History in the Making: Russian Invasion

In reply to Oapfu :

You are correct!  I should have read the whole article!

Missile strike in Pidhirodnie of Dnipro district.  Just north of Dnipro.   At least 6 wounding, looks like maybe an apartment building?....   hoping Vikki was not around there.

I believe Zelensky would prefer to have some more Patriots to suppress the Russian air force:

Ukrainian officials continue to signal that Ukrainian forces are prepared to start counteroffensive operations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in a June 3 interview with the Wall Street Journal that Ukraine is ready to launch a counteroffensive.[1] Zelensky stated that Ukraine “would like to have certain things, but … can’t wait for months” to start counteroffensive operations.[2] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on June 3 that “military plans love silence” and that she will “discuss something else” in the meantime, likely acknowledging that Ukrainian officials have started to more strictly enforce a regime of informational silence about operations in preparation for upcoming counteroffensives.[3] Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko stated on June 3 that Ukraine has formed all nine brigades of the “Offensive Guard” and that these formations are ready to take part in hostilities at Zelensky’s and Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi’s orders.[4]

Hope Vikki's okay. There's a lot of movement going on currently.

Russian telegram channels say Ukraine has recaptured towns in Zaphorizhzhia.

Russia is firebombing it's.own buildings in Belogrod, unable to retake them from separatists.

Sweden has complied with Turkey's requests and is now has the right to join in NATO.

Ukrainian activity in Dontesk.

David Patraeus says Ukraines counteroffensive is "very impressive". Considering Ukraine hasn't told anyone major details, I wonder what he does know.

Russian telegram claims Ukrainians are forming up on the Belogrod border.

Belogrod separatists are trying to arrange negotiations with the regional governor.

Also there's talk of Ukraine assisting Moldova with Transanista, and for weeks Russians have been repeatedly claiming the offensive has begun. Wonder how much that has tired them.

The Ukrainians seem to be doing a lot of strikes in the southern occupied coast. Apparently to hit logistic and resupply nodes.  This seems to telegraph a southern push but who knows.  Lots of small exploratory attacks to the south also.

It also looks like the Russians have been targeting more military target (airbases etc), so the attacks on civilian infrastructure seems to have decreased noticeably.

I am sure the US has a very good idea of the what and where the Ukrainians forces are with the combination satellite and JSTAR data as well as knowing exactly what they have been supplied.

Another local source of information that I believe is trustworthy:
War Crisis Update - Friends of the Mennonite Centre in Ukraine

The link is to newsletters published by a Canadian-based Mennonite humanitarian organization that operated in Molochans'k (about 50km from Melitopol, in Zaporizihia Oblast) from 2001 until the russians seized their building last August.  They then relocated to Khortytsya, about 75km south of Dnipro.  It looks like their main focus is now on serving internally displaced people.

At least four generations of my Prussian Mennonite ancestors lived in Ukraine, in an around Molochans'k, so this is relevant to me.

Missile strike in Pidhirodnie of Dnipro district.  Just north of Dnipro.

Hi everyone!!!

i'm okay in a physical sense, but psychologically... it's very hard - it shocked the people around us again.

It's a small town near Dnipro, missile hit residential buildings - there are NO!!! any military facilities/objects nearby!!!

Russians in the news channels reported that a drone assembly company was destroyed (It's interesting to read the news, especially when you know the places they write about... aha... hmm... and such situations has happened more than once - shelling of civilian objects is presented as hitting military targets)

22 people were wounded, 1 little girl(2yo) died (her mother is in a very serious condition in the hospital) 

Honestly, it gets harder and harder every time

It's too hurt to see how civilians suffer and die...

It's too hurt to see how soldiers, military medics and volunteers suffer and die...

The best of us - young, talented, full of hopes and plans for the future - die... it's too hurt...

Seeing houses damaged, cities completely destroyed... Will people go back there?

Talking in person to people who have lost everything, seeing the tears in the eyes of a refugee-man(former military) when he said that his hometown - Bakhmut - was completely destroyed and his house too and what a beautiful and cozy town it was until it was "liberated" by the ru army.

Many-many such stories... too hurt...

It hurts to see how the land and nature have suffered - especially the places I've been to or wanted to visit, but now they're gone...

How long will it take to rebuild cities, restore nature???

It's all very painful - too much grief and pain...

War is an absolute evil and it is awful!!! and certainly not the way to solve any issues or any questions in the civilized world - humanity never learned the lessons of history!!!

