Gas prices

Today's topic: Are they dropping for real? They have dropped for 22 straight days. How many more days until they bounce back up? And did I just jinx it?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/08/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm?cnn=yes

I posted earlier about fuel oil. Gas has dropped from $4.25 to $3.89, but FO is at $4.79. It requires less refining, how's that work?

Sorry David, forgot you were Floridians. Fuel Oil is what we use instead of sandy beaches to keep warm in the winter here.

Fuel oil is expensive due to worldwide demand for distalates (sp?). We can import gas from Europe to keep that price from getting too high but the demand overseas for diesel/kerosene/heating oil/jet fuel is high enough that we actually export that stuff. Hence, prices are not dropping as fast.

Here regular gas went from $4.10 to $3.63 in less than a week. 93 octane finally below $4.00 at $3.99 now.

Hmm, still paying $4/gal for non-Ethanol 91. I think the 87 with ethanol is down around $3.50 here.

You can still get non-ethanol gas? Where??

It went back up here(Indiana)yesterday. It was at $3.69 & went back to $3.85.

He have it here too.

87 is non-ethanol

91 and up is non-ethanol

anything in-between has ethanol here.

Gas prices, like anything else, are subject to the vicissitudes of the market. But look at the big picture: gas on a good month costs nearly three times what it did a couple of years ago. Long-term, high gas prices are not going away. Sure, we may see them drop to $3/gallon, but next summer I'm worried they will set a new record high. And even $3/gallon ain't anything to smile about.

Stargazer wrote: You can still get non-ethanol gas? Where??

Completely off topic, does ethanol enhanced gas smell different?

I was swapping out an injector on a DD and was rewarded by "bad" (as in smells unpleasant) gas. I know it was fresh gas, and am pretty sure it has ethanol in it.

It did not smell like old gas, nor fresh gas, nor ethanol.

Anyone pay attention to this?

OK here is the deal. High oil prices was a bubble. Increased demand (and the anticpation of greater demand) fueled the intial rise. Bandwagon speculators pushed it higher. As the dollar weakened, oil prices rose further. More and more investors invested in oil or oil related investors as a dollar hedge.The possibility of domesticdrilling also spooked some investors. I bought ETF DUG and have been making money on the way down.

OIl will fall a bit more, but unless we can incease domestic supply AND reduce consumption it will rise again.

Where is the bottom? I am guessing between $90 and $100. Why such a wide spread in my forecast? Only a fool tries to peg a price. Only an idiot tries to time the market. Formulate a strategy and go with it. Don't try to wring every last penny out of a strategy and don't be too stubborn to admit that your strategy was wrong.

Argue with me if you want, but I am a Wall Street trader (a real one, not an E-Trade jockey) and I watch it all happen.

Oil prices will fall a bit more

Hmmm, paid $3.80 for premium yesterday. I think regular was $3.50.

"Why such a wide spread in my forecast?"

I wouldn't call $90 to $100 a barrrel all that wide a spread.

A while ago I asked on here if the demand for vehicles like large SUVs would be "permanently" dampened by the swing up in price of gasoline, or would they resume now that gas is falling? I'm afraid that until the dollar strengthens and the demand for gasoline weakens, we may see this price "bubble" re-inflate. I'm even expecting gasoline to shoot up in price, at least temporarily, before Labor Day in anticipation that Americans will hit the road....NOT because they actually did and caused a demand spike.

Stargazer wrote: You can still get non-ethanol gas? Where??

I'm in OK, we have certain gas stations here refusing to sell Ethanol-laced gas.

It costs more, but I'm willing to pay the extra for the principal.

All the subsidies and nasty side effects in the food markets is ridiculous.

I was watching one of the news shows last night, CNN? Glen Beck? was interviewing a previous Shell CEO (a real softball interview, but that's another topic entirely), this guy said that diesel/heating oil/JP comes from the 'middle third' of the barrel. Gasoline and other light distillates come from the top third, asphalt and bunker fuel come from the bottom third. He says the 'middle third' is the smallest part meaning it's in shorter supply but is in highest demand, thus raising prices. He also says that heating oil, diesel and JP subsidizes the price of gasoline. Hmmm.

Yeah, I have noticed a difference in the smell of gasoline over the last several years too. It used to have a 'sharp' odor, now it smells like diesel or kerosene.

I got stuck in a rest stop on my way home in May (to northeastern Pa.) and woke up to air that was heavy with the smell of low-sulphur diesel. To me, it smells like a wood fire that was started/primed(?) with a VERY low grade of kerosene...so low grade it's barely even flammable. As a kid I used to love the "tang" of gasoline or diesel, now I can't really smell gasoline and diesel makes me ill.

I said "wide spread" because non-Wall Street types aoften criticize myself and other traders / strategists for not being able to peg a particular price.

SUVs will not immediately come back into vogue if gasoline prices abate. However, get and stay below $3.00 a gallon for 2009 and the 2010 or 2011 buying season will be an SUV love fest.

Look at 1980s. In thea early 80s, every vehicles which could be made with a small displacement engine was. Even the not-so-small Third generation Camaro and Firebird came standard with a four cylinder engine.

By about 1985, as fuel prices settled back in to just above $1.00 per gallon, large dispacement cars began to regain popularity. This led to bigger and badder V8s or turbocharegd smaller engines. It was 1985 that Shelby turboed the L body and Buick intercooled the Regal T-Type (which led to the Grand National). If fuel prices fall enough, we will see a repeat of the 80s. This is because we live in a country which believes the 69 Chevelle and the push rod V8 was the epitome of automotive development.

P.S. I own one push rod V8 myself.

The comic would be funny if it wasn't true.

"This Modern World" is a good strip.

I like how the frame on the '80's has the guy's hair pretty much matching the girl's.

SVreX wrote: I like how the frame on the '80's has the guy's hair pretty much matching the girl's.

it was the bolo tie that made me spit coffee in laughter