History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Ran across a pretty good overview of the initial Russian invasion and attempt to capture Kyiv.  It made me think that this story will likely make a rather good (if done properly of course) movie someday.  It reminds me a bit of Operation Market Garden, which was memorialized in the somewhat famous movie: A Bridge To Far.  In which the Allies attempted to leapfrog ahead, with heavy use of airborne troops, to capture bridges across the numerous rivers between Belgium and Germany, including the critical Remagen bridge across the the Rhine river (which is the boarder to Germany, so likely more aggressively defended).

The use of airborne troops is, and has always been, very risky, since, pretty much by definition, are VERY lightly armed and supplied.

One thing that isn't covered in this is what the state of the two units that participated in the raid was after the raid, being likely the two most elite units in the Russian army. It also implies the Ukrainians where well aware of this tactic, but it's also pretty clear, there was little attempt to defend for it (only that there was quick realization of what was going on).

(Yes, I realize the publisher has a clear political angle, but there does not seem to be any evidence of it in this, which there really shouldn't be)

Historical note:  The bridge in Remagen, the Ludendorff bridge, which collapsed in 1945, was never rebuilt.  Here is a picture from 1976:

The Russians are making some progress in their attacks in the Kiev area (punching in from the west).  Obviously the Ukrainians will need to make some sort of move here to avoid getting cut off.  The Kiev offensive is clearly stopped at this point.  There was an admission by someone in the Ukrainian government that its primary goal was to capture territory that could be traded back to Russia and possibly capture the power plant to be traded back to get Zaporezhia back.

Zelensky continues to deny there is any attempt at negotiations at this point, but there seems to be pretty constant stories that something of that sort is happening.  Who knows.

Perhaps a bit of desperation move on the part of the Russians?

Russian forces have reportedly struck three civilian vessels docked in Ukrainian ports since October 5, likely as part of intensified Russian military, political, and economic pressure to undermine confidence in Ukraine's grain corridor, Western support for Ukraine, and push Ukraine into premature negotiations.

Maybe this is why, or do they really not care?  1000 a day..... a DAY!  Doesn't seem like something that can be maintained for long.

An unspecified senior US defense official stated on October 9 that Russian forces have suffered over 600,000 casualties since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 — a stark increase from a prior US intelligence assessment that Russian forces suffered about 315,000 casualties in Ukraine as of December 2023.[16] The senior US defense official stated on October 9 that Russian forces have suffered more battlefield casualties in Ukraine in this past month – likely referring to early September through early October 2024 – than in any other month of the war.[17] US intelligence reportedly assessed as of December 2023 that the then-estimated 315,000 Russian casualties amounted to nearly 90 percent of Russia's military personnel at the start of the invasion.[18] The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) assessed in May 2024 that Russian forces have suffered over 465,000 casualties since February 2022 and that the Russian daily casualty rate starting in May 2024 was about 1,000 per day.[19]

An oil depot in Crimea has been burning for a few days:

Ukraine hit a Shaheed drone storage areas.  Possibly destroying hundreds of drones:

Sanctions are stalling Russia's Su-57 fighter jet production due to reliance on Western components, particularly electronics. While the US and allies continue delivering F-35s, Russia struggles to build even a few Su-57s. This setback in modernization keeps the Russian air force lagging far behind its Western counterparts.

In reply to aircooled :

I hadn't realized that Russia was using the same initial battle plan over and over again.  Wow.  

And in other news.

The Russian Federation is preparing North Korean troops for a possible deployment to Ukraine - WP

That might become interesting North Koreans that are captured are shown the real world.

MSN.com: F-16 Fighting Falcon from Ukraine Has Shot Down Russian Su-34 Fullback Fighter-Bomber: Report

It remains the world's most successful, combat-proven multi-role jet fighter ever produced

To date, more than 4,600 aircraft have been built since production of the Fighting Falcon approved in 1976

I am a little suspicious of the F-16 shooting down the Su-34.  The Ukrainians still have very few of them (maybe under 10?) and the logistics of getting an F-16 into a shooting position could be very challenging.  The F-16 are certainly being kept in the west of Ukraine with the front being around 400 miles away.  I think Ukraine is not getting the latest AMRAAMs, so they have a range of around 110 km (longer range ones are up to 180km), which means the F-16 would have to sneak within 50 km of the front, at low altitude.  It would clearly be easier to use a NASAMs SAM, which launches AMRAAMs and I believe Ukraine has some.  It could have been another Patriot ambush, but those are not terrible mobile so rather risky.

Either way, the fact that the Ukranians managed to take out an Su-34 on a glide bombing run is pretty big, however they did it.  Having the Russians not know is even better (don't know what to defend for).  If they can do it again, it could greatly reduce the Russians use of them, which would be a huge benefit.  The Russians have been starting to use very large glide bombs (FAB-3000, which is 3000 kg) so they don't need to be terribly accurate to be effective.

