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alfadriver
alfadriver MegaDork
6/23/23 2:52 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

Is that real?  Sure doesn't seem like it, as it implies that this could have been dealt with many years ago without anyone dying.

Kreb (Forum Supporter)
Kreb (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
6/23/23 3:03 p.m.

Well he's a sh-t-stirrer if there ever was one, but isn't that the story of most conflicts? They boil down to one person or groups ego being imposed on others.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/23/23 3:33 p.m.

In reply to alfadriver :

Yeah, the bit about Zelensky being up for agreements seems a bit suspicious and unlikely (depending on what the agreement would be of course).

He is painting a very dire picture about the state of the Russian army / military, but he is also trying to generate support to shovel him more money so his army can "save Russia".  I suspect there is at least some truth in what he says.  He warned that when he left Bakmut, the flanks where weak and the Ukrainians would take them.  That was generally true.

06HHR (Forum Supporter)
06HHR (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
6/23/23 4:49 p.m.
DarkMonohue
DarkMonohue GRM+ Memberand Dork
6/23/23 5:00 p.m.
eastsideTim
eastsideTim UltimaDork
6/23/23 5:02 p.m.

I'm guessing Prigozhin hasn't been back inside Russian borders for a while.  If the above report is true, I wonder if it was an assassination attempt from the Russian M.O.D., or just incompetence?

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/23/23 5:10 p.m.
DarkMonohue said:

Another angle:

BBC News - Russia accuses Wagner chief of urging 'armed mutiny'

"This is not a military coup, but a march of justice. Our actions do not interfere with the troops in any way."

Translation: He's launching a (private) military coup.

alfadriver
alfadriver MegaDork
6/23/23 5:33 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

It would be crazy that the whole source of this was all internally russian.  Which it could be.

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
6/23/23 7:07 p.m.

Are we watching the beginning of Russia's next civil war?

 

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/23/23 7:11 p.m.

He has been saying similar things for a while, so this isn't entirely unusual.  I am not sure how much support he has outside of Wagner.  He does seem to be the most vocal critic inside Russia though.

Or..... maybe?

"There are 25 thousand of us and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in the country. Everyone who wants welcomed to join us. We must end this disgrace," - Prigozhin

------

RF Defence ministry raised the Russian Guard for combat readiness in Moscow.

-----

After Prigozhin's statements, a criminal case was initiated on incitement to an armed rebellion, the National Anti-Terrorism Committee of the Russian Federation said.

----

Shoigu will be hanged on Red Square and lie down in the mausoleum with Lenin, - Prigozhin.

---

Security measures have been strengthened in Moscow, all the most important facilities, state authorities and transport infrastructure facilities have been taken under enhanced protection," the source said. According to him, the OMON and SOBR units of the Russian Guard have been alerted.

-----

 

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/23/23 7:20 p.m.

Uhm... this might be real!:

On the Rostov-Moscow highway in the area of ​​Cossack Camps, the first clash occurred between Wagner PMCs moving towards Moscow and units of the National Guard.

As a result of the skirmish, the Russian Guard fled, leaving their weapons and several armored personnel carriers, and the PMC column continued to move towards Moscow.

-----

Now we are entering Rostov, - Prigozhyn

-----

“If anyone gets in the way, we will destroy everyone. We go to the end, ”Prigozhyn

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/23/23 7:29 p.m.

If he is doing what he says he is doing, the Russian will likely have very little defense to throw in his way, most all of their army is of course on the battle lines.  The big question would be use of airpower (which Wanger should have none I believe, but they should have air defense)

The Russian army appears to be taking this seriously.  There are pictures of Russian army units on the streets in Moscow.  Russia has severely limited internet access.

Would the Russians nuke Prigozhyn (and many of their citizens of course) to keep him out of Moscow!?!?

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/23/23 7:35 p.m.

It's a bit confusing figuring out where "Rostov" is.  It might be Rostov-on-Don, but that is way in the south east (on the shore of the Black Sea, no where near Moscow).  (?)

The only other Rostov I see is north east of Moscow.  I guess their camp could be all the way up there?

EDIT:  Looks like Rostov is referring to the Oblast, which where Rostov-on-Don is.  Which puts him a good 500 miles from Moscow.  Essentially driving straight up behind the Russian lines most of the way.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/23/23 7:52 p.m.

(very much rumor information):

Dmitri on Twitter States that there are multiple reports across Russian telegram channels of large infighting in the Russian army, with many soldiers reportedly turning against the army in support of Prigozhin.

Looks like someone hacked Russian TV to broadcast Wagner message:

Wagner’s Prigozhin: All patriots of Russia, true patriots of the country, go out into the streets, we will find weapons. This night we will solve the issue of traitors and criminals who disgraced Russia. Their names are Shoigu, Gerasimov.

