The Muscle Car "Bubble"

Is there a "Muscle car bubble" that's inflating the price of those V8 land-yachts from the 60's and 70's? and when will the dang thing "pop"?

I was just poking around craigslist and thought I'd see what old Chevy iron was going for these days and HOLY SMOKES! Now granted I only looked at the "Three-C's" (Chevelle, Camaro, and Chevy II) but still, this is bleeding stupid expensive!

http://seattle.craigslist.org/sno/ctd/4229783311.html

Kompact Kar Korner said: 1966 CHEVROLET CHEVELLE - - $38,999 VEHICLE DESCRIPTION: Here is a beautiful Original 1966 Chevelle SS 396 with documentation! Build sheet shows sold New in Hanford California as a GM employee purchase plan. Factory equipped with Air conditioning, Tinted glass, L35 396 Just rebuilt and less than 200 miles. Powerglide automatic, PS, PB and steel wheels with Mag look full wheel hubcaps on redlines. Now also running American racing wheels on goodyear radials as pictured. Awesome Body, Trunk, frame and underbody - No Rust or patch panels. Check out the close up pictures of the trunk gutters you can see the Body by Fisher part numbers. This is an excellent investment you can drive and enjoy!

When the heck did these things get so danged expensive? Mrs. Hungary thinks it's just because they're "trending" on those "chasing classic cars" shows, but dang if I still cant believe it.

I could have swore that before I left for Hungary (about 4-years ago) I had found about 5 or 6 good examples that weren't quite in the "teens" yet.

Anyhoo, I just thought I'd see what you guys thought.

PS I will admit that I am familiar with this lot, and they tend to price their inventory pretty high, but most of the other examples on craigslist followed the same trend. See: http://seattle.craigslist.org/tac/ctd/4227343729.html

I blame Barrett Jackson for the price inflation.

Now that you mention it, I got quite a chuckle from all the different "this is 1 of 378 Chevelles with this option code..." posts that were in the listings.

Example listing

I can't blame them for trying, but can we at least try to be a little more realistic? I could get my E-type (my dream car) for what they're asking for a Chevy.

The bubble will burst when kids who think that Fast and Furious was a classic are in their late sixties.

Lotta baby boomers who drove those cars (or wanted to) as kids are flush w/ cash now and in the market, it's been said to relive part of their yoof. Been prolly twenty years since I first remember hearing non-car guys buying into classic/ muscle cars as 'investments'... kinda ruined it for me right there.

I had the chance as a kid to buy some great iron. One I still highly regret was a 396/ 375 4-speed Chevelle for cheap. Not that I need to spend $40K on one now. $40K will buy one helluva late model muscle car.

There have been a number of bubbles in classic car pricing over the years, but I don't think we're in one now. If that Chevelle is as good as it's represented $38k is probably not a bad price. Chances are it would have been a lot more expensive back in 2007.

Gas Monkey gets paid!!!!!!

Once they walk away from the car building reality shows you can probably negotiate it a little better.

If you think those Chevys are bad, go price 68-70 Chargers. A 318 "driver" that needs work is a $20K car...

Hungary Bill wrote: Now that you mention it, I got quite a chuckle from all the different "this is 1 of 378 Chevelles with this option code..." posts that were in the listings. Example listing I can't blame them for trying, but can we at least try to be a little more realistic? I could get my E-type (my dream car) for what they're asking for a Chevy.

Well, maybe a 2+2 with automatic transmission needing a full restoration or with a 'Murican V8 in it. Perhaps you haven't checked the price of E-type's lately!

Back in the early '80's I bought my '70 Boss 302 for something around $2k maybe. Now it needed work, don't get me wrong, but if you were to buy one now in the same condition now it would be maybe $50k.

I also bought my '67 390, 4 speed Cougar for $1k. I remember selling it a few years later and people telling me it would be worth a lot more if it had the small block. MPG was vastly more important than an old muscle car in the early '80's.

Now, I'd take either back and resell them.

stuart in mn wrote: There have been a number of bubbles in classic car pricing over the years, but I don't think we're in one now. If that Chevelle is as good as it's represented $38k is probably not a bad price. Chances are it would have been a lot more expensive back in 2007.

This. Prices of musclecars have actually come down a lot in the past couple years from what they were in 2007-2010.

