When is it time to panic

Harvey said:

Did you read all the way to the end?

There are some who have said that this virus is only transmitted from the hand to the face and that's simply not true. We have compelling data on influenza transmission, which this is just like the coronavirus in terms of ongoing transmission. And, frankly, hand washing may play some role in this, but not nearly as much as people think. It's all about the air and the air you're breathing

I don't think the CDC disagrees on this point.
 

I think we are in agreement then.  My point is that it is essentially the same mechanisms as the "common" flu (which can, in some cases be transmitted by air), and should not be feared more then the flu in regards to the transmission method.  That is why I posted the CDC flu transmission info.

You can certainly get it "in the air" but it should be made clear under what circumstances, and it is pretty likely that is not likely under all conditions of infection (e.g. just breathing, when infected, but not showing any symptoms).  As I said, if there is more specific info on this (which could be common flu info) I would love to see it posted.

STM317 said:

93EXCivic said:

STM317 said:

No place has seen anything close to 50% infection rate though. How long would it take to get to a 50% infection rate? Years? Decades? How much will be learned and applied toward improving the survivability of COVID-19 in that time? China is currently sitting at 56.1 cases per 1 million citizens after 3 months, and the number of new cases has declined sharply. 5-20% of the US population gets the flu each year,  but there are probably a lot of repeat offenders in that group. People that get the flu more often due to age and health concerns. To get to a point where 50% of the population has had COVID-19, could easily take 10 years.

If we extrapolate China's numbers for cases/1 mil of population, we'd have 18,513 people contract the virus in the US. 1% mortality rate means 185 deaths over the next 3 months if the rate of infection and mortality both follow the same pattern as China.

So far, the US is seeing just 4.1 cases per 1 million citizens, but that's expected to climb as more testing kits become available, and some suspected cases are confirmed.

But China took measures that probably are not possible in the US so I am not sure that China is a great thing to base our thoughts around as far as how transmissable the virus is. I also feel like 50% is probably overstating it but using flu here is bad comparison as there is a flu shot which a not insignificant part of the population has. Also we have some antibodies built up from previous exposures to the flu.

But even if it is 20% and it seems in general about 20% of cases need more care that could quickly overwhelm our health care system. We have even less spare beds and respirators then Italy so a heavy localized breakout could be very bad.

Yeah, you could also say that China has a higher percentage of the population that smokes, that their government didn't communicate much if anything with their citizens until the situation was dire, and that they tend to have much higher population density than the US. Which all makes it a perfect breeding ground for a virus like this. My crystal ball is no better than anyone else's, but I'd bet that it's not quite as bad in the US.

If we look at Hubei province specifically, as basically the worst case scenario and saw similar numbers in the US this is what it would look like (I think you actually did this math once already in one of these virus threads):

According to the WHO's most recent update on the virus, (sorry it's a PDF) Hubei province has a population of 59170000 people. There have been 67707 confirmed cases, with 2986 of those resulting in death. That means that 4.4% of those infected in Hubei died (as ground zero it took time to understand what was occurring and react, therefore has a mortality rate 1% higher than the overall rate of 3.4%). And it means that 0.11% of the population was a confirmed case, and 0.005% of the population died.

Extrapolate those numbers to the US and we'd have 363,000 confirmed cases and 16,500 deaths in 3 months. As you noted when you did similar math, that's about average for a flu season. Regardless of how you feel the US gov has responded to this situation, they've had a 3 month head start that China didn't get where they've known about this and had time for the entire international community to learn, react, and plan. I think that fact, coupled with the lower population density, likely means that the US won't be impacted as badly as Hubei has been. I'm not saying that it shouldn't be taken seriously, and I'm happy that so many businesses seem to be acting proactively to try and head the situation off. But it's easy to lose perspective and jump to conclusions when we read headlines about more and more infections, closures, and people claiming 50+ percent of the population will get it. That might eventually be true, but it's not going to happen in the next couple of months.

Some people are going to get sick. Some of those will die. It's not going to be fun, but I'm not seeing anything

That seems highly optimistic at this point. I guess we will see though.

"Make sure you, and the people around you, follow good respiratory hygiene. "

And  how do you control the people around you ?

aircooled said:

Harvey said:

Did you read all the way to the end?

There are some who have said that this virus is only transmitted from the hand to the face and that's simply not true. We have compelling data on influenza transmission, which this is just like the coronavirus in terms of ongoing transmission. And, frankly, hand washing may play some role in this, but not nearly as much as people think. It's all about the air and the air you're breathing

I don't think the CDC disagrees on this point.
 

I think we are in agreement then.  My point is that it is essentially the same mechanisms as the "common" flu (which can, in some cases be transmitted by air), and should not be feared more then the flu in regards to the transmission method.  That is why I posted the CDC flu transmission info.

Right, but that means it's highly contagious. The flu is buffered by people getting vaccinations and yet this past flu season in the US alone we've had an estimated 30-40 million cases.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/09/813641072/u-s-flu-season-beginning-to-ease-modelers-say

It's also not the same type of virus as the flu and we don't know enough about who is affected more or less by it yet.

So, it's very easily transmitted and no one has any immunity to it. That's the real issue. Old people get a flu shot for this very reason.

californiamilleghia said:

"Make sure you, and the people around you, follow good respiratory hygiene. "

And  how do you control the people around you ?

with hand sanitizer before and after

californiamilleghia said:

"Make sure you, and the people around you, follow good respiratory hygiene. "

And  how do you control the people around you ?

By absenting yourself from people who do not follow good hygiene.