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/23/23 7:55 p.m.

These are a bit hard to interpret.   Is this saying the FSB (which Putin was a part of at one point) is letting them though!?!

ASTRA sources report that the order not to resist the movement of Prigogine residents across the border came from the FSB: “There was no resistance to the penetration of the Wagner fighters, they were quietly let through.”

I guess they did not attack?:

The head of the General Staff of the Russian Federation gave the order to launch airstrikes on the columns of Wagner PMC - Prigozhin.

Yevgeny Prigozhin thanked the pilots, who, in his words, "refused to obey the order."

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/23/23 8:24 p.m.

Another rumor level:

The short version: The Wagner rebellion seems to be real. Long version: Based on - the amount of messages from Wagner and Russian sources; - the activation of the Rosvgardia in Rostov (to stop Wagner); - the language used by the ministry of Defense; - the National Anti-Terrorism Committee that Yevgeny Prigozhin became the basis for initiating a criminal case on incitement to an armed rebellion; - The shout out from General Surovikin to "Stop the columns, and return them to their permanent positions and places of concentration." - Footage emerging of military armored vehicles in Moscow. We do not find anything at the moment that can contradict the current claimed situation: Wagner is gathering forces and is moving away from the occupied Ukrainian territories towards Russia, in what probably would be the direction of, Moscow. Because of the panic, a lot of people trying to spread their own interpretations, the lack of footage, it will be hard to find out what is really going on:

VikkiDp
VikkiDp Reader
6/23/23 8:24 p.m.

All Ukraine under VERY massive missiles attaks right now!!!

Pray for us

TJL (Forum Supporter)
TJL (Forum Supporter) Dork
6/23/23 8:42 p.m.

Sorry Vikki. Hopefully this will end soon. 
 

Is wagners "going after moscow" the thing that Ukraine has been waiting for?  With this chaos in russia (well, more chaos than usual), it would be a great time to really get the offense moving. 

NOHOME
NOHOME MegaDork
6/23/23 8:55 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

It might be Rostov-on-Don

It seems that Rostov-on-don is the home of one huge arsenal-storage facility. Basically one of three hubs used to supply the front line. Prigozhyn has been known to complain about a lack of ammo, so maybe this is his way to deal with that issue.

Are the Kremlin talking heads saying anything about this?

matthewmcl
matthewmcl Dork
6/23/23 9:21 p.m.
VikkiDp said:

All Ukraine under VERY massive missiles attaks right now!!!

Pray for us

Have and will continue. Stay safe. Slava Ukraini.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/23/23 9:23 p.m.

It is strange timing for a big missile attack.  Reports of an building hit in Kyiv.  No updates from Dnipro.

They are shutting down Rostov-on-don, so I suspect they are worried he might go after the storage facility.  Last report was he going north through Shakhty though (shown on map above, just north or Rostov-on-don.  He could theoretically be near Moscow within a day.

I don't think there has been any real statements by the Russian leadership since they ordered Pregozhin's arrest.  No word from Putin at least.  They are probably trying to figure out if they need to head for a bunker, or boogie out of the country with a pile of cash.

Prigozhin is reporting he shot down a Russian helicopter.

If nothing else, this might effectively removes the Wagner units (their best) from the fight.  Pregozhin's beef seems to be mostly with the Russian army leaders so Putin is likely not in danger.  He of course, could somehow take over the Russian Army... I have no idea what the likelihood of that is.

matthewmcl
matthewmcl Dork
6/23/23 9:37 p.m.
aircooled said:

It is strange timing for a big missile attack. 

Not really, a very large portion of Russia's military in Ukraine just left. Russia will want Ukraine thinking about anything but taking that vacated territory.

84FSP
84FSP UberDork
6/23/23 10:46 p.m.

I'm hoping what I am seeing on twitter and telegram is real.  Serious implosion of the Russian regime if so.  Fingers crossed it's enough to have the forces pull out and save countless lives on both sides.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1672431977503367168?s=20

johndej
johndej SuperDork
6/23/23 10:50 p.m.

In reply to VikkiDp :

Keep your head down Vikki! You're making things the best you can with what you're dealing with, that's winning. 

GIRTHQUAKE
GIRTHQUAKE SuperDork
6/23/23 11:15 p.m.

I'm not even going to try an "tighten" or spruce up these links, because goddamn everything is happening now. Wagner is absolutely going Civil war and has taken a city the size of Boston.

I hope you're okay Vikki.

 

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672439008629231617?s=20

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672440998637756421?s=20

https://fxtwitter.com/AricToler/status/1672442182714753024

Russian TV is openly calling it an insurrection: https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1672376026532306945?cxt=HHwWgoCzhdbIvLUuAAAA

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672357801102921728

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672357284427513858

 

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