When is it time to panic

In reply to carguy123 :

Looks like the jury is still out on the cold weather thing. 
 

Tom Hanks caught it in Austrailia. It's summer there.  

Gary said:

...P.S. I had to travel to Mexico City for business in April, 2009. At the time this was the epicenter of Swine Flu, H1N1. I boldly went forth for my employer . But I did it after much thought and deliberation. Fortunately I didn't have any health problem. Ablolutely, some people will contract this virus Most will weather it just fine. A small percent with those "underlying" problems might not. But it doesn't seem to be any different than issues surrounding any other influenza strains. 

Worst case, with ~330 million US population and 1% mortality (I suspect ours will be much lower, but still) we end up with up to 3.3 *million* dead Americans. That's pretty substantial. No, really substantial. Will we get to that? I'm totally guessing (I'm an IT guy with no medical training) that it will be <1 million US, but that may be irrational optimism & faith in our health system. 

A couple weeks quarantine is just going to slow down the process, Since you can spread it before symptomatic, it's really tough to stop the spread. 

Greg Smith said:

Gary said:

...P.S. I had to travel to Mexico City for business in April, 2009. At the time this was the epicenter of Swine Flu, H1N1. I boldly went forth for my employer . But I did it after much thought and deliberation. Fortunately I didn't have any health problem. Ablolutely, some people will contract this virus Most will weather it just fine. A small percent with those "underlying" problems might not. But it doesn't seem to be any different than issues surrounding any other influenza strains. 

Worst case, with ~330 million US population and 1% mortality (I suspect ours will be much lower, but still) we end up with up to 3.3 *million* dead Americans. That's pretty substantial. No, really substantial. Will we get to that? I'm totally guessing (I'm an IT guy with no medical training) that it will be <1 million US, but that may be irrational optimism & faith in our health system. 

A couple weeks quarantine is just going to slow down the process, Since you can spread it before symptomatic, it's really tough to stop the spread. 

That would be with a 100% infection rate though. That isn't realistic.

SVreX said:

In reply to carguy123 :

Looks like the jury is still out on the cold weather thing. 
 

Tom Hanks caught it in Austrailia. It's summer there.  

I agree the jury is still out. Some forms of the common cold are coronaviruses and they go down in the summer but you can still catch it in the summer. But MERS is also a coronavirus and it started in the Middle East so ???

SVreX said:

In reply to carguy123 :

Looks like the jury is still out on the cold weather thing. 
 

Tom Hanks caught it in Austrailia. It's summer there.  

It's not that it can't be contracted in warmer weather, it's just that the rate of contracting the virus is likely to slow when fewer people are huddled together in buildings, breathing the same air while trying to stay warm. It's a generalization but in warmer months, more people spend more time outdoors, being active than in colder months. Historically, this leads to a slower spread of an illness.

If you're in Australia, and you're spending a ton of time indoors because the air quality is awful thanks to half the country burning for months, then it's not much different than being in Duluth in February. Plus, Hanks has likely traveled, or been around tons of people that have traveled a lot recently which increases his chances of being infected. Travel nodes, where thousands of people from anywhere and everywhere all come together is basically the human equivalent of the Chinese market where they think this virus originated. It's not like he's been holed up in a bunker, isolating himself and still contracted the virus.

93EXCivic said:

Greg Smith said:

Gary said:

...P.S. I had to travel to Mexico City for business in April, 2009. At the time this was the epicenter of Swine Flu, H1N1. I boldly went forth for my employer . But I did it after much thought and deliberation. Fortunately I didn't have any health problem. Ablolutely, some people will contract this virus Most will weather it just fine. A small percent with those "underlying" problems might not. But it doesn't seem to be any different than issues surrounding any other influenza strains. 

Worst case, with ~330 million US population and 1% mortality (I suspect ours will be much lower, but still) we end up with up to 3.3 *million* dead Americans. That's pretty substantial. No, really substantial. Will we get to that? I'm totally guessing (I'm an IT guy with no medical training) that it will be <1 million US, but that may be irrational optimism & faith in our health system. 

A couple weeks quarantine is just going to slow down the process, Since you can spread it before symptomatic, it's really tough to stop the spread. 

That would be with a 100% infection rate though. That isn't realistic.