Woody wrote: The bubble will burst when kids who think that *Fast and Furious* was a classic are in their late sixties.

More like in their forties or fifties when it comes to trading in the first wife for a new model, but yes.

Basically, the cars you lusted after when you were an impressionable teen that you suddenly can afford.

bravenrace wrote:

stuart in mn wrote: There have been a number of bubbles in classic car pricing over the years, but I don't think we're in one now. If that Chevelle is as good as it's represented $38k is probably not a bad price. Chances are it would have been a lot more expensive back in 2007.

This. Prices of musclecars have actually come down a lot in the past couple years from what they were in 2007-2010.

I remember being at BJ at around 2004 and a 60's Camaro went for just over $100k. It was a rare car-- a Copo or something like it, but that was an outrageous, record-setting price at the time. I think those type of cars have held their value or increased, but your more average cars have gone up and now down a bit. I saw a very nice looking Thunderbird recently go for about 2/3 or less what it might have gone for pre 2008.

stuart in mn wrote: There have been a number of bubbles in classic car pricing over the years, but I don't think we're in one now. If that Chevelle is as good as it's represented $38k is probably not a bad price. Chances are it would have been a lot more expensive back in 2007.

I'm not sure I agree. While the prices of the "investment grade" 100 point restoration cars has dropped from the pre-2008 B-J driven days, the prices of driver-grade cars has gone up. I say this judging by the prices of 2nd gen Chargers which I've followed for years.

Ian F wrote: I'm not sure I agree. While the prices of the "investment grade" 100 point restoration cars has dropped from the pre-2008 B-J driven days, the prices of driver-grade cars has gone up. I say this judging by the prices of 2nd gen Chargers which I've followed for years.

My experience is with early '60s Pontiacs, I've been following their prices for 30 or 40 years (I have a '61 Bonneville.) Just before the recession, a guy I know sold a car very similar to mine for $60k, but today it would probably sell in the $30k range.

I gotta go with the 'there is no bubble' camp. Barring a huge economic depression the prices you see now are about where they are going to stay. Sorry, but the days of cheap 66-72 Chevelles and F-Bodies are gone forever.

But that doesn't mean that there aren't cool cars out there that can still be had for cheap. You just need to think outside of the box and maybe expand your definition of what a muscle car (or acceptable substitute) is. This thread started by Coldsnap actually has some good information if you can get past all the childish bickering and name-calling.

I just see the thinning of the available cars and people are actually getting the cost to refurbish a car they would have let rot before.

Some cars haven't moved that much really. Early C3 corvettes have been in the same range for a long time.

What kills me is the prices of the late 70's F bodies. I know a lot got sacrificed to dirt track racing but the pricing on those are just stupid in my eye for a car that not all that great without a ton of engine work.

Now someone needs to tell the market early barracudas are cool so the pricing of mine takes off. haha.

Funny, I never liked those cars when they were new. Noisy awkward barges with brakes not up to their straight line performance and wouldn't go around a corner as well as a basic sports car - I had two friends who owned AMXs, both with tuned 390s in them, that fancied themselves as handling cars (they WERE the only car of that type classified by SCCA as sports cars, but that was due to the lack of a rear seat, not necessarily handling prowess). After listening to them brag about their slalom (today, solo) feats, I took one of my stock sports cars out to the next one and handily bested them both although they made much more noise and rubber smoke.

There is a huge contingent that were impressed with power, straight line speed and sturm und drang of V8 American iron and nostalgically spend far more than sensible money trying to relive either their youth, or the cars they'd have liked to have been able to own in their youth. Once they hit wheelchairs instead of driver's seats, the 'bubble' will be burst. Most of them are in their early 60s or older now, so it is just a matter of time.

I owned exactly one muscle car and I sold it. Nice noises but who could put up with the handling and brakes just for nice noises (well, apparently a lot of people, but not me).

stuart in mn wrote: My experience is with early '60s Pontiacs, I've been following their prices for 30 or 40 years (I have a '61 Bonneville.) Just before the recession, a guy I know sold a car very similar to mine for $60k, but today it would probably sell in the $30k range.

I believe some of the disparity here may be a shift from the cars Baby Boomers liked and wanted to cars their kids (Gen X) want. As a smack-in-the-middle Gen X member (born in 1970), I'm attracted to cars I saw on TV and in films (hence '69 Chargers and late 70's T/A's) plus the cars I read about in Car Craft and Hot Rod back in the 80's (lots of Mustangs and Camaros; early 60's Pontiacs? notsomuch). Not that there's anything wrong with early 60's Pontiacs, but they just weren't what we read about back then.

