I have no doubt that battery technology will eventually bring the range of EVs up to what is required for long distance driving in the US. The problem for lots of us is that I have never been able to afford a new car and it seems to me that EVs are disposable vehicles after about 100,000 miles and the battery packs wear out and I need a vehicle that will last for up to 200,000-300,000 miles.
bobzilla said:red_stapler said:Driven5 said:technological limitations.
The pantograph and catenary wire was invented in like 1895. If we devised a standard, we could have electrified EV lanes for unlimited range on the interstates, and that would probably solve a good portion of the range issues.
I am sure this will work well south of the frost belt. But north of it? We can't keep roads together long enough.
Snow doesn't seem to bother this ancient tech too much:
In reply to VolvoHeretic :
Battery life is probably my biggest concern as well. EV batteries are lasting between 10 and 15 years. Buying a 10-year-old used car with 100-200K miles and having to drop between $4k and $20k in it for a battery would take a lot of the value out of a used car. I have to wonder what used EV prices are going to look like as more and more data comes in on battery life expectancy.
red_stapler said:bobzilla said:red_stapler said:Driven5 said:technological limitations.
The pantograph and catenary wire was invented in like 1895. If we devised a standard, we could have electrified EV lanes for unlimited range on the interstates, and that would probably solve a good portion of the range issues.
I am sure this will work well south of the frost belt. But north of it? We can't keep roads together long enough.
Snow doesn't seem to bother this ancient tech too much:
Thats not even close to the same thing is it? Lets TRY to be intellectually honest here. The tech being proposed is in lane (i.e. ground) charging either wireless or contact. frost heaves, pot holes, snow etc will impede this idea/plan. To make it work will require a leap forward in road construction that can build and maintain pavement for more than a few months.
I know we are trying to stick to the here and now, but Nio motors is coming to the US and are presently doing this in China.
A part of me thinks some development of this is the commercial/interstate towing solution.
In reply to Apexcarver :
I've thought swappable batteries (like a fork truck) would be a good option. Like swapping your propane tank for a full one.
didn't GM work on an interchangeable platform like that?
In reply to bobzilla :
Overhead seems like a better choice than inground for the reasons you give, but those systems are kind of a pain, with having to get out with a long stick to put the contact on the wire, and the eyesore of having wires everywhere. The thing that killed trolleys in NY was that they banned overhead wires because people were tired of looking at them everywhere.
bobzilla said:In reply to Apexcarver :
I've thought swappable batteries (like a fork truck) would be a good option. Like swapping your propane tank for a full one.
didn't GM work on an interchangeable platform like that?
It's the best idea in the world. And also the worst idea in the world.
Best:
Worst:
Electrified EV lanes and quick-change battery packs sound like great ideas at first blush, but are both fundamentally flawed to implement. Solid state batteries and/or some other battery breakthrough(s), combined with the continued high-speed charging infrastructure expansion, will render the point moot long before either could ever hope to achieve widespread use.
Driven5 said:Electrified EV lanes and quick-change battery packs sound like great ideas at first blush, but are both fundamentally flawed to implement. Solid state batteries and/or some other battery breakthrough(s), combined with the continued high-speed charging infrastructure expansion, will render the point moot long before either could ever hope to achieve widespread use.
For the most part, EVs built 10 years from now will make the ones they are making now obsolete and possibly even worthless. If Toyota is selling EVs with a 750 mile range like they are talking about with their new battery technology, who is going to want a 10 year old Tesla with an expensive worn out battery and a 200 mile range?
In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :
Except the average car on the road is 11 years old because new cars cost so much. So, the majority of people will be driving old worn-out cars with worn-out expensive batteries because that's what they can afford.
Which was kind of my point above. My preferred car is 10 years old with 100+k miles on it. I have my doubts that EVs will be worth buying at that age so what do you do then? Me? I'll probably be driving a 20-year-old ICE at that point because the cost of ownership will still be less than a $1000 car payment.
Toyman! said:In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :
Except the average car on the road is 11 years old because new cars cost so much. So, the majority of people will be driving old worn-out cars with worn-out expensive batteries because that's what they can afford.
Which was kind of my point above. My preferred car is 10 years old with 100+k miles on it. I have my doubts that EVs will be worth buying at that age.
