Is Wayne Carini Joking?

I was visiting the dentist the other day and the Dec. 2014 issue of Forbes Life magazine was in the waiting room. Wayne Carini has a small column to discuss what's hot and what's not in the classic car world, I suppose to give clueless high rollers an idea of what to invest in. To my amazement he put a Buy Now recommendation on the Volvo P1800, all models from '61 to '73, with the following statement: "Prices are now on the rise, and $100,000 could soon be the norm." Is he joking? He's supposed to be an expert. Does anybody here really think that's going to happen? I certainly don't.

(Disclosure: I owned a '68 1800S for six years back in the seventies, and while I liked the styling I found it to be overweight, underpowered, have extremely heavy steering, and handle like a truck).

"Prices are now on the rise, and $100,000 could soon be the norm."

Translation, I know of several restored or original examples that I can buy for cheap and make a huge profit!! Although, he seems to have an affinity for the P1800.

I've always said, subtract 40-50 years from the current year and you'll find the sweet spot of guys in their 60's looking to rekindle their youth. 70's cars are hot right now, and I figure in the next 5, it'll start creeping into the 80's cars.

-Rob

We and Wayne Carini run in different circles.

914Driver wrote: We and Wayne Carini run in different circles.

And for you, that's I'm sure a good thing! He sounds like a serious poser.

An 1800ES went for $92,000 at auction a few months ago. It was a very nice example, but I don't think it would have won the concours at a national level Volvo club meet.

In response to VClassics, I don't think the auctions are a good gauge of where prices for ordinary classics are going. I believe that ES sale was an anomaly. I remember a TR4 going for $90k+ at a high end auction a few years ago. Today excellent TR4s are selling in the teens and low twenties. Carini stated that $100K for P1800s could be the norm very soon. With the buyer demographics as they are today, I just don't see that happening. And I actually think it's irresponsible for him to state that in Forbes Life.

Sure, that auction ES is definitely an outlier. I think that's an example of the difference between what a collector will pay for a car as opposed to someone who's buying one to drive it. Volvo only built 8077 ES cars, so maybe those are getting rare enough to have some collector value. Still, a very nice one probably wouldn't bring $20K from a driver -- prices have about doubled in the past five years or so, but there's gotta be a limit.

Yup, I owned a '68 1800s back in the early eighties in very, very nice shape. Basically a 122 with a sportier body. Nice interior, tiny shifter, great dash, tighter to work on than the 122 though. Nice cars, but not an Alfa. 100K? 'um yeah, maybe for a perfect museum piece or Irv Gordon's. As was said auction craziness in other words you aren't selling yours for that.

Wayne Carini comes off as a bit of a tool on TV but he is widely regarded as a genuine nice guy by most that encounter him in person - including several regulars on this board.

As for a 6-figure P1800, well if this pile can sell for $57,000, then anything is possible.

I've met Wayne several times, and like bludroptop said--- he's a very nice, very genuine guy. He's also extremely knowledgeable.

Keep in mind, when he says the P1800 will reach $100K, he's talking about #1 examples. Basically perfect cars---even better than they were when they left the factory. How many of those do you see around?

The P1800 shares a ton of styling cues with 50s era Ferraris. (just look at that grille) For the guy looking for a SWB 250 on the cheap---- the Volvo makes sense. Maybe not $100K sense.....but when a Fiat Jolly brings six figures--- who knows were the values will go.

I too have met Wayne Carini (Lime Rock a couple years ago when he was an esteemed judge at the Sunday in the Park car show), and once came close to buying a hot rod Triumph Herald from F40 Motorsports (the only vehicle in his inventory that was reasonably priced). I agree, he seems to be an OK guy, and knowledgeable. Joe Gearin states that Wayne is obviously referring to #1 examples, basically perfect cars that are better than when they left the factory. Maybe so. But he didn't qualify his statement as such, and his audience wasn't your typical knowledgeable classic car enthusiasts ... like us. He was talking to the readers of a rag catering to high roller investors. In fact he shared the page with other so-called experts giving their thoughts on investing in wine, watches, and fine antiques. I just don't think that his automotive related recommendation was as expert a recommendation as he may be capable of offering.

Joe Gearin wrote: Keep in mind, when he says the P1800 will reach $100K, he's talking about #1 examples. Basically perfect cars---even better than they were when they left the factory. How many of those do you see around?

That is very true but unfortunately the common person will see this and think their rusted parts car is worth that much also.

I sometimes believe that some of the big name car dealer/appraisers will say something like this to try to drive a market up.
Nothing against Wayne Carrini, I like his show and many of his comments.

Never happen ! ! Makes no real world sense whatever. Cars going for that money are investments and too many that make/model were made to warrant that kind of pricing on a regular basis. No real racing history and no continuation or development of that make/model for an interest to develop.