Okay, go with Angela Merkel's 60-70%. Hey even 50% and cut the numbers in half. I'm pessimistic and expect 100% because of the way this spreads. Maybe that "missing" 30-40% is people who will get it and never show symptoms because their immune systems just deal with it. But when we see jumps with no identified vector and it can spread pre-symptoms, my gut feeling is that *everyone* will eventually be exposed. Maybe that's my inner pessimist, maybe not. But from a risk perspective, it's what my brain is working with. 

The great news here is the much lower percentage of US citizens who smoke compared to China. The crappy news is that we do have more obesity (and I myself am technically "morbidly obese") and that contributes to mortality similarly to smoking. 

When is the GRMLive episode of...

Tonight on GRMLive, what CRC products kill COVID19 on surfaces

Brakeklean for sure! 

10/10 would tune in. 

captdownshift said:

When is the GRMLive episode of...

 

Tonight on GRMLive, what CRC products kill COVID19 on surfaces

 

Brakeklean for sure! 

 

10/10 would tune in. 

I know brakekleen kills ants and wasps. Dont do E36 M3 for spiders.....

Dusterbd13-michael said:

captdownshift said:

When is the GRMLive episode of...

 

Tonight on GRMLive, what CRC products kill COVID19 on surfaces

 

Brakeklean for sure! 

 

10/10 would tune in. 

I know brakekleen kills ants and wasps. Dont do E36 M3 for spiders.....

What if you light it? Flaming spiders...  

Though I'm partial to WD-40 for that because the small red tube helps keep the flame away from the can. 

93EXCivic said:

Greg Smith said:

Gary said:

Most will weather it just fine. A small percent with those "underlying" problems might not. But it doesn't seem to be any different than issues surrounding any other influenza strains. 

Worst case, with ~330 million US population and 1% mortality (I suspect ours will be much lower, but still) we end up with up to 3.3 *million* dead Americans. That's pretty substantial. No, really substantial. Will we get to that? I'm totally guessing (I'm an IT guy with no medical training) that it will be <1 million US, but that may be irrational optimism & faith in our health system. 

A couple weeks quarantine is just going to slow down the process, Since you can spread it before symptomatic, it's really tough to stop the spread. 

That would be with a 100% infection rate though. That isn't realistic.

This is my major issue with all the hype and overstatement, and what makes me so cynical about the whole topic:

All the "OMG we're looking at a global extinction event with XX millions dead" predictions are based on absolutely worst-case scenarios with all the threat parameters cranked up to 11 and the assumption that no one at any level is going to make any positive change in their behaviour.

This is so patently ridiculous that all it accomplishes is to:

A) panic a large portion of the population into taking absurd actions like stampeding for toilet paper; or

B) jade a smaller portion of the population into dismissing it entirely and taking no precautions whatsoever

...neither of which is particularly appropriate or helpful.

93EXCivic said:

Greg Smith said:

Gary said:

...P.S. I had to travel to Mexico City for business in April, 2009. At the time this was the epicenter of Swine Flu, H1N1. I boldly went forth for my employer . But I did it after much thought and deliberation. Fortunately I didn't have any health problem. Ablolutely, some people will contract this virus Most will weather it just fine. A small percent with those "underlying" problems might not. But it doesn't seem to be any different than issues surrounding any other influenza strains. 

Worst case, with ~330 million US population and 1% mortality (I suspect ours will be much lower, but still) we end up with up to 3.3 *million* dead Americans. That's pretty substantial. No, really substantial. Will we get to that? I'm totally guessing (I'm an IT guy with no medical training) that it will be <1 million US, but that may be irrational optimism & faith in our health system. 

A couple weeks quarantine is just going to slow down the process, Since you can spread it before symptomatic, it's really tough to stop the spread. 

That would be with a 100% infection rate though. That isn't realistic.

Even if we go with a 50% infection rate, 1% would still be over 1.2M.  Which is quite a bit more than the estimated 61K deaths attributed to the flu during the 2018/19 season.

WEC round at Sebring canceled due to travel restrictions.  Screw sports ball, interfering with motorsport is serious stuff.  THAT WAS A JOKE.

