History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Update

• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announced “partial mobilization” will not materially affect the course of the war in the coming months.
• Putin did not explicitly threaten to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine continues counter-offensive operations to liberate occupied areas after Russian annexation.
• Ukrainian forces likely continued offensive operations around Lyman.
• Ukrainian forces conducted strikes north and east of Kherson City as part of an operational-level interdiction campaign against Russian logistics, military, and transportation assets in Kherson Oblast.
• Ukrainian and Russian sources identified three areas of kinetic activity on September 21: northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border around Vysokopillya.
• Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing crypto-mobilization efforts regardless of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration of partial mobilization.
• Russian-appointed occupation administrators are likely increasing law enforcement and filtration measures in occupied areas of Ukraine in preparation for Russia’s sham annexation referenda.

An interesting highlight:

It is not clear how much of the Russian reserve has already been deployed to fight in Ukraine. Western intelligence officials reportedly said in November 2021 that Russia had called up “tens of thousands of reservists” as part of its pre-war mobilization.[4] Ukrainian military officials reported in June 2022 that Russian forces had committed 80,000 members of the mobilized reserve to fight in Ukraine.[5] The Russian military likely called up the most combat-ready reserves in that pre-war mobilization effort, which suggests that the current partial mobilization will begin by drawing on less combat-ready personnel from the outset.

More clarification on the nuke thing:

-------------------------

Putin emphatically did not say that the Russian nuclear umbrella would cover annexed areas of Ukraine nor did he tie mobilization to the annexation. He addressed partial mobilization, annexation referenda in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, and the possibility of nuclear war in his speech—but as separate topics rather than a coherent whole. The fact that he mentioned all three topics in a single speech was clearly meant to suggest a linkage, but he went out of his way to avoid making any such linkage explicit.

Putin framed his comments about the possibility of Russian nuclear weapons use in the context of supposed Western threats to use nuclear weapons against Russia. He claimed that Western officials were talking about “the possibility and permissibility of using weapons of mass destruction—nuclear weapons—against Russia.” He continued, “I wish to remind those who allow themselves such statements about Russia that our country also has various means of attack...”  His comment on this topic concludes by noting that Russia would use all means at its disposal in response to a threat to “the territorial integrity of our country, for the defense of Russia and our people.” That comment could be interpreted as applying in advance to the soon-to-be annexed areas of occupied Ukraine, but its placement in the speech and context do not by any means make such an interpretation obvious. Nor is Putin’s language in making this comment different from formal Kremlin policy or from previous statements by Russian officials. Putin’s speech should not be read as an explicit threat that Russia would use nuclear weapons against Ukraine if Ukraine continues counter-offensives against occupied territories after annexation.

eastsideTim said:

bobzilla said:

93EXCivic said:

In reply to 02Pilot :

I mean what you say makes sense but neither of us believed Putin would actually invade Ukraine either."

I did but y'all though I was dumb.

Trying not to derail, but I just read the first 15 pages(beginning of thread to when the invasion began), while 02Pilot disagreed the invasion would happen, it wasn't vehement, and no one called you dumb.  I thought it was possible (even likely once Putin backed himself into a corner with his rhetoric) it would happen, but wasn't claiming certainty either way.

It was a joke. I didn't know either way but wasn't going to be shocked. 
 

I personally wonder if their nuclear readiness is anything like their military readiness. If it's been maintained the same way they might have 4 working mussels that will actually leave Russian airspace. 

bobzilla said:

I personally wonder if their nuclear readiness is anything like their military readiness. If it's been maintained the same way they might have 4 working mussels that will actually leave Russian airspace. 

Now you made me hungry.  I like mussels.

bobzilla said:

I personally wonder if their nuclear readiness is anything like their military readiness. If it's been maintained the same way they might have 4 working mussels that will actually leave Russian airspace. 

I'd assume enough of them would be functional.  If they decided to use a single tactical nuke on Kyiv or somewhere else in Ukraine, they'd probably go over it with a fine-toothed comb to make sure it'd work.  If they go all M.A.D., it won't matter because they have so many more nukes than everyone else that even with a 90% failure rate, they'd still do a lot of damage.

