History in the Making: Russian Invasion

spitfirebill said:

In reply to AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) :

I have no way of knowing, but I hope somebody in Russia has hidden Pootin's nuclear key.  

I'm kind of depending on the fact that he has a daughter will keep him from pushing the button just because he's having a temper tantrum.

It has been discussed previously, that there definitely a chain of command (multiple people must agree) for nuclear attack in Russia, much like there is in the US, so no big red button that Putin can push in Vodka rage (I don't think he actually drinks hard alcohol).  

There is also evidence that one area Russia has spent a good amount of money on is keeping it's nukes up to date. Of course, there still is that recent track record with their systems, and no guarantee a lot of the money didn't go to some General's hookers and blow.

aircooled said:

It has been discussed previously, that there definitely a chain of command (multiple people must agree) for nuclear attack in Russia, much like there is in the US, so no big red button that Putin can push in Vodka rage (I don't think he actually drinks hard alcohol).  

There is also evidence that one area Russia has spent a good amount of money on is keeping it's nukes up to date. Of course, there still is that recent track record with their systems, and no guarantee a lot of the money didn't go to some General's hookers and blow.

I'd question their delivery systems more than their nukes, to be honest.  From what I understand, they have gone heavily toward the tactical nuke strategy or dial-a-yield style warheads.  

Russia may be declaring war on Elon Musk:

Statement from Russia at UN on satellite use: "Quasi-civilian infrastructure may become a legitimate target for retaliation". It's clear that Starlink has become an important part of Ukraine's command, control and communication system in parts of the country

What are they going to do? Knock his satellites down? 

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

What are they going to do? Knock his satellites down? 

I mean, they could. It would be pretty hard to defend against if they did it over Russian airspace. He would be pissed, but what else could he do? I guess he could buy up a private army...

In reply to tuna55 :

tuna55 said:

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

What are they going to do? Knock his satellites down? 

I mean, they could. It would be pretty hard to defend against if they did it over Russian airspace. He would be pissed, but what else could he do? I guess he could buy up a private army...

He'll just call Putin a "pedo guy"

In reply to Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) :

pew pew pewtin!

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

What are they going to do? Knock his satellites down? 

I would highly doubt it.  Even if they tried there are a LOT of StarLink satellites and they are very small.  I don't really know what they can do, other then jam them (but they need to be close to the receiver for that.  Maybe a focused EMP? (disable them).

It's not like the Russians threatening to do some they either have no way of doing or no intention of doing is a new thing though.

tuna55 said:

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

What are they going to do? Knock his satellites down? 

I mean, they could. It would be pretty hard to defend against if they did it over Russian airspace. He would be pissed, but what else could he do? I guess he could buy up a private army...

There's no better way to initiate Kessler syndrome, but if anyone would be willing to try that it would be Putin.

I'm kind of surprised Russia isn't quietly accepting the use of Starlink, from what I understand setting up one of the terminals makes you a huge target and the Ukrainians don't leave one running too close to people or in the same spot for long because of this. Sounds like the Ukrainians are making them do a lot more good than harm...

I was thinking of the Kessler syndrome also (basically a cascading disaster of space junk creating more space junk by destroying satellites), but the StarLink satellites are in a very low orbit.  It might result in wiping out those satellites (which also tend to trail each other in the same orbit), but I think that junk would de-orbit pretty quick and should be little danger to satellites in higher orbits, or the Space Station, which also sits very low.

Previous ASAT tests have blown debris pretty far from the point of impact, I wouldn't rule out the ISS or other relatively low orbit satellites being put in danger by a Starlink-level Kessler syndrome event.

Still pretty interesting updates:

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine.
• The Kremlin is responding to the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast by doubling down on crypto-mobilization, rather than setting conditions for general mobilization.
• The Kremlin has almost certainly drained a large proportion of the forces originally at Russian bases in former Soviet states since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February, likely weakening Russian influence in those states.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources reported Ukrainian ground attacks northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
• Russian-appointed occupation officials and milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a landing at the Kinburn Spit (a narrow peninsula in Kherson Oblast).
• Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults and are reinforcing positions on the Eastern Axis.
• The Russian proxy Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) is likely attempting to stop its administrators from fleeing ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, demonstrating the bureaucratic fragility of the DNR.

Expansion of the above.  There are a few that are pretty interesting:

Ukrainian forces are continuing counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine, increasingly pressuring Russian positions and logistics lines in eastern Kharkiv, northern Luhansk, and eastern Donetsk oblasts. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces are continuing ground operations southeast of Izyum, near Lyman, and on the east bank of the Oskil River, reportedly compelling Russian forces to withdraw from some areas in eastern Ukraine and reinforce others.[1] Russian forces in eastern Ukraine will likely struggle to hold their defensive lines if Ukrainian forces continue to push farther east.

The Kremlin is responding to the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast by doubling down on crypto-mobilization rather than setting conditions for general mobilization. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov called on all federal subjects to initiate “self-mobilization” and not wait on the Kremlin to declare martial law.[2] Kadyrov claimed that each federal subject must prove its readiness to help Russia by recruiting at least 1,000 servicemen instead of delivering speeches and conducting fruitless public events. Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan echoed the need for Russians to volunteer to join the war effort, and several loyalist Russian governors publicly supported Kadyrov’s speech.[3] The Russian-appointed head of occupied Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, announced the formation of two volunteer battalions on the peninsula in support of Kadyrov’s calls.[4]

