eastsideTim said:
The whole recreating the Soviet Union thing got me thinking. If a good chunk of the cannon fodder is from outlying regions in the Russian Federation, Putin pretty much has to ride this one all the way into the ditch and get most of those soldiers killed. If not, when they come home, there will be a bunch of disgruntled fighters and various governments who think they can do better without Moscow.
The breakup of the Russian Federation is likely to be a lot more violent than the breakup of the Soviet Union.
I don't hold my breath over it only because they've been so heavily weakened by years of abuse, however once-nations like Georgia are beginning to get active again. I think the Tiktok brigade general (the one who shot at Russians forces because they were fighting over who can steal a washing machine, no joke) might be moved back to Georgia to suppress, assuming he doesn't get caught in the current Russian rout. Take this with a grain of salt, but an ethnic Russian I know mentioned that this is kind of how Russia's racism manifests against Steppe cultures.
Kazakhstan is already distancing themselves from Russia publicly. I don't know what this means for the future, they know they'll be in high demand between the "west" and China.
A couple of Newsweek articles about internal divisions in Russia.. (i know, it's Newsweek..) End of the beginning?
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-officials-propose-overthrowing-putin-charging-treason-1741085
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-officials-putin-treason-summoned-police-st-petersburg-1741393
I almost didn't post as I can't find any corroboration anywhere. In any event, I'm surprised Putin hasn't entirely silenced any opposition.
I don't think the Kharkiv offensive is the real offensive (the southern thrust being a diversion), it really seems to be just an indication of how weak parts of the Russian lines are. There very poor recruiting and training practices seem to be catching up to them (social media videos of captured Russians show very young and nieve solders as well as obviously out of shape soldiers).
- Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May.
- Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8.
- Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.
- Ukrainian forces are continuing to target Russian GLOCs, command-and-control points, and ammunition depots in Kherson Oblast.
- Russian occupation authorities continue to intensify crackdowns and filtration measures to curb Ukrainian partisans and pro-Ukrainian saboteurs.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks across the Eastern Axis.
Expansion of the first point above:
Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May. Ukrainian military officials announced that Ukrainian forces advanced 50km deep into Russian defensive positions north of Izyum on September 8, but the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) notably did not issue any statement regarding Ukrainian advances in Kharkiv Oblast.[1] Ukrainian successes and the Russian MoD’s silence prompted many Russian milbloggers to criticize and debate Russian failures to retain control over the city of Balakliya, approximately 44km northwest of Izyum. Some milbloggers claimed that Russian forces fully or partially withdrew from Balakliya in good order, while others complained that Ukrainian forces beat Russian forces out of the settlement.[2] Others noted that Rosgvardia units operating in the area did not coordinate their defenses or have sufficient artillery capabilities to prevent Ukrainian counterattacks in the region.[3] Milbloggers warned about an impending Ukrainian counteroffensive northwest of Izyum for days prior to Ukrainian advances, and some milbloggers noted that Russian command failed to prepare for “obvious and predictable” Ukrainian counteroffensives.[4] Others noted that Ukrainian forces have “completely outplayed” the Russian military command in Balakliya, while others encouraged readers to wait to discuss Russian losses and withhold criticism until Russian forces stabilize the frontlines.[5]
Haven't seen it on any reputable sites yet, but there seem to be multiple reports on twitter that a Russian general has been captured after trying to disguise himself as a lower ranked officer.
In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :
With different ethnicities shuffled around, especially Russians imported into different parts, this could turn into something like a far worse version of Yugoslavia in the 90s. I hope I am wrong, but once one region smells blood and breaks away, I bet a bunch of others will follow.
I think O2 can probably speak with a bit more knowledge on this, but "break away" to what? Not likely to NATO (not likely to let them in for the reason below). Independent states seem like a good option, but they better be able to withstand a Russian invasion.
Obviously, with Russian in a somewhat weakened state right now, it may seem reasonable, but when the fighting stops and the Russians can turn their eye to a less powerful state? Former Russian states will likely get a lot less support from the west. As previously noted, even the fall of the current Russian government is sadly not likely to result in some "better" replacement.
