History in the Making: Russian Invasion

aircooled said:

In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :

They appear to be digging in at the Russian checkpoint and preparing for a defense (I don't think there are near enough to try and hold the towns).  I am not sure how long that will last, but it will clearly cause the Russians to divert troops there.  I suspect they will bug out as soon as anything significant shows up, but job done.

Some more info:

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast on May 22. Russian sources began reporting on the morning of May 22 that a detachment of the RDK and LSR consisting of two tanks, an armored personnel carrier, and nine other armored vehicles crossed the international border and captured Kozinka, a settlement in the Grayvoron region of Belgorod Oblast within 600 meters of the border with Sumy Oblast.[1] Several Russian sources claimed that the grouping then captured the settlements of Glotovo and Gora Podol (3km and 5km from the border, respectively), although some milbloggers disputed claims that the attack completely captured Glotovo or Gora Podol, instead reporting that RDK forces only got to the Glotovo House of Culture.[2] ISW has not yet observed geolocated confirmation that the RDK or LSR reached Glotovo or Gora Podol. Geolocated footage posted on May 22 does confirm that the RDK struck a border post near Kozinka before crossing the border with at least one tank.[3] The RDK also posted footage reportedly showing the body of a Russian border guard in a border station, likely from the border crossing near Kozinka.[4] Russian milbloggers later claimed that Russian troops retook control of all three settlements.[5]  Some Russian sources additionally reported that Russian forces repelled pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups near Dronovka, about 22km northwest of Kozinka.[6] The RDK additionally posted footage reportedly outside two settlements near the border area in Bryansk Oblast, but the nature of this incursion is unclear and ISW has not observed additional evidence or discourse surrounding actions in Bryansk Oblast on May 22.[7]

 

I saw that border guard video.  That was bad

Yeah, I thought yesterday that this would be mostly "symbolic" (we, the rebels, did this because we could.  Now you know we can) but would stop very well short of something like Bakhmut, etc.  But the Russians fighting Russians in Russia is an interesting element in all of this.  I'm very curious to see how it all plays out.

(and for the life of me, I can't find the darn video of supposeed Russian rebels in the area calling others to take arms.  I thought it would have been relevant here).

In reply to alfadriver :

Good questions. I don't even think is 'some things said about UKR'. It's most of the infowars crap from Russia that is actually back-asswards. Who are the Nazis? Who is invading? Is this a war? Who is the threat?

Here is a pic from the Russian Legion guys.  It is pretty confusing that they are flying the Ukrainian flag.  I suspect this is mostly to avoid getting shot at by the Ukrainians rather than an indication that they are representing Ukraine.  Like I say, kind of a weird technicality thing.

FJ40Jim said:

In reply to alfadriver :

Good questions. I don't even think is 'some things said about UKR'. It's most of the infowars crap from Russia that is actually back-asswards. Who are the Nazis? Who is invading? Is this a war? Who is the threat?

It's also telling that Russia has been using the same coded talk as alt-righters; "globalists", "Globohomo", "New world order" ect. But in talking with Russian immigrants it's a state of conspiracies to explain why they're so down bad.

Possible map of controlled rebel regions in Belogrod. Obviously I wouldn't put much into it, but so far we've seen no movements from Ukraine on the offensive during this but of chaos so my theory is it's a legit uprising.

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:

aircooled said:

In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :

They appear to be digging in at the Russian checkpoint and preparing for a defense (I don't think there are near enough to try and hold the towns).  I am not sure how long that will last, but it will clearly cause the Russians to divert troops there.  I suspect they will bug out as soon as anything significant shows up, but job done.

(and for the life of me, I can't find the darn video of supposeed Russian rebels in the area calling others to take arms.  I thought it would have been relevant here).

here you go.

GIRTHQUAKE said:

FJ40Jim said:

In reply to alfadriver :

Good questions. I don't even think is 'some things said about UKR'. It's most of the infowars crap from Russia that is actually back-asswards. Who are the Nazis? Who is invading? Is this a war? Who is the threat?

It's also telling that Russia has been using the same coded talk as alt-righters; "globalists", "Globohomo", "New world order" ect. But in talking with Russian immigrants it's a state of conspiracies to explain why they're so down bad.

Everything is so weird and messed up. My business is in liberalville, USA (Berkeley). There's a guy who is always posting a banner on an overpass that says "GOP" with a hammer and sickle. And every time I see it I think "Wait, weren't you guys all pro-communist until a few minutes ago?"

It's really shocking how little people understand about the particulars of any given ideology or system of government. When I explain the differences between fascism and communism to my European history survey classes, it's clear that 1) they didn't have any concept of how those systems were intended to work, or worked in practice, and 2) that they were different from each other, yes, but also quite similar in a lot of ways (thus totalitarianism). I can't even get deeper than that to look at the basic differences between Italian and German fascism or communism vs. socialism vs. anarchosyndicalism - there's just not enough grounding simple political concepts for it to make any sense. These days, all many people grasp is "communism/fascism BAD" and start flinging the terms around pejoratively and with abandon, appropriate to the situation or not.

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

ooh! That was better than the one I found.

The one I found was 4 or 5 rebels in camo.  They were standing in front of a vehicle and two guys had their faces blurred out.  The speaker and one other  did not.  Their talking points were shorter, but much the same.

