FORMULA ONE - 2019

In reply to Adrian_Thompson : 

People forget that this is a athletic sport and your mental game has to be as strong as your talent. Even in Ocon gets the nod, that doesn't mean that he will immediately beat Bottas, plus Hamilton is most certainly the Alpha of the team. I would also bet that Hamilton would rally to keep Bottas.

Since I started the Bottas conversation, it has occurred to me- Yes, Ocon is a Merc driver, but he didn't really cover himself in glory while running into his team mate last year.  It might be a bit risky to shove him in the seat just now.

Is he actually a better driver than Valteri?  Toto said decisions would be made during the summer break, which is kinda too bad, coming off two less than stellar performances.  Maybe there will be a couple more Finnish drunken forest excursions, and he starts up after the break as well as he started the season.

Autosport did a good discussion on Valteri v Estaban on their tube of u's channel.

If Mercedes wants the best wing man for Lewis, Valteri is clearly the one- as he will also get you a Constructors championship, too.

If you want the next indvidual WC, right now, Estaban is the best choice- as Valteri seems to have some weaknesses that he's still struggling with.

It was an interesting discussion....

You guys forget that Bottas has led the championship this year and is still in second place. He’s no dud. He did well at Williams and earned his seat at Mercedes. Ocon did not do as well in the feeder team. I don’t see a strong case other than he’ll be different.

Keith Tanner said:

You guys forget that Bottas has led the championship this year and is still in second place. He’s no dud. He did well at Williams and earned his seat at Mercedes. Ocon did not do as well in the feeder team. I don’t see a strong case other than he’ll be different.

No, I'm not forgetting.  Bottas came out of the gate this year swinging.  He had a new mean look in his eye.  He started off well, but once things weren't going his way he seems to have lost his mojo again.  With LCH, Max or Alonso, when the chips are down they dig in and deliver even more.  With Bottas he seems to have fallen back into second fiddle again.  I don't think he's got that last bit killer instinct needed to be the ruthless A-hole that's needed to be at the absolute top.  As a wingman for Lewis he's perfect.  As the man to fight for that last point when the chips are down he's lacking.  Not knocking him as a driver or a human being, just looking at it from a team point of view.  If MAx overhauls him in points this year I'd put my money on Ocon for the second seat next year.

Three years ago (or so), the story everyone loved to tell was that LCH was fragile and couldn't handle it when he wasn't on top and that Nico could get in his head. Lewis came out of that much stronger and beating him took so much out of Nico that he retired instead of having to face it again - Nico said that. So don't assume that Bottas has lost his mojo, this is a head game.

If Ocon takes Valteri's seat next year, I think it's going to be 100% due to a conflict of interest on the part of his manager. 

In reply to Keith Tanner :

But this happened last year, too.  And, like Ade said, Valteri came out swinging at the top of this season- and we all thought this is the new Bottas that we all need to get used to.

And that's melted down.  

I'm glad I'm not making the call, but Valteri very much has issues working through the field, sometimes.  Which is an issue.

Keith Tanner said:

Three years ago (or so), the story everyone loved to tell was that LCH was fragile and couldn't handle it when he wasn't on top.

True. Ironically, that guy turned out to be Vettel.

It was pretty clearly Vettel for some time, but it took a while for the shine of his world championships to wear off and people to notice :)

Valteri does have trouble working through the slower cars, agreed. That's his biggest weakness. If he was a known loose nut like Max, he'd scare people out of the way. Maybe he needs to run a couple of Ferraris off the road or something.

The Formula Silly Season is going start when we know what happens with Valtieri.   I for one, was hoping we would see a continued force in him to challenge Lewis.  There is still hope for that, but at the current state of points, I don't think he is close enough, unless there is a full automotive failure, and a few of them with Lewis' car.  The battle now is for 2nd in the Drivers Championship.  

Should Mercedes decide to bring Ocon on as the second driver, this could see another series of events much like Ricciardo's move to Renault last year.  It would see Kubica loose his ride, to be taken by someone from Racing Point, and Bottas go to Racing Point, because, unless there is some massive shift at Williams I doubt he would go back there.  The dominos are about to fall one way or another and it will be an interesting thing to watch.

Keith Tanner said:

It was pretty clearly Vettel for some time, but it took a while for the shine of his world championships to wear off and people to notice :)

Valteri does have trouble working through the slower cars, agreed. That's his biggest weakness. If he was a known loose nut like Max, he'd scare people out of the way. Maybe he needs to run a couple of Ferraris off the road or something.

Interested point about Max scaring people out of the way, I wonder if he comes out swinging next year that him leading might be more difficult then challenging or just racing for wins.  

