History in the Making: Russian Invasion

If China gets more involved in this, and in a way seen as favorable to Russia, India's reaction is going to be interesting.  Their closer ties to Russia, based on oil sales, vs. their dislike of China could make for some strange diplomatic issues.

As for Zelensky, I suspect China is his backup plan, but even if all he does is string them along to keep them from providing lethal support to Russia, that probably buys him another 1.5 years of military support from the US.  And frankly, if they are unable to push back to the pre-Feb 2022 borders by then, it is unlikely to happen.  At this point, I think Russia is playing for time, hoping they can either get backing from China, or that support from the US collapses after the 2024 election.  

When this is over, hopefully Ukraine is smart enough, or in a strong enough position to not take money from China's Belt and Roads initiative.

In reply to aircooled :

My thinking is China always plays the long game.  To win the Northern resource region  from Russia. Enough Chinese need to move up there and simply vote the Russians out.   Since WW2 more and more Chinese have been moving there.  Some legally Some without  the paperwork.   It's an area that documentation isn't required for much.   A generation or two it really doesn't matter.  
    Russia isn't investing much in the area while extracting as much as possible.   With the war in Ukraine to focus on  it's possible by 2100 or even sooner that whole region will be under China's control. 

In reply to frenchyd :

I forget if it was Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, or some other person who said "Never interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake."

Russia: let's try to invade countries with better tactics, equipment, esprit de corps, and international support

China: (eyeing the Northern Resource region) y'all want any help with that?

Brilliant. 

Lemme get this straight.

Crimea is an island that would be a desert if not fed water from a certain dam in Ukraine.

Currently that water is shut off at the dam.

If the Putin bridge was somehow blowed-up, Crimea would be down to airplane drops for food.

If the water does not get delivered, all the agriculture in Crimea comes to a stop. People starve.

A LOT of crimean residents identify as russian, but from where I sit, that is not a plus in light of what the arriving Ukrainians are going to be thinking.

Begs the question about why more of the war is not being played out in Crimea?

In reply to NOHOME :

The flow of water via the North Crimea Canal is not shut down, as the entirety of it is currently in Russian hands. The war is not being fought there because the Ukrainians have few options beyond the occasional drone strike to project power into it. The geography of it, and the Russian commitment to hold it, will make it an ugly fight when it comes. I would argue the Ukrainians have a far better chance of achieving their objective there by isolating it and then applying diplomatic pressure.

In reply to NOHOME :

For the residents, some of whom are now soldiers, who have been displaced since last year, going after Crimea before trying to liberate more of what Russia has recently taken may seem like a slap in the face.  Not to mention, Russia has had 8-9 years to dig in in Crimea.  If the Ukrainians can retake Melitopol and Mariupol, they can cut off the current land bridge between Crimea and Russia, and I would not be surprised if there are at least a few opportunistic strikes then, maybe even on the bridge.

Yes, first things first, roll back Russia's 2022 gains, before moving on to Crimea.

I personally would love to see Ukraine take it back, but nine years of displaced people in both directions would make that difficult and potentially unpalatable, so there is a solid chance that it can't happen.

Ukraine is also just a miserable place to fight, and Russia still maintains the advantage in Artillery (until modern Western materials begin to be used) in terms of sheer scale of tubes and force projection. Crimea is all swamp, and (This is what's been told to me from Eastern Europeans but can be corroborated) Soviet City planning called for only a handful of roads leading out, unlike American cities where you could have hundreds, and many of them just turn to muddy rivers in the oncoming spring weather. Hard to dig trenches or run tanks in muck as we've already seen.

Current hope is that Western Artillery, then Western Armor, is gonna be what really allows Ukraine to actually take offensive positions. Our artillery can shoot n' scoot in 30-60 seconds with proper training whereas Russian artillery needs ~90. Ours also, are GPS-guided rounds to within inches of placement with some having close to ~100 miles of range; that's strike Russian ammo depots in Russia territory, which as we've seen from HIMARS Russia don't really have an answer towards since they lack the accuracy and capacity for that kind of counterbattery fire. They're still loading ammo onto trains by hand! They've run out of trucks and have had to pull them from allies even.

