Seriously.
New cars with known defective air bags, knowing they will be recalled.
One has the option of not selling cars or selling them with a known defect.
Seems like selling the cars is a better option.
alfadriver wrote: One has the option of not selling cars or selling them with a known defect. Seems like selling the cars is a better option.
There is of course option number 3: Get airbags from another supplier. Takata isn't the only airbag manufacturer.
From reading the article it seems that the situation could be spun as the airbags have a two year expiration date, and be replaced with lifetime units under warranty. (Assuming the underlying problem is actually solved by then 
)
STM317 wrote:alfadriver wrote: One has the option of not selling cars or selling them with a known defect. Seems like selling the cars is a better option.There is of course option number 3: Get airbags from another supplier. Takata isn't the only airbag manufacturer.
No, if that was an option, they would take it. The reality is that the other airbag manufacturer can not supply that many more airbags.
Why do people think that others live in a complete vacuum like that? The most obvious solution is overlooked?
So..... what happens if one of these pops and kills someone? "consumers may not be aware they are purchasing a vehicle that could contain a dangerous defect." there's nothing that says they've gotta disclose that?
Not trying to be obtuse. Just really curious. When all of this started, Takata reportedly had about 22% share of the airbag market. That number is dropping steadily, but is still probably hovering somewhere between 5-10%. Are all of the other manufacturers combined really incapable of making up the difference?
alfadriver wrote: No, if that was an option, they would take it. The reality is that the other airbag manufacturer can not supply that many more airbags.
There is not one single other manufacturer of airbags other than Takata, there are multiples.
Ammonium nitrate is not the only inflator, and it is not unable to be set up without desiccant. Even Takata has mastered those points.
STM317 wrote: Not trying to be obtuse. Just really curious. When all of this started, Takata reportedly had about 22% share of the airbag market. That number is dropping steadily, but is still probably hovering somewhere between 5-10%. Are all of the other manufacturers combined really incapable of making up the difference?
Given how things are made now, yes. Eventually that drop will make up for Takata, but it takes a lot of time to build manufacturing capability. Especially when all companies are running as lean as they can get away with.
Basically, all of Takata's plants would have to be re-made by the other companies- or at least 80-90% of them would.
foxtrapper wrote:alfadriver wrote: No, if that was an option, they would take it. The reality is that the other airbag manufacturer can not supply that many more airbags.There is not one single other manufacturer of airbags other than Takata, there are multiples. Ammonium nitrate is not the only inflator, and it is not unable to be set up without desiccant. Even Takata has mastered those points.
So you assume that every company out there is so dumb that they would not choose the most obvious solution and go to another supplier??? I don't get that.
If that's the case, every single car maker on that list should never be bought because they are dumber than rocks.
What other companies could make up has been done. And slowly, the rest will be taken up. But a complete replacement of Takata was not an option.
As an aside, I have intentionally disabled the steering wheel and passenger front airbags on every vehicle I have ever owned that had them...
alfadriver wrote:STM317 wrote: Not trying to be obtuse. Just really curious. When all of this started, Takata reportedly had about 22% share of the airbag market. That number is dropping steadily, but is still probably hovering somewhere between 5-10%. Are all of the other manufacturers combined really incapable of making up the difference?Given how things are made now, yes. Eventually that drop will make up for Takata, but it takes a lot of time to build manufacturing capability. Especially when all companies are running as lean as they can get away with.
I know it's the way things are done now, but if you're running so lean that several companies combined can't make up a 12-15% market increase without taking years to adjust, are they really "getting away with" it? Seems more like they're running too lean and got caught unprepared. I just hear about automotive supplier problems everyday, and so much of it stems from running to lean that small issues domino into big issues.
STM317 wrote:alfadriver wrote:I know it's the way things are done now, but if you're running so lean that several companies combined can't make up a 12-15% market increase without taking years to adjust, are they really "getting away with" it? Seems more like they're running too lean and got caught unprepared. I just hear about automotive supplier problems everyday, and so much of it stems from running to lean that small issues domino into big issues.STM317 wrote: Not trying to be obtuse. Just really curious. When all of this started, Takata reportedly had about 22% share of the airbag market. That number is dropping steadily, but is still probably hovering somewhere between 5-10%. Are all of the other manufacturers combined really incapable of making up the difference?Given how things are made now, yes. Eventually that drop will make up for Takata, but it takes a lot of time to build manufacturing capability. Especially when all companies are running as lean as they can get away with.
I've been in Manufacturing since right after college, 2007.
Yes, companies have to run INCREDIBLY lean to compete. And we still have to source many of the raw materials/castings and such from overseas to keep costs down.
And I'll leave it at that.
Making them? Maybe. Selling them? No. At least not where I work. I think we currently have more stock units on "stop sale" than available for sale. And the owner is hating this...
z31maniac wrote: I've been in Manufacturing since right after college, 2007. Yes, companies have to run INCREDIBLY lean to compete. And we still have to source many of the raw materials/castings and such from overseas to keep costs down. And I'll leave it at that.
I know everyone does it to stay competitive on price. It just seems to me that being so lean that you can't overcome small occurances (speaking about automotive suppliers in general here, not specifically the Takata situation) could be a competitive disadvantage too. Having adequate stock on hand to quickly replace a defective production batch, or pick up the slack if your competition has an issue, etc seems like it could be a sellable point to your customers and could help you gain market share more quickly if somebody stumbles. Just a general complaint about the way things are now. Get off my lawn!
alfadriver wrote: Why do people think that others live in a complete vacuum like that? The most obvious solution is overlooked?
Because it usually is.
