British Intelligence:
British Intelligence:
Current shot of the Crimean canal:
Russian column being ambushed (by artillery):
BBC is reporting that the Russian government is moving to establish unity of command by requiring Wagner fighters to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. Wagner leadership is resisting, vocally. This could prove interesting.
Prygozhyn reacted to the order from Ruzzian defence ministry.
He stated that the Wagnerites would not be subordinate to the RF Ministry of Defense.
“Those orders and decrees that Shoigu forms, they apply to employees of the Ministry of Defense and military personnel. PMC "Wagner" will not sign any contracts with Shoigu. PMC "Wagner" is organically built into the overall system, PMC "Wagner" coordinates its actions with the generals on the right, left, with unit commanders. What can happen after this order - we will not be given weapons and ammunition - we will figure it out, as they say, when the thunder strikes, they will come running and bring everything, ”said the leader of the mercenaries.
It's raining in southern Ukraine, so expect slower progress.
There is a picture of Russian soldiers downed in their positions as the result of the dam collapse, indicating they didn't expect (at least) the full collapse, or incompetence.
Ukrainian military fully controls Neskuchne village near Velyka Novosilka (eastern part of the southern front)
A railway bridge from Crimea to southern Ukraine was blown up. As this goes on, the Russians could developed some serious supply issues (which appears to very much be part of the plan)
A map of Russian defensive structures:
A map update that give you an idea of how far they have gotten so far (gray is recent). As you can tell, a long way to go. The draining lake is to the left.
In reply to aircooled :
A push in that direction is probably aimed at capturing Tokmak, and the P37 highway that runs from there to Berdyansk. It also opens the door to a further advance toward Melitopol, which is closer. It will be interesting to see if that Ukrainians continue to push on that axis, or if this is still part of the shaping operations preliminary to an advance somewhere else.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Very interesting. Apparently Tokmak is a pretty key rail hub, so controlling it has to be pretty desirable. Tokmak is also very close (~10 km) to Molochans'k, where the Mennonite humanitarian group I mentioned a while ago was based prior to the invasion. I'm hoping they have something to go back to when this is over.
I am pretty sure Tokmak is #2 in the map above. The one completely surrounded by defensive lines. The defensive lines to the left and right appear to be along the highways (and I assume rail lines).
As noted before, a general focus of the Ukrainians seems to be logistics and supply. Moving slowly at this point could even be a plan, as things could potentially get a lot easier if the Russians start running low on supplies.
In reply to aircooled :
You are almost certainly right. Number 2 sure looks like Tokmak. Do you mind sharing your source for that map?
Claims here that "today Ukraine targeted the Tokmak russian base and hub supply center. It was completely demolished."
DarkMonohue said:In reply to aircooled :
You are almost certainly right. Number 2 sure looks like Tokmak. Do you mind sharing your source for that map?
It was in a Telegram feed, but I think it was sourced from the Ukrainian military / government.
I wonder if Germany wants that Leopard that was destroyed. Real time damage in combat to one of their tanks could provide lots of information to improve the product.
As the water recedes in the lake created by the dam that was destroyed... things emerge. That is a WWII German helmet BTW.
Another shot of the flooding, including Russian fortifications shown as red triangles. As you can see...
The same map also shows fortifications in other areas, including those surrounding Tokmak. The city being surrounded with fortifications would seem to indicate the Russians intend to fight it out in the city, even if partially surrounded. Not a good thing for the city. I would certainly recommend any civilians there get out (at least to a less strategic city) if the Ukrainians get anywhere near.
Oh, and apparently the Russians blew another dam in the center of the southern front (south of the areas the Ukrainians are making good progress in)
I do wonder if the Russians will be using the scotched earth tactics they used with the Germans in WWII. In that case they burned any villages and crop fields they retreated from, to deny the Ukrainians access to those assets. This would be a huge, wildly unnecessary D move by the Russians... but... Russia. One thing that might dissuade them from doing that though is that I hear the Chinese have a lot of investments in Ukrainian farms, though most of that might be in western Ukraine.
Here you can see why Tokmak is so critical. The only rail line running from Crimea to Russian, not over the Kerch bridge, runs just south of the town.
Also of note is the area where the Ukrainians are making good progress (upper right and left area of pic). As you can see there are no Russian fortifications in that area. The blown dam in on the river shown center right (Heorhiivka?).
Trenches aren't old school enough? Hold my Vodka. Now we have moats!
aircooled said:As the water recedes in the lake created by the dam that was destroyed... things emerge. That is a WWII German helmet BTW.
That picture looks a little familiar, and creepy.
In reply to eastsideTim :
That brings up an interesting observation. If people killed in non-natural (e.g. war) ways could come back to life (which is a common horror plot), it seems like Ukraine is one of the prime places you would NOT want to be. There has been a LOT of death and destruction in what is Ukraine now throughout history.
There are probably parts of China that should be avoided also.
The fact that the Ukrainians have been devoting much of their long-range ordnance to interdiction strikes rather that hitting key fortified points from a safe distance suggests they are planning to breakthrough and exploit with a deep penetration behind Russian lines; they are more concerned with limiting the ability of Russian mobile reserves to move quickly against any such penetration. If it were me, based on what I'm seeing on that map, I'd be looking at the seam running on the line Novoprokopivka-Ostrykivka, passing east of Tokmak, cutting the rail line, and threatening Melitopol. I would anticipate grinding, largely infantry- and artillery-based attacks to push through the first defensive lines, then a heavy mechanized strike against the final line northeast of Tokmak. This is mostly overland, and weather will be a huge factor in how quickly Ukraine can proceed. Fortunately for them, it's early June, not September, so they have time to work methodically until they have the battlefield conditions they want for the breakthrough.
It's a worrisome time. There's going to be a lot of blood. Poorly trained soldiers are more useful in defense than offense, and the idea of avoiding fortifications by penetrating, then encircling can be turned around so that the penetrating force ends up encircled. Every indication would seem to indicate that Putin will keep his army in the field till severely beaten or there's a coup. Either one is a humanitarian nightmare. Sometimes I read the news and feel unclean.
In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :
The thing about low quality troops in fortifications is that they tend not to want to leave them. If the Ukrainians can partially neutralize Russian mobile reserves, they have a reasonable shot at holding their flanks open once they get through.
I'm curious about how much of Russia's planned reserve is Wagner formations. There's a couple weeks until the deadline Shoigu set for them to sign contracts - I don't see them signing. If Russia is relying on Wagner to stop a deep penetration, they could be in for an unpleasant surprise. If they aren't, then what are they going to do if (when?) Wagner refuses to cooperate? The timing of the announcement seems very poor, at least from an external perspective. There may be internal security considerations we are not yet aware of in play.
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