How does that make it any different from a 10 year old gas powered Mercedes or BMW that costs more than twice as much to repair than it is worth? We have those around today. Nobody wants them. We have seen this before. Mercedes and BMW and the lease companies already made their money. They don't care that the cars go to the wrecking yard after 10 years. Neither will Tesla. It does kind of suck for people who buy used, but the companies that build them don't really care about that market.
New Cars and Cell Phones have way too much in common already. A lot of this just seems like planned obsolescence. Why would a car company make a pack that lasts 20 years, when they can make one cheaper and have it last 5 years, then sell you a new pack, and then just sell you a new car earlier because nobody wants to fork out cash for a new battery (again) in a 10 year old car?
Battery swaps will not likely ever happen due to insurance companies. While installed batteries protected by a car or installed on a wall are considered safe, they don't want anything to do with loose batteries subject to handling.
I'm also curious about how used EV's will be treated in the future. I think it depends on how much they advance. If there is not a battery breakthrough and future EV's are only incrementally better, I'd expect older ones to hold their value longer. If there are significant advancements, I'd expect it to be somewhat like we treat all electronics- the value and support will drop as older tech becomes obsolete.
I've thought about the air cooled 911 thread as compared to EV's. I predict that once transitioned to EV's, the practice of older cars (older EV's) becoming more valuable and sought after will end. New cars will just be better than old cars in every way, and EV's will be disposable once they have reached a certain age. But who knows, maybe some nostalgic early adopters will miss the thrill of trying to get home with their charge near zero and pay $50k for a gen 1 Leaf.
I remember reading on the news about 8 years after the Toyota Prius came out and they where hitting the used car market for unheard of discounted prices. Turned out that their batteries where at the end of their lifespan and the poor smucks who thought that they were getting a great deal suddenly had to buy new battery packs.
I want to look at an EV since my daily commute is roughly 100kms all highway, so something with about double that range would be fine (would be a winter daily) but would prefer AWD (rural and winter) but I am cheap and own other cars I'd rather drive during the summer, so big payments on something I am not utilizing isn't something I want to do.
But having a daily that would have 2 sets of tires (good winters / mediocre all weathers) and needs a cabin filter on occasion is very a attractive proposition. So I will be watching for future AWD options, and watching how Model 3 ER's depreciate over time and what battery degradation is like when it comes to range.
Toyman! said:In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :
Except the average car on the road is 11 years old because new cars cost so much. So, the majority of people will be driving old worn-out cars with worn-out expensive batteries because that's what they can afford.
Serious question: Is the fleet aging so much because the cost of new cars is so much higher, or is the cost of the car higher because they last longer?
Just to pick a single datapoint, in 1993 the base Toyota Corolla was $11,198 starting MSRP. In 2023, the starting MSRP is $21,700. If we apply inflation, that 1993 is $23,644.36 in today's dollars. I would argue that even if you brought a brand-new 1993 base Corolla into the future, the 2023 model would still be an objectively better car.
I know I'm just picking one car out of so many on the market, but it's a little hard to make a comparison of the aggregate when the types of vehicles that we're including in the "average new car price" number has changed so much. I'd like to see the data peeled back to reflect the average price of a new 2-row SUV, 3-row SUV, compact, mid-size, executive/luxury sedan, single-row pickup, and two-row pickup because I think that the number is skewed a bit because people aren't buying sedans, they're buying bigger vehicles and essentially upselling themselves. So the buyer that might have been after a Corolla in 1993 might be going for the Corolla Cross in 2023 because sedans are dumb and crossovers are cool or.. I don't know.. whatever. Oddly, though, that Corolla Cross MSRP starts at... $23,610 - or basically the same as the 1993 Corolla. And knowing that the vehicle is going to last longer, the buyer's going to be more willing to consider a 6 or 7 year note on it.
I'm curious to see how batteries go over time, though. We're going to have a bunch of worthless cars that start clawing back the average age of the fleet, we're going to see someone come out with a financially-attractive aftermarket battery or battery reconditioning service, or we may find that these batteries are better than we thought they'd be over time.
