In reply to aircooled :
In reply to aircooled :
I'm not sure how much weight I would give to a news outlet best known for being sued because it published topless photos of Kate Middleton. Not saying their reporting is inaccurate, but I'd like to see some corroboration.
In reply to 02Pilot :
I haven't found any other source for this latest news but I have found some recent news that matches up with a lot of the issues mentioned:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2021199/russian-economy-meltdown-housing-developers-mortgages
https://en.thebell.io/silent-tech-layoffs-despite-massive-labour-shortages/
02Pilot said:In reply to stroker :
In short, it's just not a serious discussion. It's two guys who are in the business, and who have more historical knowledge than the average person, but their interpretations are based on wishful thinking and selective use of facts, not the reality of the situation in its full complexity.
I appreciate you giving it a try, O2. I felt like they were leaping to some unsupportable positions but couldn't categorize my concerns very well.
It's looking like a ceasefire may not proceed any deal? (They are still making slow, but expensive gains) Clearly the Russians are doing whatever they can possibly do to get as much as they can. The current Russian demands seem very likely not to be acceptable by anyone but the Russians. How much they will move is hard to say. I am still curious about any motivations from the US (sanctions etc).
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Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have been partially successful in holding the ceasefire proposal hostage as part of his efforts to extract preemptive concessions from US President Donald Trump in negotiations to end the war. Trump stated on March 17 that he plans to speak with Putin on March 18 and "want[s] to see if [he and Putin] can bring the war to an end."[1] Trump added that he and Putin will "be talking about land," "power plants," and "dividing up certain assets."[2] The United States and Ukraine agreed on March 11 to a 30-day ceasefire proposal that is contingent on Russia's "acceptance and concurrent implementation."[3] The proposal stated that Ukraine and the United States intend to name their negotiating teams and immediately begin negotiations toward an enduring peace — noting the distinction between the temporary ceasefire and future negotiations on a peace settlement. Putin rejected the temporary ceasefire proposal on March 13 and claimed that the cessation of hostilities "should be such that it would lead to long-term peace and eliminate the initial causes" of the war.[4] Putin thus rejected one of the main principles of the US-Ukrainian proposal — that the temporary ceasefire precedes formal negotiations to end the war. The US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal noted that the United States and Ukraine discussed the return of prisoners of war (POWs), detained civilians, and forcibly deported Ukrainian children — all of which will require future talks with Russia. The US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal did not mention talks with Russia about Ukrainian territory, energy infrastructure, or assets. Putin also suggested on March 13 that he may call Trump to discuss "issues" involved in the ceasefire proposal, such as Ukraine's continued ability to mobilize forces and receive military aid from partners and allies — issues notably not included in the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal. Putin is attempting to change the sequence of talks in order to push Trump into making preemptive concessions on issues that are not part of the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire but are part of Russia's war aims. The acceptance of these Russian demands in the context of negotiations for an immediate ceasefire would cede valuable US and Ukrainian leverage during future negotiations to secure a lasting peace in Ukraine.
In reply to aircooled :
The US still has a lot of levers to pull, mostly economic ones, whereas the Russians are pretty much out of options beyond escalating subversion efforts against the West (which will likely not go over well if discovered, at least in the US). I doubt Trump is going to be very patient with Putin, especially since Zelensky seems to have come around for the moment and is playing ball. If the US and Ukraine sign the minerals deal, pressure on Russia will be increased, both from the US on one side and the Chinese (who want to keep their leverage over the US supply of rare earths) on the other. Waiting may serve the Russians tactically, but strategically they don't have a lot of time to maneuver.
Some indications of a possible attack on the Kerch bridge. Let's see if they can hit it again!
So a phone call has happened between Putin an Trump in attempt to create the ceasefire. I do, really want to walk up to most of the news sources, slap them on the forehead and yell:
"THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THE CEASE FIRE, NOT THE TERMS OF THE RESOLUTION OF THE WAR YOU DOLT!!! UKRAINE DOES NOT NEED TO BE PART OF IT, THEY ALREADY AGREED TO THE CEASEFIRE!!!"
