I still don't see EV's Replacing ICEs.

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

So if the battery pack of a Tesla sells for $24,000  and each cell is $35  how long will it take to have someone   Spend that $24,000 and sell off $350,000 worth of cells?    It works out that 10,000 cells selling for $24,000 is $2.40 a cell.  So 70 dead cells??* Would cost you$168.  *. Not sure why you'd have 70 dead cells.  Numbers I've seen don't support anywhere near that failure rate. 
    As far as test equipment?   Check military surplus.  The military has been using stuff like that for a very long time.  

I just got back from the keys and my first Tesla experience. Rented a model 3 for the week. It had its flaws but precisely none of them had anything to do with it being an EV. I supercharged a few times and spent $28 for >600 miles of use.  The power and method of delivery were amazing. The car was fun, fast, and planted. If I wasn't a cheap bastard I would consider one. If the place we'd rented had a charger - or even an outlet - we probably wouldn't have even needed the supercharger.
 

There was an awesome ice cream place across from the closest supercharger and by the time we walked over and got ice cream and walked back the car was fully charged. Im not exactly a hard sell as I already own a Volt but im convinced that EVs are at least most of the way to mainstream usable right now. More charging stations will close the gap to fully ready. Tesla has it all figured out on the charger front I hope the competitors catch up. My other option was a Polestar 2 and if the charging network had been better I would have tried that one. 

In reply to GameboyRMH :

Current cost to replace a battery pack on a Model S 100D is between 15k-20k retail.  It continues to trend lower.

GameboyRMH said:

Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) said:

Yup... typically 18650s or 21700s. I have watched several videos on the topic as a possible coach battery bank for my van/RV.   I have three in my pocket right now for my vape pen.  The problem is, a Tesla has between 7000 and 10,000 cells.  It takes very sophisticated equipment to test them, and if you get it wrong, you risk the lovely, fiery explosions you hear about.  Also, the 18650s used in EVs aren't your run of the mill vape battery that you can get for $4 each.  They are highly-specialized cells that cost about $35 each.  I'm not keen on buying the test equipment and finding out I have to replace 10% of the cells... which is 700 cells, or $24k... which is about the same as buying a complete new battery pack... but you can't buy them from Tesla, and the black market could land you in a lawsuit.

Trust me.  I WANT to make it work.  I would gladly add a big, fat 4ga 240v service on the outside of my house if I could make it work.

Seems like there's a mistake here, Teslas aren't driving around with $350,000+ in batteries on board...

They don't buy cells individually.  The individual price for the Samsung batteries when I (the end-user individual) buy retail is $35.  The bulk price when they buy millions at a time from a manufacturer is significantly lower.  I've seen them as cheap as $28, but it's been a while since I researched it.

Just like the price GM pays for a water pump isn't $120.  That's my price as an individual.  They probably pay $25 for the water pump when they're purchasing 60,000 to install them on the assembly line.  The $120 price that I pay is based on demand, distribution, profit, etc.

Chris_V said:

Some of you have problems with EVs because they are new cars and you can't buy new cars. It's not so much a problem with EVs, but in your own situation. No manufacturer makes a $3000 used car. NONE of them. Nothing to do with being EV or not. Hel,l you probably couldn't have afforded the car you have NOW when IT was new...

I grew up below the poverty line and traded in free cars. Now I'm on my 3rd EV. I can afford a $300 a month car payment and no gas bill (which pays for a lot of the car payment). I'm not rich, either.

Gas cars will be around for decades. Even if all manufacturing switched to JUST EVs tomorrow morning, it would take decades to replace even half the gas cars and light trucks in the US overall fleet. So you have time for today's EVs to come down to the same price point your beaters are already at.

All of this.  I will be the first to buy one when there are examples of reliable, serviceable used examples in the $4000 range. (based entirely on my current paradigm)  This is why my last DD was a 1994 and my current DD is a 2006.  If that trend continues (where I'm 15-20 years behind new), it might be 2035 until I own an EV

frenchyd said:

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

So if the battery pack of a Tesla sells for $24,000  and each cell is $35  how long will it take to have someone   Spend that $24,000 and sell off $350,000 worth of cells?    It works out that 10,000 cells selling for $24,000 is $2.40 a cell.  So 70 dead cells??* Would cost you$168.  *. Not sure why you'd have 70 dead cells.  Numbers I've seen don't support anywhere near that failure rate. 
    As far as test equipment?   Check military surplus.  The military has been using stuff like that for a very long time.  

