Truck shopping the next few months

Some of how it will get worse... 

Rental fleets canceling orders. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hertz-avis-cancel-orders-setback-162026663.html

I'm not sure dealers will be offering great deals on pickups for much longer, an article on Autoblog yesterday said that GM and Ram dealers are starting to worry that they'll run out of pickups if production doesn't get started again soon.  Chevy dealers have on average an 82 day supply versus 120 a year ago, Ram is at 114 vs 134, while Ford is at 111 vs 84 a year ago.

While car and crossover sales have really dropped, pickup sales haven't been nearly as bad.

Autoblog article

Maybe Covid hasn't hit pickup country as hard as EV/hybrid country.

[Hey, I'm not judging anyone or anyone here.  Just making a hypothesis.  We know sales vary by region.]

DWNSHFT said:

Maybe Covid hasn't hit pickup country as hard as EV/hybrid country.

 

[Hey, I'm not judging anyone or anyone here.  Just making a hypothesis.  We know sales vary by region.]

This kinda makes sense - before this, I was commuting to work. 40 miles roundtrip. I was considering getting something that got better MPG than my car. 

Since March 2nd (ish), I've driven my car about 20 miles total. It could be a Tesla, it could be a CRX-HF, it could be a Ramcharger or a Lambo or a 3/4 ton Cummins with a lift and bad tune, it doesn't matter - I'm not going to the gas station for another 3 months at this rate! And even if I was, gas prices are the lowest that I can remember since I've had to pay for gas (2006). 

Thanks for all the input on this, been very useful.  On a related note, today I had to rent a pickup to make some deliveries and pick up more material.  I asked for a 1500, all they had was a 2500 but it was only $5 more so that's what I got.  In some cruel twist of fate, what I got was a 2019 Ram 2500 Bighorn Crew Cab with an 8' bed and a Cummins.  I can't believe how frickin HUGE this thing is.  But, after putting about 100 miles on it today, I gotta say, I don't really love it.  Objectively, it does everything better than my old Cummins.  But I like mine better.  I like the 2019's lack of rust and its general newness, and I do like the 8' bed, but I really like mine better.  Which is a bit of a relief since this is like a $70k truck. 

I will say, I reset the trip odometer when i started and was alarmed to discover that the trip computer was estimating 25mpg over those 100 mi.  For a 8000 lb truck that seems insane.

That mileage doesn't seem surprising especially if it's a 2wd truck. But then again at the moment that's the cost equivalent of a gas truck doing 15mpg or so.

Loweguy5 (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to NorseDave :

I'm saying new vehicles will continue to be given away and may even decrease further.  That in turn will force used prices to go lower as well.  Both will present very strong options but my opinion is that it hasn't fully bottomed out yet.

The problem with waiting is supply. Dealers are running out of new trucks quickly with nothing to replace them with. Used trucks might actually go up in value. 

I bought a new Canyon last year, right at the end of April. The GM incentives were higher then than a month earlier. IIRC, I paid $35K on an "out the door" price of $44K.  Walking in near month end will net you the best deals and I have to wonder what the deals would have been like a month or two later. This year you may be able to do even better if the economy remains poor and large numbers of people are unemployed. Both dealers that I was talking to told me that 90% of their truck "sales" were actually leases. There might be a lot of lease turn-ins from people who can't turn around and lease a replacement vehicle due to the economy.