How will autonomous cars affect our sport? And what are we doing about it today?

pointofdeparture wrote: One thing to keep in mind: while autonomous vehicles are quickly becoming a reality in the "western" nations, in many other areas of the world current infrastructure is incapable of supporting them and due to geographical or economic concerns autonomous vehicles will not be implemented for a very long time, if they ever are at all.

I'm curious about this point. Can you explain your reasoning? For example, in 3rd world countries, there is little landline telecom infrastructure, and therefore new tech like cell phones actually took off faster and with more options than here. There are plenty of places in the world where a given human is more likely to have access to a smartphone than a flushing toilet.

So, wouldn't lack of infrastructure make driverless cars easier and actually be an accelerator?

Avalanche325 wrote: Eventually, it will lead to race cars being a country club or tow your car thing.

I'm not sure this is exactly what you are saying, but you caused me to think of this question - with mainstream driver-less cars, what will happen to parking lots? Will the autox venues start drying up?

Robbie wrote:

pointofdeparture wrote: One thing to keep in mind: while autonomous vehicles are quickly becoming a reality in the "western" nations, in many other areas of the world current infrastructure is incapable of supporting them and due to geographical or economic concerns autonomous vehicles will not be implemented for a very long time, if they ever are at all.

I'm curious about this point. Can you explain your reasoning? For example, in 3rd world countries, there is little landline telecom infrastructure, and therefore new tech like cell phones actually took off faster and with more options than here. There are plenty of places in the world where a given human is more likely to have access to a smartphone than a flushing toilet. So, wouldn't lack of infrastructure make driverless cars easier and actually be an accelerator?

I see your point, but ultimately I wonder who pays for the necessary development (and the end product) in countries where the world's cheapest cars like Ladas and Tatas are considered an absolutely massive purchase, and most roads aren't even paved let alone lighted. Heck, lots of people in the world still don't have consistent access to electricity, but a lot of them do have rugged, basic vehicles. The technology would have to get extremely cheap extremely quickly and someone is going to have to invest heavily in autonomous cars that can safely traverse routes that can barely be called roads.

Makes me wonder how the autonomous vehicles already out there would do if you told them to go up a treacherous unpaved mountain path.

Wasn't the first robotic car challenge across the desert in the southwest? I forget if it was DARPA, but they did it a few years then switched to city roads since it was too easy without traffic.

Not really making a point, I just find it interesting.

Yeah, that stuff is pretty cool, but my thought would be that the stakes involved change a little when carrying living human people is involved. Kind of like the crazy quadrupedal DARPA robots you can see all over YouTube. Really interesting to see them run and hop and go up stairs and everything, but as you get closer to the ultimate goal of having something like that carry weapons alongside human beings in a battlefield the margin for error decreases exponentially

I have my doubts about these cars. They are going to be ridiculously regulated, transportation unions are going to have torches and pitchforks that will make their work against Uber seem as childsplay, studies have been done in the past on other automated technology and humans always end up interfering the AI's choices, companies are not going to accept being sued because their customers get in an accident, and train, light rail, ship, etc automation is always regulating as requiring human interaction and attention.

If it really does come massively it's not going to be what people think it is. I bet if we have fully automated sleep while you drive cars at all it will be regulated as having to be in a special lane like a tram. If anyone thinks the government, or car companies, are going to make it so you don't have to pay attention at all and all liability is on the car company and all trust is put into the machine then they have no idea. Literal automated trains on RAILS are not even allowed this.

I think we'll see non-autonomous car ownership become increasingly expensive and inconvenient. Combined with the decreased interest in cars among younger people, and I expect motorsports participation to drop to a point where it's even more of a wealthy man's sport than it currently is. On a grassroots level, the hardcore folks will stick around, but probably have to find the cheapest point of entry possible to justify the hobby.

James May recently wrote a short article about this. He argued that driving will become similar to sailboats and airplanes: they'll shift away from practical tools to (rich guy) hobbies.

The good news (according to him) is there will be no need for Camrys loaded with 4K lbs of safety equipment and more demand for fun, analog, and beautiful cars like the Exige or GT3 RS. Sounds like Jay Leno makes a similar comparison about horses.

The biggest issue we face is assigning points. If your autonomous car runs an autocross course faster than all other cars in your class because it is millimeter precise, do you get the points? You're the owner, but you didn't actually do the driving. And what if you run an autonomous-equipped car at the autocross? I would challenge your win based on the fact that you probably had driver aids helping you. You'd need to run in STA, Street Touring Autonomous, not STX. And who gets the trophy at the end of the year? Is the car smart enough to drive itself to the banquet?

kanaric wrote: I have my doubts about these cars. They are going to be ridiculously regulated, transportation unions are going to have torches and pitchforks that will make their work against Uber seem as childsplay, studies have been done in the past on other automated technology and humans always end up interfering the AI's choices, companies are not going to accept being sued because their customers get in an accident, and train, light rail, ship, etc automation is always regulating as requiring human interaction and attention. If it really does come massively it's not going to be what people think it is. I bet if we have fully automated sleep while you drive cars at all it will be regulated as having to be in a special lane like a tram. If anyone thinks the government, or car companies, are going to make it so you don't have to pay attention at all and all liability is on the car company and all trust is put into the machine then they have no idea. Literal automated trains on RAILS are not even allowed this.

