aircooled said:They likely didn't target the grid because where going to take the country over in a few weeks, so they would just be destroying what will be theirs in short order.
To be fair, that's pretty much what everyone else was expecting as well.
In reply to 02Pilot :
The russians realy haven't changed their tactics in decades. They're still fighting the germans in he great patriotic war by throwing masses and overwhelming with might. Unfortunaely the populace and troops aren't nearlt as behind this as the were in 1943 when germans were slaughtering their people.
Hey remember this discussion?
Yeah. I had no idea there where that many natural gas tankers.
I also read that Germany has mostly figured out it's energy situation for the winter, but a bit of "hard to tell" moving forward
Germany avoids winter freeze but faces future energy nightmare
A patchwork of new natural gas suppliers should help the country limp through its “winter angst”. But after that, the future of energy deliveries to Europe’s biggest economy is more uncertain.
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/germany-avoids-winter-freeze-faces-future-energy-nightmare-20221014-p5bpt1 (paywall, so can't see full article)
This one is a bit more optimistic (but short)
Germany will be in different situation regarding gas next winter - EconMin
This could get interesting:
The regime’s use of extreme violence against protesters in Sistan and Baluchistan Province is likely entrenching long-term frustration against the political establishment there. One of Iran’s most senior Sunni clerics—Maulvi Abdol Hamid—criticized the regime on October 21 for its brutal suppression of protests in Zahedan on September 30.[1] Abdol Hamid stated that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was responsible for the crackdown, which may have killed over 90 protesters.[2] Hamid is the Sunni Friday prayer leader in Zahedan. Large-scale protests erupted in Zahedan on October 21 in part to commemorate the three-week anniversary of the crackdown.[3] Salafi jihadi militant group Jaish al Adl published a video on October 20, expressing support for the protesters and threatening to attack the regime, as CTP previously reported.[4] There is no evidence to suggest that Jaish al Adl was involved in the October 21 protests.
Unknown hackers claimed to have hacked the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on October 21.[8] The hackers stated that they will release sensitive information about the Iranian nuclear program if the regime does not release all political prisoners arrested in the recent protests by October 22.
It looks like it's a certainty Russia is pulling out of Kherson. Looks like they are also leaving some poor saps to try and slow down the Ukrainians who will likely collapse quickly. I am very curious what the Ukrainian move will be here. Hopefully it is pretty creative. I do wonder if the Russians will flatten the city once they leave (if they even have the munitions to do that anymore).
There are reports of explosions near the bridge in Kherson. They are using barges to transfer troops and equipment across the river (along with some civilians they are "protecting" of course). I am wondering if the Ukrainians are hitting the empty barges on the way back.
It also looks very likely Russia will blow the dam once they get what they want out of the city. This does create a bit of a PR problem for the Russians though. If Russia is taking over this entire territory, why would they destroy a bunch of it (and whatever other side effects it will have). Well, of course, it was not them, it was the Ukrainian terrorists who did it, to zero advantage to the Ukrainians of course.
The Ukrainians are obviously trying to get in front of this (much like the US did before the invasion) and making it very clear the Russians intend to do this.
I do wonder, as questioned previously, what this will do to the water supply to Crimea.
The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated on October 21 that Russian forces are “quite actively” transferring ammunition, military equipment, and some unspecified units from the Dnipro River’s west bank to the east bank via ferries.[1] The Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces deployed 2,000 mobilized men to hold the frontlines and are continuing to shell Ukrainian positions, likely in an effort to cover their withdrawal.[2] Ukrainian military officials reported that the Russian occupation administration is preparing the evacuation of imported Russian specialists, Ukrainian collaborators, and Kherson’s banking system.[3] Russian occupation administration in Beryslav and humanitarian facilities in Kherson City also reportedly ceased operations.[4]
The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson requires that a Russian detachment left in contact hold the line against Ukrainian attack, covering other Russian forces as they withdraw. Such a detachment must be well-trained, professional, and prepared to die for its compatriots to effectively perform that duty. The deputy chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, assessed on October 20 that Russian military leadership may withdraw “the most combat-capable units” from the left-bank part of the region to the right bank of the Dnipro river and leave mobilized soldiers in contact to cover the withdrawal.[5] Russian milbloggers seized on Hromov’s assessment on October 21 and claimed that Ukrainian officials falsely said that elite units like the VDV and marines are being replaced by untrained mobilized men in Kherson.[6] If Hromov’s assessment is correct, then Russian forces would be setting conditions for a Russian withdrawal to become a rout. Russia’s poorly trained, newly mobilized reservists are very unlikely to stand and resist a Ukrainian counterattack if Ukrainian forces chose to attack them and chase the withdrawing forces. The collapse of a mobilized reservist detachment left in contact would likely lead to a Ukrainian rout of Russian forces on the same scale as Ukraine’s rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv.