(sorry for the yelling, it's frustrating, please correct me if you think I am off on this assessment)
Russia is still being "Russia". They did agree to a cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure, but with no details at all and (e.g. essentially meaningless)... of course, both side immediately did large attacks on each other energy infrastructure... argh. (that might be a timing issue, but who knows, either way, I don't think Ukraine agreed to anything)
At some point, the US will likely have to start turning the screws. Russia will of course will likely create an unending series of excuses and reasonings... much like a child coming up with reason not to go to bed.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin did not accept the US-Ukrainian proposal for a temporary ceasefire along the frontline and reiterated his demands for a resolution to the war that amount to Ukrainian capitulation.[1] Putin and US President Donald Trump held a phone call on March 18.[2] The Kremlin's official readout of the call stated that Putin emphasized the need to address the "root causes" of the war.[3] Russian officials have repeatedly defined these root causes as NATO's eastward expansion and Ukraine's alleged violations of the rights of Russian-speaking minorities in Ukraine. Russian officials’ calls for the elimination of these "root causes" amount to Russian demands for Ukraine's permanent neutrality and the installation of a pro-Russian government in Kyiv.[4]
Putin demanded on March 18 that Ukraine stop mobilizing (i.e. recruiting and training) forces during a potential temporary ceasefire. Putin also called for a halt to all foreign military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine but did not discuss Russia's military support from North Korea, the People's Republic of China (PRC), and Iran.[5] Putin claimed that Russia and the United States should continue their efforts toward a peace settlement in "bilateral mode," excluding Ukraine or Europe from future negotiations about the war in Ukraine. Putin's demands on the March 18 call parallel the demands he made on March 13.[6]
ISW continues to assess that Putin is attempting to hold the temporary ceasefire proposal hostage in order to extract preemptive concessions ahead of formal negotiations to end the war.[7] ISW also continues to assess that Putin's demands for the removal of the legitimate government of Ukraine, the weakening of the Ukrainian military such that it cannot defend against future Russian aggression, and the denial of Ukraine's sovereignty and independence remain unchanged.[8] The persistence of Putin's demands for Ukraine's capitulation demonstrates that Putin is not interested in good-faith negotiations to pursue Trump's stated goal of achieving a lasting peace in Ukraine.
Trump and Putin agreed on a temporary moratorium on long-range strikes against energy infrastructure, but the exact contours of the moratorium remain unclear at this time.
Putin continues to hold the temporary ceasefire hostage, likely to extract further concessions from US President Donald Trump and delay or spoil negotiations for an enduring peace in Ukraine. Putin rejected a temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea but agreed to participate in negotiations on such an agreement, which Putin will likely use to delay or spoil negotiations for a permanent peace agreement....
[3] Russian officials have repeatedly defined these root causes as NATO's eastward expansion and Ukraine's alleged violations of the rights of Russian-speaking minorities in Ukraine. Russian officials’ calls for the elimination of these "root causes" amount to Russian demands for Ukraine's permanent neutrality and the installation of a pro-Russian government in Kyiv.[4]
And just how can Ukraine be permanently neutral and pro-Russian at the same time?
Russia says they will agree to a ceasefire on their terms. It appears that America wants a ceasefire and then an end to the war as a political win more than any other reason. They don't particularly care which side comes out on top so long as they can claim a political victory. In fact perhaps they wouldn't mind if the war resumed after a period so long as they could claim that at least they stopped it for a while.
In reply to Noddaz :
The other aspect that struck me was that Russia is demanding Ukraine not recruit or train during the cease fire or get arms from outside Ukraine, but I suspect Russia would not being held to that also(!). They are really coming up with some ridiculous demands, but the reality is they don't really have to stop, they are still making gains. The prime pain point for them at this point, seems to be economic, and that is the exact thing the US can give them more pain on. Bring the pain? I am very curious to see their reaction to any pressure.
If anyone wants to get a little behind-the-scenes look at how these negotiations can play out, here's a paper (I believe from the State Dept.) providing a nicely detailed but fairly brief look at the Korean War armistice negotiations. As you can see, there are many details to be worked out, and the conditions on the ground as well as the posture of the various nations involved can shift throughout. This will likely not be a rapid or linear process.
It's looking like the Ukrainians are agreeing to the ceasefire on energy infrastructure.