I have to hand it too the Administration, I'm well known as not a fan, but in reality they are working hard and fast after a shaky start to do the right thing.  I can't say they necessarily went about the Eu travel ban in the best way, but it's probably the right thing to do to slow down the infection rate. I honestly feel that in six months time people will look back and say it was an over reaction, but I feel that it will be proof that an ounce of prevention was far better than a pound of cure which could have overwhelmed our health system.

I'm fine with all the school and university closings / going on line.  While that population isn't high risk, they are still carriers.

Here in Michigan our governor is asking companies to relax their sick paid time off policies, I hope that message comes from the feds.

While waiving co-pays for testing, they will still be intact for treatment.  My hope is the long term effect from this will be improvements in this countries acceptability and affordability of/to health care as well as improvements in PTO.  

On a personal level I'm not concerned.  Even if I get it I'm in the sub 1% mortality rate catagory.  I am on the other hand concerned for my mother who is here visiting from the UK and will turn 80 next month while here.  She has had life long asthma and now COPD, plus my 87 year old Father in law and 83 year old mother in law.  

I am skipping going to see the Squirrel Nut Zippers in concert tonight  which sucks.

Ian F said:

93EXCivic said:

Greg Smith said:

Gary said:

...P.S. I had to travel to Mexico City for business in April, 2009. At the time this was the epicenter of Swine Flu, H1N1. I boldly went forth for my employer . But I did it after much thought and deliberation. Fortunately I didn't have any health problem. Ablolutely, some people will contract this virus Most will weather it just fine. A small percent with those "underlying" problems might not. But it doesn't seem to be any different than issues surrounding any other influenza strains. 

Worst case, with ~330 million US population and 1% mortality (I suspect ours will be much lower, but still) we end up with up to 3.3 *million* dead Americans. That's pretty substantial. No, really substantial. Will we get to that? I'm totally guessing (I'm an IT guy with no medical training) that it will be <1 million US, but that may be irrational optimism & faith in our health system. 

A couple weeks quarantine is just going to slow down the process, Since you can spread it before symptomatic, it's really tough to stop the spread. 

That would be with a 100% infection rate though. That isn't realistic.

Even if we go with a 50% infection rate, 1% would still be over 1.2M.  Which is quite a bit more than the estimated 61K deaths attributed to the flu during the 2018/19 season.

I agree it is bad... We need to be taking actions to slow this thing so that we don't overwhelm the health care system as has happened in Italy and as happened at the start of the outbreak in Wuhan. If we don't the mortality rate especially at the start probably will be much higher then 1%. 

Greg Smith said:

93EXCivic said:

Greg Smith said:

Gary said:

...P.S. I had to travel to Mexico City for business in April, 2009. At the time this was the epicenter of Swine Flu, H1N1. I boldly went forth for my employer . But I did it after much thought and deliberation. Fortunately I didn't have any health problem. Ablolutely, some people will contract this virus Most will weather it just fine. A small percent with those "underlying" problems might not. But it doesn't seem to be any different than issues surrounding any other influenza strains. 

Worst case, with ~330 million US population and 1% mortality (I suspect ours will be much lower, but still) we end up with up to 3.3 *million* dead Americans. That's pretty substantial. No, really substantial. Will we get to that? I'm totally guessing (I'm an IT guy with no medical training) that it will be <1 million US, but that may be irrational optimism & faith in our health system. 

A couple weeks quarantine is just going to slow down the process, Since you can spread it before symptomatic, it's really tough to stop the spread. 

That would be with a 100% infection rate though. That isn't realistic.

Okay, go with Angela Merkel's 60-70%. Hey even 50% and cut the numbers in half. I'm pessimistic and expect 100% because of the way this spreads. Maybe that "missing" 30-40% is people who will get it and never show symptoms because their immune systems just deal with it. But when we see jumps with no identified vector and it can spread pre-symptoms, my gut feeling is that *everyone* will eventually be exposed. Maybe that's my inner pessimist, maybe not. But from a risk perspective, it's what my brain is working with. 

The great news here is the much lower percentage of US citizens who smoke compared to China. The crappy news is that we do have more obesity (and I myself am technically "morbidly obese") and that contributes to mortality similarly to smoking. 

