When is it time to panic

Robbie said:

 

On a totally different topic, I've heard that some research is showing that some humans seem to have a genetic mutation that gives them resistance to covid19. If that happens to be true, then that is pretty solid evidence that this isn't new at all, only newly discovered.

 

I'm betting right now, that's more a prediction than actual research.  But it's based on solid data on outbreaks- from the plague up to HIV, so even if it's not based on hard data (yet), there's strong evidence to be accurate. 

Ian F said:

93EXCivic said:

Greg Smith said:

Worst case, with ~330 million US population and 1% mortality (I suspect ours will be much lower, but still) we end up with up to 3.3 *million* dead Americans. That's pretty substantial. No, really substantial. Will we get to that? I'm totally guessing (I'm an IT guy with no medical training) that it will be <1 million US, but that may be irrational optimism & faith in our health system. 

A couple weeks quarantine is just going to slow down the process, Since you can spread it before symptomatic, it's really tough to stop the spread. 

That would be with a 100% infection rate though. That isn't realistic.

Even if we go with a 50% infection rate, 1% would still be over 1.2M.  Which is quite a bit more than the estimated 61K deaths attributed to the flu during the 2018/19 season.

No place has seen anything close to 50% infection rate though. How long would it take to get to a 50% infection rate? Years? Decades? How much will be learned and applied toward improving the survivability of COVID-19 in that time? China is currently sitting at 56.1 cases per 1 million citizens after 3 months, and the number of new cases has declined sharply. 5-20% of the US population gets the flu each year,  but there are probably a lot of repeat offenders in that group. People that get the flu more often due to age and health concerns. To get to a point where 50% of the population has had COVID-19, could easily take 10 years.

If we extrapolate China's numbers for cases/1 mil of population, we'd have 18,513 people contract the virus in the US. 1% mortality rate means 185 deaths over the next 3 months. The WHO's most recent estimate for mortality is 3.4%, which would equate to 629 deaths in the next 3 months if the rate of infection and mortality both follow the same pattern as China.

So far, the US is seeing just 4.1 cases per 1 million citizens, but that's expected to climb as more testing kits become available, and some suspected cases are confirmed. Will it climb as high as China's rate of 56.1 cases /1 million? I think the US has some built in advantages that prevent spreading the virus, and that plus the fact that we've had a bit of a head start will lead to lower infection rates, but only time will tell.

https://q13fox.com/2020/03/12/congress-closes-us-capitol-to-public-until-april-1/

I work in DC and I'm expecting orders to stay away from the office just about any day now. Traffic is already noticeably lighter going into town. 

In reply to STM317 :

On the other hand- personal planning for 60% right now is a good thing.  Less drastic than a total shut down, with the good possibility of seeing the same longer term results from China.  And South Korea, for that matter.

Wash your hands, limit contact, contact your health professional when you get sick to get into the test pattern- everything that we can calmly do to limit the spread.

The next month or two are going to suck.  But the rewards for that suckage is quite high.  Or better, the lack of pain for that suckage is quite high.

STM317 said:

No place has seen anything close to 50% infection rate though. How long would it take to get to a 50% infection rate? Years? Decades? How much will be learned and applied toward improving the survivability of COVID-19 in that time? China is currently sitting at 56.1 cases per 1 million citizens after 3 months, and the number of new cases has declined sharply. 5-20% of the US population gets the flu each year,  but there are probably a lot of repeat offenders in that group. People that get the flu more often due to age and health concerns. To get to a point where 50% of the population has had COVID-19, could easily take 10 years.

If we extrapolate China's numbers for cases/1 mil of population, we'd have 18,513 people contract the virus in the US. 1% mortality rate means 185 deaths over the next 3 months if the rate of infection and mortality both follow the same pattern as China.

So far, the US is seeing just 4.1 cases per 1 million citizens, but that's expected to climb as more testing kits become available, and some suspected cases are confirmed.