It's interesting to note that the Russians seem pretty noncommittal about the ground war, but seem very much into the stopping the air attacks. This would seem to indicate pretty clearly that those attacks are having a serious effect on them. Clearly Ukraine's most effective weapon at this point. Almost an error of admission on their part?
I think the Kerch bridge would still be an open target, so maybe they can concentrate on that.
If there is a re-starting of the air attacks, expect some massive ones, especially from the Ukrainians, since they have been producing massive numbers of drones. Or, maybe we will see a massive drone attack on the the Kerch bridge(?)
In reply to aircooled :
They just popped a bunch of air defenses in Crimea, apparently with FPV drones launched from drone boats, so I'm fully expecting further activity in that direction.
In reply to 02Pilot :
In reply to aircooled :
Are drone payloads enough to significantly damage the Kerch bridge? I'd think that would require a heck of a blast(s).
In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :
Yeah, no. The drones would be more for suppression and diversion. It's the Netpune anti-ship missiles and drone boats that would pack the punch (maybe Storm Shadows).
You never know though, they have been continuously developing new drones, so they might have a new bridge buster!
So, it looks like Putin was up to his old game for the phone call. Apparently he kept Trump waiting for about an hour from the agreed on time. Putin apparently commonly does this. Clearly a sign of not only disrespect, but a lack of seriousness for the discussion. Mr T is apparently pretty sensitive to disrespect... so we will see.
Apparently he kept Trump waiting for about an hour from the agreed on time. Putin apparently commonly does this.
That tactic is probably in Trumps book.
Graham Allison, an analyst I respect despite not always agreeing with his conclusions, has a solid piece in Foreign Policy that pulls no punches on where things stand at the moment. Not happy reading if you're a Ukraine supporter, but also very clear-eyed on the difference between the possible and the desirable.
So... clear as mud at this point. There is an attempt to exclude Ukraine from any negotiation as has been implied, but it's from the Russians. Also note the last point here. Disguising yourself as the enemy in a war has historically been a shooting offense.
The Ukrainians apparently hit Engles air force base (major bomber base) with some resulting very large explosions.
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Russia and Ukraine have not formally announced the implementation of the temporary long-range strikes ceasefire. Ceasefires take time to negotiate, execute, and monitor and require both sides to agree to cease attacks on specified targets at a specific time and date. Ceasefires also require both sides to agree to mechanisms to monitor the ceasefire and to address allegations of violations.
Official American, Ukrainian, and Russian statements indicate that the parties to the ceasefire have not yet finalized the details of the agreement.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is adding confusion about the timing and details of the ceasefire in an attempt to falsely blame Ukraine for violating the ceasefire before both countries have officially implemented the agreement. The Kremlin is attempting to posture Russia as already adhering to the temporary ceasefire while claiming that Ukraine is violating the ceasefire — even though both parties have not agreed on the details of the agreement or officially implemented the ceasefire.
The Kremlin continues to demand that Ukraine cede Ukrainian territory that Russia does not currently occupy and to set conditions to make further territorial demands.
The United States, Ukraine, and Europe continue to agree that Ukraine and Europe must be involved in peace negotiations to end the war, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts to exclude Ukraine and Europe from such negotiations.
Ukraine and Russia conducted a prisoner of war (POW) exchange on March 19.
The Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) Main Military-Political Directorate Deputy Head and Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander, Major General Apti Alaudinov, described recent Russian deception tactics that may amount to acts of perfidy — a war crime under the Geneva Convention. Alaudinov claimed in a March 19 interview with Kremlin newswire TASS that Russian forces recently used blue electrical tape identification marks during an operation in which Russian forces used an underground pipeline to covertly attack behind Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast and noted that Ukrainian forces also use blue electrical tape.[26] Alaudinov claimed that Russian forces used the blue tape in order to "prevent the Ukrainian military from understanding what was happening" and so that Ukrainian forces "would think that their own units were advancing." Alaudinov noted that Ukrainian drone operators would have "seen people with blue electrical tape" and would have "decided that these were their own units.
Another Battle Board, this one about the counter attack near Kharkiv, that you likely remember happening in real time. Certainly some things I did not realize or know at the time.
It's kind of looking like the Russian have no interest in a peace treaty. Just playing around and seeing what they can get for free? In the least, unless something develops or changes significantly, this is going to take a loooonnnggg time!
