History in the Making: Russian Invasion

eastsideTim said:

Stampie said:

My experience with this is old as it's been 25 years but I assume they have INS.  Older INS would spin a mass like a gyroscope and as the plane moved the unit would measure the forces from the gyroscope to tell the acceleration in different directions. Pretty simple math. I know the Special Ops C130s I worked on went ring laser INS in the mid to late 90s. Somehow really smart people figured out how to do the same thing by measuring the defection of lasers. I remember a Lockheed engineer saying we could fly across country and park the nose wheel within 6 inches of the mark just using the ring laser INS. Surely that has advanced in the last 25 years. 

From my (limited) reading, any laser guidance would require more extensive modifications to Ukrainian aircraft, as would being able to select a target while airborne.  Supposedly, the planes that have already been adapted for HARMs would require minimal work to launch JDAMs, as long as the target was selected beforehand.

That's different.  INS stands for Inertial Navigation System.  Back then it was a box 1 foot square by 18 inches deep.  I assume the ring laser could be smaller but it was a simple one for one component swap so it had to fit into the same space as the older gyroscope ones.  It was a totally internal system so jamming wouldn't work.  IIRC you inputted your position (nose wheel mark on the flight line) before flight and from there it could tell where you were in the world with no other input. What you're thinking of is the bombs that follow a laser that's marking the target.  Here's a good explanation of the ring laser INS.

https://aerospace.honeywell.com/us/en/about-us/blogs/how-does-ring-laser-gyroscope-work

GPS operate in the noise realm; that is why there are no complicated treaty issues with broadcasting all over. The signal processing in the GPS filters the time data and satellite ID out of the noise. New GPS gets signals where old GPS did not, not because the antenna is better, but because the signal processing is better.  I think jamming would take creation of fake signal data, complete with the satellite ID. Not impossible or perhaps even difficult, just not something that necessarily takes significant power output to create or to protect against.

I am uncertain how the military precision part plays into that. There is additional encoding of the data there (I think,among other data updates, etc.) that assist with greater precision. Does Russia have the ability to jam all GPS, or just systems running on their own constellation, and therefore not applicable to equipment running on the US constellation?

Note on GPS: General GPS is hard to get tighter than +/- 10 feet, partly because the axis of rotation of the planet moves around by that much with changing tides and weather. Tracking expected lunar position (and estimating tide effects) is easy enough to work in, but the weather part takes continual updates.

Another Russian missile spasm:

Ukrainian air defense shot down 60 of 76 Russian Kh-101 and Kalibr missiles today

Updates:

• Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine—possibly against Kyiv—in winter 2023. Such an attack is extraordinarily unlikely to succeed.  A Russian attack from Belarus is not imminent at this time.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not changed.
• Putin is using two simultaneous military efforts to pursue his objective of conquering Ukraine and securing major concessions.
• Putin is likely setting conditions for a renewed offensive before the spring of 2023 to coerce Ukraine into offering concessions.
• Russian forces may be setting conditions to attack from Belarusian territory, although ISW continues to assess that the Belarusian military will not join the fighting in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas.
• Russian forces continued defensive operations south of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine.
• The Russian officer corps continues to suffer heavy losses in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian partisans conducted a sabotage attack on a power transformer substation in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast.

The Ukrainian military has recently warned that Russia is planning a winter attack from Belarus.  As noted above, it seems unlikely.  One of the big issues with a northern attack is shown below.  The ground between the two countries is not exactly ideal for an attack.  Of note of course the initial attack came through here, when Ukraine was generally less prepared, and that didn't really work out well.

As an aside, I wonder if Malaryta in the map above has anything to do with Malaria. With all those swamplands, it would seem to be good conditions for that, come summer.

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

I don't think so. The Ryta River flows near there, and "mal-" in many Slavic languages denotes small. I suspect it's more likely derived from those than the Latin-based "malaria" (meaning "bad air" in Italian), though it certainly would be appropriate.

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

As an aside, I wonder if Malaryta in the map above has anything to do with Malaria. With all those swamplands, it would seem to be good conditions for that, come summer.