I'm still of the belief that either scenario is extremely unlikely.  If the latter one happens, at least I live close enough to enough high value targets that I won't be around to worry about the aftermath.

In reply to eastsideTim :

My understanding is that they've recently done a bunch of maintenance on their nukes. Even if it's the usual E36 M3-quality Russian work, even a 20 percent success rate would be catastrophic.

We've had tactical nukes for...60 years.

If they were an easy answer for a "superpower" on the losing end of a conventional war, why weren't they used in Vietnam, Chechnya I or Afghanistan (Soviet)?

Can anyone think of worse people to conscript into military service than freshly arrested anti-war protestors? This is one step short of trying to press-gang captured enemy combatants.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/22/politics/putin-russia-ukraine-problems-what-matters/index.html

GameboyRMH said:

Can anyone think of worse people to conscript into military service than freshly arrested anti-war protestors? This is one step short of trying to press-gang captured enemy combatants.

Totalitarian states have a long history of placing unwilling participants in uniform and pointing them toward the enemy, but Russia has raised it to an art form. The Soviets figured out a long time ago that it only takes a small number of well-armed, committed loyalists behind a large number of less-well-armed, unhappy conscripts to make the latter figure they have a better chance of survival going forward than backward.

02Pilot said:

GameboyRMH said:

Can anyone think of worse people to conscript into military service than freshly arrested anti-war protestors? This is one step short of trying to press-gang captured enemy combatants.

Totalitarian states have a long history of placing unwilling participants in uniform and pointing them toward the enemy, but Russia has raised it to an art form. The Soviets figured out a long time ago that it only takes a small number of well-armed, committed loyalists behind a large number of less-well-armed, unhappy conscripts to make the latter figure they have a better chance of survival going forward than backward.

Red Army 101: You're a conscript and your Lieutenant will for sure kill you if you stop going forward, the enemy will only probably kill you. Also, if you want a weapon. Or a coat. Or food. Then go kill the enemy and take it, the Kremlin has already billed your family for the cost to equip and kill you. I can't help but wonder what kind of secret squirrel spec ops CoD Tom Clancy ideas have been devised to liberate conscripts and basically give them a "Time Out" area to sit and stay warm without worrying about being shot by whatever loyalists are left.

Just got this press release from Toyota and thought it was worth sharing.

TL;DR: Toyota is going to stop building vehicles in Russia.

Toyota To End Vehicle Manufacturing In Russia

Toyota has decided to end vehicle production at its Saint Petersburg plant in Russia.

On March 4th we had to suspend manufacturing operations at our plant in Saint Petersburg due to the interruption in supply of key materials and parts. Since then, we have been closely monitoring the situation and evaluating the future sustainability of our business in Russia.

During this period we have fully retained our workforce and ensured our facility was ready to re-start production if the circumstances allowed. However, after six months, we have not been able to resume normal activities and see no indication that we can re-start in the future.

The decision to terminate production of Toyota vehicles in Russia is not one that we have taken lightly. Over the last 80 years we have developed our business and our brand with the support of stakeholders around the world. We must now act in a way that allows us to protect the values and principles that our predecessors built up and be confident that we can pass them on to the next generation.

We have also determined that our operations in Moscow need to be optimised and restructured―with the clear objective of retaining an effective organisation to continue supporting the retail network in providing ongoing service to existing Toyota and Lexus customers in Russia.

We would like to thank our employees for their hard work and loyalty. In recognition of their valued contribution, we will be offering them assistance for re-employment, re-skilling and well-being, including financial support above legal requirements.

CrustyRedXpress said:

We've had tactical nukes for...60 years.

If they were an easy answer for a "superpower" on the losing end of a conventional war, why weren't they used in Vietnam, Chechnya I or Afghanistan (Soviet)?

 

 

Mostly because the people running things at those times were a little less unhinged.

Nukes are the "easy answer" in war only in the way that shooting yourself is the "easy answer" in suicide.

bobzilla said:

In reply to 02Pilot :

I mean what you say makes sense but neither of us believed Putin would actually invade Ukraine either."