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The Kremlin is weaponizing ongoing ceasefire negotiations and deliberately misrepresenting the status and terms of a future ceasefire agreement in order to delay and undermine negotiations for a settlement to the war. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on March 21 that Ukrainian forces blew up the Sudzha gas distribution station in Kursk Oblast while withdrawing on the night of March 20 to 21 in order to discredit Russian President Vladimir Putin's "peace initiatives" and to provoke Russia.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff denied the Russian MoD's claim and stated that Russian forces shelled the station, causing a fire.[2] The Ukrainian General Staff warned that Russian authorities are attempting to mislead the international community and discredit Ukraine. Footage published on March 21 shows a fire at the station, although ISW cannot independently verify the cause of the fire.[3] Russian officials seized on the fire to claim falsely that Ukrainian forces violated the proposed 30-day ceasefire banning Russian and Ukrainian strikes on civilian and energy facilities, which is not yet formally in effect and terms of which remain disputed.[4] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Russian forces are "implementing" an order from Putin to refrain from striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure in accordance with the US ceasefire proposal.[5] Russian milbloggers observed that the ceasefire proposal has not come into force yet, however, and acknowledged that Russia has continued nightly strikes on Ukraine, including Ukraine's port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, in recent days.[6] Founder of the Kremlin-awarded Rybar telegram channel, Mikhail Zvinchuk, recently published a video of himself mocking US officials for believing that Russia is currently or intends to commit to the proposed temporary ceasefire in the area.[7] The exact contours of Putin's supposed order or a future moratorium on energy and infrastructure strikes between Russia and Ukraine remain unclear as of this report.
The Russians and Ukrainians had their discussions in Saudi Arabia. They did not apparently directly talk, but were in separate rooms and the US delegation went between them. Seems a bit silly, but, that is how it's done sometimes. The primary talks were apparently on the subjects of the halting of energy infrastructure attacks (previously agreed to by Ukraine) and some sort of cease fire in the Black Sea. I don't know if there have been any statements/agreements announced at this time (probably nothing solid realistically). A Black Sea cease fire could benefit both economically (e.g. grain from Ukraine, Oil from Russia).
One of the general conclusions someone came up with is that: Both side would rather continue the war, rather then settle for an unsatisfactory peace agreement.
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US and Russian delegations met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on March 24 following US–Ukrainian talks on March 23 about the details of temporary ceasefires on long-range strikes and in the Black Sea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 23 that the US–Ukrainian talks are "more technical in nature."[1] Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated on March 23 that the US–Ukrainian talks discussed proposals for the safety of energy and infrastructure facilities and that the talks were "productive and focused."
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Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a Black Sea airstrike ceasefire following peace talks in Saudi Arabia. The White House said Kyiv and Washington DC thrashed out an agreement to ensure safe passage of vessels in the Black Sea, where many ships export grain and other goods to countries in Europe, the Middle East and beyond.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-russia-ukraine-agree-black-34929590
Some more tactical developments: The Ukrainians used their new Mirage 2000's for the first time in a recent missile attack where they apparently were quite useful (likely mostly spotting and shooting down cruise missiles). The Mirage 2000 is essentially a contemporary (age wise) of the F-16, though clearly not as ground attack focused. The French did upgrade the electronics suite on them before delivery to make them more survivable against modern Russian systems (probably why they were found to be especially useful).
Ukraine’s Mirage 2000 jets intercept Russian missiles in first confirmed use
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/ukraine-mirage-2000-first-combat
It also looks like the Russians have come up with a new tactic for their drone attacks. Since the drones are a bit more controlled now (rather than just fly to the targets and drop). The gather the drones in a swarm away from the target, then fly them in at a higher altitude to dive on the target. This both keeps the drones out of reach of smaller arms (e.g. machine guns) for most of their attack and is more overwhelming when they do drop down.
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In the area of not entirely related news, the US conducted some proactive (as opposed to reacting to attacks) attacks on Houthi targets attempting to destroy primarily missile launchers and storage. Some leaders where targeted also. The Houthi's are changing all their communication protocols... so you can probably guess how some where likely targeted! [insert joke about some of you may know about this already! 
]
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