The name Malaria actually comes from words meaning "bad air," because the first people who contracted it thought it was humid soupy jungle air that was giving it to them rather than the mosquitoes flying (swimming?) around in it. An understandable mistake, but generally it only feels like that air is killing you

In reply to aircooled :

Will the marshes freeze hard enough in the winter to allow equipment transport?  I have known people in Alaska that have cabins that are only accessible in the winter time; you have to wait for the mud to freeze.

Yes it certainly should freeze, essentially a giant shallow lake.   Then of course you have to ask you self:  "So, how thick does ice need to be to drive a 40 ton T-72 over it"?  Marshes also tend to be rather tree filled, which is not generally ideal for vehicle travel.

I am sure it could be done, just not easily. 

Here are some pics from the Google of those swamps:

A little off-topic, if you have Netflix, Letterman's show "My next Guest" just had Zelenskyy on. If you didn't have respect for him at the beginning, you'll have a ton for him now.

I will have to take a look at that.  Also for perspective, I think Netflix still has the show he was on in Ukraine Servant of the People, which if nothing else, gives a bit perspective on what Ukraine was like before the war (it is a comedy, so don't expect serious portrayal).

Strangely of course, the show is about a regular guy who essentially unintentionally gets elected president of Ukraine!

aircooled said:

 

Strangely of course, the show is about a regular guy who essentially unintentionally gets elected president !

That's an interesting concept.

Updates:  Of interest is the possible indication of the Russians pulling forces from the area near Kherson.  This is likely (if true) to either reinforce Melitopol or to help avoid them being cut off if the Ukrainians attack south into Melitopol, as they have been highly telegraphing they will do.  I do wonder about the Ukrainians making it rather clear they will attack Melitopol.  Either this is a brash "we are doing this and there is nothing you can do to stop us" kind of thing, which is a potential moral killer for the Russians, or is it a "look at this hand, while I punch you with this hand" kind of thing?

• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) representative Andriy Yusov reported that the Russian military received a new batch of Iranian-made drones and continues to negotiate with Iran on the acquisition of ballistic missile systems.[17]
• Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that positional fighting continued along the Svatove-Kremmina line.[18]
• Ukrainian and Russian sources reported ongoing fighting in the outskirts of Bakhmut and to the northeast and south of the city.[19] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces captured Yakovlivka, Donetsk Oblast, northeast of Soledar.[20]
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces dislodged Russian forces from long-held positions near Bakhmut.[21]
• A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces are redeploying units from the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast and that it is too early to tell whether Russian forces are withdrawing.[22] Russian and Ukrainian forces continued routine artillery and rocket strikes across the Dnipro River.[23]
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck two Russian force concentrations and two ammunition depots in Zaporizhia Oblast on December 16, injuring 150 personnel and destroying 10 pieces of equipment.[24] Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov stated that Russian forces are placing dragon’s teeth anti-tank defenses in Melitopol.[25]
• Russian forces and occupation authorities continue to struggle to address a severe shortage of medical personnel and supplies.[26]

I wonder how much easier it would be for Russia to annex Belarus at this point.  I realize that Russia and Belarus are on the same "side" but if Putin annexed Belarus just what could Alexander Lukashenko do?  Think of all the extra personnel and equipment Putin could pick up with the stroke of a pen.  

My 2 cents is that would be a lousy idea. Why make more enemies when You already have access through their land?

Let's see how pro-Poopin the Belorussians are after being sent to the front lines. How pro-Poopin are the eastern Ukrainian separatists now after they where rounded up and sent to the front lines?

VolvoHeretic said:

How pro-Poopin are the eastern Ukrainian separatists now after they where rounded up and sent to the front lines?

Now that's an interesting thought to consider...  

Wasn't there an uprising in Belarus in 2020? If Putin tries to takeover or force Belarus to attack Ukraine, I am wondering just how well that would go over with the local population. Is the Belarus military viewed as a heavy duty police force to control local population, or is it viewed as a functional military capable in conducting invasions? 

