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Boost_Crazy
Boost_Crazy Dork
5/16/23 3:29 p.m.

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

 

Again, the people this affected are very much alive and America has done FAR worse with slavery and the Native Americans. It's absolutely outdated, but that doesn't mean people just stopped being racist- much in the same way that a pattern of thinking may be a logical fallacy, but it doesn't mean people still don't use said fallacies.
 

This makes little sense in the context of the current discussion. It could be argued that almost every significant historical event has influence on modern day life, but we don't bring that up in every modern discussion. You didn't mention that your Tesla was built on land taken from the Ohlone Native Americans. Germany has a well developed high speed rail system. Can we discuss that without discussing their questionable history? America has done far worse? China had slaves TODAY. Ironically, slaves that are likely connected to the production of your Tesla- along with many of the other goods that we buy. 
 

Doesn't matter. It was systemic, and he was one part of that system; he and others did the same things all over America, and only now is it being focused upon.

It does matter, for the reasons above and many more. I said your examples are not comparable, because not only are you a comparing a city with a nation, you are comparing them 70 years apart. Apples and oranges literally have more in common with each other than your examples. 

Well the video was so good as a response, you'll find the original video it was against was taken down by it's creator.
 

So what? You linked an opinion response to another opinion that no one here shared. Are you trying to tie that argument to mine simply because the subject is the same? 

As for expense? All I hear is the dollar value, but I always have to search for long-term impact. The cost of an electric bullet train is obvious, but what traffic benefits does it provide? What does that lack of exhaust do to public health? Does it's regular use change your tax base by say, condensing a living space? How much longer-lived are your roads if you take thousands of cars off of them? What deficiencies does the project expose, both with people and with government planning? Are they correcting those issues or ignoring them? What infrastructure benefits are happening to make this line? And when it gets completed, will it lead to bigger and better down the line? And when does the constant screeching of "it's too expensive" eventually become a self-serving prophecy, to keep us from building anything?

You understand what money is, right? It's a medium of exchange to trade goods and services. Dollars are finite and represent a finite about of resources. So it does matter what things cost. Spend too much on a poor solution and you don't have enough left for a better solution.

What I'm getting at is- I have heard for decades the constant whining of "It CoStS tOo MuCh!!!!1!!111!!" about any potential improvement to society without ever hearing anything else, and then days later was having it arrive in my ER because something was ignored out of convenience or worthless political ideology. Even just a page ago someone was trying desperately to ignore ideas because they were "European" or "Chinese" in origin- it's all a worthless cope by people who have been duped for decades into putting on blinders about what we spend taxes on, being told to think that austerity measures EVER work from people who profit from them- meanwhile expensive but world-beneficial things like our military are somehow different. My point is, as an American taxpayer and someone who's only JUST getting out of the "Working poor" class who's tax dollars already go to millions of tiny works I'll never see, I don't really care about cost if the long-term math works out to society getting better. 
 

But you do care, you are just being too short sighted to see how much failed projects like this work against your goals. They could have spent the money on countless other projects with better results. This project is many times over budget, won't go where it was supposed to go, won't go the speeds promised, won't serve the number of people promised, and is decades behind. And you are defending it, because somewhere, well down the line, it might do some good. And that is the trap. Some good. By that definition, we should have unlimited budgets on just about everything that does "some good." How would you feel about your Tesla under the same circumstances? You sign on the dotted line, and they charge you 5x the agreed upon price. And you can't have it for 3 years but your payments start next month. And it won't drive into some of the major cities. And top speed is cut to 55mph. But think of all of the good you are doing! 
 

For the record, I predict California's high speed rail project will be obsolete before it is completed. I'm not very optimistic on self driving cars, but I think a self driving express lane down highway 5 from Sacramento to LA is much more probable than high speed rail linking the same cities. 

 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/16/23 4:48 p.m.