I did but y'all though I was dumb.

Bob, the older I get the more I learn how I have been dumb through my life.   Hopefully I am learning.  Hopefully.

Back to our usual thread about the Ukraine/Russian conflict.

Just so everyone doesn't think the Russians are the only ones who have been nuke happy.   In reading some trivia about Dr. Strangelove (linked a few pages back, great movie) I ran across this:

Gen. Thomas S. Power, LeMay's protégé and successor as Chief of the Strategic Air Command. When briefed on a RAND proposal to limit U.S. nuclear strikes on Soviet cities at the beginning of a war, Power responded, "Restraint! Why are you so concerned with saving their lives? The whole idea is to kill the bastards! . . . At the end of the war, if there are two Americans and one Russian, we win!"

For those who are not aware Curtis LeMay was known as a very aggressive bomber commander and was well known for his fire bombing of Japan (which was basically for killing civilians)

In reply to aircooled :

MacArthur wanted to nuke China during the Korean War.  I think that was a major reason he was removed from command there.

eastsideTim said:

In reply to aircooled :

MacArthur wanted to nuke China during the Korean War.  I think that was a major reason he was removed from command there.

That's a common misconception but the reality is kind of worse, the military more widely was considering the possibility of using nukes against China:

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/6ygpo0/i_was_taught_that_general_macarthur_wanted_to/

In reply to GameboyRMH :

Interesting.  It'd be scary to live in a world where nukes had been thrown around more casually, as that would have likely led to everyone treating them that way.

Also, that subreddit looks like a rabbit hole I need to avoid or I will lose a lot of time.

Germany raids 24 properties linked to Putin ally Usmanov

AP NEWS

GameboyRMH said:

That's a common misconception but the reality is kind of worse

This quote is basically the entire Season 3 of Blowback.

Update:

• The Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach to partial mobilization may successfully meet the Kremlin’s internal quota of mobilized personnel, but is unlikely to generate effective soldiers and is prompting significant domestic backlash for little gain.
• The Kremlin is openly not adhering to its promised conditions for partial mobilization.
• Kremlin quotas will likely force local officials to mobilize men regardless of their military status and will likely incentivize the mobilization of ethnically non-Russian and immigrant communities at a disproportionate rate.
• The Kremlin likely attempted to downplay a prisoner swap with Ukraine that is deeply unpopular among Russian nationalists and milbloggers by undertaking the swap the same day Putin announced partial mobilization.
• IAEA negotiations around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant are unlikely to significantly improve the situation at the plant and may provide an opportunity for Russian forces to stage provocations.
• Ukrainian forces likely continued limited counteroffensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border and continued attacks toward Lyman on September 22.
• Ukrainian military officials maintained their operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground attacks in Kherson Oblast on September 22 and reiterated that Ukrainian forces are conducting an operational-level interdiction campaign in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the frontlines in Donetsk Oblast on September 22.
• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks west of Hulyaipole on September 22 and continued routine strikes throughout western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian occupation forces are hurriedly setting conditions to hold sham annexation referenda across occupied Ukraine from September 23-27.
• Russian officials created polling stations in parts of Russia, ostensibly to enable displaced (in many cases meaning kidnapped) Ukrainian residents of occupied territories to “vote.”
• Russian occupation officials in Ukraine likely expect to be forced to provide personnel to meet Russian regional mobilization quotas after the Kremlin illegally annexes occupied Ukrainian territories.

aircooled said:

Just so everyone doesn't think the Russians are the only ones who have been nuke happy.   In reading some trivia about Dr. Strangelove (linked a few pages back, great movie) I ran across this:

Gen. Thomas S. Power, LeMay's protégé and successor as Chief of the Strategic Air Command. When briefed on a RAND proposal to limit U.S. nuclear strikes on Soviet cities at the beginning of a war, Power responded, "Restraint! Why are you so concerned with saving their lives? The whole idea is to kill the bastards! . . . At the end of the war, if there are two Americans and one Russian, we win!"