Vehicle exploded at Chonhar, possible as result of a missile strike

Which is interesting, considering where Chonhar is.  It's one of the narrow connection points between Crimea and the mainland.   What sort of "missile" was this?   Perhaps a partisan attack, but they seem to think it was a missile.   Maybe a Javelin? (which attacks from the top)

As you can also see in the map below, Melitopol is within HIMARS range of the Ukrainians lines north of it.

An interesting, if not a bit depressing assessment:

------

US policy should recognize that the Kremlin’s intent regarding Ukraine is maximalist, inflexible, and will not change in the foreseeable future. The West should stop expending resources trying to change a reality it does not control and focus on what it can shape plenty: denying Russia’s ability to wage a war against Ukraine.

Negotiations, ceasefires, and peace deals are not off-ramps but rather on-ramps for the Kremlin to renew its attack on Ukraine in the future under conditions that advantage Russia. They are means to the same ends—full control of Ukraine and eradication of Ukraine’s statehood and identity.

The vital US interest in preventing future Russian attacks on Ukraine can be best achieved by denying Russia the capability to carry out those attacks. The immediate requirement is preserving Ukraine’s momentum on the battlefield—accounting for a possible renewed offensive from Russia this winter—to ensure that Ukraine secures the most advantageous position possible. The West should also eliminate Russia’s ability to attack Ukraine in the future, including by denying Russia a military foothold in Ukraine from which to launch attacks, resisting "peace" deals that the Kremlin will use to buy time to reconstitute its forces, not empowering the Russian defense industrial complex with access to Western markets, and committing to building Ukraine's defensive capabilities over the long term.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intent toward Ukraine has not changed and likely never will. Putin’s intent will most likely outlast him—by design. Russia will use any territory it keeps in Ukraine to stage future attacks.......

Full text here:  https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/target-russia%E2%80%99s-capability-not-its-intent

In reply to aircooled :

As slightly more than a year has passed, and with the spirit of year in reviews being so popular at this point of a year, would you care to review post one and comment on what has and has not come to pass?

That is rather depressing. It's like Putins Russia realizes that the west has better schools, better economies and better long-term prospects, has given up on competing in the modern technological world and is instead relying on old school tactics of natural resource exploitation, bullying and conquest. "I may not be smarter than you, but I'm bigger and am willing to be an ongoing pain in the ass." I think that you also have to consider that Putin and most of his closest hangers-on are old and increasingly frail. They're not going to last through trying something different, and they're surely not going to pull off something like the Finnish miracle which took at least 40 years to really happen. 

In so many ways our world has gotten better. A far smaller percentage of people die via war, hunger and pestilence than in recorded history. It just seems like there's this bedrock resistance to a worldwide golden age on the part of various despots, controlling their chunks of the world by means of real or threatened violence, ignorance and/or religion. 

In reply to aircooled :

The fundamental issue with that analysis is that it assumes preventing Russian attacks on Ukraine is in and of itself a vital US interest; it is not, in the same way that preventing American attacks on North Vietnam was not a vital Soviet interest. And if Russia's aims toward Ukraine are so maximalist that they will remain unchanged in perpetuity, then the whole exercise is relatively futile (I don't buy this analysis, BTW). Quite frankly, the best way to keep Russia from building up its strength is to prolong the war, giving Ukraine enough material to keep fighting, but not enough to win outright or extend the war by allowing the US and NATO to be drawn in.

Now, it might be that a fundamental US interest is limiting Russian power, particularly in the Black Sea region, and supporting Ukraine is a means to that end, but a settlement such as I have suggested before - a neutral Ukraine, with a Western-oriented economy (and relatively unfettered access to Western markets), and a Western-armed military oriented toward defense - could be a more effective way of achieving that goal, for a longer period and at less expense. Denying access to Western markets and technology is a useful tool for controlling Russia's short-term military development, but it's hardly foolproof, given that there are other, friendlier nations that will certainly supply Russia once the fighting has died down (or the West has stopped paying attention).

Would Putin like to reclaim Ukraine and suppress the independent Ukrainian identity? Sure, the same way Stalin wanted to. It didn't work then - even with full territorial control for 70 years and starving a substantial chunk of the population to death - and it won't work now. But that's about control of the territory and Russian security, both domestic and vis a vis the West, not genocide; it's a means to an end. Finding a way to allay Russian long-term security concerns (no matter how misguided or paranoid they might be) and secure an independent Ukraine is complicated and difficult, but not impossible, and certainly not undesirable.

