z31maniac said:
aircooled said:
Lots of people trying to figure stuff out and talk things through in a confusing and stressful time when even the experts cannot provide solid definitive answers.
Some who don't discuss things in the most "gentle" way. Also a few people who like to drop in and do there best to disrupt things.
Pretty much all freedoms are contingent on not affecting others freedoms (e.g. freedom of religion yes, freedom to persecute or punish others for not being part of your religion, no).
Serious question:
If the experts can't provide definitive answers, what is to be gained here?
Spreading anti-government/conspiracy type stuff? Because that seems to be about all that's happened for months.
In general: sifting through the information that is out there.
I think it is pretty obvious at this point even "trusted news sites" have a thin grasp on what is good data and data analysis. I find it useful to talk through such things here. Various "news" source also tend to focus on or ignore certain types of information.
True experts, at this point, will not give definitive answers, because there are no definitive answers for some things.
I am not sure about the "spreading anti-government/conspiracy" thing. I have honestly not seen a lot of that here. The vast majority of the conversation is certainly not about those things at least. I, for one, am always interesting in those things at least a little bit though, so I know what is out there.
eastsideTim said:
In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :
Some people just have a contrary nature.
No I don't 
Added later...
Silver futures are up ~6.5% today so this would be a good time to panic.
RX Reven' said:
eastsideTim said:
In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :
Some people just have a contrary nature.
No I don't
Added later...
Silver futures are up ~6.5% today so this would be a good time to panic.
I rest my case
re: silver, it’s very odd for it to be up faster than gold, unless some short covering is going on, or there is some sign of increased industrial demand (which I haven’t seen, but haven’t been paying a lot of attention). Gold is up considerably, but it didn’t spike like silver today, so it doesn’t seem like panic buying of hard assets is the cause. My guess is someone is covering a big short bet, especially since it’s been up for a bit - someone hit their pain point, or the limits of their credit.
Edit: silver is antimicrobial, so maybe it is getting pumped up as an anti-Covid treatment. I try to stay away from the parts of the internet that might promote that, so I have no idea, though.
RX Reven' said:
eastsideTim said:
In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :
Some people just have a contrary nature.
No I don't
Added later...
Silver futures are up ~6.5% today so this would be a good time to panic.
I understand that the stock market is not the economy... But I am more nervous now than I have been in my investing life.
In reply to eastsideTim :
Hipsters rediscovering 35 MM film perhaps?
GIRTHQUAKE said:
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:
So no fear is involved at all? Are they just completely ignoring or not understanding their societal responsibilities?
I think it's denial- refusal to admit they have to change whatever "nice" life they had beforehand because the virus is forcing them to realize how isolated they are.
A frind of a friend is like this. They're a project manager and lead for IT on a natural gas project in Mississippi and he's positive. They won't answer if they're wearing masks, and were fighting with us about how they were taking their temperature as if it was going to change a positive antibody screen and symptom list.
So, I remember the thread about the homeless guy who refused to take care of himself, and violently ignored the doctors' pleas to do simple things, and this is exactly what I am reminded of. "It wasn't a problem before so it's not a problem now and don't you dare try to tell me otherwise."
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:
I understand that the stock market is not the economy... But I am more nervous now than I have been in my investing life.
And for good reason...the S&P 500's long term average P/E ratio is ~15.8 and as of today, it's ~28.02 so the case could be made that the stock market is ~40+% over valued.
But, you're only 30 so whatever happens in the coming months as COVID makes its impact will, at best, be a distant memory when you start drawing on the money.
FWIW, I'm seeing a 20% sell off not 40% as you can't fight the Fed...trillions and trillions in spending matters.
In reply to RX Reven' :
Yeah, they've put more into bond purchases this this year than they did during the great recession, haven't they?
eastsideTim said:
In reply to RX Reven' :
Yeah, they've put more into bond purchases this this year than they did during the great recession, haven't they?
Honestly, I don't know. I'm 56 so I should have a significant percent of my portfolio in bonds (20% perhaps) but I have zero as my mortgage isn't paid off yet...nobody has ever explained the logic of having bonds when you're also a borrower. Why would I have money tied up in a bond when it yields less than the interest on my loan???
