History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Advan046 said:

I am curious if this conflict will inform watching militaries on the value of drones. I am not for or against, just curious if, for instance if there is conflict between any groups with effective aircraft defense systems will it just be a drone fest? Will taking land only occur based on capacity to move the air defense and drone coverage over infantry? Or will anti drone coverage become the next mass deployed technology?

Department of Defense to pick Replicator drones by mid-December

Department of Defense Deputy Secretary Kathleen Hicks said choices of drones for the initial work in Replicator will be finalized in early December. She added, however, that there’d be no public announcement on the decision or detailing which companies will be involved.

etifosi said:

Advan046 said:

I am curious if this conflict will inform watching militaries on the value of drones. I am not for or against, just curious if, for instance if there is conflict between any groups with effective aircraft defense systems will it just be a drone fest? Will taking land only occur based on capacity to move the air defense and drone coverage over infantry? Or will anti drone coverage become the next mass deployed technology?

Department of Defense to pick Replicator drones by mid-December

Department of Defense Deputy Secretary Kathleen Hicks said choices of drones for the initial work in Replicator will be finalized in early December. She added, however, that there’d be no public announcement on the decision or detailing which companies will be involved.

With a name like that, someone either didn't watch Stargate SG-1, or learned the wrong lesson when they did.

With the number of 3d printers out there, if the US ever got really serious about making drones I would hate to guess how many we could be producing within six months...

The EU has voted to formally open talks with Ukraine and Moldova. Hungary abstained from the vote, but did not oppose it. Russia will, of course, find this objectionable, but less so than NATO would be. In any case, it will take years for anything to happen, and Russia may be thinking that it can resolve the conflict in its favor prior to that time.

The greater potential risk is that an independent, Western-oriented Ukraine joins the EU, but subsequently (by legal or nefarious means) finds its government aligning closer to Russia. It is unlikely the EU would simply boot them out unless the transfer of power was something on the order of a violent coup (everything requires unanimous votes, which are hard to come by). That could theoretically place a Russian-aligned government inside the EU, like Orban in Hungary, but worse. There are structural issues in the EU already (the aforementioned unanimous voting requirement, for one) that make it cumbersome now; adding one or two spoilers could cause the whole enterprise to grind to a virtual halt, or be compelled to make compromises that could be favorable to Russia in order simply to get anything done.

stroker said:

With the number of 3d printers out there, if the US ever got really serious about making drones I would hate to guess how many we could be producing within six months...

Maybe.  The US would first need domestic fabs to produce the communications, control, and optics chips that drones require, as well as domestic sources for the permanent magnet materials used in their motors.

There needs to be some back room talking with Orban along the lines of "there is going to be a lot of money to be made in Ukraine after this is over.  And it would be terrible for Hungary if it was left out of that."

In reply to Noddaz :

Orban is very consciously playing both sides of the street. He understands, probably more clearly than most Western European leaders, that the situation today is unlikely to be the situation tomorrow. To a degree, he also understands the fickle nature of Western democracies, and that the people speaking for them today may not be speaking for them tomorrow.

That said, the abstention was prearranged. Orban got up and left the room before the vote, as agreed. The only way that happened is because someone took him into a room and told him Hungary's EU subsidies were in danger if he blocked it. He'd much rather deal with a bunch of angry Western reporters and politicians than a bunch of angry Hungarian farmers.

Opti said:

02Pilot said:

The EU has voted to formally open talks with Ukraine and Moldova. Hungary abstained from the vote, but did not oppose it. Russia will, of course, find this objectionable, but less so than NATO would be. In any case, it will take years for anything to happen, and Russia may be thinking that it can resolve the conflict in its favor prior to that time.

The greater potential risk is that an independent, Western-oriented Ukraine joins the EU, but subsequently (by legal or nefarious means) finds its government aligning closer to Russia. It is unlikely the EU would simply boot them out unless the transfer of power was something on the order of a violent coup (everything requires unanimous votes, which are hard to come by). That could theoretically place a Russian-aligned government inside the EU, like Orban in Hungary, but worse. There are structural issues in the EU already (the aforementioned unanimous voting requirement, for one) that make it cumbersome now; adding one or two spoilers could cause the whole enterprise to grind to a virtual halt, or be compelled to make compromises that could be favorable to Russia in order simply to get anything done.

Is it fair to call Orban Russian-aligned? Like you said hes playing both sides which is smart politically, maybe hes just doing whats best for Hungary.

