Here is where the town the Ukrainians recently took is. The western end of the southern front:
Here is where the town the Ukrainians recently took is. The western end of the southern front:
Some interesting assessments, including an predicted pause in the offense by the Ukrainians. This does not necessarily mean they are doing worse than expected. They now may be trying to decide if and, more importantly where, they will commit to a full offensive.
Ukrainian forces may be temporarily pausing counteroffensive operations to reevaluate their tactics for future operations. Head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Colonel Margo Grosberg stated on June 16 that he assesses "we won't see an offensive over the next seven days.”[7]The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on June 17 that Ukrainian forces “have mostly paused their advances in recent days” as Ukrainian command reexamines tactics.[8] These reports are consistent with ISW’s recent observations of the scale and approach of localized Ukrainian counterattacks in southern and eastern Ukraine.[9] ISW has previously noted that Ukraine has not yet committed the majority of its available forces to counteroffensive operations and has not yet launched its main effort.[10] Operational pauses are a common feature of major offensive undertakings, and this pause does not signify the end of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
A Wall Street Journal (WSJ) interview with Russian prisoners of war (POWs) indicates continued significant morale and command issues among frontline Russian units and the continued Russian use of “barrier forces” to shoot retreating soldiers.[11]WSJ amplified the statements of three unidentified Russian POWs who voluntarily surrendered to Ukrainian forces during Ukrainian counteroffensive operations near Velyka Novosilka, on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts. The POWs reported widespread fear of a Ukrainian counteroffensive among Russian forces on the frontlines. The POWs indicated that the Russian military command sees Russian conscripts and penal recruits as expendable, and claimed Russian officers order injured personnel deemed unfit for service back to the front line and use “barrier forces” to prevent penal recruits in “Storm-Z” units from retreating. Barrier forces are specialized units that threaten to shoot their own personnel either to prevent retreats or to force them to attack, and unverified social media footage recently circulated depicting Russian barrier troops shooting retreating Russian forces in Ukraine.[12] The POWs also indicated that Russian forces struggle to supply and staff their units, including struggling to crew tanks and armored vehicles.[13]The POWs expressed concern about returning to Russia in a POW exchange due to Russian laws prohibiting voluntary surrender to the enemy.
Another assessment from British Intelligence from a few days ago. Obviously almost no way to say what those casualty numbers are as neither side certainly will not admit to any real numbers:
Shot of power plant cooling pond, then and now:
In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :
That was painful to watch on the computer.
I bet the Ukrainians will not let any armor get that close anymore if they can help it.
In reply to aircooled :
That will make starting back up difficult; the big pond is needed to cool the plant while running. The little pond is the safety cooling pond needed to keep the sight safely cool while shutdown; thankfully it appears to be intact.
Someone please explain to me why people from Chechnya would fight for the Russians. It is not as if Russia has been kind to Chechnya in history, recent or otherwise.
In reply to Noddaz :
Chechen society is somewhat, for want of a better term, tribal. There are warlords leading various groups, some of whom opposed the Russians, and some of whom supported them (after suitable inducements were provided, naturally). It's an imperfect analogy, but you see similar situations in the American West during the height of Westward Expansion, with some tribes fighting the US military, attacking settlers, etc., and others moving to reservations, either laying down their arms or providing scouting and other auxiliary support to the military.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Thank you. So as long as "my" specific Chechen people were not killed, it is ok. 
Seems a bit shortsighted to me. But then people have a very long history of being shortsighted.
In reply to Noddaz :
Since then, there's been 4 other VIBEDs. The Russians are literally following Syrian rebel tactics with them, using the shockwaves to clear mines and trenches.
If I had "barrier" troops behind me, and certain death in front of me, I would be rallying my comrades to shoot at the barrier troops.
GIRTHQUAKE said:In reply to Noddaz :
Since then, there's been 4 other VIBEDs. The Russians are literally following Syrian rebel tactics with them, using the shockwaves to clear mines and trenches.
Hopefully, the Ukrainians will be able to adapt to this quickly. At the very least, I'm guessing they are going to be willing to take longer shots with ATGMs, or be more quick to use drone-based bombs on anything headed their way.
eastsideTim said:Hopefully, the Ukrainians will be able to adapt to this quickly. At the very least, I'm guessing they are going to be willing to take longer shots with ATGMs, or be more quick to use drone-based bombs on anything headed their way.