First, there is no aftermarket for a $35 18650.  They're a specialized cell made specifically for manufacturers.  If you need a screwdriver, do you contract an engineering firm to manufacture a one-off screwdriver specific to your needs for $100k, or do you go to HF and buy a $2 phillips?  There are millions of 18650s on the market that suit the average user for $3.

Second... this IS a thing.  People are scrambling to buy used EV packs, pallets of used laptop batteries, and used cordless power tool batteries so they can scavenge the 18650s for a profit selling them individually.  There is literally an entire underground of grassroots salvage operations trying to make a supply stream of used EV parts, and Tesla is suing them back to the stone age.

Third, you can't just stroll into a Tesla dealer and by a $24k battery pack.  It's hard to even get one if you have a Tesla that needs one.  They have gone to litigatory means to protect their ability to NOT sell battery packs.

Not sure why this is so complex to understand.  Wholesale/bulk vs Retail/small quantity.  Since when has it been the same exact price if you're buying a quantity of 7 instead of 10,000?

And we're still talking about 6 times more for THE PART TO FIX IT than I can afford to spend on the entire car itself.  I feel like I'm saying "I spend $4000 on my average DD," and you're saying "just buy a $12k used car and spend $24k to fix it.  Seee?  They're so affordable!"

Back to the topic:
1- Yay EVs
2- I want one
3- It will be a while til I have one because of my personal choices in car ownership

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

Your reasons are one of big factors as to why I don't think EVs are going to ever get above 35-40% if that.

Mandating  EVs will have a significant impact on state revenues via dwindling gas tax. So I expect EV owners will be subject to some sort of road use tax to the tune of $500-$1000 or more annually. Said tax will likely be lumped in with your registration renewal.  

There are a lot of people doing just fine economically but paying $1200-$2000 to renew the tags on their car would be an issue.

Tom1200 said:

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

Your reasons are one of big factors as to why I don't think EVs are going to ever get above 35-40% if that.

Mandating  EVs will have a significant impact on state revenues via dwindling gas tax. So I expect EV owners will be subject to some sort of road use tax to the tune of $500-$1000 or more annually. Said tax will likely be lumped in with your registration renewal.  

There are a lot of people doing just fine economically but paying $1200-$2000 to renew the tags on their car would be an issue.

PA is already greasing those wheels.  They're coming up with an alternative registration tax in place of a gas tax.

Tom1200 said:

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

Your reasons are one of big factors as to why I don't think EVs are going to ever get above 35-40% if that.

Mandating  EVs will have a significant impact on state revenues via dwindling gas tax. So I expect EV owners will be subject to some sort of road use tax to the tune of $500-$1000 or more annually. Said tax will likely be lumped in with your registration renewal.  

There are a lot of people doing just fine economically but paying $1200-$2000 to renew the tags on their car would be an issue.

His reasons are basically "new cars are expensive." New cars are all expensive, and gas powered cars are no exception.

Ohio already has the EV surcharge on registration and it's $200/year. That's way more than I pay in state gas taxes on any of my other cars, even the 10mpg truck. So at $200/year it's already punitive so they should expect lawsuits if they try crap like $1200-$2000.

dculberson said:

His reasons are basically "new cars are expensive." New cars are all expensive, and gas powered cars are no exception.

Ohio already has the EV surcharge on registration and it's $200/year. That's way more than I pay in state gas taxes on any of my other cars, even the 10mpg truck. So at $200/year it's already punitive so they should expect lawsuits if they try crap like $1200-$2000.

Again totally my opinion but when states lose 20-30% of their revenues they can't just cut back so like any large corporation would they will pass that cost on to you. As with all things it will creep up incrementally. 

dculberson said:

Tom1200 said:

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

Your reasons are one of big factors as to why I don't think EVs are going to ever get above 35-40% if that.

Mandating  EVs will have a significant impact on state revenues via dwindling gas tax. So I expect EV owners will be subject to some sort of road use tax to the tune of $500-$1000 or more annually. Said tax will likely be lumped in with your registration renewal.  

There are a lot of people doing just fine economically but paying $1200-$2000 to renew the tags on their car would be an issue.

His reasons are basically "new cars are expensive." New cars are all expensive, and gas powered cars are no exception.

Ohio already has the EV surcharge on registration and it's $200/year. That's way more than I pay in state gas taxes on any of my other cars, even the 10mpg truck. So at $200/year it's already punitive so they should expect lawsuits if they try crap like $1200-$2000.

Correct. Do a bit of looking about before you make claims like this. SC also has a tax on my registration to make up for not purchasing gasoline. It isn't even new. I think it was around $100.

dculberson said:

Tom1200 said:

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

Your reasons are one of big factors as to why I don't think EVs are going to ever get above 35-40% if that.