For those who are not aware Curtis LeMay was known as a very aggressive bomber commander and was well known for his fire bombing of Japan (which was basically for killing civilians)

I read an article years ago in the Journal of Military History entitled "It made a lot of sense to kill skilled workers": The firebombing of Tokyo in March 1945 that demonstrated these arguments were accepted across the USAAF and beyond. LeMay was far from a lone voice in the wilderness, though he was one of the loudest.

Unrelated to that point, I find it interesting that Western sources are finally picking up on the fact that Putin is having to contend with not just anti-war opposition, but is now also coming under political pressure from the hardline nationalists. Even in totalitarian states, leaders have to manage public opinion. Putin now finds himself in the unenviable position of losing a war and losing support not just from disengaged, normally apolitical citizens, but now also from his previous supporters as well. It's quite reminiscent of LBJ in 1967-8.

Good points. I've always found it a bit.....dissonant may be the right word, but maybe not, disconcerting maybe? Anyway, how we get all self-righteous about terrorism when even before we dropped the nukes we had killed untold civilians in Dresden and Tokyo. If that wasn't terrorism, what was? 

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

Terrorism is an act performed by nation states not at war. We were very much at war in the 40's. Germany had already bombed english civilians during the battle of britain and set the stage for future engagements. Japan had slaughtered hundreds of thousands of civilians in mainland china and lets not forget the hundreds of thousands of Korean children introduced into the sex slave market for their military. No one in that conflict had clean hands. 

A bit off topic for a second.... but what I find odd is that war atrocities from WWII are always brought up surrounding Germany. Yes, they killed millions of jews during the war. But the Japanese killed between 3 and 10 million chinese during that same time yet that's just brushed under the rug. 

aircooled said:

Update:

• The Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach to partial mobilization may successfully meet the Kremlin’s internal quota of mobilized personnel, but is unlikely to generate effective soldiers and is prompting significant domestic backlash for little gain.
• The Kremlin is openly not adhering to its promised conditions for partial mobilization.
• Kremlin quotas will likely force local officials to mobilize men regardless of their military status and will likely incentivize the mobilization of ethnically non-Russian and immigrant communities at a disproportionate rate.
• The Kremlin likely attempted to downplay a prisoner swap with Ukraine that is deeply unpopular among Russian nationalists and milbloggers by undertaking the swap the same day Putin announced partial mobilization.
• IAEA negotiations around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant are unlikely to significantly improve the situation at the plant and may provide an opportunity for Russian forces to stage provocations.
• Ukrainian forces likely continued limited counteroffensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border and continued attacks toward Lyman on September 22.
• Ukrainian military officials maintained their operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground attacks in Kherson Oblast on September 22 and reiterated that Ukrainian forces are conducting an operational-level interdiction campaign in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the frontlines in Donetsk Oblast on September 22.
• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks west of Hulyaipole on September 22 and continued routine strikes throughout western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian occupation forces are hurriedly setting conditions to hold sham annexation referenda across occupied Ukraine from September 23-27.
• Russian officials created polling stations in parts of Russia, ostensibly to enable displaced (in many cases meaning kidnapped) Ukrainian residents of occupied territories to “vote.”
• Russian occupation officials in Ukraine likely expect to be forced to provide personnel to meet Russian regional mobilization quotas after the Kremlin illegally annexes occupied Ukrainian territories.

300,000 ( or close to it). Just to get them all marching together is going to take a month or so. Let alone turn them into basic soldiers who know how to load and point a rifle. 
    If you want some to come back from their first fire fight and a few more to drive tanks etc better figure 3-4 months before you can point them towards Ukraine and even hope to do anything.  
     I don't know Russian production figures  but Missiles  and grenades probably  take a while to replace stuff they've already lost.  
      Snipers have reduced the numbers of generals and other leadership roles. I'm sure the Russians have  field promoted every semi decent Sargent into at least a Lieutenant so those ranks will be pretty hollow.  
 Face it Russia doesn't have more bodies to lose than the Ukraines have bullets to shoot  so it's not going to be that of battle.  No Enemies at the gate  situation.  
     Figure January or February should see the  results.