NOHOME said:

Is China going to leapfrog NATO's weapons?

Likely no; some of the open information that's available, is that they're still using the J-series fighters from the 70s and their tank designs are largely evolutions of that T-62 they captured on Zhenbao island in 69. Now you have Biden cutting them off from the advanced stuff from ASML so it's a question as to what domestically they have capacity for anymore, and what that means if we decide to cut them off of GPS as well.

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

I have no firsthand knowledge, only what I've read here and in media sources. I thought Crimea was a very dry region, hence dependent on the canal for their water supply. I think I recall someone comparing the climate to eastern Oregon or something.

In reply to Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) :

Amen. Hence the belief that they needed to water from the dam to grow crops. 

In reply to Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) :

I'll double-check, it's not the first time I heard descriptions about one part of Ukraine and confused it for another.

Yahoo.com-AP: (time elapsed) Map shows territorial shifts in Ukraine since war began one year ago

NOHOME said:

Lemme get this straight.

 

Crimea is an island that would be a desert if not fed water from a certain dam in Ukraine.

Currently that water is shut off at the dam.

If the Putin bridge was somehow blowed-up, Crimea would be down to airplane drops for food.

If the water does not get delivered, all the agriculture in Crimea comes to a stop. People starve.

A LOT of crimean residents identify as russian, but from where I sit, that is not a plus in light of what the arriving Ukrainians are going to be thinking.

Begs the question about why more of the war is not being played out in Crimea?

Think Re-supply of troops and material.  If cut off from the North ( towards Russia). Everything from the cut off point  will  lack supplies.   
  If the battle is fought from the south,  as Russians fall back  they will reinforce  each other. While maintaining free flow of supplies. 
  One way is like cutting off the vine the other is like trimming the vine. 

Crimea is basically a "not going to happen" from an invasion perspective.  WAY to easy to defend.  As noted, the only way Ukraine gets it back is if Russia gives it up.  Also as noted, that could fairly easily be done by siege (hey, they are using WWII tactics now, why not middle ages?).  If the Ukrainians can re-capture land down to the neck of Crimea and a bit of the coast (cutting off the land supply route), they can likely hit the Kerch bridge with the HIMARS launched gliding warheads they will be getting, which would give Russia very limited supply options.

That canal that feeds Crimea also feeds a lot of the farmlands in the Kherson district, so just cutting it, or disabling it becomes a bit more complicated.  Also as noted previously the dam that is just down stream of the inlet has been draining the large lake upstream, which might potentially affect the flow into the canal.

Trust me, NOBODY from former Ukraine loves Russia anymore. Not the conscripted kids nor the ex-soviet dead mayors. 

In the event of Ukraine closing down Russian lines of communications and supply to Crimea, what will be fascinating to see - and possibly the decisive factor in Russia's ability to hold it long-term - is the reaction of the civilian population. If Ukraine gains control of Armiansk (at the northern geographical chokepoint), the writing will be on the wall; does it set off a mass exodus across the Kerch bridge? Does Russia allow that to happen, or does it turn Crimea into a prison colony and attempt to compel the population to resist? Do ethnic Russians surrender to the Ukrainians, or fight in spite of the Russian government essentially condemning them to death or glory? Does Ukraine both to keep pushing, or just seal it off and let it rot (very problematic from a PR standpoint - letting civilians starve tends to be frowned upon by many of Ukraine's most prominent backers)? How long are the Ukrainians willing to wait while negotiating the final disposition of Crimea? It's a really interesting problem for policymakers, and the reaction of the people living there is going to play a major role in determining the available options.