In reply to Boost_Crazy :

The reason I'm buying a Tesla with "self Driving". Is I understand my skills and awareness will deteriorate as I age.  
  Having "hands Free, Self driving, intelligent cruise control" etc  will keep me Mobil longer.   I'll be able to visit the doctor, go shopping, etc much longer.   
  That will save the tax payers 5-6,000 per month.  That's what the going rate for assisted living is.  If I remember correctly the average person lives about 1&1/2 years in assisted living.  That's at least $90,000.  
     If you don't have the cash when it's time. They don't put you on the dung heap and let the buzzards pick you apart.  They take your Social Security, any retirement savings , Sell your house  and anything else you have. And when that is all gone the tax payers pick up the rest.  

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/16/23 6:15 p.m.
GIRTHQUAKE said:

As for expense? All I hear is the dollar value, but I always have to search for long-term impact. The cost of an electric bullet train is obvious, but what traffic benefits does it provide? What does that lack of exhaust do to public health? Does it's regular use change your tax base by say, condensing a living space? How much longer-lived are your roads if you take thousands of cars off of them? What deficiencies does the project expose, both with people and with government planning? Are they correcting those issues or ignoring them? What infrastructure benefits are happening to make this line? And when it gets completed, will it lead to bigger and better down the line? And when does the constant screeching of "it's too expensive" eventually become a self-serving prophecy, to keep us from building anything?

What I'm getting at is- I have heard for decades the constant whining of "It CoStS tOo MuCh!!!!1!!111!!" about any potential improvement to society without ever hearing anything else, and then days later was having it arrive in my ER because something was ignored out of convenience or worthless political ideology. Even just a page ago someone was trying desperately to ignore ideas because they were "European" or "Chinese" in origin- it's all a worthless cope by people who have been duped for decades into putting on blinders about what we spend taxes on, being told to think that austerity measures EVER work from people who profit from them- meanwhile expensive but world-beneficial things like our military are somehow different. My point is, as an American taxpayer and someone who's only JUST getting out of the "Working poor" class who's tax dollars already go to millions of tiny works I'll never see, I don't really care about cost if the long-term math works out to society getting better. 

How do you really decide what improvements in infrastructure to pursue and what improvements are too expensive to pursue. By the "too expensive" standard we never would have had a space program or have gone to the moon. The only thing that pushed it forward was our fear of the Soviet Union parking satellites above us while we had no capabilities in space at all. How much time and money did Thomas Edison waste pursuing non-working experiments before he created a working light bulb. How much money did Edison waste on DC powerplants before Westinghouse and Nicola Tesla invented Alternating Current system that actually worked. Lots of money was wasted back then and at least one elephant died. The government had to wire some parts of the country through the TVA. The Chinese and the Japanese can make bullet trains work. Why can't we? Why do venture capitalist in the Silicon Valley piss money away in every direction hoping that at least 10% of the money they dish out leads to a new discovery and a profitable business? Why does SpaceX blow up one rocket after another until they build the one that doesn't blow up?

Itcoststoomuchism sounds to me like an excuse to do nothing at all and just lock up the process until the highways we invested public money in back in the Eisenhower era just falls apart and itcoststomuch to fill the potholes, and the rest of the world moves on with faster and more efficient forms of transportation. Itcoststoomuchism is the beginning of stagnation. Maybe we should just throw in the towel and use the excess money to build more wonderful golf courses for the one percenters while the Chinese move forward to rule the world.

 

Boost_Crazy
Boost_Crazy Dork
5/16/23 7:38 p.m.

In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :

You figured it out. The only two choices are do everything you want, no cost spared, or do nothing at all. 
 

 

Or we could use math and reason like any responsible individual, business, or government should do. There are well defined processes for decision making. Cost benefit analysis? ROI calculation? Net CO2 reduction per dollar spent? Compute how many decades it will be before the CO2 emissions saved will offset all of the CO2 emissions from construction? 

In the case of the California high speed rail project, ignorant voters passed a ballot initiative that lied about the every aspect of the project, from cost to routes to speed of the train. They did the math that I'm talking about, you don't get to put multi billion dollar projects on the ballot without hiring a guy to do some math. I specifically used this as an example of using deceit to get a public works project going knowing full well it will be too hard to kill by the time the truth comes out. There is very little support for the project in it's current state. Many of the early supporters have withdrawn their support, including some involved in the original proposal. If you have seen the numbers and still think this is a good idea, you are either a politician, one of the contractors awarded a bid, or an idealist that is really bad at math.  
 