I'm obese. Struggle with blood pressure.  I'm also 71 working on 2, and I have 529 walking Petri dishes climb on and off my bus every day.  For my funeral••••

I came across this article yesterday that talks about the panic buying and why people are coming home with toilet paper: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/heres-why-people-are-panic-buying-and-stockpiling-toilet-paper.html

TL;DR is that basically people are trying to exert control over something they have no control over.  Buying stuff makes us feel like we're doing something plus buying things makes us feel good.  Toilet paper is sold in giant packages that are easy for us to carry and relatively inexpensive so it makes us feel like we're buying a LOT of something which makes us feel like we're REALLY doing something. 

Apologies if it's already been posted, but I thought it was pretty interesting.

In reply to 93EXCivic :

Given the average American's general tendency to never do what they're told, I fear it'll be higher than 1% as well. 

So, The Dancer's sister is a respiratory therapist up in WI where her family is from (and most still live), and yesterday for the first time The Dancer asked her sister how things were going up there in her hometown and what her sister's take on all of this was. She said that they were seeing a lot of the same things going on there as elsewhere with regards to people hording supplies, noting that 'it was like people were doomsday prepping' (to which I replied, "Sooooo, pretty much normal behavior for rural Wisconsin?"). She also said that one of the doctors she works with tested positive for the virus, so said it's probably inevitable that she's going to get it at some point.

Regarding the overall response to the disease, what she was was rather interesting. She said that from her point of view the practical measures being taken were smart- but also extremely frustrating because of her overall experience. She said that they have people die there regularly from the flu and other diseases that can be similarly prevented by the measures (even just the intense push for washing hands and disinfecting) that are being taken now for Covid-19 and that it's frustrating that it's not a priority all the time.

Doom Eternal comes out next Friday, so I'm not sure I see a reason to leave the house for the following two weeks anyway.

Duke said:

All the "OMG we're looking at a global extinction event with XX millions dead"

Ummm, do you have a source for that? I have literally not watched or read any news with anything like this kind of speculation.

z31maniac said:

Duke said:

All the "OMG we're looking at a global extinction event with XX millions dead"

Ummm, do you have a source for that? I have literally not watched or read any news with anything like this kind of speculation.

OK, I admit, I'm overstating the overstatement for dramatic effect, but I am a poster on a car forum, not a media outlet or government agency.

Duke said:

z31maniac said:

Duke said:

All the "OMG we're looking at a global extinction event with XX millions dead"

Ummm, do you have a source for that? I have literally not watched or read any news with anything like this kind of speculation.

OK, I admit, I'm overstating the overstatement for dramatic effect, but I am a poster on a car forum, not a media outlet or government agency.

 

Time to make fun of duke- for overstating the overstating media, doing that for dramatic effect.  Oh, the irony.  

While there may be some people over reacting, the fact that we have real explanations of why to do stuff (wash your hands, avoid big crowds, etc) has helped over the last 24 hours.  No reason to overly go back an harsh out the response- we have plenty of time for that later.  Our Governor here in  MI had a pretty solid press conference yesterday afternoon, including both the health and labor leaders of the state.  

But now, do your best to keep your contacts small, your hands (and therefore face) clean, and see if you can work from home.  We have a section meeting about that later today.

How many Americans are "celebrities"?

Maybe 10,000? Or about .003% of Americans? Seems reasonable.

So why do we have a much higher rate of celebs getting covid19?

Even if you only count 3 out of 1500 or so, that's .2 percent. Or 100 times the rate. But I'd argue that the politicians getting it are also semi celebs, so that makes the rate worse.

On a totally different topic, I've heard that some research is showing that some humans seem to have a genetic mutation that gives them resistance to covid19. If that happens to be true, then that is pretty solid evidence that this isn't new at all, only newly discovered.

Some things to worry about...

The NBA star that was tested positive- Rudy Gobert- played a game here in Detroit on Sunday.  Who got exposed Sunday? How far out does that go now?

Hard disease to predict when you should limit or cut off social contact- here in Michigan, it was done yesterday afternoon, and in hindsight, a week earlier would have been a better time.

Somethings taken out of our hands (probably)- cruise lines are suspending operations.  I'm betting our upcoming cruise gets canceled, as they will be next to do that.

One thing is for sure. This is making me even more glad I work in a shop with a couple other guys and not an office full of people.