People needs stories - narratives to hang their hats on and make sense of the world. Prigozhin may have one that gives Russia the opportunity to withdraw while saving face - namely : "We entered Ukraine to save the lives of Russians and to purge Ukraine of their Fascist element. But our inept, corrupt and greedy military leadership botched the thing and plunged us into war. We have taught Ukraine a lesson. Their country is in ruins. Now it's time to turn our attention to the enemies within." Cue purge of leadership. Cue partial withdrawl. Cue several years of force building at which point Russia's military - led by Prigozhin, becomes a thorn in our sides again.
Edit: I read Gameboys post after my own. We're thinking along similar lines. I don't even know that Prigozhin will depose Putin. Instead he may push to strip Putin of most of his power over the the military and give himself more.
Is there another private army in Russia? If there is, they are in the best position to take over and prevent 20-30 years of economic isolation from the rest of the world. Wagner participated, in a very violent way, so Pirogozhin can't take that back and pretend this didn't need to happen.
alfadriver said:
So question about Pirgozhin....
What in the world is he really thinking???
Look at what he's done- he's put a lot of public effort into the fight in Ukraine. Who knows how much actual money he's put into this battle, but based on his direct support of the war, how much worldwide political capitol has be blown through???
Now he's claiming this could have all been prevented? By that, I see that he *should* have stepped in very publicly and worked with Ukraine to bring them back into a good relationship with russia. Which would have made him a very strong person world wide. Instead, he says that it should have happened, which directly lowers his status in the world. Not just because he didn't do anything 3 years ago, but he put so much effort into something like this now.
It's fine that there are regrets and all, but this comes out so very hollow and fake. Even if he takes russia, who would want to actually engage him after what he's done?
Don't Forget that the Wagner group is the main force in Russian global military. So if the Wagner group are suddenly enemies of the state Russian forces will have to go in and displace them. Where will they come from?
NOHOME
MegaDork
6/24/23 1:37 p.m.
Has Putin reached out for NATO help yet?
NOHOME said:
Has Putin reached out for NATO help yet?
Wouldn't that be interesting.
Sounds like Putin is hiding in St Petersburg and Lukashenko is also in Turkey.
someone realized they went to far? How can they just walk this back like nothing happened now?
To be fair, at this point did you think Russia could even pull off a Civil war properly?
Rumor that Shoigu has already been arrested: https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1672675077417062408?s=46&t=pm6J5YnUK89_iqIK0WAssQ
In reply to bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) :
The story that Lukashenko brokered the deal is what surprised me. Very curious to know what was promised to each side, and how they'll be able to enforce it.
Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) said:
Russian forces may choose to lay siege to Rostov-on-Don. We've seen the Russian's version of a siege. Destroy everything and kill everyone.
Certainly what they do.
Remember though, this is a major Russian city, filled with Russian citizens!
Hi everyone!!!
We're okay, but it was a quite stressful night (it was about 3.30 at night when i texted my message)
51 missiles and 2 shahed - so it was VERY noisy - many explosions.
Unfortunately there were hits in Dnipro - these are civilian houses and civilian infrastructure. About Kyiv you've seen.
the terror from russia is going on...
VikkiDp said:
Hi everyone!!!
We're okay, but it was a quite stressful night (it was about 3.30 at night when i texted my message)
51 missiles and 2 shahed - so it was VERY noisy - many explosions.
Unfortunately there were hits in Dnipro - these are civilian houses and civilian infrastructure. About Kyiv you've seen.
the terror from russia is going on...
Good to hear from you Vikki! Sorry to hear the terror strikes continue.
About Prigozhin - WTF??? What is it???
All Ukrainians were following the situation since yesterday's evening - hey, bring us come popcorn - it's interesting!!!
I (and many people around) hoped that the spiders in the jar will stat eating each other or the russian army is looking for an excuse to leave Ukraine with its face intact.
But honestly it looked very strange from the beginning.
In any case Wagner showed that russian goverment is weak.
In reply to VikkiDp :
Vikki, We are all very glad to hear that you are okay.
Anyone else think prigohzin is dead?
It's kind of looking like Prigozhin is taking an out. He apparently is traveling to Belarus now... I suspect VERY carefully, as the only real way there is either driving back south of Moscow, or flying (!!!! oh, no... accidental shoot down).
If they are planning on effectively disbanding Wagner, what do the Wagner troops thinks about that? Folding them back into the Russian Army, they will NOT like that. That seems like that would be a betrayal by Prigozhin! Prigozhin has always claimed to care for his troops (real?), I cannot imagine that would be in line with what he has said.
I would more think he wants to take the Wagner group and go somewhere else. I mean, if they agree to supply him fully, remove the Russian leaders (no sign they are doing that now) would he really rush back into what he has clearly been calling an unnecessary blood bath?!
Commentary:
Thus, judging by the statements of the Russian authorities, Yevgeny Prigozhin actually agreed to the disbandment of his Wagner PMC and his voluntary exile to the territory of Belarus in exchange for the absence of criminal prosecution of himself and other rebels.
Rumors about possible reshuffles in the upper echelons of the army leadership are not confirmed at the moment.
Wagner was flushed to the toilet
Meanwhile, Ukraine has crossed the Dnipro river. Slava Ukraini!
TJL (Forum Supporter) said:
Anyone else think prigohzin is dead?
If you could ever be in a situation where you are walking around and already dead...
...he is going to need to be EXTREMELY careful from now on. He has embarrassed Putin, shown him to be weak... nobody puts Putin in a corner! (cue music and dance routine).
[ O2 Signal Beacon Activated ]
What is your assessment of the current situation? This HAS to represent a general weakening of the Russians. I don't really see much that would encourage Russian negotiations at this point. This has to had a general effect on moral for the Russians (which is already pretty bad). Would Putin actually replace the military leadership? Doesn't that show weakness?
I did see a group of people cheering the Wagners in Rostov. No idea how general the support is, but Wagner clearly has it's supporters, but in opposition to the army / Putin?
aircooled said:
TJL (Forum Supporter) said:
Anyone else think prigohzin is dead?
If you could ever be in a situation where you are walking around and already dead...
...he is going to need to be EXTREMELY careful from now on. He has embarrassed Putin, shown him to be weak... nobody puts Putin in a corner! (cue music and dance routine).
I really didn't think both Putin and Prighozin would walk away from this one, Prighozin better stay away from windows...and people with umbrellas...and keep a close eye on his underwear...
And in the meantime:
An Il-22М air-borne command post shot down in the Voronezh region
This happened in Russia, not Ukraine
Putin orders the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to neutralize the organizers of the “armed rebellion”
An oil depot on fire in Voronezh: it was hit by a Ka-52 helicopter
This was also in Russia!
Saw this at Yahoo:
Famous Belarusian airborne officer to Belarusian military: We must promptly decide what to do
Quote: "We do not know for sure what will happen tomorrow. Perhaps Prigozhin will win, conscript half the population of Russia and bombard Ukraine with cannon fodder...
We know something else: the pro-Russian path that Lukashenko has been leading the country on for all these years has led us to a dead end. We are now standing on the road with a barrier and a dead-end sign in front of us.
And we have to decide what to do next and decide it quickly.
Therefore, either we will use this historical chance and become a prosperous European country, or we will lose everything, and the name of the Republic of Belarus will remain only in books.
***********************************
And finally:
Road in Lipetsk Oblast dug up to stop Wagner Group from advancing on Moscow
Some may be true, none may be true.