Or take cover when the really old tanks drive at you without firing.
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:In reply to aircooled :
That will make starting back up difficult; the big pond is needed to cool the plant while running. The little pond is the safety cooling pond needed to keep the sight safely cool while shutdown; thankfully it appears to be intact.
That big pond is what used to be the Kakhovka Reservoir. At least it looks like the old river channel is pretty close to the power plant and water could be pumped to the plant's cooling pond.
wikipedia.org: Kakhovka Reservoir
Edit: Or are you calling that little finger strip of water inside the square pond the safety cooling pond?
Silly thought I just had.
President Zelenskyy should ask China for help. Publicly. Medical, weapons, vehicles or whatever. Anything they could offer would be great. But with no strings attached. The Ukrainians would be grateful for the help.
Well, this is potentially disturbing (translation is a bit weird):
Due to the fact that the Russians destroyed the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, they destroyed the normal access of water to the coolers at the ZNPP.
“But the second, the worst thing, is that the ZNPP was additionally mined. And the worst thing is that the cooler is mined. If they disable it, then there is a high probability that there will be significant problems,” the head of the GUR said.
If I am reading that right, the cooling pond shown in the pics above is mined to blow. You say: but the Russians wouldn't do such a stupid thing... oh wait...
In reply to aircooled :
Any serious chance that the ZNPP plant could blow needs to be an automatic Article 5 escalation/America gets involved scenario.
Nuclear terrorism cannot, and SHOULD not, ever be accepted or allowed to become an option for nations in hostilities.
There is potential the Ukrainians may have a discovered a way to ambush or take out Ka-52 Russian attack helicopters. Reports of a number of them being shot down recently. This may be one of those stories you read about later of what they did. Reducing the threat of Russian aviation could be a huge help.
On a similar vein, there is a video out of a Ka-52 flying with it's tail blown off. You might say: Helicopters can't fly without a tail rotor! Well, if they have counter rotating main rotors they can rather easily. Technically a typical layout helicopter can fly without one also since they are mostly needed to counter the torque increases and decreases (power on and off) of the main rotor (counter rotating rotors of course cancel this out). But, flying a helicopter without changing the main rotor power is going to be mostly impossible.
Kamov has used coaxial rotors for a very long time. It's their signature. The tail helps with stability at speed, but isn't necessary for controlled flight. I'd like to believe that since it's an attack helo, such a contingency was designed to be survivable.
Many people do not know that the US used to use a counter rotating blade helicopter, the Kaman HH-43B Huskie (1950s). It of course use intermeshed counter rotating rotors, which is pretty scary to watch, but it works. The other weird thing about it is it had little ailerons on the rotors (seen below) to control blade warp and thus directional control. The clear advantage of this design was easy access to the rear of the passenger compartment, making it a very good rescue / evac design.
Not surprisingly, Kaman makes a modern helicopter of a similar design. Used mostly for logging and firefighting.
Noddaz said:Silly thought I just had.
President Zelenskyy should ask China for help. Publicly. Medical, weapons, vehicles or whatever. Anything they could offer would be great. But with no strings attached. The Ukrainians would be grateful for the help.
I suspect some of that has already been discussed, but the Chinese were probably keen to put eyes on American tech, and the Pentagon was likely leery to allow the Chinese such access. Conversely, China is unlikely to deploy it's military tech against Russia because 1) it wouldn't want its effectiveness compared against American arms for fear of tanking possible military sales to other countries, or showing how terrible it might be, and 2) Russia is a potential trading partner going forward.
I suspect China is staying neutral in the hopes it can secure infrastructure rebuilding contracts in both Ukraine and Russia after the conflict, as well as selling arms to Russia in the future.
Russia's economy is weak compared to China, but it's resources, including agriculture, are a prime bargaining chip for future relations. China doesn't need Ukraine. It may need Russia.
With all of the Russian soldiers afraid to retreat, and afraid for good reason to surrender to be traded back into Russian Jail, I wonder if Ukraine could offer diplomatic immunity and or limited citizenship to surrendering Russians. Advertise it heavily. Empty the Russian army by not shooting at them, just round them up and offer a better life.
They already do via Ukraine's "I Want to Live" hotline.
In reply to pheller :
It would suck to surrender to a drone just to be traded back to the Russians in a prisoner exchange.
You'll need to log in to post.
