Shortage of Auto Mechanics over the Next 5 Years

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/27/automobiles/wheels/automobile-repair-jobs.html?_r=0

Interesting read. I know a lot on this board are in technical and engineering jobs but it is interesting how the growth of enrollment in full 4 year colleges has declined the number and perception of skilled jobs.

I like what Fiat is doing (can't believe I'm saying that lol) and BMW as well. I sometimes wish "shop class" and other such programs would have been more readily available when I was in high school to get me interested in technical careers back then.

I did vocational auto tech training in HS. My two takeaways was it takes more than being able to swing a wrench to be a tech, and I was absolutely burned out on cars, at a professional level by the time I finished.

What I have always found interesting is that the majority of mechanics that I have met are not, and never have been, what you would call a "Car Guy". Just Joes who figured they had to pick a path and follow it to a job that would pay the bills; "It was this or plumbing or electrician or carpenter, did not matter to me"

With more and more of the mechanic work being done by retail dealerships, and the nature of retail that dictates rich clients and impoverished workers, I can see where the appeal of wrench turning might be dying.

More people may be getting a 4 year degree, but I don't see the results for more engineers.

But we've seen a decline in techs for the better part of the last decade.

Like so many jobs, I think its a mismatch between pay and expectations. The article cited a $100k+ salary for a master mechanic, but i know several that are only pushing $50-60k, with large outlays for tools and equipment, with so-so benefits (health ins., 401k), and years of experience. If you want to hire an expert to work in your place of business, don't be surprised if they expect expert wages.

If its something the dealers really need, they will eventually have to pay for it.

I love working on cars. I have no desire to be paid to work on cars.

I learned a long time ago that I'm not the type to do a hobby for a living. Easy fort me to say berk it and walk away from my project for a bit. Can't do that with a customer.

mazdeuce wrote: I love working on cars. I have no desire to be paid to work on cars.

Same here. There are certain things I enjoy (screwing with cars, photography) that I'd never want to do for a living because I'd end up tired of it and hating it. It's the kind of stuff I can do when I'm in the mood for it, but some days, I just want nothing to do with it.

mazdeuce wrote: I love working on cars. I have no desire to be paid to work on cars.

Heck, I don't even enjoy working on cars anymore. I do it because I know how and because I'm too cheap to pay someone to do something I'm capable of doing myself.

Which begs the question, why do I keep buying projects......

Tom_Spangler wrote: ... I do it because I know how and because I'm too cheap to pay someone to do something I'm capable of doing myself. Which begs the question, why do I keep buying projects......

This is why I hang out here, it's a group of people that understand this unique sickness that plagues many of us....

Normally a shortage involves demand exceeding supply, causing prices to rise.

So where are the double-digit-percent pay increases for mechanics and welders?

mazdeuce wrote: I love working on cars. I have no desire to be paid to work on cars.

this!

My alma mater just had a talk about this same situation with A&Ps and pilots.

My point to them, although they hated hearing it from me, was that the point of entry into the industry, salary-wise, is too low for the cost of education. Since I can speak directly to it as an A&P I was making about 15 dollars an hour after 16 months of training (nevermind the bachelor's degree which typically wouldn't play into salary) working for an MRO facility.

That's considered good in that industry. The theory was that you could work there until you were picked up by one of the majors after you gained enough experience in 5 to 8 years. Then you'd be making low 20s an hour working for the majors union and your salary cap increases to the 100k area in the next 20 years.

Now mind you that your cost of education at my school for an A&P would be somewhere in the neighborhood of about $20k for the certification. Then you have to move, buy tools, pay off your loans and somehow still have money left to live and eat. So you're looking at a real struggle to get by with a skillset only suited to do one thing.

Yea you CAN make 100k a year as an A&P after spending 20 years in the industry. Or you could go work in a field that provides a better salary entry point. I think that's information anyone who does any research into their prospective career should have access to rather than obfuscating the facts as many advisors do.

Pilots were even worse. Most of my peers were coming out 120 to 150k in debt making 35k a year sitting right seat at a regional in hopes that they could move into the 50k a year range for a major after 4 to 5 years. Those 200k a year pilot jobs? Yea after 25 years or so.

I got lucky that I went to work for an aerospace defense contractor making better than 4x what I did at the MRO facility. That came with a bunch of downsides (Afghanistan for 4.5 years total time of my 6 years there) but a bunch of upsides too like actually being able to afford a house by the time I was 30, pay off my education that got me there and obtain a graduate degree.

Realistically though if I had not been afforded that opportunity my life would be a whole lot different.

That same argument is made all the time about plumbers and electricians. "They make $80k with no degree!". Some do. They're mostly older. New hires aren't close to that. You spend a long time laying pipe at close to service wages before you approach $80k.

To echo many of these sentiment, I was encouraged to follow a mechanic's path in high school by some of my family and peers secondary to my love of all things mechanical and automotive. I think even at the age of 16 I was able to figure out that that interest would quickly be squelched by needing to do it for a living, rather than just turning wrenches on stuff I liked when I felt like it. Talking to some of my friends who followed passion careers (musicians, artists, writers), they have also found that needing to do something to pay the bills often means taking jobs you don't like.

The advice I give to students now is that they should find out what aspect of a particular job that they like to do and figure out how to do that. Is it working with your hands? Coming up with new ideas? Public speaking? I've found this a much more constructive conversation.