Your examples of innovation are also not applicable, as there is nothing innovative about this project. Failing when trying to do something innovative is understandable. Failing when the path is already known is just failure. And you literally compared building a choo-choo train with rocket science. 
 

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) UberDork
5/16/23 7:41 p.m.

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

This is well....  ironic.  You want me to look at data correlated from Antarctic ice cores.  Well according to all the climate change fear mongers those ice cores wouldn't even exist today.  My point is that the ability to gather detailed measurements on the climate is relatively new.  Man has known about hurricanes for a long time.  Really recent though we can put aircraft on the eye of a hurricane and get fascinating data.  
 

I don't think destroying economies and making silly decrees takes precedence over food and shelter.  The same people promising to feed, clothe, and house everyone aren't going to stop the temperature of the planet from changing if I pay more taxes.  These people are actually going to recreate skid row everywhere long before the ice caps melt.  I'm not supporting that E36 M3 no matter how much you complain. Others should say no to the E36 M3 too.  

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/16/23 8:38 p.m.
Boost_Crazy said:

In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :

You figured it out. The only two choices are do everything you want, no cost spared, or do nothing at all. 
 

 

Or we could use math and reason like any responsible individual, business, or government should do. There are well defined processes for decision making. Cost benefit analysis? ROI calculation? Net CO2 reduction per dollar spent? Compute how many decades it will be before the CO2 emissions saved will offset all of the CO2 emissions from construction? 

In the case of the California high speed rail project, ignorant voters passed a ballot initiative that lied about the every aspect of the project, from cost to routes to speed of the train. They did the math that I'm talking about, you don't get to put multi billion dollar projects on the ballot without hiring a guy to do some math. I specifically used this as an example of using deceit to get a public works project going knowing full well it will be too hard to kill by the time the truth comes out. There is very little support for the project in it's current state. Many of the early supporters have withdrawn their support, including some involved in the original proposal. If you have seen the numbers and still think this is a good idea, you are either a politician, one of the contractors awarded a bid, or an idealist that is really bad at math.  
 

Your examples of innovation are also not applicable, as there is nothing innovative about this project. Failing when trying to do something innovative is understandable. Failing when the path is already known is just failure. And you literally compared building a choo-choo train with rocket science. 
 

That seems to be how it works. Block everything and nothing gets done. Break some eggs and E36 M3 gets done. Want to see public money get wasted and  create a lot of crooked land deals and a big mess? Read the history of bringing water to the Southern California suburbs, or watch the movie, Chinatown. But in the end, a lot of housing was built, businesses moved in and the area grew to the benefit of everyone.

Elon Musk gets money from the government to do rocket science and so do a lot of other companies. How much does it cost to blow up a rocket when your neighbors are bitching about stuff hitting their roof. You have to break a few eggs. See you on Mars. China subsidizes solar panels and the US was blocked from doing the same. The Chinese government wasted a lot of money on that so they could later control the market. Not exactly rocket science but it does create jobs. We buy a lot of solar panels from China.

Yeah. They complained about the cost of the highways too, called a bunch of people names and so on. They finally said we needed the freeways for civil defense. I'm not really defending the California Rail Project, although you accuse me of it. Maybe it could have been done better. I don't really keep track of what they do in Calfornia. I disagree with many things they do there. But the Califonia voters bought it. Blame them. Not me. I saw another proposal for another high speed rail project that would take people from San Francisco to Stockton with stops along the way in places where they could build cheaper housing for San Francisco workers. Run your numbers on that one. A much shorter distance and a solution to the affordable housing problem in the Bay Area. Less traffic. More people getting to work on time. That sounded like a better idea. Sometimes rail can be the answer. What are your alternatives? Make the freeways wider? Bigger airports? You only have so much sky, especially with all those private jets adding to the commercial traffic. I think there are a combination of solutions.

Unless you seem to think that trains might be the work of Satan. Or maybe Satan is better at numbers or the politicians and contractors are evil.