One huge disadvantage of of the glide bomb attack is that it needs to be done form a good altitutude (above 10,000 I believe), so the plane is a rather obvious target, if it is in range.

Our Su-34 was shot down. The crew was killed. The airplane was shot down while dropping glide bombs, about 50 km from the front line. Our Su-34 was shot down apparently by an F-16, which was over enemy-controlled territory. 

FAB-300 in flight:

In reply to aircooled :

That really looks like someone took an enormous bomb and strapped wings and a tail to it with 3 giant hose clamps.

GameboyRMH said:

In reply to aircooled :

That really looks like someone took an enormous bomb and strapped wings and a tail to it with 3 giant hose clamps.

You are not wrong.

What I find amazing is that there is enough wing surface for it to glide.

In reply to Noddaz :

Technically it could glide with no wings. Just not that far. 

aircooled said:

 

Our Su-34 was shot down. The crew was killed. The airplane was shot down while dropping glide bombs, about 50 km from the front line. Our Su-34 was shot down apparently by an F-16, which was over enemy-controlled territory. 

On a side note, I absolutely love the Orwellian mental gymnastics that translate "a sovereign country that we've invaded" to "enemy-controlled territory".

wae said:

aircooled said:

 

Our Su-34 was shot down. The crew was killed. The airplane was shot down while dropping glide bombs, about 50 km from the front line. Our Su-34 was shot down apparently by an F-16, which was over enemy-controlled territory. 

On a side note, I absolutely love the Orwellian mental gymnastics that translate "a sovereign country that we've invaded" to "enemy-controlled territory".

I suppose it's better to say an F-16 shot their plane down than the truth that they shot their own plane down. Again.

No link but something in the news.  It seems that Russian soldiers are executing Ukrainain POWs again.

Russia uses rare D-74 guns given to Vietnam and China by USSR - Media * Noddaz edited this to actually show D-74 guns.  But I couldn't decide on stanced or white walls.

link

In reply to Noddaz :

That picture is of a guy holding a mosin nagant 91/30. Maybe a "sniper" variant. Either way, old AF bolt action. 
 

This would have been a better pic since it actually contains the weapon the story is about. 

In reply to TJL (Forum Supporter) :

Indeed.  I was reading the news story and my brain became stuck on Russian forces STILL using Mosin Nagants.  Even if it has a 4 power scope.

Noddaz said:

In reply to TJL (Forum Supporter) :

Indeed.  I was reading the news story and my brain became stuck on Russian forces STILL using Mosin Nagants.  Even if it has a 4 power scope.

That guy is from one of the Donetsk militias and the photo is over 2 years old now.

In reply to red_stapler :

I wonder how he likes teaming up with Putin now?

Zelensky presented his "victory plan" to the Ukrainian parliament yesterday, and some additional details have emerged. From this BBC article:

The plan outlined by Zelensky consists of five key points:

• Inviting Ukraine to join Nato
• The strengthening of Ukrainian defence against Russian forces, including getting permission from allies to use their long-range weapons on Russian territory, and the continuation of Ukraine's military operations on Russian territory to avoid creation of the "buffer zones" in Ukraine
• Containment of Russia via a non-nuclear strategic deterrent package deployed on Ukrainian soil
• Joint protection by the US and the EU of Ukraine's critical natural resources and joint use of their economic potential
• For the post-war period only: replacing some US troops stationed across Europe with Ukrainian troops

None of this is surprising, nor is any of it barring the last point within Zelensky's control, which hardly makes it a viable plan. His adherence to maximalist objectives with no practical means to achieve them is increasingly alienating him from his Western allies (in the same way that unrealistic maximalist claims by Palestinian groups have distanced them from their natural supporters in the Arab world), as well as undermining his domestic support in the face of increasing losses and general war fatigue. Moreover, changes in the international landscape, as discussed in this piece from RUSI, will likely further erode his position moving into next year. The inflexibility of his position, once seen as an asset, is now being questioned, with more voices quietly suggesting that he is now the primary obstacle to ending the war, something that many seem to desire, regardless of the compromises it might entail.

No updates on the situation in the Kursk district.  As posted previously, the Russian offensive seems to be putting the Ukrainians in a vulnerable situation.  This push in from the west also resulted in the murdering of prisoners noted above:

Russian Troops Captured Nine Ukrainian Drone Operators, Stripped Them And Then Murdered Them

...Shortly after capturing the nine Ukrainians, the Russians reportedly stripped them down to their underwear, forced them to lie face-down on the ground—and then shot them in their heads, killing all nine. Imagery from an overhead drone, obtained by Ukrainian analysis group Deep State and posted online on Sunday, seems to confirm the mass execution...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/10/13/russian-troops-captured-nine-ukrainian-drone-operators-stripped-them-and-then-murdered-them/

As you can tell, this is a pretty small area, and as show below has no real roads in it.  I believe the rainy season is starting in Ukraine, so there is (or soon will be) the issue of mud on non-paved road and surfaces.  You can also clearly see below why the Russians attacked here.  The town captured is major road junction for the area.  This map has not been updated in 3 days...

aircooled said:

No updates on the situation in Kiev.  As posted previously, the Russian offensive seems to be putting the Ukrainians in a vulnerable situation.  This push in from the west also resulted in the murdering of prisoners.