His reasons are basically "new cars are expensive." New cars are all expensive, and gas powered cars are no exception.

That is a much more concise way of putting it.  All new cars are expensive.  I tend to spend $4000 on a used car, and since EVs are relatively new, it will be a while until I choose to afford one.

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

Right, and I'm not that far from your car purchase threshold; our most expensive car is the family van and that was $12k and I felt nearly sick spending it. That's closer to $4k than it is to $60k - or even $30k. New cars are so ridiculously expensive that there's no way gas savings can pay for it, but if you're comparing new to new the EVs are not really much more than ICEs.

Iowa also hit me with a registration tax for my Tesla. I don't remember what it cost.

You don't need complicated E36 M3 to test the internal resistance of a battery pack in a Tesla. If you have a cell in front of you, it's the same as checking resistance with a multimeter like anything else- there's other specialty tools you can buy, but deep fans will tell you how to build a special internal resistance tester that'll give you more details. If you have a full Tesla tho, just slam it into maintenance mode and it'll tell ya.

Also there's no way I woulda bought mine had I not gotten extremely lucky. Like I won't lie, the gas savings on mine are pretty damn substantial, but even used my model 3 was nearly $40K including title and registration in my state and I only got THAT money due to a lot of serendipity and an insurance agency who valued my EVO to holy hell.

I'm just trying to find a back door way to get you what you want .   I'll keep looking.  But it's always your  choice.    

 I didn't know about Tesla trying to monopolize  the battery market.  Is it just them using legal talent to intimidate or does Musk own  all those batteries somehow?  

   The one thing I've learned in my life is a lot of the people who try to control or dominate  don't have a legal leg to stand on.   Orville and Wilber Wright  tried to "own" airplanes .  Oops courts said no.     Car manufacturers tried to "own" cars.  Oops they lost.  Etc.  
   Navy flight instructors tried to wash me out of flight school since I didn't go to Annapolis.   Oops I got my wings.  
     
   My city said I had to have an architect design my house,  oops they lost. It is in the UBC when I built and it's actually in its replacement.

     The planning commission told me I'd never get a permit. Oops they lost.  And they lost again when they tried a different tact.    
 Yes it's a pain but if you don't stand up for yourself you let them get away with it and encourage them to do things outside their real authority. 
      

How often are batteries going bad? We have a few very old hybrids in my office, first gen Escapes, original Camry and Highlander hybrids. all well over 100,000 miles and poorly maintained.  One out of nine has been in the shop for a battery issue.   They've been a very small percentage of repairs on our hybrid buses over the last 15 years, and in four years we've been running them our electric buses haven't had battery issues.  The same can't be said of the engines, transmissions, and especially  emissions systems of our diesels. 

frenchyd said:

I'm just trying to find a back door way to get you what you want .   I'll keep looking.  But it's always your  choice.    

 I didn't know about Tesla trying to monopolize  the battery market.  Is it just them using legal talent to intimidate or does Musk own  all those batteries somehow?  

   The one thing I've learned in my life is a lot of the people who try to control or dominate  don't have a legal leg to stand on.   Orville and Wilber Wright  tried to "own" airplanes .  Oops courts said no.     Car manufacturers tried to "own" cars.  Oops they lost.  Etc.  
   Navy flight instructors tried to wash me out of flight school since I didn't go to Annapolis.   Oops I got my wings.  
     
   My city said I had to have an architect design my house,  oops they lost. It is in the UBC when I built and it's actually in its replacement.

     The planning commission told me I'd never get a permit. Oops they lost.  And they lost again when they tried a different tact.    
 Yes it's a pain but if you don't stand up for yourself you let them get away with it and encourage them to do things outside their real authority. 
      

I think you're on the right track.  The issue basically boils down to the "right to repair" laws.  Apple, Tesla, and other big guns are trying to legally prevent an open market for their parts and software, and going as far as to hold intellectual patents on things so that the aftermarket can't reproduce them.  Apple initially tried to prevent the aftermarket from engineering their own lightning cables, which failed miserably.  Apple said it was copyrighted proprietary intellect.  The courts said, "it's a berkeleying $2 charging cord, get over it."

There was a documentary about the Tesla part.  Basically, Tesla wanted $24k for a new battery, but they didn't have any.  They were only producing battery packs for production line, so if your battery died, you might wait 6-9 months for a replacement.  People started turning to the aftermarket and buying $8000 battery packs from low-mileage wrecks.  Tesla sued the pants off them.