Oh well. Maybe we should call this debating group of ours ...

 

 

 

Boost_Crazy
Boost_Crazy Dork
5/16/23 10:04 p.m.

In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :

That seems to be how it works.

No, it only seems that way when you are uninformed and fill in the details with nonsense. 

Block everything and nothing gets done. Break some eggs and E36 M3 gets done.
 

Again, we only get two choices? 

Want to see public money get wasted and  create a lot of crooked land deals and a big mess? Read the history of bringing water to the Southern California suburbs, or watch the movie, Chinatown. But in the end, a lot of housing was built, businesses moved in and the area grew to the benefit of everyone.

So your strategy of choice is to make a poor decision, deal with it, and hope it works out in the end? You do realize that for every one of those that worked out in the end, most failed miserably right? 

Elon Musk gets money from the government to do rocket science and so do a lot of other companies. How much does it cost to blow up a rocket when your neighbors are bitching about stuff hitting their roof. You have to break a few eggs. See you on Mars.

Again, please connect the dots between a largely privately funded space program doing things that have not been done, and a failed pubic works project building a slower version of a nearly 60 year old train. Your comparisons may as well be from Mars, they don't make any sense on this planet. 

China subsidizes solar panels and the US was blocked from doing the same. The Chinese government wasted a lot of money on that so they could later control the market. Not exactly rocket science but it does create jobs. We buy a lot of solar panels from China.

What are you talking about? The US did and does indeed subsidize solar. We don't have state owned manufacturers like China. China dumped underpriced modules on the market (they don't need to turn a profit like privately owned companies) in an effort to drive US companies out business. In response, we put tariffs on Chinese solar (and they have still had some success as they found ways to evade the tariffs.) I paid close attention as this developed years ago as the push for the tariffs were led by Solarworld, who I was closely partnered with at the time. You do realize that China doesn't "create jobs" quite the way we do, right? 

Yeah. They complained about the cost of the highways too, called a bunch of people names and so on. They finally said we needed the freeways for civil defense. I'm not really defending the California Rail Project, although you accuse me of it. Maybe it could have been done better. I don't really keep track of what they do in Calfornia. I disagree with many things they do there. But the Califonia voters bought it. Blame them. Not me. I saw another proposal for another high speed rail project that would take people from San Francisco to Stockton with stops along the way in places where they could build cheaper housing for San Francisco workers. Run your numbers on that one. A much shorter distance and a solution to the affordable housing problem in the Bay Area. Less traffic. More people getting to work on time. That sounded like a better idea. Sometimes rail can be the answer. What are your alternatives? Make the freeways wider? Bigger airports? You only have so much sky, especially with all those private jets adding to the commercial traffic. I think there are a combination of solutions.


Silly question. Why did you insert yourself into a conversation and share opinions about something that you know nothing about? 

Unless you seem to think that trains might be the work of Satan. Or maybe Satan is better at numbers or the politicians and contractors are evil.

Oh, he was definitely on the planning commission, and more than a few sold him their souls to get this project going. 
 

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/17/23 1:26 a.m.
Boost_Crazy said:

In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :


Silly question. Why did you insert yourself into a conversation and share opinions about something that you know nothing about? 

So I know nothing.

Well. Enlighten me then. What do you know? How would you solve our transportation problem?

 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/17/23 8:35 a.m.
Boost_Crazy said:

In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :

That seems to be how it works.

No, it only seems that way when you are uninformed and fill in the details with nonsense. 

Block everything and nothing gets done. Break some eggs and E36 M3 gets done.
 

Again, we only get two choices? 

Want to see public money get wasted and  create a lot of crooked land deals and a big mess? Read the history of bringing water to the Southern California suburbs, or watch the movie, Chinatown. But in the end, a lot of housing was built, businesses moved in and the area grew to the benefit of everyone.

So your strategy of choice is to make a poor decision, deal with it, and hope it works out in the end? You do realize that for every one of those that worked out in the end, most failed miserably right? 