Russian officials have remained cagey about whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered a withdrawal from Kherson and are likely continuing to prepare the information space for such a collapse, as ISW has previously assessed.[7] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dodged a direct question from reporters addressing the likely withdrawal and directed reporters to the Ministry of Defense on October 21.[8] One Russian milblogger noted on October 21 that Russian forces “will receive bad news from Kherson Oblast” in the coming week and that “November will be very, very hard.”[9] A Russian war correspondent told Russian state-controlled television on October 19 that Ukrainian forces outnumber Russian forces by four to one and that "there will be no good news in the next two months, that’s for sure … severe territorial losses are likely in these two months, but defeat in one battle does not mean losing the war.”[10]
And in the meantime, Russia is going to bomb Ukraine back into the stone age.
Looks like Russia is having another missile launch spasm. Ukraine is apparently doing a decent job shooting them down. The electrical grid seems to be the common target.
Kind of seems like things are about to happen, likely as the result of the need for Russia to get out of Kherson and the need to have an excuse they can sell internally.
I forget all the missile intercept systems Ukraine now has, but it also includes IRON DOME. Says a lot about the failure of the invasion when Russia's building defenses INSIDE Russia.
Purportedly there's a full pullout of Keherson underway now. They cut the internet to try and lower outside communication but it's all over telegram as usual- Ukraine is full OPSEC so we won't know specifics for a bit.
Pretty sure Israel, as of yet, will not sell them Iron Dome. Which is kind of BS, since the US payed for a lot of the development and ongoing use costs.
Looks like the Iran hackers followed through with the threat:
Hacktivists Release Iran Nuclear Documents After Deadline
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202210225387
Still looking for a russian long term plan.
Yeah, destroying all infrastructure and freezing/starving millions of people is going to cement your reputation as a rabid dog. The problem is, you have proven to the world that you are a rabid dog and there are now millions of refugees around the world who are able to prove that you are a rabid dog and they will be very vocal. Rabid animals are not redeemable.
So, say that russia is successful beyond belief and ALL civilians left the country. The Western world is now on notice that there is no atrocity that a russian wont commit. Western military technology comes with it's own infrastructure when required, so lack of a local power grids is not going to hobble the killing of russians. Civilians are gone but Uraine military will still be in place. With Ukrainian forces having nothing to do but kill under-equiped cold and hungry russians with poor morale. I do not see this ending well for the russian soldiers by the time spring rolls around.
Russian demographics were pretty messed up before this started. Now they are busy killing the group that is meant to be the seedcorn for the next generation.
A lot of us here are guilty of starting projects that dont go to plan, but this is not something that putin can sell as an unfinished project on marketplace. I would to know what rosy end game putin had for his project.
Noddaz said:And in the meantime, Russia is going to bomb Ukraine back into the stone age.
?? A handful of rockets is bombing them into the stone age? This is nothing compared to the bombing done in WWII, mostly done by the US and Britain. Or what we did to North Vietnam with B52s.
I agree that we should be appalled, but lets not get carried away with the conjecture.
alfadriver said:Noddaz said:And in the meantime, Russia is going to bomb Ukraine back into the stone age.
?? A handful of rockets is bombing them into the stone age? This is nothing compared to the bombing done in WWII, mostly done by the US and Britain. Or what we did to North Vietnam with B52s.
I agree that we should be appalled, but lets not get carried away with the conjecture.
No dis-respect, but if you take out the electrical grid and electric production Ukraine will be knocked out of modern life. Maybe not the stone age. Maybe that was a poor choice of metaphor. How about bombed back to the middle ages. Or maybe bombed back to pre-industrial times.
At least there is a lesson to be learned here from history that Russia should probably reference. What the US did to North Vietnam didn't work.
In reply to Noddaz :
It's also reparable. Which is why russia has to keep targeting it. It's not permanent, like people dying.