Rons said:

In reply to aircooled :

As slightly more than a year has passed, and with the spirit of year in reviews being so popular at this point of a year, would you care to review post one and comment on what has and has not come to pass?

Interesting.  OK.

I will say, as is pretty obvious to most, the general failure of the Russian military "might" is likely the biggest surprise.   The corruption on multiple levels, moral, operational and material have all combined to make the Russian military a shadow of what it pretended to be (be careful about believing marketing).  In retrospect, and learning more about how the Russian military in general works, it not a huge surprise, but a year ago, the marketing worked.

The effective destruction of what was generally considered the most elite unit of the Russian military, the airborne forces, or VDV, at Hostomel airport outside Kyiv I think was a prime example of this.  Arrogance and over confidence seemed to rule the day in the Russian military.

More specifically, I was surprised as to that general ineffectiveness of the Russian (tactical) air force.  Normally, you would expect an overwhelming capture of the airspace by the Russians (which they basically did) and then exploitation of that freedom with massive tactical air support, which did not seem to happen and is a major component as to why things have become far more static. I think much of this is related to the general Russian (and Ukraine by extension) focus on air defense rather then offense, because of the US focus on air power, and that of course is who they are designed to fight.  I am sure the general dysfunction of the Russian tactical air force has a huge roll here also.

There of course is the reduction in effectiveness of tanks in general.  The initial attacks made it far worse by surging forward unsupported tanks.  The rapid distribution of anti-tank rockets made this even worse.  The days of tanks spear heading a blitzkrieg style attack (as opposed to the light vehicle thunder run that Ukraine did at Kharkiv), seem to be gone(?)

I also have to say, one of the biggest surprises is the collapse of the Russian military seems to be perpetually imminent, but never seems to happen.  I suspect this is related to what appears to be a military ruled by fear (you retreat, you get shot).  This certainly won't make for the most effective military but they do seem to be holding in general, but the that of course is likely a thin veil if there is a break through (we may find out soon).

On the other side, one can never discount the value of the motivation to fight.  The Ukrainians are of course filled with it, if for no other reason, not fighting has some well known (and well demonstrated) results, and they are not good.  The creativity of the Ukrainians has also been impressive.  I highly suspect, a lot of this "creativity" is the result of a lot of winking and suggestions from the US (and the West), but they certainly deserve a lot of credit.  It will be very interesting to learn the back story on some of these things (if they are ever released).

The reduction of this war, as it currently is to an almost WWI style war is also a bit surprising.  Some of this is likely the result of the historic focus of the Russian (and extension Ukrainian) military on artillery and of course helped by the reduction in effectiveness of tanks (which basically ended the usefulness of trench based warfare in WWII).  It is, effectively, the "default state" of conflicts I suspect.

I will add, to conclude, that I was not terribly surprised by the usefulness of the lessons of history.  There have been many parallels so far to things in the past, that people involved, would be well advised to be aware of.  Let history make that mistake, and learn from it, so as to not do it again (to re-phrase a common phrase).

So, of the top of my head, those are my "surprises" from this last year. 

I wonder if O2 has any comments to this effect? (maybe from a more geo-political angle)

And a quick note.   Looks like someone may be trying to create some justification for Belarus:

Reports of Liga(Wagner) mercenaries being deployed near Krupeyki village in Belarus to stage a provocation on the border

In reply to aircooled :

I was also surprised that the Russian military could not sustain a push to scrub Ukraine off the political maps. The terrain issues that this thread revealed to me has been helpful in my understanding.

In hindsight, the German push west seems obviously the prelude to World War. It is much harder to see forward if this is an action that the world should stop Russia from executing or continue to manage as it has been.

I don't know if Russia has an out. Putin kind of put all their national pride on the line. Even anti Putin Russians may jump into the fight to avoid the shame of losing in Ukraine.

I hope this thread dies soon. But I fear it will continue along with the war.