In reply to The0retical: This x 1000. My son went to UTI back when he wanted to be a tech with dreams of working for a pro NHRA team. Just tuition and fees for his program was 30K, and at the end of it he's discovered he really doesn't like working on cars (which is another story entirely). As you said, 15 dollars an hour is considered good entry level pay, but he's got 30+K worth of student loan debt to pay off, has to outlay for his own tools which puts him in debt to the tool truck. It will be years until he gets to 50-100K annual salary if he decides to stick with it, which he won't because it's not what he thought it would be (again, another story entirely). IMO if one was to enter that career path the best way is through a community college training program or employer paid training (BMW does have a good program) and NOT through Wyotech or UTI, you get at least the same training for much less outlay.

Most dealers want kids straight out of trade school. Besides being able to mold them from the start, they can pay crap wages because they are young. So they walk out of tech school in major debt between the schooling and the tooltruck(s).

I've yet to meet the $100K tech. I've heard of them, just never seen them. I'm near the top of the pay scale and pretty short of six figures, and I've been doing it for 20+ years. Most of the techs in the industry make at least $20k less than me. I don't know how they do it, especially if they still have tooltruck debt.

Shop owners only appreciate you when you give your 2 weeks notice and/or they start interviewing the few people left in the industry for your replacement.

Almost everybody that's smart enough to be a good tech is smart enough to stay out of the industry.

Edit-Yes, definitely go the community college route instead of UTI, etc. Assuming you can find a JC that has an automotive program. Almost zero debt for just as good, if not better education.

Kobayashi Maru. I'm 56, I've had my journeymans papers since 1985, have worked flat rate basically all my career, since I was a flat rate tech, and then have run my own shop for 30 years.

This trade has never needed grease monkeys. It needs well read, intelligent people. To get intelligent people, you need to pay them. To pay them, you need to charge the end user more money, which will probably make him buy cars under warranty, so the tech now has to do jobs with an unreasonably low time allowance.

I've got sore knuckles, I'm under seven different levels of stress every day, and I have a toolbox with a hundred grand worth of tools in it. I pay almost a thousand bucks a month for service information, and a bunch more to keep scanners up to date.

Most years, I end up with a bit less hair, and a wee bit on the high side of $100k. Last year, with oil prices tanking and a warm winter, I was the lowest paid guy in the shop by at least $25k.

I see hard times coming, because there really isn't a good reason for a blue collar type of guy to go into this trade. A refrigeration and heating guy makes more money, and other than weather conditions, its simpler and easier. A plumber, electrician or carpenter makes good dough, although those jobs can be affected by the economy worse than wrenching.

I have no solutions.

Become a millwright.

Same job, only no customer service, no rust, and no salty water dripping in your eyes in winter. We're the same age. I started doing what you're doing in the late 70's because I loved working on cars, but hated doing it for a living by the early 80's got lucky, and worked my way in to a Millwright apprenticeship, then became a machinist in my spare time. Steady, very good pay, and it sure beats working on cars.

Ditch flat rate and things will improve. That and stop touting the benefits of a 4-year degree (in anything) while slamming skilled trade workers.

DrBoost wrote: Ditch flat rate and things will improve.

Maybe. Flat rate as a payment method for a diagnostician is pretty much impossible. For a line tech, it can, for the right person, be wonderful. The pressure and potential benefits can also turn good techs into hacks. My first real job, another tech and I went on flat rate same day. I made more money, and my comeback rate didn't change. The other guy was fired in six months.

From the customer standpoint, flat rate is pretty much the only way to go. Lets say that you bring your vehicle to me for suspension work. I'm big, strong, and skilled. It takes me 2 hours to do what the book says should take 4. However, if the pencil necked geek in the bay next to me gets the job, it may take him 6 hours. Do you want to pay three times as much to have the job done by a hack? Is my wage three times that of the pencil necked geek? if its under warranty, how much does Ford pay?

I'm not saying you are wrong, but flat rate is not the evil thing that many people think it is. If its used properly, everybody wins. Used wrong, nobody is happy.

DrBoost wrote: That and stop touting the benefits of a 4-year degree (in anything) while slamming skilled trade workers.

You've been listening to Mike Rowe again, haven't you?

alfadriver wrote: More people may be getting a 4 year degree, but I don't see the results for more engineers.

I've never worked for an automotive company, so grain of salt with this, but I find working on cars myself or spending time around techs in repair shops where I worked sales to be nothing like engineering. I doubt a student considering one would really think about doing the other instead.

I keep up a bunch of beautiful Restored Late 60's Early 70's Muscle cars sounds great dosn't it. the people that own them only want to pay late 60's early 70's wages, My grandson is a Celltower Climber and makes 4 times what I do. My younger brother (5 years) works at Delta airlines and makes 3 times as much.

chaparral wrote: Normally a shortage involves demand exceeding supply, causing prices to rise. So where are the double-digit-percent pay increases for mechanics and welders?

I'm a certified weldor, and have professionally wrenched. It is an incredibly uncomfortable place to have the arthritis from both, and all employers seem to demand 60+ hour weeks. I mean, I can do 40, but I'm getting old.

Apologies for whining.

pres589 wrote:

alfadriver wrote: More people may be getting a 4 year degree, but I don't see the results for more engineers.

I've never worked for an automotive company, so grain of salt with this, but I find working on cars myself or spending time around techs in repair shops where I worked sales to be nothing like engineering. I doubt a student considering one would really think about doing the other instead.

My point was that the push toward more 4 year degrees isn't increasing the engineering pool, either.