Elon Musk gets money from the government to do rocket science and so do a lot of other companies. How much does it cost to blow up a rocket when your neighbors are bitching about stuff hitting their roof. You have to break a few eggs. See you on Mars.

Again, please connect the dots between a largely privately funded space program doing things that have not been done, and a failed pubic works project building a slower version of a nearly 60 year old train. Your comparisons may as well be from Mars, they don't make any sense on this planet. 

China subsidizes solar panels and the US was blocked from doing the same. The Chinese government wasted a lot of money on that so they could later control the market. Not exactly rocket science but it does create jobs. We buy a lot of solar panels from China.

What are you talking about? The US did and does indeed subsidize solar. We don't have state owned manufacturers like China. China dumped underpriced modules on the market (they don't need to turn a profit like privately owned companies) in an effort to drive US companies out business. In response, we put tariffs on Chinese solar (and they have still had some success as they found ways to evade the tariffs.) I paid close attention as this developed years ago as the push for the tariffs were led by Solarworld, who I was closely partnered with at the time. You do realize that China doesn't "create jobs" quite the way we do, right? 

Yeah. They complained about the cost of the highways too, called a bunch of people names and so on. They finally said we needed the freeways for civil defense. I'm not really defending the California Rail Project, although you accuse me of it. Maybe it could have been done better. I don't really keep track of what they do in Calfornia. I disagree with many things they do there. But the Califonia voters bought it. Blame them. Not me. I saw another proposal for another high speed rail project that would take people from San Francisco to Stockton with stops along the way in places where they could build cheaper housing for San Francisco workers. Run your numbers on that one. A much shorter distance and a solution to the affordable housing problem in the Bay Area. Less traffic. More people getting to work on time. That sounded like a better idea. Sometimes rail can be the answer. What are your alternatives? Make the freeways wider? Bigger airports? You only have so much sky, especially with all those private jets adding to the commercial traffic. I think there are a combination of solutions.


Silly question. Why did you insert yourself into a conversation and share opinions about something that you know nothing about? 

Unless you seem to think that trains might be the work of Satan. Or maybe Satan is better at numbers or the politicians and contractors are evil.

Oh, he was definitely on the planning commission, and more than a few sold him their souls to get this project going. 
 

If you want more choices you personally have to select the choice. To do that you need to get elected.  
    That is how our country works. And to a great extent how business gets done.  
          If you think government makes some bad decisions carefully study business.  
        I might point out the failure rate of business. Less than 50% of companies survive even 5 years.  Then if you look at the really successful businesses. It's shocking how much businesses fight with each other. What they pay their lawyers  to "win" those fights.  And how much corporate profit is diverted  into perks. 

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) UberDork
5/17/23 11:22 a.m.
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:
Boost_Crazy said:

In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :


Silly question. Why did you insert yourself into a conversation and share opinions about something that you know nothing about? 

So I know nothing.

Well. Enlighten me then. What do you know? How would you solve our transportation problem?

 

On the list of problems in our society, transportation is quite low.  We don't have a transportation problem.  Leave it alone and let industry, innovation, supply and demand figure this out.  Solved.  
 

I can name 10 bigger problems easily most of which will make the hive here lose it.

Boost_Crazy
Boost_Crazy Dork
5/17/23 12:31 p.m.

In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :

Well. Enlighten me then. What do you know? How would you solve our transportation problem?
 

Are you asking about transportation, or CO2 emitted by transportation? 

If transportation, we really don't have much of a transportation problem. I've traveled from the Bay Area to LA many times with little trouble, both driving and flying. 75% of the drive is along the unofficial CA version of the Autobahn, it's only near the cities that traffic can be an issue. Flying is quick and easy, but doesn't save as much time as you would expect. The flight is short, but by the time you add in driving to the airport, getting there early, getting bags, and picking up a rental car, the trip is pretty close to driving. There are existing trains that do the trip. They are slow, 10 hours or so, due to all of the stops. I've frequently heard that for the cost of the high speed rail project, we could have given CA residents free air travel. I did some quick calcs, and at the current cost estimate, each trip on the train for the next 25 years would pay for about 5 airline tickets between SF and LA. $138b divided by 287 million (11.5 million riders x 25 years) = $480 per trip. Airline tickets from SF to LA are as low as $50, but average around $100. Rounded to 5 flights per train trip. This does not count any fares for the train trips, but also doesn't count any operating costs for the trains. 
 