Along the lines of "does the west have a plan":

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UK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would receive from NATO membership and appears to reflect a desire to press Ukraine to accept a negotiated settlement on unfavorable terms.[1] The Wall Street Journal reported that the exact provisions of the pact are undecided, but the officials indicated that the pact will provide advanced military equipment, arms, and ammunition to Ukraine, but not Article V protection or a commitment to station NATO forces in Ukraine—falling short of Ukraine’s aspirations for full NATO membership. The officials stated that the pact aims to provision Ukraine so that Ukrainian forces can conduct a counteroffensive that brings Russia to the negotiating table and deter any future Russian aggression. The Wall Street Journal noted that these officials expressed reservations about the West’s ability to sustain a prolonged war effort, the high casualty count that Ukraine would sustain in such a prolonged war, and Ukrainian forces’ ability to completely recapture long-occupied territories like Crimea, however. The Wall Street Journal contrasted these officials’ private reservations with US President Joe Biden’s public statements of support—which did not mention peace negotiations—and with Central and Eastern European leaders’ concerns that premature peace negotiations would encourage further Russian aggression. Russian President Vladimir Putin has given no indication that he is willing to compromise on his stated maximalist goals, which include Ukraine’s “neutrality” and demilitarization—as well as de facto regime change in Kyiv, as ISW has consistently reported.[2]

The Chinese plan isn't exactly being received well:

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US President Joe Biden rejected China’s 12-point peace plan as Russian sources continue to capitalize on the announcement of the plan to vilify the West and Ukraine. Biden stated that the Chinese peace plan is only beneficial for Russia and that it would make no sense for China to participate in negotiations on the war in Ukraine.[7] Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) head Denis Pushilin argued that China’s peace plan is a fundamentally different approach to the war in Ukraine from the West’s as the West demands the fulfillment of preconditions while exacerbating the conflict through supporting Ukraine.[8] Pushilin nevertheless also rejected the Chinese plan because it would prevent Russia from achieving its maximalist goals in Ukraine.[9]  Russian officials and propagandists continue to assert that Western aid that helps Ukraine resist Russia’s illegal invasion protracts the war and to ignore the role that Russia’s determined pursuit of its maximalist aims plays in prolonging the conflict.

berkeley Russia, berkeley China, Ever listen to their words about a piece plan? They don't even believe what they spew out of their mouths. If we give any ground of Ukraine's land, it should be under the understanding that the rest of it is immediately admitted into the EU and NATO and we station all of our inventory of M-29 Davy Crockett Weapon System all along the entire, new NATO boarder controlled by those member nations. 

In reply to VolvoHeretic :

Davy Crocketts are old tech.  They are micronukes with a lethality radius larger than their minimum range.

We have much more devastating, non-nuclear things nowadays.  Much more precise.  Hell, we have non explosive shells that are intended for taking out specific persons of interest by extending blades.  From over the horizon.  We literally have flying guillotines like that super cheesy movie from 40-50 years ago.

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to VolvoHeretic :

Davy Crocketts are old tech.  They are micronukes with a lethality radius larger than their minimum range.

We have much more devastating, non-nuclear things nowadays.  Much more precise.  Hell, we have non explosive shells that are intended for taking out specific persons of interest by extending blades.  From over the horizon.  We literally have flying guillotines like that super cheesy movie from 40-50 years ago.

 

Yes, I'm glad you got my point. I hope those two despots get the hint also. 

Saudi Arabia is giving Ukraine 400 million in aid, 300 million in fuel.

Which is interesting since they worked with Russia to keep oil production down.... but they do REALLY hate Iran.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/saudi-arabia-supply-ukraine-aid-164547669.html

I was bullied by this big kid in our 5th grade class who would everyday for about 3 months, daily during my 3 block walk home on a back alley gravel road, while I was toting a tenor saxophone and carrying an arm full of science and math books (no backpacks then) and weighing all of 95 pounds, come up to me and shove me to the ground. Every day. My dad gave me a steel metal ruler which must have been 12"x1.25"x.120" and finally after all of that time, I whipped it out and hit him as hard as I could on his hand and he never bothered me again.