I think Max needs to switch his thinking from race wins to championships if he wants the big prize. We've seen it before - USA 2018, was it? - where he refused to stop fighting for a position when he had a penalty, and that slowed him down enough to cost him another place when the penalty was applied. He'll also risk contact and a DNF to get/maintain a place, and that's not how you win a championship. He certainly has no problems maintaining a lead and everyone knows that it's risky to try to get past him, so no worries there.

Last year, I didn't think he could do it. This year, he may have matured enough. He's still involved in a disproportionate number of collisions though.

I think Bottas is a great driver. He went into MB and does challenge Hamilton. He just doesn't seem to be able to go the next gear when he gets behind a few cars. He was a last minute call up after Rosberg retired. 

Also going into his last season battling Rosberg, Hamilton was hinting around retirement to pursue music and clothes design. Now he is solidly into staying many years. And he will win more races.

Bottas may not be the strategic choice anymore. Instead of developing Bottas before Hamilton surprised them by retiring. Maybe better to put Ocon or even someone with less experience as you have time to figure someone out. 

Keith Tanner said:

Three years ago (or so), the story everyone loved to tell was that LCH was fragile and couldn't handle it when he wasn't on top and that Nico could get in his head. Lewis came out of that much stronger and beating him took so much out of Nico that he retired instead of having to face it again - Nico said that. 

Yes but Lewis did stumble slightly under the psychological warfare waged on him by Nico and Nico's psychiatrist. And Bottas stated in a recent article that he was just overwhelmed by how much slower he was to his teammate. Bottas may have come back strong this season but this may have been his last push for the top of the hill. He may not be able to get his mindset settled again for another year of Hamilton's better racecraft. I hope he ends the year strong. 

He did stumble, although he also had at least one mechanical failure that really cost him the championship that year and put him on the back foot. My point is that he came out stronger, that he took what happened and became a better racer. I don't know who fixed his head but they did a hell of a job. Maybe it's that blonde woman who's always at his side on race weekend.

Bottas made a start at it this year. He was motivating himself with a bunch of strong talk about how he was going to beat his teammate and he did until all of a sudden he wasn't for various reasons. Maybe Bottas 3.0 will be a little more internalized. I don't think he's ready to be put to pasture. Remember that he's 5 years younger than Lewis is. He still has some growth ahead.

So it appears that Bottas is staying with Mercedes next year, and Ocon is going to Renault- https://www.express.co.uk/sport/f1-autosport/1168553/Toto-Wolff-Lewis-Hamilton-Renault-Mercedes-Valtteri-Bottas-Esteban-Ocon-Hulkenberg

Ocon did have to get some word, and the rumors are strong that Renault really wanted a French driver, and given their choices, Ocon was the best choice.  So he looks to have severed his relationship with Mercedes.

And that means that for 2021 or beyond, one can expect that Russell will move to Mercedes.  Seeing his talent, one can think he would be a great successor to Hamilton.

That's all pretty good news for Mercedes, and Ocon/Ricciardo at Renault could be fun. It's bad news for Hulkenberg, though - will he end up in a Haas next year?

Keith Tanner said:

That's all pretty good news for Mercedes, and Ocon/Ricciardo at Renault could be fun. It's bad news for Hulkenberg, though - will he end up in a Haas next year?

Does anyone thing that Haas will represent a B' for Ferrari?  For sure, the main pileline is Alfa/Sauber.  But if you go Haas, does that mean you also go Ferrari?  On a related note, does anyone thing that a Ferrari driver may go to Haas, similar to Russel to Williams?  

As for Renault- there still was the rumor that Ricciardo may not stay- which I expect to work it's way out before Spa.

Haas strikes me as being outside the driver development ladder. They're purely a customer team which is a bit odd given how close they are to a full-fledged Ferrari, but there you go. Hulkenberg has driven for basically everyone by this point when you think about it.

I'm not sure where else Danny could go at this point. Haas? ;)

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Ferrari.

Ah, so it's not so much that Danny is looking to leave Renault as that he might take advantage of a certain seat becoming available. I'd love to see that. 

You haven't heard those rumors?  I really don't see that happening, unless the seat is offered to him.  The criticism he's talking about for Renault is pretty good- suggesting that they act more like Red Bull.  Given the pace of their changes, he's right- they will never catch up with the small increments they are doing.  So I think he's in good terms with the French Team.

But if Seb leaves, and they offer- that's a seat you just can't say no to.

Formula 1 thinks this is what the next car may look like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vsBPDsAlm0

I think the teams might be building cars that intentionally leave a dirty wake, in an effort to gain advantage.

In reply to alfadriver :

Looks more indycar then F1.