I apologize if i was too emotional. Wishing peace and goodness to all 

I'm so sorry, Vikki. Few if any of us have an idea what it's like to live in a war zone and experience the loss and suffering that you, your loved ones and your compatriots have. You're in our hearts and minds.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

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Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

It's obvious that you're doing this to control the discussion as a form of attention seeking behavior

It's pretty interesting that you think I'm the one trying to "control the discussion."  I'm not doing defacto censorship and trying to be sole judge of what is "on topic" and what is not.  I simply questioned the validity of the information being presented as factual.  I did this based on the amount of false information that is provided on purpose daily and never corrected.  
 

This is actually where I disagree with most everyone and strongly.  The truth matters most.  Any other discussion is secondary to that.  Whether or not you like that (clearly most of you do not), is of no concern.  If placing factual information above everyone's collective feelings is wrong, then E36 M3 everyone.  I don't care.  I'm sorry if that bothers or offends you, but truth is more important than anything else.  Why society went astray of that is literally and in reality the root of every social and economic problem ever discussed on this very forum.  
 

You can dislike me as much as you choose.  If you come at it from a factually based position, I can respect that.  When you come at it by any other means, I'm going to say it's E36 M3, because it is.  
 

It's going to be very interesting to come see how you all feel about this in 20 years.  I expect a whole bunch of the we were lied to about WMD just like the 20 year Iraq invasion thread.  Why does it take so long to acknowledge reality?  Is pride only second to political correctness?  I'm fine being wrong.  I'd rather know now, then wait 20 years to figure it out.  
 

So why has the censorship question been unanswered and avoided?  Are you that xxxxx (pick any word you like) to agree to what is simple common knowledge?  If that's the case, do any of you really actually support "free, open, and honest" discussion as is so often claimed here?  My posts actually provide ample evidence to the contrary.  
 

Yes truth is that important.  Without it, nothing else matters.  

 

Why hasn't the censorship question been answered? Because there is no censorship going on here. Because the 1st Amendment only applies to the government trying to limit freedom of expression. Period. Full stop.

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

I'm so sorry, Vikki. Few if any of us have an idea what it's like to live in a war zone and experience the loss and suffering that you, your loved ones and your compatriots have. You're in our hearts and minds.

I am quoting this because it warrants repetition.  Well said.

well, this is interesting.  Russia buys back arms parts sold to Asia

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-buys-back-arms-parts-sold-to-asia/

I wonder how much of a markup was paid?

Some strange things going on with Prigozhin (Wagner).  Apparently on their retreat from Bahkmut they where attacked by a Russian regular army unit (only destroyed a truck).  The Wagners took the unit commander and beat the crap out of him and reported that he was drunk.  Another day in Russia I guess...

Article from what might be a Polish(?) paper.  He is kind of sounding a bit like another dictator who was known to sit in his bunker, moving imaginary units around and refusing to listen to bad news.

Putin gets furious when he hears about Russia's failures - ONET

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has stopped listening to any criticism from the Kremlin about the war with Ukraine. The President of the Russian Federation immediately becomes angry, and then accuses the one who reports to him that he "fell under the influence of Western propaganda" and "brings confusion."

The Freedom Legion guys claim to have captured a number of small villages in Russia, so they are still at it.  BTW- I would suspect you might wonder why the Russians don't just air strike them out of existence.  I suspect they are close enough into Russia that they are still well under Ukrainian air defense cover.  Some controversy about Freedom Legion guys carrying weapons intended for the Ukrainians army... they are investigating  (yeah....).

Small Tank battle on the southern front.  Two Russian tanks down from what is shown.  Some advances made.

This is all very similar to a boxer shooting out a series of jabs while his opponent waits for the big swing.  Enough jabs equals a lot of damage eventually.

Some more info the the Wagner incident. Apparently not a case of mistaken identify, he just really did not like Wagner! (my bolding in body)

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is continuing efforts to exacerbate the divide between the Wagner Group and the Russian MoD. Prigozhin’s press service published a video on June 4 showing a Wagner fighter interrogating a Russian soldier who identified himself as Lieutenant Colonel Roman Venevitin of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Army Corps).[24] Venevitin admitted on camera that he ordered his unit to fire on a Wagner vehicle while intoxicated due to his own “personal animosity” towards Wagner.[25] Venevitin appeared to have sustained facial injuries during the time of his capture by Wagner.[26] Prigozhin also claimed that Wagner personnel engaged in a small skirmish with Russian MoD personnel in Semihirya (15km southeast of Bakhmut) on May 17 after the MoD personnel fired on Wagner fighters when they tried to stop the MoD personnel from laying mines in Wagner’s rear.[27] As ISW has previously assessed, Prigozhin continues to inject such anti-MoD narratives into the Russian information space in order to retain his status in the information space following the culmination of Wagner’s Bakhmut offensive and Wagner’s withdrawal from combat in Ukraine.[28] The suggestion that units operating under the Russian MoD are actively firing on Wagner while intoxicated strengthens Prigozhin’s argument that the Russian MoD is a combat-ineffective and somewhat nefarious force.

