67LS1 said:
Is Tesla really that "far ahead" of other OEM's?
Maybe a little in EV tech and batteries but certainly not as a business. The legacy dealers are in place and operating service centers nationwide and even worldwide. None of these hundreds of thousands of employees work for the OEM's. And all of the other costs that go along with them; real estate costs, parts inventory costs, healthcare, retirement, etc, etc.
It's already difficult to get a Tesla serviced in a timely fashion. Try to buy parts to do your own repairs. Good luck.
Over the next years Tesla is going to have to either spend billions of their own money or franchise service centers and parts distribution network. Good luck with this.
There have got to be a LOT of Teslas that are nearing the end of their battery life and virtually zero capacity to deal with battery swaps. So will cars get scrapped? That's not going to be good for their reputation.
20 + years is the projected life of the batteries used in Tesla's. So no, not a lot of scrapped Tesla's. As for getting your Tesla serviced? Oil changes? Brake jobs? Sorry, that sarcasm escaped. Most problems with Tesla's are solved right on line while charging. Anything thing else they come to your home and do it.
As for repairing things yourself? Think of them as big green farm machinery.
In short, Tesla has a new approach and frankly I like it. I've worked for two different dealerships in my life. They are run as all dealerships are run. Ethics is a foreign word. Morals are forbidden.
aircooled said:
gearheadmb said:
93EXCivic said:
I just want to know what made him such an insufferable little vajajay.
He is definitely a lot more PT Barnum than Henry Ford.
I am pretty sure if you gave Henry Ford a twitter account you would be... less than impressed.
I dunno plenty of nazi's on platforms these days, would be interesting to hear his racist stream of consciousness...
In reply to frenchyd :
Boost_Crazy said:
In reply to frenchyd :
Or Tesla spent years losing money to convince the public that EV's are an acceptable alternative. The traditional automakers aren't behind, they were letting Tesla do the heavy lifting while they waited for the right time. Even now, many are just sticking their toe in the water.
You've got to be impressed with his work accomplishments. He's really the first guy I've seen who really needs a private jet and uses it not as a status symbol but a proper work tool.
I'm sure he's tough to work for but when he sets his mind to achieving something, it gets done.
Yes, most definitely. I don't have an issue with Elon Musk or Tesla. I have an issue with Tesla's outrageous valuation. It's not their fault, but it just makes me shake my head. Musk spent a lot of years and dollars pushing EV's to the mainstream. He did it by starting with luxury cars, by playing to EV's strengths rather than highlighting their weaknesses. If he had built another EV weenie mobile, EV's wouldn't be where there are now in public perception. But his problem is going to be that his idea is easily copied. It was the idea of EV's being a premium product that was revolutionary. Innovators don't always fare well when the market they created gets crowded. I predict that the battery side of the business will continue success for longer than the automotive side.
Boost_Crazy said:
In reply to frenchyd :
Innovators don't always fare well when the market they created gets crowded. I predict that the battery side of the business will continue success for longer than the automotive side.
AIUI, Tesla still has a significant tech advantage over the other manufacturers in their powertrains, not necessarily in raw power, but in range. That's not just better batteries either -- even with the same kwh rating they eke more range out of it through better management, software, and system integration, as a result of having started seriously working on the problem for several years before their competitors. That's an advantage that won't last forever -- as the problem space gets better understand those techniques will become common knowledge and the gap will narrow. The same applies to their advantage in the charging network. In the tech industry you'd expect a company like that to wind up being acquired by one of the major industry players. That's what I expected to happen to Tesla for a long time, but at this point their valuation is WAY too high for that. The last I checked their market cap was as much as the next six largest car makers, combined. It may still happen if the bottom drops out of the share price, but...
As for Musk, he's a visionary industrialist, and as with many such people he's got a lot of quirks. Aside from the comparison to Henry Ford, think of people like Howard Hughes and Steve Jobs. Hughes was notoriously private -- supposedly he had a lot of weird ideas, but he wasn't interested in buying Twitter (or whatever the equivalent was at the time) and telling the world about them. I know a few people who worked directly with Steve Jobs, and they have a lot of stories about odd things he wanted as well. Musk seems to want to share his opinions, and he's got enough money, fame, and prestige to do it.
I have a ton of respect for the work that Musk has done disrupting two major industries with Tesla and SpaceX, both of which were dominated by large players and pretty stagnant in terms of major innovation until he came along. I don't have to agree with everything else he talks about and does in order to respect that.