But China took measures that probably are not possible in the US so I am not sure that China is a great thing to base our thoughts around as far as how transmissable the virus is. I also feel like 50% is probably overstating it but using flu here is bad comparison as there is a flu shot which a not insignificant part of the population has. Also we have some antibodies built up from previous exposures to the flu.

But even if it is 20% and it seems in general about 20% of cases need more care that could quickly overwhelm our health care system. We have even less spare beds and respirators then Italy so a heavy localized breakout could be very bad.

If toilet paper is going to be in such sort supply, would newspaper subscriptions increase?  

I mean, most of the stuff I get in the mail would suffice in a pinch, but newsprint would be slightly more comfortable.  

Robbie said:

How many Americans are "celebrities"?

Maybe 10,000? Or about .003% of Americans? Seems reasonable.

So why do we have a much higher rate of celebs getting covid19?

Even if you only count 3 out of 1500 or so, that's .2 percent. Or 100 times the rate. But I'd argue that the politicians getting it are also semi celebs, so that makes the rate worse.

contact with MANY MANY more people than average. 

Karacticus said:

If toilet paper is going to be in such sort supply, would newspaper subscriptions increase?  

I mean, most of the stuff I get in the mail would suffice in a pinch, but newsprint would be slightly more comfortable.  

I wonder if bidets are sold out?

In reply to STM317 :

The numbers I have seen were much higher mortality than that.  Hospitals being short of staff and beds to handle a large influx of patients is a contributing factor.

I also think we will never have good containment because of people like the guy I work with, who screams and whines that it's just a cold, and a global conspiracy (amongst many countries who otherwise really hate each other)  He also never washes his hands, digs into supplied food barehanded, and smokes like a chimney.  A real "It doesn't affect me so nobody should be concerned" kind of person.

For my fellow Old Line State residents:

93EXCivic said:

I wonder if bidets are sold out?

If your shower is by the toilet you already have one!

Well... this might hit close to home for me, at least as far as work goes.  I've been getting over a cold for a week or so.  Nothing bad - standard cough and congestion.  I seem to be really good at having the worst of it hit me over a weekend and by Monday morning I was better, so I didn't even miss work. 

Today work issued a questionnaire regarding personal health.  First question was about fever, coughs, etc. I have to answer honestly.  This may send me home prematurely (yay?).  And force me to get tested.

We just got notice from our office to work from home until further notice.

It's not time to panic, but it's definitely far past the time where we are preventing the majority of the people in the country from getting this. As a country the USA has done nothing right to prepare for this.

A co-worker of mine told me yesterday that his family had a going away party for a guy from South Africa about a week or so ago with 40 people attending. Guy went home to SA, started feeling bad, went down and got tested and has Covid-19.

Now 14 people from my friend's family have symptoms and are unable to get tested, because everywhere they call they cannot find anyone that can administer a test. They closed all the schools in Westport, CT because of this.

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/coronavirus/westport-closes-schools-after-students-come-in-contact-with-person-believed-to-have-coronavirus/2236576/

As for details of how this thing works...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts&feature=youtu.be

This is a good video to watch. It's an interview Joe Rogan did yesterday with infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm. This guy has spent his whole career chasing down and researching diseases like this and he has been right in the middle of this Covid-19 outbreak research.

A quick summary of the pertinent things he says in the video.

• The virus is airborne and easily spread just via breathing.
• People are highly infectious even before they start showing symptoms.
• Only 2% of children show symptoms, but it's unclear whether they are asymptomatic carriers.
• The outbreak in China is not contained. It will spread again as soon as the government lifts restrictions.
• No face touching is bullE36 M3 and doesn't help prevent the spread of this or other viruses.
• Hand washing and hand sanitizer are good practices in general, but they also won't stop the spread of this virus.
• N95 masks can be effective in stopping transmission, but we do not have enough for medical professionals and they are the ones at high risk that need these masks.

In reply to Harvey :

All of which means, be cautious and aware of your health and surroundings but be mindful of the fact that you may well get it and there isn't (effectively) much you can do about it.  

Fatalism is your friend at this point.