Looks like Russia is going after Kyiv and Dnipro again.  So hopefully just bit of noise tonight for Vikki.

Lots of chatter indicating that the Nova Kakhovka dam has been breached, apparently emptying the enormous reservoir that provides water to cool the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as well as putting everything downriver at risk of some pretty terrible flooding.  Photos here for those who want them.

Looks like the Russians are claiming it collapsed due to previous damage (that they did of course trying to keep the Ukrainians from crossing it). The Ukrainians are saying the Russians blew it up.

This was the same dam that the Russians keep warning the Ukrainians were going to blow up to flood the Russians near Kherson (which seemed a LOT more like they wanted to blow it up and blame the Ukrainians). At this point flooding downstream only helps the Russians since the Ukrainians are now in that area, and it makes it that much harder to cross / attack there.

As noted, the lake created by the dam is also the cooling water source for the Zaporisha nuclear power plant, which I am pretty sure provides power only to the Russian held territory.  It's possible they might have to power down the plant when the water lowers.

I would say, rather obviously, this is a generally not good

Reports say explosions, so, Russians.  No way Ukrainians want it destroyed at this point.  It also looks like its more heavily damaged, not collapsed, based on this photo, which I think is current (?)

Aircooled -  the pictures that I'm seeing are if not total loss, close to it. But isn't that also the source of Crimea's water? Why would the Russians blow that up? Unless they expect to lose there. 

Yes, good point, the inlet is on the shore not that far to the right of the photo above.

It looks more like it was partially beached.  The Russians certainly don't want the Ukrainians to use the roadway that runs across it, so maybe they either hit, or tried to hit the roadway, and did a bit more than they needed to?

That is how it was damaged previously. The Russians blew up the roadway (which it built over the top of the dam) on the western end (left side in photo above).

Hard to see if there is any damage to the road in the photo.  BTW, the flow shown is not from the power plant, that is to the right.

reposted from DarkMonahue:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1665907948986458113

Either the pic I posted is old, or it came apart after that.  Clearly there is a much more noticeable breach.  The video clearly show a large gap.  This shot appears to be prior to the video since it is smaller. Looks like the power plant building, utility roadway to its left (?)

I guess the question now is how far the dam will disintegrate and how low the water will go.

Image from the video thread:

I can see two reasons for the Russians to blow the dam now. One, the water release is likely to flood a wide area across the river from Kherson and the surrounding area. This will make any crossing below the dam impossible for the foreseeable future. If the Russians detected a troop build-up behind Kherson, blowing the dam makes tactical sense, as it has the potential to throw off the timetable for a coordinated offensive of which those troops would be a part. Two, the humanitarian efforts necessary, and the large numbers of refugees moving along the road network directly behind the front, both serve to slow troop movements and reduce the numbers of support personnel available to any offensive movement.

Water levels in the reservoir are reportedly dropping at 5cm/hour. This would seem a relatively controlled rate, suggesting that the Russians blew only a section in order to avoid damage the to the North Crimea Canal, and to prolong the outflow event. Of note is the fact that the IAEA is reporting that when the water drops approximately 4m, it can no longer be pumped into the Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility, though there are alternative water sources available. Assuming the rate of flow stays constant at 5cm/hour, it will take roughly four days for that level to be reached, if in fact the dam is blown below that level.

Seems like a very Orc thing to do. Makes me (kind of) want to see the Crimean canal and bridge taken out as well. 

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

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In reply to z31maniac :

This is how you do it.  That's a great argument but I think The Constitution also applies to all businesses operating within the borders of the US and the jurisdiction of the US.  I don't accept the argument that companies can do whatever they want.  So this is censorship even if it is just low grade of it.  The govt doing it would be more aggregious, but this is still censorship.  So I agree the 1st amendment limits the govt, but that's not all.
 

Anything happen to a dam recently?  

 

 

 

Accept it, don't accept it, doesn't matter and nor do I care. 

Those are the rules. Don't like them, then lobby to have them changed.