nocones
nocones GRM+ Memberand SuperDork
12/26/13 7:37 a.m.

I'm 30. I bought a house that sold in 1996 for <100k for 180k 10 years later. The Dow has doubled in price in my lifetime. Classic muscle cars sold for pennies in 1980 and are now worth thousands. People who started jobs 20-30 years before me got to ride these waves and get pensions from work. I'm not putting on my complainypants and think good for the they got incredible returns and many are reaping the rewards rolling around the country in 100k+ RV s and the like.

What I want to know is what is likely to do this in my lifetime/career? I highly doubt the Dow will experience 8-10% growth perpetually during my lifetime but am banking on it as my primary investment vehicle at this time. I don't believe that in 10-20 years I will suddenly posses a 400k home. Cars that are available for $2000 today do not seem destine to be worth 200k in 25 years. What's out there?

yamaha
yamaha PowerDork
12/26/13 7:49 a.m.

In reply to nocones:

After seeing just the past 5-10 years and all the bullE36 M3 included, I've determined I will be working until I die....

Gearheadotaku
Gearheadotaku GRM+ Memberand UberDork
12/26/13 7:52 a.m.

man, I wish I knew....

earning a low wage and seeing 40 get real big in the window does not fill me with hope. I'm on the work till I drop plan too.

yamaha
yamaha PowerDork
12/26/13 8:02 a.m.

In reply to Gearheadotaku:

We should start a political organization to berkeley over our children and grandchildren for our own gain......we shall call it, hammertime

*Not a flounder

DaveEstey
DaveEstey UltraDork
12/26/13 9:01 a.m.

I'm 31. My 401k averages 15% growth.

There's plenty of stuff to take advantage of still, and a seemingly dumber younger generation coming in that will ensure your brains are valued.

novaderrik
novaderrik PowerDork
12/26/13 9:34 a.m.

i've got a diversified portfolio that consists of Powerball, Mega Millions, and the occasional $5 lot of scratch offs..

the short term payout is generally in the negative, but long term it should work out ok..

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
12/26/13 9:43 a.m.

No facts here- just my opinion. Worth exactly what you paid for it.

Honestly, I think in spite of some of the recent changes and "new" ideas, the entire system is reverting to the old fashioned tried and true. Forget new-fangled approaches.

There are great opportunities in rental real estate all over the country (for those who can stomach it).

A well diversified stock portfolio will still continue to grow at (slightly lower than) historical rates. 15% is too high to expect. 6-8% is more likely.

Boomers are retiring. Any industry that sells to them will prosper (medical, retirement housing and communities, pharmaceutical, stuff they like, etc.). They will spend vast fortunes on travel.

Behind that, look to what the gen Xer's will want- technology investment, small modern urban housing, etc.

We will NEVER stop using electricity and other energies. Also look at alternative technologies.

What will put you ahead of others is just DOING IT. Get in the pool, and learn to be diligent about diversifying and investing for the long term. Include overseas investments, and don't focus on US companies- they've ridden the wave.

Zomby Woof
Zomby Woof PowerDork
12/26/13 10:32 a.m.

In reply to Datsun1500:

You beat me to it.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. There will be ups and downs in the economy like there always is, but overall, the trend will remain the same.

How much do you think a mint original Integra type R will be worth in 30 years?

Rusnak_322
Rusnak_322 HalfDork
12/26/13 1:07 p.m.

I read an article about some guy who bought $24 worth of Bitcoins a few years ago and then just sold 1/2 of them for $900,000. Not a bad ROI right there.

Driven5
Driven5 Reader
12/26/13 1:17 p.m.

For every boom there will a bust. For every bust, there will be a boom...Which also means that for every person remembered for making it big during a boom, there is another forgotten for losing out big during a bust. For most people it will all come down to some combination of foresight and luck (or lack there of) that will determine which category each individual will fall into when it's time to cash out.

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
12/26/13 4:14 p.m.

