History in the Making: Russian Invasion

I hope Wagner and the Ministry of Defense can take long enough that morale at the front line collapses, and Ukraine can make some gains.  If they sort this out too quickly, I suspect the troops will stay at their defensive positions.

It looks to me like Wagner is still trying to avoid directly heaping blame on Putin, which I am guessing is mostly a PR strategy.  Anyone want to speculate on what side Rosgvardia will take?  

Hang in there Vikki.  It seems like the Russian regime may solve some of the problems for us.  Fingers crossed and stay safe.

VikkiDp said:

All Ukraine under VERY massive missiles attaks right now!!!

Pray for us

Saying this won't make the situation any less terrible, but this reeks of fear and frustration, as if the russian military is angry that they are potentially losing whatever trust and cooperation they had with wagner, angry that prigozhin he has called them out on a war built on lies, and they want to punish someone for it. It sounds like a temper tantrum thrown by someone who is weak and losing control. 

I'm sorry this is happening to you and your country. Please stay safe and know that we are all thinking of you and hoping for the best. We will be here waiting for you to check back in when you can.

This is about a third of the way to Moscow, so they appear to be making progress.

Small arms clashes reported near Pavlovsk of Voronezh region, truck is on fire on highway, reports of tanks

Another message from Prigozhyn

“Fights take place in places where the military leadership gives false information to the fighters and therefore skirmishes occur. Where the soldiers meet us, the National Guard and the police, they wave their hands joyfully and many of them say: "We want to go with you." There are already 60-70 people who have joined us, although we still have come a short way. I think half the army is ready to go with us," - Prigozhyn

I guess the real question is:  What is Prigozhyn's goal here, and what would his future action / wishes be?  What is his end game?

He appears to be steaming mad at the Russian military leadership and wants them dead (and at least replaced).  He seems to be claiming everyone was fooled by them... implying... he want's to stop the war?  Or does he want to show them how to win it?  How does Putin play in this?  Will Putin take a "side" in this?

Looks like Wagner controls Rostov, and there is also a convoy heading towards Moscow.  Prygozhyn appears to be in Rostov.  Some indication that Prygozhyn will hold Rostov until the Army high command comes to him.  Not sure what the intent of the convoy heading to Moscow is in that case.

BTW -BBC TV seems to be covering this pretty well.
 

All of the military facilities in Rostov including the military airfield are under the Wagner control - Prygozhyn

Stay safe Vikki! We'll be anxiously awaiting your next check-in from these cowardly acts of terrorism.

In reply to aircooled :

Based on some of the most recent comments from Prigozhin, I'm thinking it's NOT that he wants to show them how to win it:

"Why was the war needed? The war was needed so that a handful of scumbags could have a blast and get PR attention showing how strong the army is."

"The war was needed not in order to return Russian citizens to our bosom. And not in order to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. It was needed for one star with additional embroidery so that one mentally sick man could look good on a coffin pillow."

"Shoigu lives by the principle that 'a lie must be horrific for people to believe it'. That's when the lies come."

 If I didn't know any better, it's almost as if after all the death he personally has been responsible for, that he for some reason actually wants to stop the war now. Whether it's a newfound conscience, pragmatism looking longer term at Russia's future, 'gunning' for a promotion, helping a 'friend' out of a jam, or some combination there of, I really don't know. My WAG is that while there could be other supporting reasons, this is his all-in gamble to give Putin an off-ramp, and which is about the only way he's ever going to secure a promotion from his current position.

Then again, his feud with Shoigu might have literally driven him crazy, and it could just really be as dumb as two drunk hot-headed idiots starting a barroom brawl.

Two little Hitlers will fight it out until one little Hitler does the other one's will

I am 100% not educated in such situations, but I think Wagner dude sees an opportunity to become the big boss *and* pull in a ton of foreign money to support him.

the question then is, what kind of big boss will he be?

If Prygozhyn's avoided being critical of Putin at this point, it's probably only so he can claim Putin has stepped down and retired once this is over. I can't see this being anything other than an all-or-nothing coup attempt at this point.

I also wonder what the Ukraine is going to do while the Russians are busy fighting each other.

Driven5 said:

Stay safe Vikki! We'll be anxiously awaiting your next check-in from these cowardly acts of terrorism.

 

In reply to aircooled :

Based on some of the most recent comments from Prigozhin, I'm thinking it's NOT that he wants to show them how to win it:

"Why was the war needed? The war was needed so that a handful of scumbags could have a blast and get PR attention showing how strong the army is."

"The war was needed not in order to return Russian citizens to our bosom. And not in order to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. It was needed for one star with additional embroidery so that one mentally sick man could look good on a coffin pillow."

"Shoigu lives by the principle that 'a lie must be horrific for people to believe it'. That's when the lies come."

 If I didn't know any better, it's almost as if after all the death he personally has been responsible for, that he for some reason actually wants to stop the war now. Whether it's a newfound conscience, pragmatism looking longer term at Russia's future, 'gunning' for a promotion, helping a 'friend' out of a jam, or some combination there of, I really don't know. My WAG is that while there could be other supporting reasons, this is his all-in gamble to give Putin an off-ramp, and which is about the only way he's ever going to secure a promotion from his current position.

Then again, his feud with Shoigu might have literally driven him crazy, and it could just really be as dumb as two drunk hot-headed idiots starting a barroom brawl.