No, what we did in Vietnam didn't work, and for the most part, it didn't have the intended results in Germany, too. How Ukrainians are reacting is exactly how the British reacted during Battle for Britain and how the Germans mostly reacted during the strategic bombing of them- it hardens them to fight more.
But the scale of what russia is doing is more like the V2 bombing of Britain- which was terrifying, but mostly pointless.
Germany came back from pariah status. So did Japan. Vietnam also seems to be back in the fold.
Will russia pull if off?
NOHOME said:Germany came back from pariah status. So did Japan. Vietnam also seems to be back in the fold.
Will russia pull if off?
Not as long as Putin is at the reins.
Update from our missionaries said that they Ukrainian authorities are recommending that people prepare for long term power outages. Have extra food, water, and alternate heating ready, etc. It seems to me that they know that fighting won't be the threat, it would be the power outages with the associated issues.
So... the Russians are warning that that Ukrainians are planning a false flag dirty bomb attack (blaming Russia). Which likely means the Russians are planning a dirty bomb attack and want make it look like the Ukrainians did the attack to make it look like the Russians did it.... argh.
Sounds like someone is getting desperate and it's not that overweight guy at the end of the bar at 2:00 am....
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu likely sought to slow or suspend Western military aid to Ukraine and possibly weaken the NATO alliance in scare-mongering calls with several NATO defense ministers on October 23. Shoigu separately called his counterparts from France, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States on October 23, claiming that Ukraine is preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb (a conventional explosive laced with radioactive material that is not a nuclear weapon) to accuse Russia of using weapons of mass destruction.[1] Russian state media amplified this false and ridiculous claim.[2] Russian Ministry of Defense reports on the calls contain slight differences; they state that Shoigu discussed a claimed “steady tendency towards further, uncontrolled escalation” in Ukraine in the call with his French counterpart; discussed the “situation in Ukraine” and made false claims that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb in his calls with the United Kingdom, France, and Turkey; and simply discussed the situation in Ukraine without reference to a dirty bomb in his conversation with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Shoigu last spoke with Secretary Austin on October 21. Representatives from the United States, United Kingdom, and Ukraine categorically denied and condemned Shoigu’s false allegations, and US Secretary Austin called his UK counterpart, Ben Wallace, following the calls with Shoigu.[3] France and Turkey have not issued formal statements as of this writing.
The Kremlin is unlikely to be preparing an imminent false-flag dirty bomb attack. Shoigu’s claims further a longstanding Russian information campaign. The Kremlin has repeatedly claimed that Western states will help Ukraine conduct a false-flag WMD attack since the earliest stages of its invasion of Ukraine in February. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed it had information the US was “preparing provocations to accuse the Russian Armed Forces of using chemical, biological, or tactical nuclear weapons” in April.[4] Putin claimed in his pre-invasion speech on February 24 that Ukraine was preparing for a nuclear attack against Russia, and Russian state disinformation outlets repeatedly claimed Western states were supporting Ukraine’s development of nuclear weapons and planning false-flag attacks.[5]
Shoigu’s claims likely do not portend Russian preparations to use non-strategic nuclear weapons in Ukraine either. ISW previously stated on September 30 that “ISW cannot forecast the point at which Putin would decide to use nuclear weapons. Such a decision would be inherently personal, but Putin’s stated red lines for nuclear weapon use have already been crossed in this war several times over without any Russian nuclear escalation.”[6] Russia does not “need,” under formal Russian nuclear doctrine, a further event to justify nuclear weapons use.[7] Ukraine is not apparently on the verge of tripping some new Russian redline, on the other hand, that might cause Putin to use non-strategic nuclear weapons against it at this time. Shoigu’s comments are thus unlikely to presage a nuclear terror attack against one or more major Ukrainian population centers or critical infrastructure in hopes of shocking Ukraine into surrender or the West into cutting off aid to Ukraine. Such attacks would be highly unlikely to force Ukraine or the West to surrender, as Ukraine’s government and people have repeatedly demonstrated their will to continue fighting, and the West would find it very challenging simply to surrender in the face of such horrific acts because of the precedent such surrender would set.
Serious question here: Does anyone - that is, anyone who has any say over the matter - have any incentive to stop this war right now?