I hate to be super pessimistic about this but... history....
Now, if they all coordinated, and did it at once, taking a bunch of the military with them? ...
In reply to aircooled :
I understand the Russian military is currently more than strong enough to fight off an insurrection, despite their failures in Ukraine, but I wonder how long that lasts as soldiers go back home. At some point leadership isn't going to know whether they can trust their own soldiers. They already seem to be refusing orders in Ukraine. What's the likelihood they'll turn their rifles on someone they consider a countryman? I don't think breakaway republics would even have to coordinate, it could be a rapid domino situation.
I don't really consider this a "good" outcome. As flawed as the Russian Federation is, at least if they are intact, control over nuclear weapons should be pretty secure. The idea of a balkanization of a nuclear armed country is a scary thought. And after seeing what has been happening with Ukraine after they gave up weapons in their territory, no one else is going to just hand them over to Moscow.
In reply to 06HHR (Forum Supporter) :
A snippet from that story.
At the same time, Russian-aligned news outlets spread the information that the Ukrainian counter-offensive operation is a fake PR-action.
Moscow would claim this until Moscow itself fell.
In reply to Noddaz :
Getting some major "Baghdad Bob" vibes from the Russians.
It looks like the Ukrainians are continuing to make some rather significant gains south of Kharkiv and look like they are poised to capture Isyum and Lyman (near where the blue tank and red helicopter are on the map below), two major towns/cities in that area. I am wondering if we will see more exploitation in other areas. If the Ukrainians, for example, can make any gains south of Zaporizhia (these names are killing me), which is directly north of Crimea, the potential of them cutting off the entire western area could cause panic.
It could get even more interesting in the next few days. This is a LOT more aggressive advance then we have seen (mostly probably due more to poor defense than a planned lightning advance)
From update above:
- Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.
At this rate it won't be long before they get in position to cut off water to Crimea.
It's gratifying to see Ukraine ground forces do well. When they were making most of their hay with western missile systems and such I would think. "All this high tech is fine and good, but at some point they're also going to have to succeed in doing the hard work of actual ground combat."
Ukrainian aviation conducted 33 airstrikes against Russian ammunition warehouses, equipment and military gathering points, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report
I am not sure if this is overstated, or the Russians have just lost the ability to resist air attacks near Kharkiv (south west).
This is not entirely current of course. The Russians attempt to reinforce and move troops around are likely to be unimpressive in their results. The rapidity of the northern attack has likely overrun a lot of the Russian artillery support (their primary effective weapon at this point) in that area giving them even more free movement.
- Ukrainian forces have captured an estimated 2,500 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast in the Kharkiv counteroffensive as of September 9.
- The Kremlin is rushing resources to Kharkiv Oblast in response to effective Ukrainian operations.
- Ukrainian forces reached the outskirts of Kupyansk and are advancing on Izyum from the northwest, north, northeast, and southeast as of September 9 and will likely sever Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCS) to Izyum within the coming days.
- Ukrainian forces may have advanced north of Hrushivka towards a Russian logistics hub in Velykyi Burluk, northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.
- Ukrainian forces are continuing counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine, including interdicting Russian GLOCS, degrading Russian morale.
- Russian forces conducted ground assaults north of Kharkiv City and across the Eastern Axis.
- The United Nations released a report detailing poor Russian treatment of Ukrainian POWs and detained civilians.
As noted in previous post: Ukrainian flag raised in Izyum
To give an idea of the advances made, clearly it does not show Izyum in Ukrainian control, but you can pretty much assume any Russian units between the advances show below and Izyum are in disorder and will likely collapse. There supply lines have been completely severed.
I'm reading that the Russian forces have basically collapsed near Izyum and the Ukrainians may be having a hard time keeping up with their retreat. Lots of equipment left behind intact, they didn't even have the time to destroy to keep it from being captured. Soldiers deserting and changing into civilian clothes to try to avoid capture. Hoping this is the hit the entire Russian army needs to collapse, but I wouldn't be surprised if they hold on in the south for now.
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:
At this rate it won't be long before they get in position to cut off water to Crimea.
