relationship with Ukraine (and Georgia). Contrast the US approach with Germany's under Angela Merkel; where the US focused on pushing the boundaries of its influence and NATO as far as possible with little regard for Russia's feelings about the matter, Germany engaged Russia both politically and economically. This is not to say the German approach was a success - it wasn't - but at least there was an acknowledgment of the fact that Russia had to be considered a relevant actor in the process. While the Germans were far too willing to gloss over serious issues in favor of maintaining the Berlin-Moscow economic and political axis (which also served the German economy well, and reinforced Germany's dominant position in the EU), the way in which both Bush and Obama presented Russia with policy faits accompli certainly added to the antagonism between the two states, and exposed divisions in the Western world that Putin later sought to exploit. Would he have felt the need to without the looming threat of NATO expansion? I don't know.
Some highlites:
- Ukraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider counteroffensive efforts that have been unfolding since Sunday, June 4.
- Ukrainian forces conducted a limited but still significant attack in western Zaporizhia Oblast on the night of June 7 to 8. Russian forces apparently defended against this attack in a doctrinally sound manner and had reportedly regained their initial positions as of June 8.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) responded to the Ukrainian attack with an uncharacteristic degree of coherency and praised Southern Military District elements for repelling the attack and regaining lost positions.
- Russian sources provided explanations for claimed Russian successes during the June 8 attacks, praising Russian forces’ effective use of electronic warfare (EW) systems, air support, and landmines against Ukrainian forces.
- Russian forces appear to have executed their formal tactical defensive doctrine in response to the Ukrainian attacks southwest of Orikhiv.
- Ukrainian attacks in western Zaporizhia on June 8 do not represent the full extent of Ukrainian capabilities in the current counteroffensive.
- It is additionally noteworthy that the Russian Southern Military District Forces deployed in this particular area are likely to be a higher quality force grouping than Russia has elsewhere in theater, and their defensive performance is unlikely to be reflective of defensive capabilities of Russian groupings elsewhere on the front.
- Russian forces and occupation authorities continue to exacerbate the humanitarian ramifications of the flooding resulting from the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam break.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly postponed his annual press conference from June 2023 until November or December 2023.
- Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove line and around Kreminna.
- Ukrainian forces made limited gains around Bakhmut, and Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
- Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
- The Russian MoD continues to posture itself as a firm authority over the defense industrial base (DIB) through emphasizing its ability to transport new equipment to the front.
- Russian occupation authorities are reportedly resorting to punitive measures against civilian populations in occupied Ukraine due to Russian occupation authorities’ decreasing influence over civilians.
In reply to GameboyRMH :
It's important to understand that all political entities are hybrids of systems, beliefs and practicalities. Communism is still primarily totalitarian in nature. Li Qiang may make lots of people happy by spreading money around, but he has far more ability to engage in central planning or to drop the hammer than our president does, which has benefits and liabilities.
Latest news says that the Zaporizhzha Nuclear Power Plant has enough water in it's cooling point for the next month. After that? Potential power down I guess.
A pic of some of the flooding and what used to be a town. The flooding should of course eventual recede once the upper lake drops. These areas will still be susceptible to flooding during heavy rains up stream from now on of course.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Money. Like China, Poland, and east Germany, lots of cheap labor in Ukraine.
It's always about money.
RUSSIANS PRODUCE DEFECTIVE T90
The source of the info is a pro Ukrainian site, so believe what you want. There is a video on the above website showing the damage.
***********************
The occupiers complained about the poor quality of the T-90M Proryv tanks manufactured by the Russian defense industry.
A video with an overview of the combat vehicle's defects was published on social networks.
The Russian military published a photo and video of the T-90M tank after an unknown munition hit the left side of the tank's armor. As a result of the hit, the welds on the tank's tower split.
**********
On another note, it appears that Britain no longer has the ability to make tank gun barrels.
In reply to alfadriver :
I don't think the evidence supports such a one-dimensional causality. If it were simply about cheap labor, the US would be far more engaged in Africa, for example. Historically, in free market systems, when economic opportunities are pursued, it is normally the private sector that leads the charge; that was simply not the case in Ukraine. And nothing about increasing economic engagement requires concurrent development of the military relationship.
In reply to 02Pilot :
IIRC the labor may be cheap in Africa, but transporting the product of that labor is very expensive, by some geographical oddities.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Couple of things- the former east has some decent skills to it, unlike other places. Plus there are (or used to be) some factory buildings.
The EU embraced Poland with their cheap, skilled labor. So Ukraine is a natural fit.
Still, look hard enough, it's always money that really motivates people. I know we Americans want to really want the Declaration as the reason, but the real core of the rebellion here was money. Smugglers financed much of the war.
In reply to alfadriver :
The sum total of Ukraine's entire export economy amounts to ~2.5% of US imports, and of course trade would never be exclusively bilateral, so the actual value would be significantly lower. I find it hard to accept the argument that the US government based its Ukraine policy solely on improving access to that market, particularly given that there is little evidence supporting your assertion.
There's no question that money motivates actions in individuals, and to some extent in governments, but to suggest that it is the sole motivation behind all policy is reductio ad absurdum, particularly when there are significant political and military factors operating.
