Yes, I know it's an auction, so the answer is "more than the other guy". But, I figure some may be able to give some guidance on how much to budget.
The car I'm looking at is a late model flood car. In good condition KBB says $42k. Reality in today's market is probably $50-$55k. The other bookend in my head is that the engine and trans seem to go for $10k give or take on eBay. No notation about it being a runner, but there is a pic of the dash on with the mileage displayed, so it has some level of life left in it.
So, given all that, any insight into how much to expect it to go for?
From what you said that sounds very high risk low reward. I would look up what the fenders are worth and bid that.
Mr_Asa
PowerDork
9/16/21 10:16 a.m.
I think you can look at auctions that have ended. Any in similar condition on there?
I would make sure to know what you are paying in total fees when you calculate what you are willing to bid. Even on copart "runs and drives" only means they were able to put it in gear move it forward and backwards.
Remember that work costs about the same no matter the car. So if a 50k car needs 50 hours of labor (call it 5k?) to be back on the road its worth 42 or 43 to someone. If a 10k car needs 50 hours of labor, then its nearly worthless, except to breakers.
Anyway, the point is that wrecked cars that are still worth a lot see much lower discount percentages for the damage than cheap ones do. 10k car could be 50-75% off, while the 50k car is only 10% discount.
I don't watch a lot of auctions, but the ones i have seen I'm always blown away at the prices people pay (higher than I expect).
FEES. Be sure you understand the fees!
$12k is the simplified answer. So simple its almost like just pulled the answer out of the air.
More detail and at best a link to the actual vehicle would be most helpful
I know I am not the demographic buyer you are referencing since your expectation is north of $50k. But if I was in the market for a $50k plus car I am never going to pay that for one with a flood damage record. No matter what the current market looks like.
If it is something rare or interesting I would guess it goes for north of $25k
I'd be vary wary of a flood car. What's your intent? Do you want to fix it up and use it, or are you buying it for parts?
In my salvage buying experience, I have focused on cars that had less than $6k value pre-accident. This is because even a light dent will cause $3k of body shop damage and then at this 50% or greater delta the insurance company often totals the car. This has netted me cars that need anywhere from $0 to $1000 worth of "good enough" repairs.
The game and the gamble gets a lot larger at the high dollar level.
Speaking of gamble, I always buy vehicles that I can put my hands on the day before real bidding. The pictures are deceiving. Flood can mean a lot of things anywhere from "sunroof left open" to bottom of the lake and in between. However, my real belief is that SOOOO MANY flood vehicles are put back on the road via shops that specialize in 'reconditioning" cars. This reconditioning often involves "title washing" to get the flood designation off the car. So, you'll be price competing with some shady players and to "win" your could very well get drawn into playing their shady games too.
If your goal is parting out, your gonna be price competing with the large dismantlers. These are the people that have body shops coming to them to source repair parts. Much less likely that the "legit shops" will be sourcing your FB/CL ad to purchase parts for drivetrain repairs. And, if they do, they will be much less willing to pay the prices they would pay the dismantlers who offer them some warranty or recourse.
Your other large price competitor is out of county. The flood designation will not travel cross borders. I would often watch Tacoma and Land Cruiser type vehicles getting bid on via the web and so many of the bidders were from North Africa and other Island nations.
Some stats from CarFax EU:
There is a wide range of countries importing U.S. cars with a salvage title; some relatively few, and others disproportionately many. Here is the list of the top 8 countries from the last 6 years:
- Lithuania (49%): Out of 157,507 U.S. imports, 77,275 have a salvage title.
- Georgia (45.4%): Out of 57,819 U.S. imports, 26,220 have a salvage title.
- Poland (36.2%): Out of 32,220 U.S. imports, 11,663 have a salvage title.
- Italy (15%): Out of 18,977 U.S. imports, 2,867 have a salvage title.
- Netherlands (9.6%): Out of 34,558 U.S. imports, 3,314 have a salvage title.
- Germany (7.3%): Out of 278,256 U.S. imports, 20,206 have a salvage title.
- Finland (6.3%): Out of 50,339 U.S. imports, 3,176 have a salvage title.
- Belgium (2.9%): Out of 67,809 U.S. imports, 1,965 have a salvage title.
Alright, ya'll don't go sniping my car.... https://www.copart.com/lot/56944251/2017-chevrolet-ss-nj-trenton
It was a flood, so OTHER than that, the car looks nice and straight. Could be as little as replacing a few computers and a wiring harness or two and changing all the fluids and airing it out. Could be a disaster that never sees the light of day again.
Can't see completed auctions on copart.
Fees - Yep, understood.
Value - yeah, I meant clean ones sell for north of $50k. I'd expect a car with flood history to sell for half that once it's made right.
