FORMULA ONE - 2019

alfadriver said:

So should Kubica go next?  He's never really been close to Russel, and now that they are making some serious progress....

Yes. He never deserved/earned the seat in the first place. 

So, didn't Russel beat albon in f2 last year?

I don't get how the champion in f2 is stuck at Williams and albon is on a top 3 team.

Anybody know what the likely hood of Russell getting a good ride is?  I think he is part of Mercedes driver development program, but I don't see a clear path to the top right now.

In reply to wvumtnbkr :

Connections.  I think Russell is behind Ocon WRT a main Mercedes seat.  Albon is part of the Red Bull Family.

wvumtnbkr said:

I don't get how the champion in f2 is stuck at Williams and albon is on a top 3 team.

Right place at the right time.

Great explanation of Red Bulls decision here.

https://www.espn.co.uk/f1/story/_/id/27377461/the-logic-red-bull-albon-gasly-driver-swap

Cliff notes.  IF Albon steps up and does better than Gasley has, they can snag 2nd in the constructors' championship ahead of Ferrari and get another $10m in prize money.  IF he does equal to or worse than Gasley they can't fall behind McLAren.  It gives them a chance to asses him for next year.  IF he goes well he's staying next year.  If not they can put him back to Torro Rosso and promote Kvyat again.  

But Gasly just needs a little more time....he was going to be challenging Max for positions any race now.....LOL.

It's about time they admitted their mistake and took some step to correct it. I think they should've made this move after the first few races when it was clear Gasly was not up to it, but it's good they stuck behind him publicly for half a season while he continued to fail to perform.

I hope Albon can step up because I would be a shame to see him Kvyat himself. He doesn't have to beat Max, but he has to easily be in the top 6 every race and not end up racing the mid field for positions most of the race, then he will be an improvement.

In reply to T.J. :

Hey TJ Give the guy a break, Albion needs time to come to grips with the new team. 

(Just preemptively responding) 

In reply to Adrian_Thompson :

I think all that is left is for RB to find a new driver for their family.  Then my thought is that Hulk is gone and Renault will take on Gasly. They really want the marketing connect to France. Honda may have the finally say. 

Gasley getting bumped is no surprise. I've been expecting that for months. He was a dud and Horner doesn't have patience for that.

But this is good. From the ESPN link:

Because of the gap to McLaren in fourth, Red Bull can offer Albon a no-pressure environment to find his feet.

 Horner? No pressure? Haha haa haaaa!

I understand RB want's to test out the  performance of Albon, but what driver do they really want as a #2. They have seemed to struggle with the decision. So should Albon be going for the win to secure the ride for 2020, and try to beat Vers? (not sure I believe he can)   Should he be a solid number 2 driver and pull over for the rest of his RB career. It seems that #2 driver at Redbull always gets the raw end.

In reply to trigun7469 :

Speculation is that this IS a low pressure situation.

If Albon is like Gasly, the team has no real change for the season, and will likely put Kvyat in the seat next season.

If he's much better, then RB may be able to pass Ferrari in the standings, and he keeps the seat.

IMHO, RB sees Verstappen as clearly the next Sebastian Vettel- so he's #1 driver for as long as they can keep him on the team.  And the risk there is when Hamilton finally retires, Mercedes may come calling.  Or Ferrari... 

Seems like the most important observation of this whole thing is that RB's driver program is largely empty of talent right now.  

Red Bull need a better #2 driver.  The way they are going they should easily be in 2nd in the constructor's championship.  If Gasley was scoring points relative to Max at the same rate as other #w drivers they'd already be 2nd.  He's just way off the pace.  I didn't expect him to set the world on fire, but I did expect him to be a hell of a lot closer based on how he beat Hartley last year.  It just goes to show, yet again, that being fast and raw talent isn't everything in F1.  You have to be able to step up to the pressure, pace and deliver right now, all the time. 

Adrian_Thompson said:

 I did expect him to be a hell of a lot closer based on how he beat Hartley last year.

F1Metrics ranked him 17th last season, and that's about how well he's driven this year.

In reply to red_stapler :

F1Metrics also predicted Kubica was going to walk all over Russell.

Does Bottas keep his #2 seat at Merc?  Does his potential for good runs as shown early in the season, his ability to push Lewis in Quali, and his easy demeanor that keeps Toto's stomach acid under control give him the ride, at least until the end of the season?  Is Ocon a worthy successor to Lewis?

As an aside- I was watching a video blog by Nico Rosberg from the last race, and he was talking to Gunther Steiner before the race.  Teasing him a bit about his Haas drivers running into each other, he said Toto's final solution for he and Lewis collision problems involved potential fines in the eight figure range...  That's enough to get anybodies attention, whether its dollars or pounds.

In reply to Streetwiseguy :

For the rest of the season, absolutely.

For next season, I honestly don't think so.  Ocon isn't going to wait for that seat forever, and Valteri hasn't been able to repeat his early season mental toughness.  And I think his real weakness is the inability to pass.  He's made some great moves, but he's also gotten stuck behind people he should not have gotten stuck behind.