Fair point. Let's say out of step with the EU mainstream; I doubt, however, that a potential future shift in Ukraine's government would result in someone that nuanced. Ironically, if Ukraine really wants to survive as an independent entity, the closer they tie themselves to the EU and US, the harder it will be for them to maintain it. They would probably benefit in the long run from a leader who was willing to be more flexible and not so bound to any particular partner (Israel comes to mind as a model of how to survive in a bad neighborhood as an independent).

Speaking of Orban, while he was willing to allow talks to be opened, he vetoed 50bn Euros in aid to Ukraine, though there's a fair chance he will change his vote if Brussels offers him enough concessions.

nderwater said:

stroker said:

With the number of 3d printers out there, if the US ever got really serious about making drones I would hate to guess how many we could be producing within six months...

Maybe.  The US would first need domestic fabs to produce the communications, control, and optics chips that drones require, as well as domestic sources for the permanent magnet materials used in their motors.

Oh, for the days of old when Radio Shack was worth something...

The US still has quite a few fabrication facilities.  Just generally for higher end chips, not the cheap, less fancy stuff the drones would need.

eastsideTim said:

The US still has quite a few fabrication facilities.  Just generally for higher end chips, not the cheap, less fancy stuff the drones would need.

Most of the capacity for the low end stuff moved to Taiwan, where they will happily trade us whatever chips and drone parts we need for current military equipment. Equipment that we do have the capacity to make, and that Taiwan might have an immediate need for, if things got bad enough that we needed a lot of drones in a hurry.

The High Price of Losing Ukraine

Dec 14, 2023 - ISW Press

The United States has a much higher stake in Russia's war on Ukraine than most people think. A Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the United States cuts off all military assistance and Europe follows suit. Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO’s border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean. The Ukrainian military with Western support has destroyed nearly 90% of the Russian army that invaded in February 2022 according to US intelligence sources, but the Russians have replaced those manpower losses and are ramping up their industrial base to make good their material losses at a rate much faster than their pre-war capacity had permitted.

If Russia wins that absolutely guarantees they will pick another target for expansion after a few years of recovery. Best-case scenario, they might take a break from boots-on-the-ground invasions and pursue a peaceful absorption of Belarus until they're ready to take another country at gunpoint:

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-plan-for-a-new-russian-empire-includes-both-ukraine-and-belarus/

It would also give China a lot of ideas.

In reply to GameboyRMH :

I believe the Baltic states FULLY agree with you there!

(note the little displace "Russia")

No sign that the Russians have taken Avdiivka yet.  Pretty sure Putin required that to have happened already.  Maybe they will slow down the "Russian soldier slaughter conveyor belt" now?

Ukraine is clearly shifting to primarily defensive operations.  I have heard Zelenkyy is proposing a new offensive proposal for the spring, with the new weaponry that should be available then (specfically attack helicopters and F-16's).  Not sure if this is just positive talk from him, or if they really have a reasonable plan.  It did seem like the offensive this summer looked a bit like what western advisers might have suggested and was clearly motivated by pressure from the west.

Ukraine is preparing three lines of fortifications in case its partners are slow to provide weapons and money, - Deputy Ustinova.

Ukraine has began producing what looks to be a rather cheap, and likely not terribly stealthy drone.  Could be very useful for keeping Russian defenses busy.  Also might factor into the "economic war" concept of a $100,000 missile shooting down a $10,000 drone. 

Ukraine has begun production of its AQ-400 kamikaze UAV, capable of carrying a payload weighing up to 32 kg over 750 km - Defense Blog.

The AQ 400 Scythe is a long-range drone with a cruising speed of 144 km/h, designed to be launched from short runways or catapults, capable of carrying a payload of up to 32 kilograms (can be increased to 70 kg by reducing the flight range) . The Ukrainian manufacturer said it already produces 100 units per month and plans to increase production to 500 units per month.

In reply to aircooled :

They look pretty small and with that cruising speed I'm wondering if they TF they might just get filtered out by most radar systems.

If the wings and fuselage are made of some radar-transparent material like monokote over a balsa frame it might be more stealthy (and cheaper) than it looks.

Putin and Lavrov are doing their good cop/bad cop routine. Putin announced a few days ago that Russian objectives in Ukraine remain unchanged, implying his intent to keep fighting until they are achieved, with obvious severe costs to Ukraine in blood, treasure, and territory. Then Lavrov emerges a day or so later to suggest Ukraine seek negotiations with Russia sooner rather than later, since the fighting will continue and Ukraine will never be in as good a position as they are now.