In reply to 02Pilot :

Hmm...  pure communism does not mean totalitarianism. Communism among 100% equals could easily have democratically chosen individuals to serve in positions requiring some level of leadership and decision making. Optimally, for limited terms where at the end they simply go back to doing whatever they were doing to contribute to the collective.  Where it tends to fall apart is when those leaders get a taste of power and human greed takes over. Especially when attempted on the scale of an entire country with millions (or billions) of individuals. 

Assuming he survives the war, it will be interesting to see what happens to Zelensky.  Personally, I would like to see him go back to being just an actor.  I'm sure he would like to go back to just making people laugh again.

In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :

Communism, like a lot of "isms" doesn't scale, nor age well. I think that they are useful not as a rote playbook, but as a general leaning and personal outlook. Ayn Rand, for instance was something of a nutcase - who happened to write a couple very influential and important books (Objectivism - pretty much the opposite of communism). In retrospect, I'm fairly sure that my grandfather was a communist, but I never heard it declared so, and he was a successful building contractor. It was just his way of living - coupled with the ever-present copies of Soviet Life Magazine he left laying around. 

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

If you're interested, David Maraniss' A Good American Family is an interesting read about growing up in a family where both his parents were communists. I've assigned it in US history surveys, and it's been fairly well-received.

I can't help but think that the tagline for Soviet Life Magazine had to be "In Soviet Russia, magazine photographs you!"

My recollection is that Soviet Life was all about projecting the illusion of a workers paradise and was a pretty darn good piece of propaganda with lots of pretty pictures like Life magazine or other high-profile western mags had. 

Everyone is the reflection of their environments. Karl Marx wrote what he did because a lot of working conditions during the early industrial revolution were legitimate hellholes. My grandfather came of age right after WWII, and rode the rails with disenfranchised veterans with missing legs and scalded lungs. Most of us grew up in comparative prosperity and all that workers rights stuff seems antiquated and unnecessary.

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

Everything is so weird and messed up. My business is in liberalville, USA (Berkeley). There's a guy who is always posting a banner on an overpass that says "GOP" with a hammer and sickle. And every time I see it I think "Wait, weren't you guys all pro-communist until a few minutes ago?"

I've volunteered for the primaries multiple times, and I've worked in ICUs all throughout COVID; in the primaries I had 3 death threats to my face, then during COVID I had one about every week from an anti-masker. Got called a nazi at least twice a month, since obviously with 80% of our floor active COVID on a vent you can't be on the floor without a surgical mask. I bring that up because I feel a lot of America is a nation of fads. People don't really understand why "X is bad", they just hear it with bad connotations- and then if/when they become your average reactionary, become more than willing to turn to it since it offers easy answers. After all, Marx never wrote in how we were supposed to achieve "true communism", and Mussolini never detailed how your average Italian man was supposed to find fulfillment in the "total war" philosophies of Fascism.

At the same time, with what Texas is now allowing the Secretary of State to do in a recent law, the hammer and sickle is not too far off anymore...

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

Quote from video

"tyrannic horde Moscovite reign"

ouch.  But if the shoe fits.

And then...

We shouldn't joke about a serious matter like this.  But we have to.

This just in.

Platoon of Russian mercenaries captured by seven Ukrainian soldiers

If this sort of thing is true, Russia's military can not replace these men with more untrained men (if in fact they were untrained) fast enough.

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

It must be nice knowing everything.

Seriously, this is why I won't go into the gun thread. You might be a great guy to work on or race a car with, but this thread has colored how I see you, and I don't like that. 

The Russians closed the Kerch bridge.... for a "drill"...  hmmm.

The Russians are claiming the Ivan Khurs (intelligence gathering ship) was attacked near the Bosphorus Strait (Turkey) by drone ships.  They claim no damage.  Ship for reference:

aircooled said:

The Russians closed the Kerch bridge.... for a "drill"...  hmmm.

The Russians are claiming the Ivan Khurs (intelligence gathering ship) was attacked near the Bosphorus Strait (Turkey) by drone ships.  They claim no damage.  Ship for reference:

I saw unconfirmed video of the drone attack earlier (scroll to the top if it doesn't take you automatically):  https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1661395445308964864?cxt=HHwWgIC-0dyWu44uAAAA

The bridge looks like they've got some sort of smoke screen going on...  Do they maybe think we still need visual contact for targeting???

And there's this from the "Free Russia Legion" 2 hours ago:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1661412119491878912?t=hNkv9kTbpoPCpXm3zKmiFQ&s=19

Looks like the rebels are still in the area to some extent.

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:

 

.....The bridge looks like they've got some sort of smoke screen going on...  Do they maybe think we still need visual contact for targeting???

Maybe, but that is a LOOOONGGG bridge to try and cover and hope it's not too windy.  Knocking out any part of the bridge should have pretty much the same effect.

The Storm Shadow missile that Ukraine now has, does apparently used a camera to get a visual lock on the target for the final attack.  Not sure if it uses infra red or not, but they have IR masking smoke also.

Doesn't look like "things blowed up" kind of smoke.  Perhaps they are doing something, installing something, they don't want anyone to see?

In reply to aircooled :

or fixing something?

Strange, for sure.

About the Russian Legion guys - i found i read a little their OFFICIAL info-channel

these guys are russian citizens and are fighting on the side of Ukraine. Their goal is to free Russia from Putin's rule.

They also say that they support the partisan movement throughout Russia.

Their actions showed very clearly that Russia's borders are practically unprotected and the ru army fired on its own citizens(I don't just mean the guys in the Legion, but also the civilians)

Hmm... so it's a very interesting situation, keep watching.