There's video circulating of the field where the Leopards and Bradleys were destroyed. Looks like the Ukrainian forces sent another 4 Bradleys in as recovery vehicles, and Russian drones were still monitoring the area, and they attacked the recovery vehicles. Seems like a really bad tactical error on the Ukrainians' part.
Didn't the US after WWII tell Germany and Japan basically that we would buy anything they could produce if they would just play nice? Same thing with China over the last 30/40 years? Even Russia but then they just couldn't.
In reply to aircooled :
I am still sad and somewhat unbelieving that Russia and Ukraine are at war. The status seems like a star trek episode of people fighting now just because they started fighting then. Russian military seems it will slightly rise above ineffective and Ukraine must know they can only punch above their weight so long.
Almost wish there was a star ship that could just beam all the weapons away and setup some "Zelensky and Putin, at Mars. Zelensky and Putin the river temarc, Zelensky and Putin at tanagra."
Advan046 said:In reply to aircooled :
I am still sad and somewhat unbelieving that Russia and Ukraine are at war. The status seems like a star trek episode of people fighting now just because they started fighting then. Russian military seems it will slightly rise above ineffective and Ukraine must know they can only punch above their weight so long.
Almost wish there was a star ship that could just beam all the weapons away and setup some "Zelensky and Putin, at Mars. Zelensky and Putin the river temarc, Zelensky and Putin at tanagra."
As long as we are wishing, someone please invent phasers set on stun.
Hose down the enemy area and remove their weapons. Repeat until done.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Remember the US is nato, too. And the eu benefits a lot by cheap, accessible, and skilled labor. The people don't like it all that much until they notice how cheap items are from Poland. Which is better than from China. Ukraine is Poland 20 years ago.
Let alone if ukraine can modernize their farming more. They have a big space to have significant trade on their part.
Look back at the humanitarian conflicts that we barely or didn't really support vs the ones we initiated or supported. Economics drives a lot of that. If it didn't, we would have dealt with the crisis in Somalia and Sudan already.
In reply to 02Pilot :
That is like saying 30 years ago that Apple stock is only a few $$$. It's more about potential value than current value.
In reply to Noddaz :
Either there is a glitch in the Matrix, or they are also now mounting street signs to their treads.
There's definitely some funny business going on with that photo. Some weird horizontal streaking in the yellow box, and a big delta-shaped chunk of the hull replicated over one of the wheels as shown in the red ovals. Ans it looks like a particularly funny place for that road sign. Is this immediately adjacent to a roadway that has a dedicated truck lane?
Kind of makes me wonder whether they left it in on purpose, kind of like the deliberate spelling and grammatical errors in spam that weed out people less likely to fall for it. Assuming that this is an altered photograph and not simply some kind of optical illusion, whoever compiled the image may have reasons for leaving it this way.
In reply to alfadriver :
Again, you are presenting a speculative and unsupported argument. First, there is no way of saying with even the slightest certainty that Ukraine's economic development will mirror Poland's post-1990. Could it happen? Sure. Could it go a completely different way? Sure. For every post-Cold War Poland, or post-war West Germany, there's a post-Franco Spain or post-war Italy. There are simply too many variables.
Second, regarding crises the US had limited or no involvement in, correlation does not equal causation. One can state that because Somalia and Sudan lack economic resources and opportunities the US has not become involved, but it is equally valid to state that the US did not intervene because neither conflict was relevant to American vital interests.
Ukraine becoming stable and Western-oriented may well lead to significant improvements to its economy, but whether it does or does not will not have much impact on the US economy. The EU might see some benefit long-term, but it will take years and years to offset the billions poured in since the invasion, and the likely need for more billions to support rebuilding post-war. Even your preferred example of Poland has had a net take from the EU budget of ~170 billion Euros, and continues to receive roughly 10 billion more per year than it contributes.
Unless you have evidence to support your assertion, I think we've exhausted the topic.
Some videos and pics coming out from the Ukrainians side. One showing the Ukrainians clearing a trench complex with the help of two Hummers with mounted machine guns. The Russians eventually run out of trench and try to crawl to some cover... to eventually sacrifice themselves... to defend some dirt that wasn't even theirs...
Another video of Russians running from their defensive positions and a shot of a TOS-1A (the ones that shoot the fuel/air explosive rockets) destroyed by a Paladin (US build self propelled artillery).
The Ukrainians are reported to be making progress, but it is reasonable to assume progress will be slow as they have to work their way through multiple lines of defense. The Russians have also apparently been lobbing air launched glide bombs. I would suspect these would only be useful against static targets since I believe they are GPS guided and it could take some time to relay targets to to the planes (?).
Currently no map updates are being made.
Of note in the pics below is that the positions where clearly made in a patch of trees. The almost completely de-branched trees and multiple impact holes seems to indicate a rather serious artillery barrage happened before this.
It's a bit sad to note that it looks to be a rather pretty area with the flowing long grass. It really reminded me of the hill assault scene in The Thin Red Line (very impactful movie BTW).
In reply to Russian Warship, Go Berkeley Yourself and DarkMonohue:
That is hilarious. I should look closer. I did see the generated box around what looks like a hatch but thought nothing of it.
Nice catch BTW.
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