As for a greener solution, the money could be spent directly to lower CO2 emissions from transportation, or we could improve transportation with existing methods and use some of the "savings" to reduce CO2 elsewhere in a more cost effective manner. If that is the true goal, then is doesn't matter if CO2 is reduced on the SF to LA trip itself or if it's reduced elsewhere. The current projected cost of the train would outright buy 5.5 million EVs. No, I'm not advocating that, and it wouldn't work because much of the money is federal funds, and using federal funds to buy Californians cars doesn't make sense. Just showing you what is possible with the numbers. Realistically, for a fraction of the cost- Improve the existing train system. Make an express route that doesn't stop at every station and cut that 10 hour trip to 6 or 7. We could probably get 75% of the benefits at 10% of the cost by upgrading the existing system. Improve freeways to remove bottlenecks that cause most of the congestion over short stretches of the trip. Build a self driving express lane on I5. Cars can travel close together at high speed. Really, the current project is so bad that almost any other option would be a better option. Including doing nothing. 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/17/23 12:34 p.m.

I agree that industry. , innovation, supply and demand will handle any transportation problem.  
    Well except for unfair advantage.  ( more later) 

     I was shocked to find out that Oil Rich Texas  has more renewables than any other state.  ( yes even California). 
                    Why? 
   Turns out investing in oil isn't very good business. 
     In 2014 globally we were spending 800 billion dollars in discovering and developing oil fields.  
 Since then  it has been a steady down hill reduction in investment.  
  Why?  I mean yes there is plenty of places where oil can be found and we now have Shale  to source oil from Too.  
     But the economics is simply bad.  
  It takes 3-6 years before oil can be extracted and that's if it's on shore.  It's a decade if off shore.    From that point it's 4-8 years before the field breaks even.  
          But renewables has a much faster break even  and profit point.  
    It's as simple as that!!!  
    

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/17/23 12:43 p.m.

Superchargers.  
      Tesla has 45,000 super chargers. Installed nation wide.  Plus they are installing 1000 a month. 
        Globally they are installing 20,000 a year.  Plus the well established Tesla Reliability  is exceeding greater than 90%. While others typically are below 50%. 
       Right now Tesla's chargers are 80% less expensive to build then competitors.   
      
    Why such a push?   
  Nationally America  spends 50 billion dollars on gas  per year.    With their advantages that's a very respectful stream of income.  

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/17/23 1:11 p.m.

In reply to Boost_Crazy :Trains  need ridership to turn a profit.   It's far easier to fill a train going out of the Bay Area to affordable .bedroom communities.  That will also reduce stop and go rush hour traffic on the roads. 2 birds one stone.  

Boost_Crazy
Boost_Crazy Dork
5/17/23 3:04 p.m.

In reply to frenchyd :

In reply to Boost_Crazy :Trains  need ridership to turn a profit.   It's far easier to fill a train going out of the Bay Area to affordable .bedroom communities.  That will also reduce stop and go rush hour traffic on the roads. 2 birds one stone.  
 

You do realize that we have had what you describe for around 50 years, right? It's called BART. They have been horribly mismanaged- some examples of their mismanagement have been legendary. Currently they are publicly begging for money, I kid you not. From their website...

Down on my luck. Can you help a mass transit system out?
 

 

 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/17/23 3:45 p.m.

If you are suggesting that it's hard to run a transit system, I'll agree with you.  
   I don't know of any that  are highly respected. They all cost too much and fail in many ways. 
    Depending on tax income for your primary source of revenue.  Means you cannot "win" 

    But the goal of transit systems isn't to make a profit, but to get low cost people to work.  People without cars.   

Boost_Crazy
Boost_Crazy Dork
5/17/23 5:03 p.m.