ABANDON ALL HOPE YE WHO ENTER (the workforce). I'll probably also be working until I die

The Bitcoin got-rich-quick guys definitely fall into the luck category...the value of it fluctuates wildly every day, and if you went by the history of wacky "stick it to the man" products and services made by and for libertarians, you wouldn't have touched it with a 30 foot pole.

stuart in mn
stuart in mn PowerDork
12/26/13 6:30 p.m.

Any form of investing is gambling, whether it's in bitcoins or the stock market or Las Vegas...it just comes down to what degree of risk you're willing to accept. Odds are, having a diverse mix of investments ranging from slightly conservative to moderate to slightly aggressive will be the best choice over the long run.

JoeyM
JoeyM Mod Squad
12/26/13 6:36 p.m.

water and energy will be growth sectors

mad_machine
mad_machine GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
12/26/13 9:09 p.m.

I can see water being a growth sector.. we are running out of it in many areas of the world

pilotbraden
pilotbraden SuperDork
12/27/13 11:56 a.m.

Bitcoin has had a handsome increase in value over the past several years.

http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/18/agorism-cashes-in-some-perspective-on-a

speedblind
speedblind HalfDork
12/27/13 5:26 p.m.

Be boring:

Put some money in a Vanguard Index fund every month. Continually add and leave it alone for 30 years.

Buy a house, pay for it in 10 years, make it a rental, continue.

At 60, you have a nice investment in your Index funds and are buying your fourth house, with three rentals. That should provide enough income to retire. The houses are a nice inflation hedge (rent should keep up with inflation) and will provide 3x the mortgage on the fourth house as income.

In 10 years, at 70, you have a paid-for house, three rentals and a bunch of money invested. Bam. Done.

Or, you know, gamble on electronic currency.

JoeyM
JoeyM Mod Squad
12/27/13 5:33 p.m.
speedblind wrote: Be boring: Put some money in a Vanguard Index fund every month. Continually add and leave it alone for 30 years. Buy a house, pay for it in 10 years, make it a rental, continue. At 60, you have a nice investment in your Index funds and are buying your fourth house, with three rentals. That should provide enough income to retire. The houses are a nice inflation hedge (rent should keep up with inflation) and will provide 3x the mortgage on the fourth house as income. In 10 years, at 70, you have a paid-for house, three rentals and a bunch of money invested. Bam. Done. Or, you know, gamble on electronic currency.

truth

Fueled by Caffeine
Fueled by Caffeine MegaDork
12/27/13 5:49 p.m.

I am squarely in the pound 10% plus per year in your 401k And forget about it camp. Make sure it goes to index funds or the like. I don't care much about financial trickery. That kinda stuff always seems to either backfire or take more time than its worth for an extra .001% return.

Mitchell
Mitchell UltraDork
12/27/13 7:07 p.m.

And don't forget to enjoy life along the way. Even if you retire rich, you will have 70 year-old mechanicals.

Curmudgeon
Curmudgeon MegaDork
12/27/13 7:13 p.m.

Yeah, the huge returns on various flavor of the month funds tend to tank quick too. Boring but steady is the way to go on that, as FBC says pound it in there and forget it exists. I'll add give yourself a long time horizon (this means start young!).

Real estate can work well, the trick is to see the future. I've expounded enough on my dad's theory of rentals which stood him in good stead for many years, it raised four boys, bought big fishing boats etc.

nocones
nocones GRM+ Memberand SuperDork
12/27/13 8:01 p.m.

Thanks for all the feedback. I'm not really looking/hoping for a get rich cure all I just don't want to be flogging the tried and true if people really feel the future is elsewhere. It sounds like most feel overall except for real estate there is no reason not to expect decent returns to continue on the classics.

The house is already paid off and the only debt we have is a silly HELOC for the garage because I wasn't patient. We are going to pay that off and then max all 401k type plans. Then when daycare goes away we will have some money to start the in between retirement and 401k plan withdrawal funds. Sounds like Index finds and real estate are the way to go there.

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