Reading the tea leaves, some of this is playing on the dip in Ukrainian morale, heading into winter with the aid picture very much uncertain. But there may also be an indication that the costs are starting to tell on Russia - after all, why have Lavrov putting out this idea unless Russia saw benefits from doing so? Sure, the sides are still miles apart, so nothing productive is likely at this point, but we haven't heard one word from the Russians about negotiations for months. I do wonder how sustainable Russia's economic shift toward a war economy is in the long run, or more importantly, how much it will set back the civilian economy and how long it will take to reconvert and recover after the war.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If the US aid package goes through (talks there are said to be getting close to a resolution), I don't think you'll hear any more from Russia about this for a while, since the Ukrainians will feel empowered to stick to their hardline position, but if it fails to pass, expect more Russian suggestions that Ukraine should start talking for their own good (and from a position of relative and increasing weakness that the Russians can exploit).

Is there any chance of a negotiated settlement holding Russia back? They already had an agreement in place for the major powers (RU,US,UK) to protect Ukraine from outside aggression, and that's been ignored by all parties. I just don't see any other choice but for UA to arm themselves to the teeth or join NATO for any realistic chance of not returning to USSR vassal state situation, with all the kleptocratic decay that brings.

In reply to FJ40Jim :

I think you are hitting on an important point to most agreements, especially in some areas of the world.  You can have it on paper, but you better back it with an actual, realistic threat (something bad that will actually happen if you break it), or it will be seen as an empty agreement by many (a way to appease the others, with no actual intent to follow through if they don't want to).  This realistically is a feature of most all agreements, it's just the style of penalty that might change, and the risk that for one side that penalty may have a lesser or no effect (e.g. a UN sanction).

I suspect O2 can expand on the concept more.

Along those lines:

The EU adopted the 12th package of sanctions against Russia

The 12th package of sanctions provides for a ban on the direct or indirect import, purchase or transfer of diamonds from Russia, and also stipulates that exporters from the EU will, on a contractual basis, prohibit re-export to Russia and for use in the Russian Federation of sensitive goods and technologies when entering into agreements with third countries.

Also, another thing that has become obvious:  Trade / sales to Kurdistan from Germany (for example, I am sure there are other vectors) has greatly increased in that last year or so.  Clearly, much of what is being sold is being re-sold to Russia.  I wonder if extending sanctions in such a way would be even possible / reasonable.

In reply to FJ40Jim :

I've linked to and discussed this before, but the Budapest Memorandum is an empty shell of an agreement. Read it. See anything missing? Yup - an enforcement mechanism. The reason it's so toothless is that's the best deal that the parties involved could get, all while not wanted to find themselves committed to something so uncertain in 1992.

A well-armed Ukraine is a prerequisite for survival as an independent state. If they will recognize that and get the best deal they can with the Russians once they are reasonably secure, they might hold on, especially if they are willing to accept some sort of (enforceable) treaty-based neutrality. If they keep insisting on 100% of pre-2014 territory, we'll end up with a Korean situation with both sides staring across an armistice line for decades. Joining NATO just amps up the tension and risks uncontrolled escalation; maybe good for Ukraine - or at least they think so now - but bad for everyone else.

aircooled said:

I have heard Zelenkyy is proposing a new offensive proposal for the spring, with the new weaponry that should be available then (specfically attack helicopters and F-16's).  Not sure if this is just positive talk from him, or if they really have a reasonable plan.  It did seem like the offensive this summer looked a bit like what western advisers might have suggested and was clearly motivated by pressure from the west.

One rationale I heard for the poor performance of the summer offensive was that the Ukrainians were conducting a Western-style offensive without the prerequisite of western-style air superiority. I didn't think that F-16s would move the needle there?

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The only reason Russia would float peace talks is because they think this is as good as it gets for them. If they had a reasonable expectation that the future would be more in their favor, they'd just wait. 

In reply to CrustyRedXpress :

Absolutely.  Although it's also not terribly dissimilar to how the Russians would do it (which is how the Ukrainians were traditionally trained) and can be seen in how they are STILL trying to do it.

My suspicion is that their new plan may more involve making life as miserable as possible for the Russian and exploiting where they can with the addition capabilities. I cannot imagine they have realistic hopes of capturing significant ground at this point.  If they can make life miserable for the Russians until they give some / most of it back?  Who knows.

Also of note is that Russian are apparently massing equipment for a big push on Avdiivka.  The Ukrainians are not in a great position (mostly surrounded) but I suspect this final(!) push will also result in mass Russian loses.  It not like they don't know they are coming. It almost a simple matter of having enough drones and ATMs to pick off the vehicles as they move forward.