Geez, OKC is on it's way to a full shut down. Classes canceled, sports canceled, even some tap rooms for breweries and such are shutting down. 

This is really bizarre. 

In reply to Harvey :

Where do you live?

Harvey said:

That seems highly optimistic at this point. I guess we will see though.

A comparison to the hardest hit spot on the planet, where they had zero warning and were caught completely off guard is optimistic? Yikes.

Apexcarver said:

californiamilleghia said:

"Make sure you, and the people around you, follow good respiratory hygiene. "

And  how do you control the people around you ?

with hand sanitizer before and after

Signature checks out.

STM317 said:

Harvey said:

That seems highly optimistic at this point. I guess we will see though.

A comparison to the hardest hit spot on the planet, where they had zero warning and were caught completely off guard is optimistic? Yikes.

I'm thinking we disagree about how prepared the USA is to deal with this virus. At this point I would categorize us as almost completely unprepared. There isn't any real need to discuss that though, because we will see how it plays out. I honestly hope I am wrong.

Well, bingo is a go for tonight.  We'll see what attendance looks like.  I've got the cleaning crew disinfecting all the table tops and door surfaces and making sure there's plenty of soap and paper towels in the bathrooms.

AngryCorvair said:

In reply to Harvey :

Where do you live?

Connecticut.

Curiousity question, as everything I've seen so for when I look at the CDC site for treatment is about how not to be contagious.

What is the kind of supportive care required in the case of infection serious enough to require hospitalization?  Respiratory support of some kind?

Talked with my coworker whose inlaw family got sick. His wife's brother got tested in NY and is confirmed to have the virus. The rest are here in CT waiting for tests. There are at least 20 of them sick after that going away party where the guy that infected them showed no symptoms at all and later tested positive. No one other than the brother has been able to get tested because there is no one able to do tests here in CT.

So, there's panic buying in various places around SE Michigan.  One guy's wife's office just closed and sent everyone to work from home for the next two weeks (no cases or sick people).  She stopped at Meijer on the way home for some groceries, had to wait in line for over an hour and yes, they were out of TP.  Another guy who's is working from home because of his kids went to COSTCO and said the lines went the full length of the store.

I texted my wife and she said there were no lines or shortages in Trader Joes or the local stores she went into today and our Wholefoods Amazon Prime delivery arrived in a very short time after ordering so it seems to be very localized.

My son is already on his way home for the rest of the semester. With the rate of positive tests in my area I am sure the local schools will be closed by next week. At least there are enough tests in the state where a live. The state where I work is another story.

Ok , I found this from an RN on Twitter yesterday on what to do if you do get the virus and are staying at home , 

Seems pretty logical ,  but if you see anything that does not sound right please comment ,  the hospital beds will be saved for people who are very sick , not the 1000s who can take care of themselves !

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237711448064884739.html

Stay safe

In reply to Adrian_Thompson :

I can wait to head to Kroger for food.  But other than daily stuff, we are prepared.  Not with hoarding amounts, but with enough for a few weeks w/o interaction.  Waiving to our neighbors through windows and stuff....

Harvey said:

STM317 said:

Harvey said:

That seems highly optimistic at this point. I guess we will see though.

A comparison to the hardest hit spot on the planet, where they had zero warning and were caught completely off guard is optimistic? Yikes.

I'm thinking we disagree about how prepared the USA is to deal with this virus. At this point I would categorize us as almost completely unprepared. There isn't any real need to discuss that though, because we will see how it plays out. I honestly hope I am wrong.

Is there any place that's better prepared for this? Seems like everybody is pretty much caught with their pants down, but nobody as badly as the Chinese because they had to deal with it first. Ultimately, I don't care how well prepared or not a country is, what matters is the rate of survival and I just don't see it being worse here than it has been any other place on the planet.

Adrian_Thompson said:

Another guy who's working from home because of his kids went to COSTCO and said the lines went the full length of the store.

Yep, my T.V. conked out and my wife called me from Costco a few minutes ago while picking up a new one. Line of people waiting to get in wraps around the building…check-out line zig zagging throughout the store.

Added later…

Ventura County which is in Southern California.

In reply to STM317 :

We could have done better. Just because a classmate got a D doesn't mean a C is something to be proud about.

I think a better marker than the rate of survival is rate of infection. The survival rate in the US hasn't been stellar so far.

TheGloriousW said:

In reply to STM317 :

We could have done better. Just because a classmate got a D doesn't mean a C is something to be proud about.

 

I think a better marker than the rate of survival is rate of infection. The survival rate in the US hasn't been stellar so far.

We're also not aggressively testing either, are we?  The infection rate may be much higher than is reported because we aren't able to test very much.

In reply to TheGloriousW :

Right, but if there's a pop quiz that nobody saw coming, and everybody in the class gets Cs or worse, then it was a pretty damn hard pop quiz. Has anybody else been better prepared for this? Honest question because I'm really not bothered enough to follow how each country has responded to this. I'm not suggesting that I feel we couldn't be more prepared, just that I don't think anybody else really has been either. It seems like it's pretty much caught every first world country off guard based on what I've seen.

They could've locked down borders, and prevented all international travel, and not let anybody back into the country for a month I guess, but then you'd have people complaining that it was a draconian overreaction that was un-American and repressing freedoms and stuff. You can't make everybody happy.

I'm a little panicked now.

No formula 1.  No sports car racing.  No hockey.  No baseball.  No soccer.  No supercross.  No basketball. 

What the he'll am I going to watch for entertainment?