Putin has no incentive to end it, because if he does, he'll likely be dead, or at least, no longer in his current position. Same for pretty much any Russian official or general.
Zelenskyy has no incentive to end it, because he's getting international attention and tons of money and fame.
The United States has no incentive to end it, because politically it would be disastrous to have sent them all these weapons and supplies and then take anything that might be construed as less than a win.
The oil+gas companies have no incentive to end it, because it's keeping prices high, and Russia out of the West's oil+gas markets, so the money is rolling in for them.
The defense supply companies never have any reason to end war.
So, basically, nothing is going to end this war, right now.
In reply to volvoclearinghouse :
It's always an important question to ask, and while I agree generally with your overall conclusion, I would dispute some of your reasoning.
Taking Clausewitz's dictum that "war is policy by other means" as a starting point, the basic formulation for combatants is that they will want to keep fighting as long as they think they have a chance to gain at least some of their policy objectives. Once that becomes impossible, or if losses incurred have rendered it so, there will generally be a move for a settlement; note that this may require (and indeed compel) a change in leadership. Zelensky certainly has no motivation to stop at this point. As for Putin, he may still be hoping to salvage something - perhaps international acknowledgment of some territory as a part of an overall treaty - by playing for time and hoping that calls to end the fighting grow louder in the West. There is also the consideration of his own position, of course - how long he can maintain it in the face of poor performance in Ukraine is anyone's guess.
The US and supporting NATO countries are the question mark here, I think. There is a slow but clear movement away from unconditional support for Ukraine, and some are now calling for a negotiated settlement directly with Russia, in part due to the length of the war and the losses incurred, in part due to the ongoing threat of escalation, and in part due to the enormous financial drain on Western resources in a time of economic scarcity. Appalled as Ukraine and its more vocal supporters might be by this suggestion, it highlights the utter dependence of Ukraine on the West. As I've noted here before, the US and others that have kept Ukraine a viable factor in this war are the ones who will be calling the shots (barring a sudden battlefield or political resolution). I expect there will come a time when the US advises Zelensky that time's up and he either sits down to negotiate or the US will do it without him.
The petro companies will want to avoid government intervention in their business, so if prices stay too high for too long, they may start to get nervous. The defense industries have already set their course for years; because most of the aid sent has been from existing stocks, they haven't gained a great deal in the short term, but stand to benefit from both the need to replenish Western arsenals, and the almost certain increase in demand brought on by rising tensions.
I think that as long as Russia's got millions of dead Ukrainians on their tab and the conventional wisdom in Europe is that "if someone had stood up to Hitler immediately" instead of waiting for Poland you're going to have a tough time getting the EU/NATO to settle this with anything less than iron-clad guarantees of no attempts of Russian expansion in the future.
There's fears from Ukrainian friends I now have that Kherson is going to become Mariupol 2.0, but Andrey Yermak says there's soon to be good news- and the last time there was, Ukraine liberated a region the size of Delaware.
Frankly we haven't even spent that much supporting Ukraine- most of the weapons we've sent was literally built for this war against 80s technology, and it was all coming close to it's end of life and usefulness in storage. Still nothing cheap, but it was literally going to waste otherwise. There's other benefits as well with the captures of Russian SIGNT vehicles, that T-80BV (?) that was fresh in it's factory netting, Iranian combat drones... lots of equipment we have better ideas of what it can do and how we can build countermeasures against. Knowing how fast an enemies drone is can be a powerful thing.
Zelenskyy has no incentive to end the war because his people are being actively tortured by Russia, he was invaded, and now the invader is literally robbing everything of worth from the captured regions. Now that Ukraine is genuinely winning the conflict now there's another axis- Ukraine at the end of this will be a bulwark, a Minor power who asserted itself successfully on the world stage that now has a professional and very skilled military. Is it totally possible that soon we'll see them at the negotiation table? Of course! But I doubt we will see a serious outreach to any Russian Fascist until they are dealt a loss that they cannot quickly recoup and recover from, i.e. there's no risk that during a peace talk that Russia can use the time to rest and refit depleted units, or attempt something like this dirty bomb they're obviously trying to engineer.
Also, Oryx reports russian armor losses for this war are up to 7,500 vehicles.
In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :
Imho, if there is real leadership change in Russia, the recovery will be allowed to be fast, like it was for Germany and Japan. Seems unlikely to happen though.
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