RX Reven' said:
eastsideTim said:
In reply to RX Reven' :
Yeah, they've put more into bond purchases this this year than they did during the great recession, haven't they?
Honestly, I don't know. I'm 56 so I should have a significant percent of my portfolio in bonds (20% perhaps) but I have zero as my mortgage isn't paid off yet...nobody has ever explained the logic of having bonds when you're also a borrower. Why would I have money tied up in a bond when it yields less than the interest on my loan???
Just checked, looks like they may have put more (or about the same) into bonds during the Great Recession, but it looks like they had only started to divest them when this all went down. Balance was around 4 trillion then, it’s up to 7 trillion now.
In reply to eastsideTim :
Thank you for researching the bond stats. "A trillion here, a trillion there, eventually it starts adding up to some real money".
In reply to RX Reven' :
Did a bit of looking around - some of the silver price movement appears to be related to rumors about the EU’s stimulus plan. Supposedly going for “green” industry, which does use silver in a lot of its components. Gold has been playing catch-up today, though, so there’s at least some rush into hard assets.
Ohio is going to mandatory masks tonight in public indoor areas, and outdoors in public where social distancing is not able to be done. My county was already under that order for the last few days, it’s just going statewide now.
Edit: regarding the Fed’s bond buying, there is one big difference between now and the Great Recession. They are buying corporate bonds directly this time, rather than buying government debt. This may be more effective (and cut out the banks that helped cause trouble in the first place), but could get really dicey if they aren’t careful about making sure they don’t play favorites as to what they buy, beyond the bond ratings.
According to the Oklahoma State Medical Association, the Tulsa-metro area, as of yesterday, officially has no more ICU beds available.
Obviously, I can't independently confirm this only that's what he has said on his Twitter account and the news has reported it. It makes me wonder if OKC is far behind, because that's a bit of a scary proposition with my girlfriend having RA and me carrying too much weight.
The thought of getting that sick and the hospital saying, "Sorry, we are full up. Go home and hope for the best."
z31maniac said:
The thought of getting that sick and the hospital saying, "Sorry, we are full up. Go home and hope for the best."
I’ve been taking a lot fewer risks during all this for similar reasons, but I don’t have to worry about a chronic condition. I wish you both luck.
eastsideTim said:
z31maniac said:
The thought of getting that sick and the hospital saying, "Sorry, we are full up. Go home and hope for the best."
I’ve been taking a lot fewer risks during all this for similar reasons, but I don’t have to worry about a chronic condition. I wish you both luck.
Thank you.
Here is an even scarier thought, I just spoke to my mother. My uncle is a doctor at a large Tulsa hospital. He said, "It's not even that we don't have enough beds. We don't have enough doctors and nurses to care for more people."
z31maniac said:
eastsideTim said:
z31maniac said:
The thought of getting that sick and the hospital saying, "Sorry, we are full up. Go home and hope for the best."
I’ve been taking a lot fewer risks during all this for similar reasons, but I don’t have to worry about a chronic condition. I wish you both luck.
Thank you.
Here is an even scarier thought, I just spoke to my mother. My uncle is a doctor at a large Tulsa hospital. He said, "It's not even that we don't have enough beds. We don't have enough doctors and nurses to care for more people."
This is similar to what my cousin, an ICU APN in Chicago, told me back in March or April. It is pretty scary.
Chicago has gotten it more or less under control in the sense of our hospitals aren't overridden. Here is to hoping that OK does as well.
eastsideTim said:
z31maniac said:
The thought of getting that sick and the hospital saying, "Sorry, we are full up. Go home and hope for the best."
I’ve been taking a lot fewer risks during all this for similar reasons, but I don’t have to worry about a chronic condition. I wish you both luck.
Me as well.. I have asthma. When it is bad, parts of Texas, NYC, Seattle, LA, ; They were triaging patients for bed's and supplies. This is some third world country stuff and it is scary.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:
z31maniac said:
eastsideTim said:
z31maniac said:
The thought of getting that sick and the hospital saying, "Sorry, we are full up. Go home and hope for the best."
I’ve been taking a lot fewer risks during all this for similar reasons, but I don’t have to worry about a chronic condition. I wish you both luck.