Wally (Forum Supporter) said:

How often are batteries going bad? We have a few very old hybrids in my office, first gen Escapes, original Camry and Highlander hybrids. all well over 100,000 miles and poorly maintained.  One out of nine has been in the shop for a battery issue.   They've been a very small percentage of repairs on our hybrid buses over the last 15 years, and in four years we've been running them our electric buses haven't had battery issues.  The same can't be said of the engines, transmissions, and especially  emissions systems of our diesels. 

I'm really going to rephrase things from this page from Battery University. PRODUCE THE CHART

What the berk is this. Basically, lithium-ion cells are ranked/rated by "cycle life", which is a single full drain then recharge- typically 4.2 volts to 2.8. A common consumer grade cell for something like a vape pen (which frequently see that constant heavy use) have a lifespan of about 1200-ish, maybe 2000 full draws. If you consider a single cell to be your "entire battery" for the purpose of this discussion, that's a full "tank" being expended then recharged about 2,000 times.

Except that's a common consumer cell that yeeted into a cancer stick, not an OEM grade part for a car with a warranty. All EVs NEVER charge to "true" full- the absolute max a Tesla will charge individual cells is about 4-4.1 Volts each, both for longevity AND for safety. If you look at the website that promptly doubles your uses from 1 to 2,000 alone; but Teslas also tell you, to charge even LESS than their "100%" for longevity AND to charge slower at home for the same reason. Finally, you're rarely ever doing a constant depletion, you're using 20-30% on days just dicking around doing your usual.

What does all that E36 M3 mean? If every day you spent 30% of your lithium batteries power doing stuff- day in, day out- and never brought it to full, you'd have a functional battery for over 6,000+ days, or over 16 years. Of course this doesn't get into temperature controls or use cases, but many hybrids are never fully using the battery at any point and thus, have nickel-metal cells in priuses lasting 15-20 years with no issue. Considering that a full-cycle on the smallest tesla battery anymore is over 250+ miles of driving, you'd have to be a very specific group of people who would ever potentially burn one out from constant drain alone.

EDIT: This also doesn't get into wether the battery is specifically designed for longevity or not, AND only for lithium-ion. For Lithium Iron Phosphates, you'd double the lifespan.

That's great information  to know.   I think what I learned from this is that as I age and my use goes down the life of the battery will extend?  
       Here is my fear. The car while charged every time I use it won't be used very much towards the end of my life.  To have the battery die before I do would put another nail in my coffin.
  My actuarial chart says I have 14 years left.  I feel really good and it's possible that I'll outlive the charts prediction.       My Grandmother lived to 92. If I have enough of her genes in me  and I live that long.  I'll exceed the projected 20 year life of the battery.   
   I'd like to hand it off to someone with life left in it.  

frenchyd said:

That's great information  to know.   I think what I learned from this is that as I age and my use goes down the life of the battery will extend? 

Pretty much, so long as you don't charge to full.

Chris_V said:

GameboyRMH said:

Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) said:

Yup... typically 18650s or 21700s. I have watched several videos on the topic as a possible coach battery bank for my van/RV.   I have three in my pocket right now for my vape pen.  The problem is, a Tesla has between 7000 and 10,000 cells.  It takes very sophisticated equipment to test them, and if you get it wrong, you risk the lovely, fiery explosions you hear about.  Also, the 18650s used in EVs aren't your run of the mill vape battery that you can get for $4 each.  They are highly-specialized cells that cost about $35 each.  I'm not keen on buying the test equipment and finding out I have to replace 10% of the cells... which is 700 cells, or $24k... which is about the same as buying a complete new battery pack... but you can't buy them from Tesla, and the black market could land you in a lawsuit.

Trust me.  I WANT to make it work.  I would gladly add a big, fat 4ga 240v service on the outside of my house if I could make it work.

Seems like there's a mistake here, Teslas aren't driving around with $350,000+ in batteries on board...

Yeah, the math doesn't math. Hell, a NEW replacement battery for my Bolt is only $13k, which is why they can sell the cars at $25k new and turn a profit. By the time it needs one (say at 300-500k miles) a used one or a rebuilt one will be available much cheaper. https://www.gmpartsdirect.com/oem-parts/gm-high-voltage-battery-24042761

NEW wheels for many cars are $2500-3000.  So a battery pack costs only a little more than a set of wheels, by that metric.

People probably require more wheel replacements than battery pack replacements, too...