STM317
PowerDork
2/7/23 5:06 a.m.
codrus (Forum Supporter) said:
Boost_Crazy said:
In reply to frenchyd :
Innovators don't always fare well when the market they created gets crowded. I predict that the battery side of the business will continue success for longer than the automotive side.
AIUI, Tesla still has a significant tech advantage over the other manufacturers in their powertrains, not necessarily in raw power, but in range. That's not just better batteries either -- even with the same kwh rating they eke more range out of it through better management, software, and system integration, as a result of having started seriously working on the problem for several years before their competitors.
I think this technology gap is more perception than reality. Any figures involving 'official' or 'rated' range (either total range or efficiency calculated from that range) should be taken with a grain of salt. Tesla uses different testing methods than most other automakers to be able to claim their higher EPA rated range.
In the real world though, Teslas have a tendency to struggle meeting their rated range, while other OEMs tend to outperform their 'rated' range. Every single Tesla that Edmunds has done real world range testing on has come up short of their 'rated' range, while the only other EVs to fall short of their 'official' ratings in the real world were the Lucid (#1 on the list) and the new Toyota alphabet soup (#49).
Tesla and other EV startups tout big range for sales reasons, and can struggle to match it, while legacy OEMs are typically more conservative, opting instead to under promise and over deliver. It's two different strategies, but the result is a much smaller gap in 'real world' range and efficiency than what's shown on 'official' ratings.
93EXCivic said:
frenchyd said:
You've got to be impressed with his work accomplishments.
No I don't.
Your choice obviously, but you are showing a lot of bias IMO. How long has it been since we've seen the emergence of a more impactful industrialist? And who would that be?
Boost_Crazy said:
In reply to frenchyd :
Boost_Crazy said:
In reply to frenchyd :
Or Tesla spent years losing money to convince the public that EV's are an acceptable alternative. The traditional automakers aren't behind, they were letting Tesla do the heavy lifting while they waited for the right time. Even now, many are just sticking their toe in the water.
You've got to be impressed with his work accomplishments. He's really the first guy I've seen who really needs a private jet and uses it not as a status symbol but a proper work tool.
I'm sure he's tough to work for but when he sets his mind to achieving something, it gets done.
Yes, most definitely. I don't have an issue with Elon Musk or Tesla. I have an issue with Tesla's outrageous valuation. It's not their fault, but it just makes me shake my head. Musk spent a lot of years and dollars pushing EV's to the mainstream. He did it by starting with luxury cars, by playing to EV's strengths rather than highlighting their weaknesses. If he had built another EV weenie mobile, EV's wouldn't be where there are now in public perception. But his problem is going to be that his idea is easily copied. It was the idea of EV's being a premium product that was revolutionary. Innovators don't always fare well when the market they created gets crowded. I predict that the battery side of the business will continue success for longer than the automotive side.
The market sets the valuation not Musk. Thus the market sees things that maybe you've missed? As far as how he "introduced" the brand? That's marketing 101. Plus by selling the best first he made the most profit possible, effectively quickly reducing debt.
What drives my appraisal of Tesla is the way he has taken the lead in all things EV. Not just cars. But charging. Those charging sites will be earning income long after cars built to this point disappear. It's like he owns the car company and the gas stations. Plus rather than give away the dealerships he owns them and can impact service immediately. He doesn't have to worry about dealers selling for less than MSRP and undercutting the value.
Right now most owners are happy with the service. ( what little they need)
I do hear a lot of complaints by independents who are frustrated with Tesla's control of the brand. There are a lot of easily repaired cars, but no parts, or service manuals.
Independents took John Deere to court and won so it's reasonable to assume the same will happen to Tesla. It just takes time.
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:
93EXCivic said:
frenchyd said:
You've got to be impressed with his work accomplishments.
No I don't.
Your choice obviously, but you are showing a lot of bias IMO. How long has it been since we've seen the emergence of a more impactful industrialist? And who would that be?
So what? He is a narcissistic twat. I don't feel the need to be impressed by anything from a man like that.
In reply to 93EXCivic :
It would be nice if people who do big things were humble. Since that's not how it works I guess we take the good with the bad.
In reply to frenchyd :
The market sets the valuation not Musk. Thus the market sees things that maybe you've missed? As far as how he "introduced" the brand? That's marketing 101. Plus by selling the best first he made the most profit possible, effectively quickly reducing debt.
What drives my appraisal of Tesla is the way he has taken the lead in all things EV. Not just cars. But charging. Those charging sites will be earning income long after cars built to this point disappear. It's like he owns the car company and the gas stations. Plus rather than give away the dealerships he owns them and can impact service immediately. He doesn't have to worry about dealers selling for less than MSRP and undercutting the value.