I think Bottas will keep his seat at Mercedes through the rest of the year -- they're not in any danger of losing the Constructors' championship with his current performance level, even if Albon runs neck-and-neck with Verstappen.  Next year may be another story, though.

I think Mercedes will keep Bottas. He's putting in solid results. From a team standpoint, he's helping to deliver the championship and the two drivers are racing clean (note - have not seen the last two races yet). Would having someone push Hamilton harder really help the team overall? Hammy does seem to respond to pressure pretty well these days, but does that pressure have to come from inside the team?

Ocon has had trouble bouncing off his teammate in the recent past (like the last season he raced), I'm not sure that's something that Mercedes wants again.

T.J. said:

In reply to red_stapler :

F1Metrics also predicted Kubica was going to walk all over Russell.

“Under the model’s assumption of no effect of Kubica’s injury, it sees Kubica’s age and talent counting for enough to come out ahead. In reality, we will have to see if the injury matters.”

In their words, it seems like they knew that “prediction” was very uncertain.

As long as Bottas keeps Mercedes #1 in Team Championship points and doesn't create conflict with their star driver, why would they replace him? It would make no sense. I can understand why Red Bull replaced Gasly, because he was obviously keeping Red Bull from being #2 in the Team Championship but with Mercedes firing on all cylinders, bringing in another driver seems risky to the chemistry of the team

loosecannon said:

As long as Bottas keeps Mercedes #1 in Team Championship points and doesn't create conflict with their star driver, why would they replace him? It would make no sense. I can understand why Red Bull replaced Gasly, because he was obviously keeping Red Bull from being #2 in the Team Championship but with Mercedes firing on all cylinders, bringing in another driver seems risky to the chemistry of the team

One potential reason for replacing him is that Lewis Hamilton is 34 and has won 5 championships with the 6th looking likely to happen this year.  How long until he retires?  When he does Mercedes want to have a new top-level driver standing by to take over, and Bottas doesn't seem to be that driver.

codrus said:

loosecannon said:

As long as Bottas keeps Mercedes #1 in Team Championship points and doesn't create conflict with their star driver, why would they replace him? It would make no sense. I can understand why Red Bull replaced Gasly, because he was obviously keeping Red Bull from being #2 in the Team Championship but with Mercedes firing on all cylinders, bringing in another driver seems risky to the chemistry of the team

One potential reason for replacing him is that Lewis Hamilton is 34 and has won 5 championships with the 6th looking likely to happen this year.  How long until he retires?  When he does Mercedes want to have a new top-level driver standing by to take over, and Bottas doesn't seem to be that driver.

 

I suspect we won't see Lewis retire until the end of 2022 at the earliest. If Mercedes show under the new rule set coming out, for two straight years, they can't build him a winning car.......he'll retire, or possibly go to whichever team has the best car.

red_stapler said:

T.J. said:

In reply to red_stapler :

F1Metrics also predicted Kubica was going to walk all over Russell.

“Under the model’s assumption of no effect of Kubica’s injury, it sees Kubica’s age and talent counting for enough to come out ahead. In reality, we will have to see if the injury matters.”

In their words, it seems like they knew that “prediction” was very uncertain.

"If you ignore that I'm overweight and don't workout, I can probably run a competitive half-marathon pace."

That's essentially what that is, a completely useless model/assumption.

z31maniac said:

codrus said:

loosecannon said:

As long as Bottas keeps Mercedes #1 in Team Championship points and doesn't create conflict with their star driver, why would they replace him? It would make no sense. I can understand why Red Bull replaced Gasly, because he was obviously keeping Red Bull from being #2 in the Team Championship but with Mercedes firing on all cylinders, bringing in another driver seems risky to the chemistry of the team

One potential reason for replacing him is that Lewis Hamilton is 34 and has won 5 championships with the 6th looking likely to happen this year.  How long until he retires?  When he does Mercedes want to have a new top-level driver standing by to take over, and Bottas doesn't seem to be that driver.

 

I suspect we won't see Lewis retire until the end of 2022 at the earliest. If Mercedes show under the new rule set coming out, for two straight years, they can't build him a winning car.......he'll retire, or possibly go to whichever team has the best car.

But as some point, if they don't give Ocon a chance, they will lose him.  And he's a better chance at a next WC when Lewis retires than Valteri is at this point.  

alfadriver said:

But as some point, if they don't give Ocon a chance, they will lose him.  And he's a better chance at a next WC when Lewis retires than Valteri is at this point.  

You're 100% right, but I feel for Bottas.  He's obviously a great driver, the problem is when you're teamed with someone who is undoutably one of the greatest ever, it's hard to shine.  I'm not sure where he'd go if (when?) Mercedes let him go.  Back to Williams?  HAss?  He's not done enough to earn a seat at a top team, or even McLaren, but he could have a long career at a 2nd tier team.  Ocon should prbably have been the one to keep the Farce Inia / Racing what's the point over Perez if it weren't for Perez's connections.  Again, not to slam Perez, and outstanding 'B' driver, but Ocon has the potential to be an 'A' driver in my book.