I fully think autonomous cars and trucks will be here before commuter trains and buses. Passengers do many unpredictable things that the computers can't necessarily predict and avoid. Until we can train the customers using them to act in ways the computer can work with someone will need to be there to shepherd it along. People focus on the safety aspect as far as not running into things, and not crushing anyone in the doors but there other judgement calls where right now the machines are programed to not be aggressive enough that bog them down. When it's safe to pull off from someone approaching the vehicle and when it would be better to wait, how to handle and angry pedestrian blocking the vehicle, when to adjust you speed approaching or leaving a stop because an elderly person decided to get up and start walking vs. a young person. These are all issues that are along way for being solved in a way that would let systems function as well as they do now.

Robbie wrote:

Mister Fister wrote: You'll have the engineers who are building the cars and programming the computers for the fastest possible laps, and then you'll have the luddites who will actually drive the cars, as said before, just like horse racing.

This is interesting. Does it require two classes at an event? (like street tire vs race tire) or does it required two totally different events? And, how do you keep the engineers out of the 'luddite' classes?

I'd see it as two different sports.

1) Traditional autocross, which will be a niche sport for the wealthy who can afford a non-autonomous car, trailer, garage space, and old parts - just like horses today.

2) Autonomous racing for the plebes.

Brett_Murphy wrote:

Avalanche325 wrote: All 17 year olds liked cars when I grew up. Except for that one nerd, I think he started Microsoft or Apple or something.

Bill Gates loves cars, and has a record of driving them way too fast on public roads when he was younger.

I believe he has some very rare cars, perhaps even one quasi-legal import in the form of a 959.

pinchvalve wrote: The biggest issue we face is assigning points. If your autonomous car runs an autocross course faster than all other cars in your class because it is millimeter precise, do you get the points? You're the owner, but you didn't actually do the driving. And what if you run an autonomous-equipped car at the autocross? I would challenge your win based on the fact that you probably had driver aids helping you. You'd need to run in STA, Street Touring Autonomous, not STX. And who gets the trophy at the end of the year? Is the car smart enough to drive itself to the banquet?

This is what I am really trying to get at here. I know we've had the autonomous when/what/how conversation ad nauseum, but I'm interested in how it will affect the sport, especially in the short term.

I dread the day they become mandated. As has been said in this thread it will make racing, even at the local level, something only the wealthy can afford. Which to me is just wrong.

SAE automated vehicle classifications:

Level 0: Automated system has no vehicle control, but may issue warnings.
Level 1: Driver must be ready to take control at any time. Automated system may include features such as Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC), Parking Assistance with automated steering, and Lane Keeping Assistance (LKA) Type II in any combination.
Level 2: The driver is obliged to detect objects and events and respond if the automated system fails to respond properly. The automated system executes accelerating, braking, and steering. The automated system can deactivate immediately upon takeover by the driver.
Level 3: Within known, limited environments (such as freeways), the driver can safely turn their attention away from driving tasks.
Level 4: The automated system can control the vehicle in all but a few environments such as severe weather. The driver must enable the automated system only when it is safe to do so. When enabled, driver attention is not required.
Level 5: Other than setting the destination and starting the system, no human intervention is required. The automatic system can drive to any location where it is legal to drive.

Thats the SAE framework. Keep in mind that a TESLA is a Level 2, NOT a level 3 (they in fact have been in a bit of trouble in various ways for blurring that 2-3 line) we are currently a ways off Level 5, which is the one that I think worries most of you.

The way that the sensor systems and such that I have seen work, I dont know about off-road ability. Its just not much of a focus that I have seen. At least not at any rate of speed.

As far as motorsports, I think it will develop a separate catagory, as seen with http://roborace.com/ Which will prove to be a very interesting technical challenge.