Now that some Gen X'ers like myself are starting to age a bit and a few of us have a few extra pennies to rub together, we start adding our influence into the muscle car market, but with slightly different wants than our parents. It seems for the most part, we're less interested in "collecting" than just getting a good, fun car to drive around.

No bubble... just reality.

Why I built an older Corolla...

man... No bubble?

why back in my day you used to be able to buy a comic book for a nickle! And a clean 1970 Chevelle for $7000!

I guess that was almost a decade and a half ago...

Get off my lawn

Wearing my economist hat...

There is a difference between a bubble when prices go way out of line with fundamental values (think Vegas housing market) and "normal" price fluctuations that are more in line with changes in both supply and demand.

I think the market in muscle cars (and old 911s...) is certainly frothy at the moment because there is much demand for good cars and people willing to pay the higher prices. Part of that is the herd mentality (aka "ride the trend"), part of it is the availability of cheap money and the fact that yields on capital-preserving investments are in the toilet. So if you have money to park, why not park it in a car if you believe the trend is your friend as it has been pretty consistently since pre-crash times?

The reason I think the market is only frothy and not bubbly yet is that you'll have to take restoration costs into account. Rising values tend to lead to more money being available for restorations, which in turn increases the availability of well restored, but more expensive cars.

SEADave wrote: This thread started by Coldsnap actually has some good information if you can get past all the childish bickering and name-calling.

I agree with SEADave! I am guilty as charged & so are many, maybe most of you. It's fun to kid around if it's obvious we are kidding. (Such as what two old pilots Leo & I have often done amongst each other.) But when we, and that's me too, lose track of the fact that we are all here because we are into our cars & these forums are for fun,recreation, & information, everything but the bickering leaves.

I will try to be more careful with my comments in the future. Everyone on these forums is here because they choose to be. No one is here to be insulted or slandered.

I just read a thread on a Classic Motorsports Forum where a car seller was certainly dissed and possibly slandered. I believe the BBB or a court of law is the place for these types of disputes to be settled, not a public thread intended for fun where not all facts are even available.

Let's all try to go back to the concept of I enjoy my rides and I respect that you enjoy yours!

Group hugs all around...Just like the Marines! LOL

Leo

wspohn wrote: Funny, I never liked those cars when they were new. Noisy awkward barges with brakes not up to their straight line performance and wouldn't go around a corner as well as a basic sports car - I had two friends who owned AMXs, both with tuned 390s in them, that fancied themselves as handling cars (they WERE the only car of that type classified by SCCA as sports cars, but that was due to the lack of a rear seat, not necessarily handling prowess). After listening to them brag about their slalom (today, solo) feats, I took one of my stock sports cars out to the next one and handily bested them both although they made much more noise and rubber smoke. There is a huge contingent that were impressed with power, straight line speed and sturm und drang of V8 American iron and nostalgically spend far more than sensible money trying to relive either their youth, or the cars they'd have liked to have been able to own in their youth. Once they hit wheelchairs instead of driver's seats, the 'bubble' will be burst. Most of them are in their early 60s or older now, so it is just a matter of time. I owned exactly one muscle car and I sold it. Nice noises but who could put up with the handling and brakes just for nice noises (well, apparently a lot of people, but not me).

I take it you fault people for wanting a little variety in their life? As long as you understand the car and it's limits just about anything can be enjoyable to drive. My Chevelle brakes better than my beetle, and is much faster, but that doesn't mean I'm selling the beetle. I have a 4 door 72 LTD parked next to a 73 Volvo 142 and actually prefer driving the LTD, but the Volvo has it's own charm, so I'm keeping it. As far as a muscle car bubble.....I don't think we'll see a huge change in prices unless they go up even more, which looks likely. I bought my 71 Chevelle 454SS and 85 911 around the same time. The 911 value has stayed pretty stagnant while the Chevelle shot through the roof.

I bought a lot of my cars while I was in my 20s and am now 36, no where near 60, and most of my cars were built before I was born, so when the people you think are the ones buying these cars "hit wheelchairs instead of driver's seats" guys like me will still be around to keep that bubble from bursting.