Thank you.
Here is an even scarier thought, I just spoke to my mother. My uncle is a doctor at a large Tulsa hospital. He said, "It's not even that we don't have enough beds. We don't have enough doctors and nurses to care for more people."
This is similar to what my cousin, an ICU APN in Chicago, told me back in March or April. It is pretty scary.
Chicago has gotten it more or less under control in the sense of our hospitals aren't overridden. Here is to hoping that OK does as well.
The State of Oklahoma has a lot fewer resources than a city like Chicago. Fewer hospitals. Fewer doctors and nurses. Not to mention a whole lot less money.
New York City has more resources than anyplace else in the country. Look what happened to them. Corpse hauling trailers are coming to Texas. Not to the big cities like Dallas and Austin, but to the border areas where the poor people are and the hospitals and doctors aren't. This will not be pretty.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:
z31maniac said:
eastsideTim said:
z31maniac said:
The thought of getting that sick and the hospital saying, "Sorry, we are full up. Go home and hope for the best."
I’ve been taking a lot fewer risks during all this for similar reasons, but I don’t have to worry about a chronic condition. I wish you both luck.
Thank you.
Here is an even scarier thought, I just spoke to my mother. My uncle is a doctor at a large Tulsa hospital. He said, "It's not even that we don't have enough beds. We don't have enough doctors and nurses to care for more people."
This is similar to what my cousin, an ICU APN in Chicago, told me back in March or April. It is pretty scary.
Chicago has gotten it more or less under control in the sense of our hospitals aren't overridden. Here is to hoping that OK does as well.
The only solace I take in it is that during this entire thing, the OKC metro seems to be fairing better than the Tulsa metro.
In reply to Snowdoggie :
We also have a LOT less people, but most we are also one of the most unhealthy states in the country. In general though, our population density is pretty low. We are the 25-26th largest city in the country by population, but the 2nd-3rd largest by land area.
z31maniac said:
In reply to Snowdoggie :
We also have a LOT less people, but most we are also one of the most unhealthy states in the country. In general though, our population density is pretty low. We are the 25-26th largest city in the country by population, but the 2nd-3rd largest by land area.
I have many relatives in Oklahoma. My Aunt lived in Tulsa. My Dad studied Engineering at OU.
My father had heart surgery at a hospital in Arkansas near where he lived. He died on the table. That hospital had the lowest National Ranking possible.
After Dad died I brought my Mother down to Dallas. She had heart surgery twice at Baylor Heart Hospital in Plano, ranked number 27th in the nation, then was cared for at the UT Southwestern Geriatric Center in Dallas ranked 20th in the nation. She is still alive at age 89 and locked down in one of the best nursing homes in Dallas. I sometimes wonder if my Father would still be alive if I had taken him down here to Dallas or Houston for heart surgery. Of course it was his choice at the time and he was an old Arkansas boy, so he wasn't going to come down here. When most of our familiy lived in California another one of my aunts was a nurse at Ceders Sinai. She would always have stories about the famous people she took care of there. You better believe those Beverly Hills people got better healthcare than most of the country.
There are a lot of fat, out of shape people here in Texas. I could lose a few pounds myself. The food is too good here.
Still not panicking. Test results came back negative last week. Have a 102F fever right now, living on Tylenol and Gatorade. Not going anywhere, wearing a mask at home for the benefit of Mrs Recon and ReconKids. Feels like I got run over by Ferdinand...
Recon1342 said:
Still not panicking. Test results came back negative last week. Have a 102F fever right now, living on Tylenol and Gatorade. Not going anywhere, wearing a mask at home for the benefit of Mrs Recon and ReconKids. Feels like I got run over by Ferdinand...
The PCR test is only 67% accurate on its best day. Easily just as possible that you have the flu/something else, but wearing a mask inside the house is still a good idea
One of our closest friends got tested today. Cough, fever, no sense of smell... lives in Palm Beach, a hotspot within the hotspot that is my E36 M3hole state. Last saw them 19 days ago, so yay me, but he's a heart patient and she has Lyme. Test results run 7-10 days here on a good day, so they're locking in tight and praying. I hate this.
Margie