The way I see it, you will probably eventually see drivers championships for a spec vehicle (you already see some motion towards it) and the constructors/innovators championship may tend towards autonomous in the future. If you think in F1 like terms, we can already build a car that can kill a driver within its normal operational envelope. They are limiting some things in F1 to keep lateral forces in the 5G range, so an autonomous series would take the human limitation factor out of the equation. (just as how people think that Manned dogfighting of aircraft wont last forever, because without the man in it, it can do MUCH harsher maneuvers)

I just dont see levels 2-4 being applicable. who would want to? I mean, yeah, in limited test cases (roborace is in L2-L4 testing right now), but thats slated to go away once the testing has been proven. https://www.youtube.com/embed/2oBnWsVhJms

They have a video series starting with this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUOJVWV5Ej0

How would autonomy to the level of that Roborace affect a racing series that uses qualification to set starting position? If the cars are a spec chassis/motor, it seems like it would just come down to having the AI that is programmed to react most quickly. You could choose slightly different racing lines I guess, but when the cars are all the same, you'd quickly find the "fast" line, which would be copied by the rest of the field. You could probably have an algorithm plot out the fastest line, so you'd have the same cars doing the same lines with no passing. You could still have mechanical failures during the race that would shake up the field, but it seems like it would be a potentially fast, but boring parade from a spectating standpoint.

The human element is what makes racing more than just a technical exhibition. The mistakes, the agressive vs patient approach, the stress that a driver in a trailing car can put on a leader, the willingness to brake later, or the discipline to brake early and exit faster. I don't think any of that exists when it's a fleet of AI controlled spec cars with very known limits hitting their marks every corner of every lap, never making mistakes.

I'm not so sure autonomous vehicles will be the end of motorsports as we know them as the lack of interest as technology increases. When I first started fooling around with cars in the 60's to most guys and some gals cars were the center of our interest be it just driving or racing. Over the decades I have witnessed that interest wane to TV's at first and now electronics in various forms. Sure there are always new gear heads coming on the scene with interests in cars/super cars but not so much when it comes to garage or shop time. Autonomous vehicles will become just another appliance like cell phones, computers, etc.

Drive by your local high school and all you see is mostly new cars rather then cars built by desire or neccesity. I have eight grand kids six of them boys and while they are interested in some of my projects or cars, truth be told they would rather spend their time playing video games,on their computer or phone. At their age I spent my time reading, working on cars or at any type motorsport event I could find, Not saying it is right or wrong just different. Go to any cruise in track event and the majority of people there have gray hair with only a few young folks. That's why it important to talk to and encourage the young about motorsports. However, I think in the end we are in a downward spiral and autonomous vehicles will only hasten the decent. However, I'm sure there remain someone out there to tinker and improve on what they have if it is not forbidden by laws.

I've already started doing something, but I can't tell you- it's a secret.

SVreX wrote: I've already started doing something, but I can't tell you- it's a secret.

I was wondering where you were...

SVreX wrote: I've already started doing something, but I can't tell you- it's a secret.

You can't say that and then not tell us.

In reply to Wall-e:

Of course I can!

In reply to Wall-e:

Actually, I've been dropping clues on this forum for 6 months.

One very perceptive reader actually PMed me and guessed it.

You, however, will have to wait.

The future of racing vehicles will be the driver "programming and tuning" the vehicle's sensors instead of "manhandling" a bunch of wheels and levers inside the vehicle.

Throttle by wire - already there

Dual Clutch/Auto boxes - already there

Nissan's Steering by wire - basically already there

So guess what instead of groping a bunch of levers and wheels with your big clumsy hands you as a driver will be delicately groping a keyboard with your finger tips or speaking into a microphone to control and optimize your vehicle around whatever the set course may be. (if you drive anything relatively modern throttle by wire you are already a third of the way there...)

Motorsports are already divided by money. We are limiting this discussion to autocross and rallycross, but some would argue that those are not even motorsports.

Professional motorsports do not have Camrys on the track.

So, we who participate in these amateur motorsports have chosen a venue we can play in that utilizes vehicles different than "real" race cars, that are readily available, at a price point we can afford. We race our street cars.

So, if our street cars become too valuable to play with, we will race something else. There will be 2 different types of racing- racing with street (autonomous) cars, and dedicated amateur race cars (manually driven).

We will also race karts, bikes, motorized shopping carts, and our tractor lawn mowers.

We will still race.

Autonomous car racing will develop as a venue to showcase the limits that are far beyond what can be done in a manual car.

Forget figure 8 racing- how about a track that looked like a pile of spaghetti, with hundreds or even thousands of alternate paths to the finish line? Inverted racing?

How about racing inside acrylic tubes, so full 3D race lines could be developed at all times?

Drive on water? Backwards racing?

How about a race with over 1000 entrants? That would break it loose from every car following the "perfect" line.

Race classes based on treadwear rating, or no rubber at all (alternatives?).

Races that included multiple road surfaces- asphalt, concrete, dirt, hillclimb all rolled into one (with no change of tires)

How about remote controls? Cars could be programmed for crash avoidance only, and kids could race real F-1 cars remotely from their laptops. The driver chooses the race line, the autonomous car is controlling the "self-preservation" aspects (including protecting itself from being destroyed by it's own driver).

It will certainly quickly become a playground for the filthy rich, but that will just make it identical to racing today.