Right now most owners are happy with the service. ( what little they need)
I do hear a lot of complaints by independents who are frustrated with Tesla's control of the brand. There are a lot of easily repaired cars, but no parts, or service manuals.
Independents took John Deere to court and won so it's reasonable to assume the same will happen to Tesla. It just takes time.
I realize that the market sets the valuation, hence why I said "not their fault." The market is seeing things that defy basic mathematical concepts. I don't get your marketing tie in- what is remarkable is that Tesla has achieved what is has without any real marketing to speak of. Musk chose to launch his EV's in an automotive segment that has traditionally been ignored by EV's, at least in the last 100 years. I'd call that more product development than marketing.
The negatives that you list in repairs and service are likely going to hurt Tesla if they can't fix those issues. While a good chunk of their current customers are willing to overlook those factors, much of the general public will not, especially if mainstream auto makers do better in that regard.
In reply to Boost_Crazy :
I think that may be part of the appeal of a Tesla.
Back in 1948 with the Jaguar XK120 it wasn't fully developed, or sorted. But it was such a hot car owners didn't care. In fact that was part of the appeal!!!
If you want this car you'll need to pay us 3 times what a new Buick costs and accept all the shortcomings. Plus wait until one is available!!!!!
William Lyons only expected to make something like 250 but demand was so high he went on to sell 15,000 !
The original goal was to have the XK 120 do the engine development work for the big Sedan.
I see that Elon Musk created excitement around EV's the same way. Now he can introduce the less exciting more practical cars while Ford and others are trying to create excitement with their offerings.
Chevy tried it the other way and the Bolt is well, not exciting the public the way Tesla has.
In reply to frenchyd :
You know, you made me think up a good question. In 30 years, will the original Model S's be sought after like other cars that were innovative and popular but out of reach for the average person? Or will they just be like outdated tech or electronics that have been completely replaced by the modern version? Maybe the original auto pilot will be looked at like having a car with no air bags or seat belts today.
93EXCivic said:
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:
93EXCivic said:
frenchyd said:
You've got to be impressed with his work accomplishments.
No I don't.
Your choice obviously, but you are showing a lot of bias IMO. How long has it been since we've seen the emergence of a more impactful industrialist? And who would that be?
So what? He is a narcissistic twat. I don't feel the need to be impressed by anything from a man like that.
You could say the same thing about Lebron James or any number of other people who sit at the pinnacle of their professions. I'd ask you: Why does someone's likability matter so much to you? You aren't going out on a date with them or paying 15 bucks to see them in a movie. If only nice guys could do good things a lot fewer good things would happen.
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:
93EXCivic said:
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:
93EXCivic said:
frenchyd said:
You've got to be impressed with his work accomplishments.
No I don't.
Your choice obviously, but you are showing a lot of bias IMO. How long has it been since we've seen the emergence of a more impactful industrialist? And who would that be?
So what? He is a narcissistic twat. I don't feel the need to be impressed by anything from a man like that.
You could say the same thing about Lebron James or any number of other people who sit at the pinnacle of their professions. I'd ask you: Why does someone's likability matter so much to you? You aren't going out on a date with them or paying 15 bucks to see them in a movie. If only nice guys could do good things a lot fewer good things would happen.
Sure lots of people at the top of their professions probably are narcissistic and not particularly likable. Although I don't think Lebron is a particularly bad. I assume most people who make it to the top of their profession are probably shiny happy people but Elon Musk is a special kind of shiny happy person. He is a destructive vajajay and his constant need for attention is just incredible galling. Also he has a fan base that somehow makes Alabama football fans look not annoying.
In reply to Boost_Crazy :
Interesting question.
As a guy who stored 14 computers hoping one would become worth while, I doubt it.
But hey! I save Jaguars and every person on this site is convinced they are absolutely the worst car ever made.
In reply to 93EXCivic :
Okay, but where he stands out relative to so many other narcissistic pinheads is that he actually makes stuff. He took electric cars from being the domain of people like us puttering in our garages, to being mass-marketed, very desirable items. Space X reinvented space freight services. To me, these are epic undertakings that I would applaud anyone short of a despot over.
The financial sector has hugely increased as a percentage of the economy over the last 40 years. A lot of that is various forms of manipulation, and there's a lot of pillaging of the other sectors of the economy through hostile takeovers and what have you. It's like in the 1980s it occurred to people that the accumulated wealth of the United States could be mined, exploited and milked dry. So while Musk is a douche. He's still someone who brings much more to the table than he takes.
frenchyd said:
In reply to Boost_Crazy :
I save Jaguars and every person on this site is convinced they are absolutely the worst car ever made.