My intention wouldn't be to flip. Plan A would be, if it can be made right with minimal drama, do that and then daily drive it. Plan B would be if it can't be made right reasonably easily, keep the drivetrain to swap into my Mustang and part out the rest.
I gather GM computers are more open than some, but on anything modern I'd look specifically into the stumbling blocks on swapping electronics.
The swap doesn't scare me at all.
I'm kinda thinking if I can get it for the ~$10k that I'd pay retail for the drivetrain, then minimal risk if it can't be saved. Just not sure if that expectation is at all reasonable.
On the one hand, it being a relatively rare car, I'm guessing that it's not worth as much to dismantlers. Flip side, for folks like me that know that manual trans sedans are unicorns these days and who are thinking the same way I am, maybe that inflates it. Not sure.
I don't see that going for $10K.
I think it'll go for high teens-low $20s because someone has to have it and then they are going to live with electrical issues for a long time. That car looked like it got deep into the water given the photos there. I'm just looking at the dirt stains.
Oh, that car will get title washed! Very nice looking car.
Some things I see:
Pic 2: NS on windshield. Does this stand for No Start? Does it say the car actually drives?
Pic 3: Could be camera distortion but does the front wheel camber look bad? Is that a trailer hitch?
Pic 5: I was looking for how much residue is on the carpets. The carpets look clean but this is also listed as an enhanced vehicle auction. How much was cleaned? Seems the floor mats have been pulled.
Pic 6: looks like the owner had a rear seat protector for like a dog. That would have been easy to throw away if it was wet/dirty/muddy but it looks clean and they kept it there.
Pic 8: is the fuel empty? Just odd. The tach is at zero so the car is not started when the picture was taken yet the odo lights up. My guess is no fuel gauge until actually started.
Pic 9: interesting that they gave a WL (water level)
Pic 10: I googled the vin but it brought up nothing. I dont have access to carfax.
There's a ton of condensation inside the glass, so not only did it get very wet, it's still wet. It's probably been in process for weeks to months and is moldy and stinky as heck, and the electronics have had plenty of time to fester while wet.
DILYSI Dave said:
The swap doesn't scare me at all.
I'm kinda thinking if I can get it for the ~$10k that I'd pay retail for the drivetrain, then minimal risk if it can't be saved. Just not sure if that expectation is at all reasonable.
On the one hand, it being a relatively rare car, I'm guessing that it's not worth as much to dismantlers. Flip side, for folks like me that know that manual trans sedans are unicorns these days and who are thinking the same way I am, maybe that inflates it. Not sure.
No, not $10k. So much more to be made by the shaddy folk. Keep the vin for your records. Shop for a blue SS in a few months!
$30k plus is my guess.
Locally, you would be bidding against these guys: https://www.clevelandpap.com/cars-for-sale/
TGMF
HalfDork
9/16/21 2:00 p.m.
having worked on flood cars in the past, unless you pluck em out of the water right away, tear it apart and get things dried out, and cleaned, its a never ending nightmare. Salt water would be even worse. As pointed out, it appears to still be wet, which means it's actively ruining E36 M3 was we discus it, and it's probably already been a week or more. Personally I'd stay far away from it. Worth it at 10k, but this car won't go for that in this market.
You have good taste, sir.
I was going to point out that near Trenton recently has a "500 year" flood so I wouldn't expect this to be a mild dampness or sunroof left open car. Then I saw the pciture of the waterline. Yep, that's half the car that was submerged, including the suspension and a good part of the drivetrain.
To John Welsh's point, the fuel gauge is odd that it isn't reading when powered up for the odometer. Maybe the first sign of a bad sensor electronics?
If you want to be a pro-stalker, I'd bet there is a 10-20% chance that someone with a manual SS was on a marque page. I'd find the SS internet forum and look for recent posts with a tale of post-Ida sadness. You might find the previous owner who could tell you if it was fresh or salt water.
Wow, that is a unicorn - I didn't know they were even available with a manual transmission.
Nice car, but I wouldn't touch that example with my enemy's dick. Condensation inside the glass is no bueno. I'd much rather fix a front end hit than that disaster. At least with a front end hit, you know it was running right up until it wasn't, and the damage is (mainly) just what you can see.
I have done a couple flood cars over the years. As long as it is fresh water and it is not complete pond scum or sewage laced water it is not so bad.
The key is to put eyes on it. Never purchase a flood car with put personally inspecting it.
Don't understand people concern about the fuel gauge. It was most likely drained if it is an enhanced car. Keeps people from starting it in the yard with a tank full of water. They may dump a couple gallons in to see if it runs but not enough to move the gauge.
I would want to look at the oil and other fluids and I would want to really look at the car to see what the real flood level is. Don't trust the lines drawn on these cars. Could be anyone to scare people. Or it could be arbitrary by the insurance and it was up much higher.
Enhanced flood cars to me mean they are hiding something. You need to inspect the interior and really figure out how much water it was really in.