In reply to frenchyd :

If you are suggesting that it's hard to run a transit system, I'll agree with you.  
   I don't know of any that  are highly respected. They all cost too much and fail in many ways. 
    Depending on tax income for your primary source of revenue.  Means you cannot "win" 

    But the goal of transit systems isn't to make a profit, but to get low cost people to work.  People without cars.   

??? 
 

Okay then, I have a couple questions for you and anyone else who would defend a seemingly indefensible project like California's high speed rail. 
 

Is there a dollar amount in which you would say no? Is there minimum return in which you would say no (ridership, number of cars removed, etc.?) Or do you truly believe that any result justifies any investment? 

red_stapler
red_stapler SuperDork
5/17/23 5:22 p.m.
frenchyd said:

Superchargers.  
      Tesla has 45,000 super chargers. Installed nation wide.  

Note:  This figure is the number of individual chargers (analogous to a single gas pump) installed *worldwide*, and not the number of stations, of which there are a little over 1700 in the united states.

Opti
Opti SuperDork
5/17/23 5:48 p.m.
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

That seems to be how it works. Block everything and nothing gets done. Break some eggs and E36 M3 gets done. Want to see public money get wasted and  create a lot of crooked land deals and a big mess? Read the history of bringing water to the Southern California suburbs, or watch the movie, Chinatown. But in the end, a lot of housing was built, businesses moved in and the area grew to the benefit of everyone.

Elon Musk gets money from the government to do rocket science and so do a lot of other companies. How much does it cost to blow up a rocket when your neighbors are bitching about stuff hitting their roof. You have to break a few eggs. 

I literally can't even understand having this position. It shows a blatant disregard for what's going on and history. 

What your saying is break other people's eggs doing what I support and cool. Then people cry when someone who doesn't share their priorities and values is in charge and they break your eggs.

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/17/23 6:05 p.m.
Boost_Crazy said:

In reply to frenchyd :

If you are suggesting that it's hard to run a transit system, I'll agree with you.  
   I don't know of any that  are highly respected. They all cost too much and fail in many ways. 
    Depending on tax income for your primary source of revenue.  Means you cannot "win" 

    But the goal of transit systems isn't to make a profit, but to get low cost people to work.  People without cars.   

??? 
 

Okay then, I have a couple questions for you and anyone else who would defend a seemingly indefensible project like California's high speed rail. 
 

Is there a dollar amount in which you would say no? Is there minimum return in which you would say no (ridership, number of cars removed, etc.?) Or do you truly believe that any result justifies any investment? 

I see a lot of potential good. But I have no way of putting a dollar value on that.  
    But I also questioned America's space program.  I now understand it's real value.   It wasn't "beating " Russia  to the moon. Rather it was developing new technologies, new ways of solving problems.  Speeding up slowly developing things.   Increasing the value of scientific knowledge.   Inspiring   Young people to reach beyond their grasp.  Most of all not to give up.  How many rockets exploded  or failed before they finally got one to work?  
            
    The mundane benefits are affordable homes, reduced road traffic,  cleaner air,  a little tourism. 
   See,   I told you I have limited foresight. 
     The one thing I do know is if California gives up.   Then the nation will give up on California. 
   Right now Japan is negotiating a deal to have something similar done there. Apparently they don't see it as a failure.   
     
 

Boost_Crazy
Boost_Crazy Dork
5/17/23 7:06 p.m.

In reply to frenchyd :

I see a lot of potential good. But I have no way of putting a dollar value on that.  
    But I also questioned America's space program.  I now understand it's real value.   It wasn't "beating " Russia  to the moon. Rather it was developing new technologies, new ways of solving problems.  Speeding up slowly developing things.   Increasing the value of scientific knowledge.   Inspiring   Young people to reach beyond their grasp.  Most of all not to give up.  How many rockets exploded  or failed before they finally got one to work?  
           

To clarify, your answer is "no," there is no price in which you would reject a project if there is some good? Partly because you are worried that even if you don't see a benefit, you have FOMO on benefits that might be there? And why do people keep comparing old ideas and technology with the space program? Should we spend billions of dollars looking for another cure for Polio while we are at it? 
 