In reply to Javelin:
Or is usually bureaucratically blocked. I'm not even going to pretend I know how the car airbag industry works, but I imagine there are contractual obligations with rather harsh penalties involved because that's just how things seem to be these days. It could be conceivably cheaper to do this, and hope for a better batch before the expiration date, than enter a new commitment with a new company, on top of still paying off Takata. I don't know this for fact, but I've seen it in other places, and it would make sense from a bean counters point of view.
I'm still a little surprised at what, 13 deaths from 30 million airbags is enough for a total recall? Seems like the rest of the industry, even the manufacturers themselves, get a lot more than that fraction of a percent before a recall is deemed financially the better option than private settlements. In all fairness, my experience with vehicle recall assessment is limited to Fight Club, waiting 3 years for chrysler to get parts in for my jeep, and a general thought that nothing is perfect and once in a while problems come up. I've also only been partially following this story, because none of my vehicles have airbags so it doesn't personally affect me, yet.
STM317 wrote:alfadriver wrote: One has the option of not selling cars or selling them with a known defect. Seems like selling the cars is a better option.There is of course option number 3: Get airbags from another supplier. Takata isn't the only airbag manufacturer.
There is a significant time delay to this proposition as well as the aforementioned logistical or cost related issues. Not a single airbag manufacturer on earth would be able to deliver airbags tomorrow if you handed them specs today (much less giant volumes of said airbags). So what do you do for the thousands of cars you expect to sell tomorrow?
BTW - in a much more general sense, let's all remember that the airbag is not the only way your car can kill you.
STM317 wrote:z31maniac wrote: I've been in Manufacturing since right after college, 2007. Yes, companies have to run INCREDIBLY lean to compete. And we still have to source many of the raw materials/castings and such from overseas to keep costs down. And I'll leave it at that.I know everyone does it to stay competitive on price. It just seems to me that being so lean that you can't overcome small occurances (speaking about automotive suppliers in general here, not specifically the Takata situation) could be a competitive disadvantage too. Having adequate stock on hand to quickly replace a defective production batch, or pick up the slack if your competition has an issue, etc seems like it could be a sellable point to your customers and could help you gain market share more quickly if somebody stumbles. Just a general complaint about the way things are now. Get off my lawn!
Stock takes space. Space = money. Stock costs money. So having enough stock to cover another company is not economically feasible.
Capability costs money. Having too much capability costs a lot of money.
So the idea that the sum of all other manufacturers can keep 25% more capability is incredibly unreasonable. That's ignoring the tiny problem that most airbag systems are specific to a particular car. So as a supplier to GM, I'm not going to bother making airbags for Toyota just to have them sitting around.
One other thing- the air bag issue- it's not JUST the sum of all new cars at this point- it's that PLUS the entire recall. That is a huge amount of required increase. And much of that is a transient blip.
This isn't just the automotive industry- this is ALL manufacturing of all goods.
In reply to revrico:
The defective design gets more dangerous, with a higher chance of lethal consequences, as it ages. That's why it's a 30 million unit recall.
Javelin wrote:alfadriver wrote: Why do people think that others live in a complete vacuum like that? The most obvious solution is overlooked?Because it usually is.
Come work in industry sometime. You always seem to know better.... They can use a mind as brilliant as yours.
Javelin wrote:alfadriver wrote: Why do people think that others live in a complete vacuum like that? The most obvious solution is overlooked?Because it usually is.
I also disagree with this. While sometimes people can be so tied into the details that they fail to see the simple solution, I think the most common explanation is usually the opposite. Casual observers don't know enough of the details and that is why they think the simple solution is being overlooked. They don't know enough to know why their 'solution' isn't really a solution. Plenty of examples right here in this thread.
the "lake Wobegon effect" is that most humans have a tendency to over-estimate their own capabilities, and has been proven in many arenas (i.e. the majority of drivers think they are above average). I believe this is tied to the fact that probably the majority of people think they are above average problem solvers/critical thinkers. And that is BEFORE you get into whether a casual observer is armed with the right detail knowledge or not.
Robbie wrote:Javelin wrote:I also disagree with this. While sometimes people can be so tied into the details that they fail to see the simple solution, I think the most common explanation is usually the opposite. Casual observers don't know enough of the details and that is why they think the simple solution is being overlooked. They don't know enough to know why their 'solution' isn't really a solution. Plenty of examples right here in this thread. the "lake Wobegon effect" is that most humans have a tendency to over-estimate their own capabilities, and has been proven in many arenas (i.e. the majority of drivers think they are above average). I believe this is tied to the fact that probably the majority of people think they are above average problem solvers/critical thinkers. And that is BEFORE you get into whether a casual observer is armed with the right detail knowledge or not.alfadriver wrote: Why do people think that others live in a complete vacuum like that? The most obvious solution is overlooked?Because it usually is.
Along that same thread tangent- so many people like to use the phrase "common sense" when it's normally so very wrong. Drives me crazy.
alfadriver wrote: One has the option of not selling cars or selling them with a known defect. Seems like selling the cars is a better option.
This bothers the E36 M3 out of me - notwithstanding my usual comment of what problem are we trying to solve, and at what cost, and as was pointed out above, 13 deaths on 30 million cars sold is small percentage wise, and seems to me would be small even given the number of air bag deployments in a given year. Etc, ad nauseam.
But you're the same guy who will say that everything needs to be regulated to the Nth degree to preserve our safety and health - recollections of the diesel particulate filters debate - no matter how much it costs.
Stupid question : I have received no recall notice on the daily drivers. Where do I get the information to see if mine are affected?
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