The defeat around Kharkiv Oblast prompted the Kremlin to announce a Russia-wide recruitment campaign. Kremlin officials and state media had not previously made country-wide recruitment calls but had instead tasked local officials and outlets to generate forces ostensibly on their own initiative. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov vaguely welcomed the creation of the battalions on July 12, while 47 loyalist federal subjects advertised and funded the regional volunteer battalion recruitment campaign.[5] A prominent Russian milblogger and a supporter of general mobilization praised officials such as Kadyrov for taking the recruitment campaign from the ineffective Russian Ministry of Defense; this recruitment revamp is likely to secure more support for the Kremlin among nationalist figures who are increasingly critical of the Russian MoD, even if the drive does not generate large numbers of combat-effective troops.[6]

The Kremlin has likely abandoned its efforts to shield select federal subjects from recruitment drives, which may increase social tensions. ISW has previously reported that the Kremlin attempted to shield Moscow City residents from reports of the formation of the Moscow-based “Sobyaninsky Polk” volunteer regiment.[7]  Russian opposition outlet The Insider noted that several groups in the republics of Buryatia, Kalmykia, Tyva, and Yakytia (Republic of Sakha) are publicly opposed to the Kremlin's emphasis on recruitment on an ethnic basis.[8] Simonyan’s statement about “self-mobilization” prompted numerous negative comments among Russians calling on Russian oligarchs to pay for and fight in the war.[9]

The Kremlin has almost certainly drained a large proportion of the forces originally stationed in Russian bases in former Soviet states since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February, likely weakening Russian influence in those states. A Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) investigation reported on September 14 that the Russian military has already deployed approximately 1500 Russian personnel from Russia’s 201st Military Base in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began and plans to deploy 600 more personnel from facilities in Dushanbe and Bokhatar, a southern Tajik city, in the future.[10] RFE/RL additionally reported on September 13 that Russia has likely redeployed approximately 300 Tuvan troops from the Russian Kant Air Base in Kyrgyzstan to fight in Ukraine at varying points since late 2021.[11]

The withdrawals from the Central Asian states are noteworthy in the context of border clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Tajik and Kyrgyz border guards exchanged fire in three separate incidents on September 14, killing at least two people.[12] The uptick in violence between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, both of which are members of the Russian-controlled Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), comes alongside renewed aggression by Azerbaijan against CSTO member state Armenia. Russian forces also withdrew 800 personnel from Armenia early in the war to replenish losses in Ukraine, as ISW has previously reported.[13]

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

What are they going to do? Knock his satellites down? 

Isn't there enough overlap between anti-satellite munitions and mid-course defense that he would significantly reduce defensive capabilities long before Musk ran out reserve satellites? I am guessing SpaceX inventory and production capacity is noticably greater than anything Putin can bring in to play.

Seems low-level Russian politicians are getting fed up with Putin now, good thing they probably work in offices without 2+ storey windows:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-war-putin-treason-1.6585186

In reply to matthewmcl :

Considering that Russian military tech seems to take the form of PCs running Windows 95 on 286 chips, I'm not too worried about it.

Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan echoed the need for Russians to volunteer to join the war effort, and several loyalist Russian governors publicly supported Kadyrov’s speech.

And when and where is she joining the war effort?  I am sure the Russians can train her and find her a rifle and equipment so she also can defend Russia against those imperialist Ukrainians.

GameboyRMH said:

Seems low-level Russian politicians are getting fed up with Putin now, good thing they probably work in offices without 2+ storey windows:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-war-putin-treason-1.6585186

Yahoo.com: Most people buried in mass grave in Ukraine's Izium are civilians - police chief

440 dead in mass grave in Izium. Probably equal ratio amounts in every other Ukrainian occupied town. We should put a bounty on the leaders of Russia just like we did for Saddam, sons Uday and Qusay, and the rest of the top of Iraq's government. Remember the most wanted Iraq playing cards? $100,000,000 for Putin, $10,000,000 each for his inner circle, and $1,000,000 for the rest of his henchmen. Dead or alive, preferably just their head on a spike.

Wikipedia: Most-wanted Iraqi playing cards

I'm your huckleberry.

4 footsteps in, 2 out.

matthewmcl said:

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

What are they going to do? Knock his satellites down? 

Isn't there enough overlap between anti-satellite munitions and mid-course defense that he would significantly reduce defensive capabilities long before Musk ran out reserve satellites? I am guessing SpaceX inventory and production capacity is noticably greater than anything Putin can bring in to play.

SpaceX is putting up about 4 dozen satellites a week on average. No way could Russia take down that many - and since they don't stay still, taking out one satellite does not mean you have cut service to a specific area. I doubt they have significant ASAT hardware.

Far more effective to go after the ground or the computers, like the Viacom attack in early days. 

Even India and China have had about enough of Putin's rocking the boat. Time to turn the screws and heat up on India and China. You're either with us or you're against us.

US/China trade: _____$615 Billion

EU/China trade: _____$710 Billion

Russia/China trade: __$147 Billion

Yahoo.com: Putin tells Modi he'll 'stop' the Ukraine invasion he ordered 'as soon as possible' after the Indian leader criticized Russia's war to his face

An interesting thought, if the world at large is spending more money on energy and food it is spending less money on manufactured goods.  Which will hit some countries right between the eyes in their GDP.

Captain Obvious  

In reply to Noddaz :

Maybe that's why Bill Gates and other seriously wealthy people are buying farm land? 
   Granted with the weather and crop prices it's a crap shoot. However  once you have the volume  you can negotiate terms to clients rather than accept spot market prices. Plus with federal crop insurance, you're pretty much guaranteed a profit or at a minimum break even.  
Finally land, they aren't making any more of it. Yet food demand is growing.   So the value of your land is always going up. Young wanna be farmers typically don't have the Capitol to buy major land holdings. Instead they have to break off a piece and spend their life trying to get in the big time.  
Add the age of the typical farmer and there is a whole bunch of farm land coming on the market as us baby boomers die.  8 billion customers and America is the bread basket of the world?!!!!  Pretty solid long term investment.