The mundane benefits are affordable homes, reduced road traffic,  cleaner air,  a little tourism. 
   See,   I told you I have limited foresight. 
     The one thing I do know is if California gives up.   Then the nation will give up on California. 
   Right now Japan is negotiating a deal to have something similar done there. Apparently they don't see it as a failure.   
 

Show me how you linked those results to this project. When? Where? How much benefit? The best guess for the first section of track to be operational is a decade away, linking small agricultural towns in the Central Valley. Where housing is already the cheapest in CA. Where traffic is light. And there is no way that enough people will use it between Merced and Bakersfield to offset the environmental cost of building it, ever. LA and SF need to be involved for any hope of that penciling out, which is decades away if at all. So Japan is building a slower version of one of their bullet trains to connect their rural farming villages to each other for 5X their budget? Are you sure about that? 

Boost_Crazy
Boost_Crazy Dork
5/17/23 8:51 p.m.

71 years.

 

In case anyone was wondering, it's estimated that it would take 71 years for the CO2 savings from the high speed rail project to offset construction emissions. Of course, many of those components don't have a 71 year life, so that much of that clock resets every 40 years or so. And while I don't think EV's are replacing ICE any time soon, 70 years is not soon. Plus most of those emissions are front loaded while the savings are spread out over time.
 

High‐​speed rail construction also releases a huge amount of greenhouse gases, particularly for concrete ties, steel rails, and other construction materials. One study predicted that building California’s 520‐​mile line would release 9.7 million metric tons of greenhouse gases, or 18,650 tons per mile. Assuming that California’s high‐​speed trains would fill, on average, 50 percent of their seats, the study estimated that operating those trains would reduce greenhouse gases but that it would take 71 years to repay the construction cost.40 Since rails, concrete ties, and other infrastructure must be replaced or rebuilt every 30–40 years—and even more frequently on lines with frequent train service—and since such replacements would require the release of more greenhouse gases, the savings would never make up for the cost.

 

Link to UC Berkeley Study
 

Opti
Opti SuperDork
5/17/23 10:14 p.m.

In reply to Boost_Crazy :

Color me surprised. This is pretty similar results to what you see from much of the current "green" movement.

They fail to understand that doing something that's expensive and invasive or impossible and only makes a tiny difference (if one at all) isn't actually helping the situation. It's how the national conversation is centered around things like powering mandated EVs with coal, walkable cities, 80% of the world population biking, banning gas appliances, and giving up meat and instead shipping avocados around the world with gasoline, diesel and kerosene. The vast majority of its bullE36 M3, but as you've pointed out as long as you are doing "something" no price is too high. If you say the price is too high, or their is no benefit to doing something or even advocate for more reasonable things or effective things they straw man your point and say "you don't want to do ANYTHING" or say you can't say something is a bad idea unless you have a better solution. No guys some ideas are just bad ideas and not doing them is okay.

 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/18/23 10:13 a.m.

In reply to Boost_Crazy :

What about the trade offs?   How much does a freeway full of bumper to bumper cars cause?   
  Plus personal grief.  I personally don't like sitting in bumper to bumper traffic.   So if some of that traffic had an alternate way of traveling?  What is that worth?   
    We are near 8 billion people on this earth.  When that number stops growing and goes the other direction  maybe it would be time to recalculate.  
       
       I understand your comments about 71 years to "pay" for the system.  
   Have you played football?   
     A good quarterback will try a whole variety of approaches to get to the end zone.  
  Dealing with NIMBY's. Environmentalists, bankers, lawyers, politicians, and just people.   Needs that sort of approach.  
     Don't try to be a carpenter. Just because you have a hammer not everything you see is a nail.  

Opti
Opti SuperDork
5/18/23 10:36 a.m.

In reply to frenchyd :

Frenchy I won't have you complaining about dealing with NIMBYs when your first paragraph boils down to you driving in traffic causes you "personal grief" and we should force OTHER people off the road so YOU don't have grief. That is the most NIMBY arguement I've ever heard.

Yall keep comparing spending billions of public money trying to "figure it out" to relatively low stakes things like a quarterback changing tactics. 

Try again 

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