Never gonna happen no matter HOW many of them he has stashed away.

It could very well happen at auction. Collector car auctions are not the "real world" and do not reflect the values a mass produced car is worth as a car.

Yeah-but ... and I keep repeating this ... that's not what Carini stated to the readers of Forbes Life magazine. From what we know about these cars it appears that his advice is misleading to the audience. That's the problem, and that's why the title of this thread is "Is Wayne Carini Joking?" Informed classic car enthusiasts like us might interpret his investment advice to less informed non-enthusiasts to be: buy a (way overpriced) $40K P1800 right away and you'll be looking at a tidy profit in no time because prices are rising fast and I'm predicting that $100K could soon be the norm because I'm the expert (I must be the expert because I have this column in Forbes Life, right?). As the Forbes Life automotive investment expert he has a responsibility to be truthful. Was he?

In reply to Gary: Yes, that's a ot of how I took it as well.

"As the Forbes Life automotive investment expert he has a responsibility to be truthful . . . "

I say NO ! HE was just feathering his own or a friend's nest. There just aren't the criteria in place to elevate that car to the status that he's "predicting."

No long storied race history. No design pedigree. No limited handcrafted build quality. No extreme want or craving or collectability for that mark/body style.

It's a Volvo with a cute body. Nothing else.

The guy is just expressing his own opinion or desire, not presenting a viable investment or prediction.

But . . . the rich do whatever they want and invest in whatever they want. Look what happened with that old VW Bus at auction. His world and his friend's worlds aren't real. It's a damned shame that they quite often affect and even control our worlds.

He provides Buy, Hold and Sell recommendations, as do the other experts for the other categories. There's no disclaimer by Forbes, and Forbes titles the page as "what to buy, hold and sell this season - one expert recommendation at a time." So yes, indeed, he is making a recommendation and Forbes is endorsing it. Maybe I'm at an advantage on this since I'm the only one who has seen the article. (I ripped the page out of the magazine and took it with me. Didn't want my dentist to make a foolish classic car investment).

BTW, Carini's Hold recommendation was 1983 Porsche 911 SC cabrio, and the Sell recommendation was Mercedes 190SL, both for plausible reasons unlike the Buy recommendation.

Harsh crowd! I don't know, he may not be too far off. I'm sure he was talking about #1 examples, and who knows what people are going to pay for one. There are plenty of other cars that go for way more than I ever thought possible (look at 356 and early 911 prices). And they did build the early ones more of less by hand in England. Of course they are the crappiest build quality, so there you go.

In truth, no one is going to read that piece and dump $40k in a car they know nothing about simply because they read it in a magazine. If so, they have other issues that need to be dealt with, or have so much money it's not a problem anyway. I've seen plenty of predictions in magazines over the years (even in Classic and GRM), some good, some not so much, and none ever made me say, "hey, I really better buy this now." If its in a magazine, its entertainment not the advice to take to the bank. Kind of like news today.

What does this say about us if we pick apart a man and an article simply because he states his opinion? Ours may vary, and we may not like it, but I doubt very seriously if he has the power to sway an entire market.

Yes, be that as it may, and I'm not trying to be a jackass about this. I really do believe that Wayne Carini is one of us. But unlike most of us he has a national forum and is respected as an expert on the subject of classic cars, and as such can influence buying decisions of the unwitting. And I also feel that he let us down as an automotive fraternity with this charade, and wanted to point that out in this forum. As a classic car enthusiast I'm disappointed about what he did.

Not that I think it, but wouldn't it be funny if $100,00 1800's came to pass?

Funny indeed. Right up there with $40K Triumph Spitfires!

Gary wrote: Yes, be that as it may, and I'm not trying to be a jackass about this. I really do believe that Wayne Carini is one of us. But unlike most of us he has a national forum and is respected as an expert on the subject of classic cars, and as such can influence buying decisions of the unwitting. And I also feel that he let us down as an automotive fraternity with this charade, and wanted to point that out in this forum. As a classic car enthusiast I'm disappointed about what he did.

But what if he is actually right? I don't know about you, but I am not involved in the day to day buying and selling classics in the same sense as he is. Do we know for sure they will not be close to that in the future? Do you know what his clients are will to pay? At this point, it is his opinion and that is what the magazine pays him for. Like I said, whether we believe it or not is irrelevant.

I've seen plenty of cars that go for way more than I would ever pay, including a few I've owned. I used to own a '70 Boss 302 for instance, and to me, it'd never be more than a $10k car, as I view as a warmed over fastback Mustang. To others it's worth a lot more. Same for my old GTV Alfa.

My point is, many here are getting bent out of shape for something that may or may not happen in the future, and because one guy may or may not believe it.

He's not right on this prediction.

BTW, I made HalfDork status today. I'll break out the champagne tonight.

Congratulations!!!