I believe about 10 percent of what comes out of that man's mouth. However....... you could construct a narrative where he's less batsh-t than he first seems. There's been rumors for a while that he has collaborated with Ukraine. Maybe there's some truth there. And as cold-hearted as it is, the whole using criminals to die instead of regular Russians also makes a perverse sense. There's a bit of the enemy of my enemy is my friend going on here. But this "friend" seems the sort that would spin and rip out your throat whenever it suited him.

no matter how rhis plays out it looks like Wagner is off the board for a while, and the Ruzzians have to redirect to deal with them.

So question about Pirgozhin....

What in the world is he really thinking??? 

Look at what he's done- he's put a lot of public effort into the fight in Ukraine.  Who knows how much actual money he's put into this battle, but based on his direct support of the war, how much worldwide political capitol has be blown through???

Now he's claiming this could have all been prevented?  By that, I see that he *should* have stepped in very publicly and worked with Ukraine to bring them back into a good relationship with russia.  Which would have made him a very strong person world wide.  Instead, he says that it should have happened, which directly lowers his status in the world.  Not just because he didn't do anything 3 years ago, but he put so much effort into something like this now.

It's fine that there are regrets and all, but this comes out so very hollow and fake.  Even if he takes russia, who would want to actually engage him after what he's done?

Some updates:

- The northern Wagner units are reportedly about 100 miles south of Moscow.

- The Russians tried to block the highways with trucks....  the Wagners have APC and tanks... you can imagine how that works out.

- The Russians have attacked the convoy with helicopters, the Wagners have shot some down

- Prigozhin reportedly has taken the airfield in Rostov (clearly he needs / wants airpower)

- Prigozhin has reportedly emptied the prisons in Rostov (and I imagine will be arming them)

- Wagner is pulling units off the front line to join their compatriots.

- Russia blows up an oil depot south of Moscow (to clearly keep it from the Wagners).

The first skirmish between the Wagner and units of the Russian Guard has just taken place on the Rostov-Moscow highway, - RosSMI.

The National Guard fled, leaving their weapons and several armored personnel carriers, and the Wagnerist column continued to move towards Moscow.

Maybe(?):

The 217th Guards Airborne Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces went over to Prigozhin's side

Putin finally talks and comes out against Prigozhin.  This of course is great news.  That means the destruction of Russian units (be they Russian army, or Wagner) is very likely as they fight.  It also means this is unlikely to be over quickly.  

With the stories about how the Defense Ministry had been trying to get the Wagner troops to sign papers saying they now obey the Defense Ministry instead of Pirgozhin, my guess his thought process is that Moscow intends to kill him sooner or later, so a slim chance he can seize power is still his best chance to survive.

"mein fuhrer..."

Wagner is believed to be 100 miles out of Moscow and has entered the Oblast: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1672606997697515520?s=20

Kadryov forces may have surrendered to Wagner: https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1672611481215541257

Also of note:  The HQ that Prigozhin has taken in Rostov, is the command for the entire southern Russian army... where the Ukrainians are currently counter attacking.  The Ukrainians have already taken out some of those commanders.

This has GOT to be a very serious command and control issue for the Russians. E.g. if the Ukrainians do something they need to adjust to, it will like be FAR more difficult.  Ukraine will almost certainly capitalize on this.

As of yesterday Russia is fighting a war on two fronts. Historically that has rarely, if ever, gone well. Either they wrap this up quickly or they will destroy themselves. 

I know there is still plenty of terrible things that can come of it, but for the time being in going to savior this moment of pure schadenfreude.

Some more observations.  As noted the Russians have essentially lost their southern command (depending on what Prigozhin is doing there).  The Russian army is very top heavy, command wise.  This may make things like ordering airstrikes very difficult for the Russians. One of the primary issues the Ukrainians have is with Russian air power.

Moscow does have it's own defense forces clearly (if nothing else, to guard the Kremlin).  They are certainly loyal troops, but likely spend most of their time guarding buildings, marching in parades (and of course drinking). The Wagner troops they are potentially facing, are easily the most effective fighting units for the Russians (left), the most battle hardened (which becomes very important when things get bad) and have been resting for the last few months.

The biggest issue I can see the Wagners will have is with airpower.  I can certainly see the Russians just bombing the crap out of them (yes, they are in Russian civilian areas, but sacrifices have to be made). This of course depends on the Russian air force, which has been less then effective sometime, and of course is primarily deployed to the front.

Speed of advance is the Wagners most important asset at this point.

The situation is developing so quickly that it's hard to know what to expect. I'm waiting until our resident scholar gives us his perspective.

Russian forces may choose to lay siege to Rostov-on-Don. We've seen the Russian's version of a siege. Destroy everything and kill everyone.

Anyone heard from Vikki?

Driven5 said:

If I didn't know any better, it's almost as if after all the death he personally has been responsible for, that he for some reason actually wants to stop the war now. Whether it's a newfound conscience, pragmatism looking longer term at Russia's future, 'gunning' for a promotion, helping a 'friend' out of a jam, or some combination there of, I really don't know. My WAG is that while there could be other supporting reasons, this is his all-in gamble to give Putin an off-ramp, and which is about the only way he's ever going to secure a promotion from his current position.

Then again, his feud with Shoigu might have literally driven him crazy, and it could just really be as dumb as two drunk hot-headed idiots starting a barroom brawl.

It looks like Prigozhin recognizes that the war is becoming a quagmire with a pyrrhic victory being the best case scenario for Russia, especially with its current military leadership, and sees an opportunity to take power in a coup on an end-the-war platform which would make it relatively easy for him to mend Russia's relationships with the rest of the world.

I suspect he's aiming to be a less delusional (or less deluded by others) and more pragmatic Putin, one that won't start harebrained invasions of neighboring countries for the hell of it, but all indications so far are that he would still be an underwear-poisoning piece of E36 M3 very much from the same mold.