So if the virus does go full monty and infects something like half of the population and runs the above mentioned 1% mortality and we lose 1.5 million Americans over the next 6ish months.  It'll certainly be bad but will it be bad enough to cascade into further problems?  (food shortages, gasoline shortages, economic collapse, opportunistic diseases, etc?)

When is it time to work on the ammo stockpile instead of the tp stash?

Harvey said:

....This is a good video to watch. It's an interview Joe Rogan did yesterday with infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm. This guy has spent his whole career chasing down and researching diseases like this and he has been right in the middle of this Covid-19 outbreak research.....

Does he KNOW this, or does he suspect this.

If what he is saying is true, then he is contradicting what most every other expert is saying.  If the other experts know this (which would be a reasonable assumption if true) then they are lying.  For what reason would they be lying?

Color me suspicious. (which is a bit sad, but has to be the way you approach things these days)

In reply to KyAllroad (Jeremy) :

Those various economic concerns are what is causing the stock market to tank - down almost 2000 points as I type this.  

z31maniac said:

We just got notice from our office to work from home until further notice.

My boss sent out an email this morning asking everyone who did not have a work laptop or couldn't reasonably work from home (mainly, not having broadband internet necessary to connect to our VPN) to contact him, and instructing everying that didn't do so already (like me) to take their laptops home with them every night until further notice. I strongly suspect we at some point will get told to work from home- though I'm not sure how that will apply to those like myself who work in a contractor's office if the contractor is not closing their office and having people work from home (like 5 people out of 150 of the contractor's staff have work laptops- so they can't tell everyone to work from home...).

Quick correction:  The virus is not airborne.  It is described as being transferable via aerosol droplets, which is essentially someone sneezing on you (or on their hand, then shaking your hand, then you touching your face and boom.)  If it were airborne it would be floating through the air and surviving for long periods of time.  If it reaches that point, we are definitely screwed.

This is a good site that keeps up to date statistics from the WHO, CDC, and others.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

93EXCivic said:

I wonder if bidets are sold out?

My strange house has two bidets!  

KyAllroad (Jeremy) said:

So if the virus does go full monty and infects something like half of the population and runs the above mentioned 1% mortality and we lose 1.5 million Americans over the next 6ish months.  It'll certainly be bad but will it be bad enough to cascade into further problems?  (food shortages, gasoline shortages, economic collapse, opportunistic diseases, etc?)

TBH I don't think anyone knows fully. It could certainly lead to a major economic downturn as people aren't working, quarantines are enforced and business can't do business. Also those number would certainly completely overwhelm our health care system which would mean that if you had something else it could be hard to get treated for it.  https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

Food and gasoline shortages I doubt personally.

infinitenexus said:

Quick correction:  The virus is not airborne.  It is described as being transferable via aerosol droplets, which is essentially someone sneezing on you (or on their hand, then shaking your hand, then you touching your face and boom.)  If it were airborne it would be floating through the air and surviving for long periods of time.  If it reaches that point, we are definitely screwed.....

Michael Osterholm (in Harvey's post above) is saying it is, and said it to a lot of people. That is why I am very suspicious of his comment. If he is making that comment without any actual proof that is VERY inappropriate and in reality, dangerous.

Ashyukun (Robert) said:

z31maniac said:

We just got notice from our office to work from home until further notice.

My boss sent out an email this morning asking everyone who did not have a work laptop or couldn't reasonably work from home (mainly, not having broadband internet necessary to connect to our VPN) to contact him, and instructing everying that didn't do so already (like me) to take their laptops home with them every night until further notice. I strongly suspect we at some point will get told to work from home- though I'm not sure how that will apply to those like myself who work in a contractor's office if the contractor is not closing their office and having people work from home (like 5 people out of 150 of the contractor's staff have work laptops- so they can't tell everyone to work from home...).

I'm hoping some good will come out of this in showing that MANY, MANY jobs nowadays can be done from home......at least some of the time. 

The flexibility it offers is huge for so many people. We have enough technology now. As I type this, I'm using ZOOM to be in my third meeting of the morning.