Could you clarify what you mean by "the situation in Kiev"? Please & thanks.

In reply to FJ40Jim :

Oh, sorry, I wrote Kiev (the Russian spelling) when I meant Kursk (actually the attack in the Kursk district, it's actually closer to Sumy).   I will correct that now.

I read a bit in the news somewhere that some North Korean soldiers are AWOL from their assigned posts.   Pity.  

Noddaz said:

I read a bit in the news somewhere that some North Korean soldiers are AWOL from their assigned posts.   Pity.  

Perhaps they were seduced by all of the modern comforts and conveniences to be found in today's Russia....

Sure would be interesting if enough NK soldiers discovered how much better life is outside of NK - even in a foxhole getting shot at by Ukrainians, perhaps - and decided to effect a regime change back home. 

Yeah, that is an interesting trend.   Now, some might wonder... wouldn't they stand out a bit, if you know what I mean?  Well, a large part of the fighting appears to be put on the "Russians" (most aren't really) from the eastern and southern areas, and let's just say, that the appearance of the people from those areas was "heavily influenced" by the rather ambitious group of people known as the Mongols, who went on a bit of world tour back in the day, and they were very much asian in appearance (which would likely be Chinese by todays boarders).  There is some crazy stat about what percentage of people in the the eurasian area are related to Genghis Khan, and it's a crazy high percentage.   LOTs of evidence of mongol "blood" all throughout that area.

Language wise?   Yeah.... that's going to be an issue.

Some more comments on the current state of things, which, as noted, seems to be a race to the bottom.   Or a bit of a game of chicken and who will flinch first kind of thing.  Nothing really new here, but seems to be more of a confirmed reality as time goes on:

Russian President Vladimir Putin's current theory of victory in Ukraine seeks to protract the war and posits that Russian forces can outlast Western support for Ukraine and collapse Ukrainian resistance by winning a war of attrition. Russia will likely face serious medium- and long-term constraints that will undermine this strategic effort, however. Putin and the Russian military command have committed the Russian military to a year-long offensive effort along the frontline in eastern and northeastern Ukraine that seeks to exhaust Ukrainian forces and prevent Ukraine from accumulating the necessary manpower and materiel to conduct counteroffensive operations that contest Russia's theater-wide initiative....

Medium- to long-term constraints on Russian force-generation capacity and Russian military-industrial production will undermine Russia's ability to support consistent offensive operations that seek to protract the war and overwhelm Ukraine through attrition. ISW has observed a steady widespread increase in financial incentives that Russian authorities are offering for concluding a military contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), suggesting that Russia is exhausting recruitment pools of willing volunteers.[8] Russian authorities have reportedly expressed concerns that ongoing recruitment efforts are producing diminishing results, and Putin remains committed to avoiding another partial mobilization call-up of reservists despite growing signs of force-generation constraints.[9] Putin retains the option to conduct another partial mobilization wave — as he did in Fall 2022 — but will likely only do so under immense pressure or once the ongoing crypto-mobilization campaign seriously fails. Russian offensive operations in Ukraine have resulted in pronounced equipment losses, particularly for armored vehicles, and Russian military industrial production capacity will likely fail to replace these losses in the medium- to long-term.[10] Russia currently relies on refurbishing a large but finite stock of Soviet-era equipment to replace its outsized losses in Ukraine and appears to be depleting stockpiles at an increased rate.[11] Russia is leveraging partnerships with North Korea and Iran to acquire ammunition and military equipment and is engaging with the People's Republic of China (PRC) to acquire critical components for defense production, but these international procurement efforts will not address all the Russian materiel requirements in Ukraine.[12] Putin appears just as reluctant to conduct a full-scale economic mobilization as he is to conduct another mobilization wave, and it remains unclear if critical bottlenecks and worsening labor shortages would even allow Russia to rapidly and fully mobilize its economy for the war effort in the event that Putin permitted it.[13]

It's kind of looking like the Ukrainians might fall back to protect their gains in the Kursk area.  One significant gain the do have is the capture of the Russian town of Sudzha which contains a gas metering station for a major gas pipeline from Russia (in the map below, where the Brotherhood pipeline crosses into Russia).  The absurdity of this is that Ukraine is still getting money, from Russia(!!) to transport gas across Ukraine (to Romania for example).  War... but money... 

Explainer: What happens when Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine stops?

MOSCOW, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Ukraine will not extend its gas transit agreement with Russia after it expires after Dec. 31 2024, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.

Here is what happens if gas is turned off and who will be affected most.

HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?

Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.....

....Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic metres, according to Reuters calculations.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-happens-when-russian-gas-europe-via-ukraine-stops-2024-10-08/