GIRTHQUAKE said:

Wally (Forum Supporter) said:

How often are batteries going bad? We have a few very old hybrids in my office, first gen Escapes, original Camry and Highlander hybrids. all well over 100,000 miles and poorly maintained.  One out of nine has been in the shop for a battery issue.   They've been a very small percentage of repairs on our hybrid buses over the last 15 years, and in four years we've been running them our electric buses haven't had battery issues.  The same can't be said of the engines, transmissions, and especially  emissions systems of our diesels. 

I'm really going to rephrase things from this page from Battery University. PRODUCE THE CHART

What the berk is this. Basically, lithium-ion cells are ranked/rated by "cycle life", which is a single full drain then recharge- typically 4.2 volts to 2.8. A common consumer grade cell for something like a vape pen (which frequently see that constant heavy use) have a lifespan of about 1200-ish, maybe 2000 full draws. If you consider a single cell to be your "entire battery" for the purpose of this discussion, that's a full "tank" being expended then recharged about 2,000 times.

Except that's a common consumer cell that yeeted into a cancer stick, not an OEM grade part for a car with a warranty. All EVs NEVER charge to "true" full- the absolute max a Tesla will charge individual cells is about 4-4.1 Volts each, both for longevity AND for safety. If you look at the website that promptly doubles your uses from 1 to 2,000 alone; but Teslas also tell you, to charge even LESS than their "100%" for longevity AND to charge slower at home for the same reason. Finally, you're rarely ever doing a constant depletion, you're using 20-30% on days just dicking around doing your usual.

What does all that E36 M3 mean? If every day you spent 30% of your lithium batteries power doing stuff- day in, day out- and never brought it to full, you'd have a functional battery for over 6,000+ days, or over 16 years. Of course this doesn't get into temperature controls or use cases, but many hybrids are never fully using the battery at any point and thus, have nickel-metal cells in priuses lasting 15-20 years with no issue. Considering that a full-cycle on the smallest tesla battery anymore is over 250+ miles of driving, you'd have to be a very specific group of people who would ever potentially burn one out from constant drain alone.

EDIT: This also doesn't get into wether the battery is specifically designed for longevity or not, AND only for lithium-ion. For Lithium Iron Phosphates, you'd double the lifespan.

I haven't used any of the car chargers but the system they installed for our buses is incredibly well thought out. It monitors the packs, charges at different rates depending in how many buses are plugged in and what their charge levels are, and all the buses communicate through an app so the people running the program can monitor every function on the all the buses from their phones. I was skeptical when the program began but it's been very impressive. Environmental benefits aside they're better suited for city use in about 80% of the situations out there and will only improve as time goes on. 

frenchyd said:

Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to frenchyd :

I could, but certainly not now.  A totaled Tesla at an insurance auction is still bringing more than half it's retail value.  The fact that this one is being photographed with the window down in the pouring rain and they list the ODO at zero (not actual) means that this one most certainly has suffered a catastrophic electrical failure... and it still has an asking price of over $12k until you add taxes, title fee, and auction fees.  I'm not in a place to spend my entire savings on a car that might need $20,000 worth of unobtanium parts just to get it to function.

Folks are also kind of missing the fact that Tesla is really the only EV in the game for long enough that there might be used stuff out there.  There are plenty of $70,000=100,000 new mainstream EVs that have been sold, but only in the last couple years, so they're still $50-80k... if they're for sale at all.  When you have 4% of the NEW market being EV, imagine how tiny the slice is of the used market.

I'm the same with houses (although I prefer smaller spaces).  But you can look at a house, analyze the faults you see, then assume that there is all the additional damage behind the plaster and budget accordingly.  In almost every situation, you come out on top with real estate because it doesn't really depreciate.  With cars.... that's apples and oranges.  If I bought that Tesla (or one like it), I'm potentially $22k out of pocket - which I don't have - for an R-title used car.  I have that opportunity for $1500 with an ICE three times a day on FBM.

Fair enough but•••••• ( discuss later) 

  Want to start a whole lot cheaper?   Look at Chevy  Volt/ Bolt.  When I last looked at them, pre-pandemic. They were down to  $12,000 in undamaged nice running condition.    (60,000 miles) 

    Before you give up on EV's do some research watch someone do the battery pack on a Tesla.   I haven't seen anyone do  Chevy Bolt/ Volt yet but •••••• 

 

 

A gent named Bill Carlson is converting a DeLorean to EV using a Chevy Bolt donor car. He does a good job talking about safety compared to many other video builders. He also shows a Bolt battery pack disassembled substantially. 

I replaced the battery (actually swapped cells, leaving original electronics in the pack intact) on a Volt and it really wasn't hard. Time consuming, but not even as much work or time as say swapping a transmission.