It's gratifying to see Ukraine ground forces do well. When they were making most of their hay with western missile systems and such I would think. "All this high tech is fine and good, but at some point they're also going to have to succeed in doing the hard work of actual ground combat."
A successful ground campaign requires careful preparation with strategic and tactical air attacks. 
"It is a poor plan of attack that requires there to be losses."
aircooled said:
As noted in previous post: Ukrainian flag raised in Izyum
Is it a bad thing, or just a sign of the forum that I am on, that despite the major loss of life, oppression of people, and the acknowledgment that we have not yet moved past this as the human race, that I still want to know what the car is?
Russian line has collapsed, Izium is in Ukrainian hands again.
The Ukrainian advance in the East has pushed the Russians back 40 miles in four days.
matthewmcl said:
Is it a bad thing, or just a sign of the forum that I am on, that despite the major loss of life, oppression of people, and the acknowledgment that we have not yet moved past this as the human race, that I still want to know what the car is?
It's a Lada Samara. More correctly, a 2108, but I know it as the Samara.
It's... quite terrible.
In reply to Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) :
I'm thrilled to see Ukrainian success but wondering about the cost? ( human).
I hope their success isn't too costly.
Hopefully the Russian forces are just poorly equipped and badly led.
Assuming continued Ukrainian momentum, the next critical moment will come as they approach either Russian territory, or more probably recently annexed Ukrainian territory in Donbas or (especially) Crimea. At that point, the Russian leadership is going to have to make a decision about how to react. If there is no prospect of stopping the Ukrainian advance and loss of significant amounts of that territory seems likely, Russia is in a very tricky spot. Worse, if Ukraine cuts off northern access to Crimea, this will put the Kerch bridge at risk, which means that the whole peninsula could be cut off to Russia. This would be viewed as an unmitigated strategic and political disaster in Moscow, and virtually demands a response. The trouble is, of course, that Russia has few cards left to play, and the ones it holds are deeply unpleasant.
I sincerely hope, against all indications I have seen, that Western leaders will have cautioned Ukraine against moving too aggressively. A successful Ukrainian offensive that reclaims significant amounts of territory and threatens nodes that Russia sees as vital is the perfect launch platform for renewed negotiations (which should be kept entirely private and not even mentioned publicly; this is how the Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved) to end the conflict on favorable terms. In order to achieve a settlement, Russia must be put in a position that allows it to minimize the public relations cost of its failures, while at the same time providing Ukraine with the fruits of victory. This may need to include a wide variety of detailed accommodations regarding future security, Ukraine's international status, elections, protections for ethnic minorities, international control of nuclear facilities, and more. The greatest obstacle to such an agreement is liable to be Ukraine, flush with victory and wanting to finish the job on the battlefield (see MacArthur, North Korea, 1950, for an indication of the problematic nature of this approach).
tuna55
MegaDork
9/11/22 9:31 a.m.
In reply to 02Pilot :
I get your point.
If I am Zelenskyy, I'm getting Crimea back as long as momentum continues.
02Pilot
UberDork
9/11/22 10:06 a.m.
In reply to tuna55 :
Understood that Ukraine sees Crimea as non-negotiable, but the question is how best to achieve that aim without increasing the cost too much. The temptation to do it militarily may be high, but that's going to depend a lot on how preceding operations turn out. Assuming they go well for Ukraine, then it's a matter of determining whether trying to regain Crimea by force of arms as quickly as possible is better than doing so more slowly at the negotiating table.
Lots of variables: How does Russia react to earlier losses? What signals come from Moscow regarding the potential loss of Crimea? Can secret negotiations get off the ground, and if so, how do they proceed? How much manpower have the Ukrainians lost to that point? Is Western support still fairly unified and supplying large quantities of arms? Have Russian efforts to resupply from external sources succeeded?
My inclination is that Ukraine doesn't have the stamina to keep up this pace, and that Russia will recompose its lines when the Ukrainians stop to breathe. That doesn't mean continued offensive success is impossible or even unlikely, but that what we're seeing now is not sustainable.