You're on this site. /justsayin'
In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :
I agree with you except the jury is still out regarding Twitter.
I hope he hasn't bitten off more than he can fix. But then I don't see the up side.
frenchyd said:
Boost_Crazy said:
In reply to frenchyd :
Or Tesla spent years losing money to convince the public that EV's are an acceptable alternative. The traditional automakers aren't behind, they were letting Tesla do the heavy lifting while they waited for the right time. Even now, many are just sticking their toe in the water.
You've got to be impressed with his work accomplishments. He's really the first guy I've seen who really needs a private jet and uses it not as a status symbol but a proper work tool.
I'm sure he's tough to work for but when he sets his mind to achieving something, it gets done.
I went through a whole interview and hiring process for SpaceX a few years ago. Even got to meet Elon himself, since the position was going to be a critical role in helping fulfill future gov't contracts. Smart dude that knows exactly how he wants things done and can elaborate his vision well; however, it was how beat to poo everyone else looked during the courting process that threw me off and made me back out of the position. That and it was the lowest offer I got in SoCal, on top of likely having to work 70-80 hours a week, the QOL aspect wasn't there. Plus his hand shake was cold, slimey, and a wet noodle.
That being said, I do have an appreciation for his work. It's weird that some people treat him like a deity
Do I believe oil companies made him a billionaire? No. I believe it's a combination of coy marketing and EV propaganda that makes individuals feel like they are the cause of mass pollution that is fueling the Tesla success. Plus people always enjoy feeling like part of a crowd or a movement or superior to others which loops back to the coy marketing and exploiting those emotions.
DirtyBird222 said:
frenchyd said:
it's a combination of coy marketing and EV propaganda that makes individuals feel like they are the cause of mass pollution that is fueling the Tesla success. Plus people always enjoy feeling like part of a crowd or a movement or superior to others which loops back to the coy marketing and exploiting those emotions.
This is pretty much spot on. Marketing is key and the feeling people get is euphoric for a long time apparently.
In reply to frenchyd :
Twitter may well go down as his biggest screw-up. A guy with some tendencies towards being "on the spectrum" shouldn't be getting into the social media business any more than someone who struggles with math getting into engineering.
In reply to DirtyBird222 :
A good friend of mine worked at SpaceX for about 8 years, starting pretty early on - 2012 maybe? Based on many conversations with her as well as visiting her about 2 years in, your assessment is pretty spot on. If you work at SpaceX, there is nothing else. You don't have time to know or do anything else. Everyone there had slept in their office more than once. And actually, I believe that's exactly what Musk wants. He does not want ppl that have been their 20 years and can say "well, we normally do it this way." So the culture is go at redline, hang on for dear life for about 5-8 years, and then get out and let younger and/or more energetic blood pick up the reins.
The only things you missed on were a) there's no "likely" about working 70-80 hrs wk, it's a certainty, and b) can't speak to your actual offer, but with stock options (yes, it's a private company, but you still get equity compensation) my friend came out after 8 years pretty much set to the point where she doesn't have to take any job she doesn't really want. She didn't work at all for about 3 years while she did some stuff of interest to her. You're not fully vested until 5 years in, thus why ppl stay at least 5 years and then split.
Having spent plenty of time in military aerospace and hearing the "you know back in '83 we did it like this" argument, I think the approach and the results you see out of SpaceX are highly correlated.
On the Tesla business side, despite all the many issues ppl have raised here (and there are plenty of them), the fact that GM made $9.9B net income on $156.7B revenue in 2022 while Tesla made $12.5B net income on only $81.4B suggests they're doing something right. Whether that's manufacturing, technologies, pricing, sales network, etc., is left to the reader.
fidelity101 said:
aircooled said:
gearheadmb said:
93EXCivic said:
I just want to know what made him such an insufferable little vajajay.
He is definitely a lot more PT Barnum than Henry Ford.
I am pretty sure if you gave Henry Ford a twitter account you would be... less than impressed.
I dunno plenty of nazi's on platforms these days, would be interesting to hear his racist stream of consciousness...
You and the 5 people that upvoted this should get over your "everyone I don't like is a Nazi" complex. It's historically disgusting and it's a great thing there aren't many real Nazi's in the world anymore. As someone who's family lost lives fighting Nazi's this is gross to say the least.
