TL:DR - Denying registration of affected vehicles isn't very likely, but a buy-back is.
The draft mitigation has a few components to it. One being customer reimbursement. As of yet, there is no approved mechanical or software fix proposed. It will very likely be a buy-back, however it hasn't been determined what that means. It could be a full refund or it could be some type of prorated refund or it could be a credit toward a new car or a combination. Another part of the mitigation is an allotment of $2.7B for States to be applied toward projects that reduce NOx. There are four caveats that States must agree to if they agree to be a beneficiary. And I quote (same basic language is used for 3.0L):
Registration of 2.0 Liter Subject Vehicles:
The Beneficiary certifies, for the benefit of the parties to the Consent Decree (including the Settling Defendants) and the owners from time-to-time of 2.0 Liter Subject Vehicles, that upon becoming a Beneficiary, the Beneficiary:
(a)Shall not deny registration to any Subject Vehicle based solely on:
i.The presence of a defeat device or AECD covered by the resolution of
claims in the Consent Decree; or
ii.Emissions resulting from such a defeat device or AECD; or
iii.The availability of an Approved Emissions Modification or the Buyback,
Lease Termination, and Owner/Lessee Payment Program.
(b)Shall not deny registration to any Subject Vehicle that has received an Approved Emissions Modification based solely on:
i.The fact that the vehicle received the Approved Emissions Modification; or
ii.Emissions resulting from the modification (including but not limited to the anticipated emissions described in Appendix B to the Consent Decree); or
iii.Other emissions-related vehicle characteristics that result from the modification; or
iv.The availability of an Approved Emissions Modification or the Buyback, Lease Termination, and Owner/Lessee Payment Program.
(c)May identify 2.0 Liter Subject Vehicles as having received, or not received, the Approved Emissions Modification on the basis of VIN-specific information provided to the Beneficiary by the Settling Defendants.
(d)Notwithstanding the foregoing, the Beneficiary may deny registration to any Subject Vehicle on the basis that the Subject Vehicle fails to meet EPA’s or the Beneficiary’s failure criteria for the onboard diagnostic (OBD) inspection; or on other grounds authorized or required under applicable federal regulations (including an approved State Implementation Plan) or under Section 209 or 177 of the Clean Air Act and not explicitly excluded in subparagraphs 9(a)-(b).
As an FYI (for those thinking of speculative purchases)here are the affected vehicles:
2.0 liter diesel models and model years
• Jetta (2009-2015)
• Jetta Sportwagen (2009-2014)
• Beetle (2013-2015)
• Beetle Convertible (2013-2015)
• Audi A3 (2010-2015)
• Golf (2010-2015)
• Golf Sportwagen (2015)
• Passat (2012-2015)
3.0 liter diesel vehicle models and model years
• Volkswagen Touareg (2009-2016)
• Porsche Cayenne (2013-2016)
• Audi A6 Quattro (2014-2016)
• Audi A7 Quattro (2014-2016)
• Audi A8 (2014-2016)
• Audi A8L (2014-2016)
• Audi Q5 (2014-2016)
• Audi Q7 (2009-2016)
California is basically its own country, so if you live anywhere else, your State is unlikely to turn down this VERY large pile of "free" cash and your registration and your VWs future is up to you. As I mentioned, just this one part of the punitive settlement is costing VW $2.7B. There's another chunk about that size going to the Feds, as I recall. Then there's the customer reimbursement. A very costly gamble for VW.