Boost_Crazy said:I've thought about the air cooled 911 thread as compared to EV's. I predict that once transitioned to EV's, the practice of older cars (older EV's) becoming more valuable and sought after will end. New cars will just be better than old cars in every way, and EV's will be disposable once they have reached a certain age. But who knows, maybe some nostalgic early adopters will miss the thrill of trying to get home with their charge near zero and pay $50k for a gen 1 Leaf.
I think there will always be a market for good looking cars, and truly groundbreaking cars. A Countache looks great no matter how it's powered, it's a poster car after all. Do you really think that will go away just because it has a battery?
In reply to wae :
I'm not sure what the type of vehicle has to do with the age or how long it's on the road. The fact is people are keeping cars longer, not that cars are lasting longer. I put 240k miles on a 1978 Chevy C10. I also put 240k on my 2007 Silverado. The 1978 was in as good a condition as the 2007 and actually needed fewer repairs over its life.
If the Ford Lightening doesn't last 10 years without a $15k battery then it's going to become a disposable vehicle long before my 1978 C10 or my 2007 Silverado. It will be like those MB and BMW that languish in junkyards because of some obscure electronic part. Which is kind of my case in point. Those are luxury cars getting scrapped by $3k-$5k control modules. What is a $15k battery replacement going to do to a truck or the average commuter car, or even a $5k battery? Are we going to have scrap yards full of EVs that aren't worth repairing? Isn't that kind of the opposite of what EVs are supposed to be doing which is creating less pollution and waste?
Time will tell.
My Porsche 914 is 48 years old. I still drive it and sometimes I even autocross it. I could use it as a daily driver if my insurance would allow it. I even upgraded it with a satellite radio and a GPS. There are guys in Cuba still using Chevrolets built in the 1950s as taxicabs. We are talking about 70 year old cars here. They drive them every single day. They keep them running because they have to. There is no affordable alternative.
If they jack up EV prices in this country and stop building gas powered cars hoping for big profits, guess what will happen here?
This isn't a perfect comparison, but I was just reading in one of the Prius threads about how the owner was rebuilding their battery pack for less than $100. Is there any reason to believe similar refurbishment techniques won't work for modern EVs when their batteries are older?
And part of this is just that parts for new cars are really expensive before the aftermarket/DIY community steps in.
A new BMW M4 engine costs $72,000 plus a $20,000 core charge. But I still see tons and tons of old BMWs at track days.
In reply to wae :
You addressed the price side vs inflation. You have to look at the income vs cost of living piece too. What you consider reasonably priced is unobtainable for many.
In reply to Tom Suddard :
The economics of scale will kick in eventually unless the battery and charge tech changes so fast that old designs are no longer supported. Tesla has a new cell design on the way now.
And the BMW example is why the BMWs head to the scrap heap. They aren't economical to repair.
A more realistic comparison would be the Altima or an F150. A 3.5 Altima engine is $1500. The F150 3.5 EB engine will set you back $4400. The M4 engine will set you back $15k on the used market. If you are repairing a 10+-year-old car for transportation which one will you repair? No one normal is going to realistically pay $72k for an engine and certainly not to repair a car to get to work in the morning.
The tons and tons of old BMWs at track days again make my point. They are pretty cheap to keep running. Unless battery prices come down to realistic engine prices there aren't going to be a lot of used EVs around. They will cost too much to repair and will end up in the scrap yard.
Yes, there will be some industrious fellows that start building and repairing batteries but even they aren't going to be cheap. The labor alone is going to be a bit of a swallow because many of these packs aren't designed to be repaired.
90% of the battery-powered products sold today use the same cells.
Looks like the 21700 cells are running about $6 per cell for a named brand cell. A Model 3 standard range uses 2976 of them. With a global shortage of lithium and people to build them, I don't see prices dropping any time soon.
It will be interesting to see how things unfold over the next 10 years. Changes will be coming.
Oh, if we're talking used parts, eBay is already full of used Tesla modules. I agree that EVs will be different to repair as they age, but I don't think they'll be significantly more expensive to keep running. If anything, I suspect they'll be easier due to the vastly lower part counts.
In reply to mr2peak :
Boost_Crazy said:I've thought about the air cooled 911 thread as compared to EV's. I predict that once transitioned to EV's, the practice of older cars (older EV's) becoming more valuable and sought after will end. New cars will just be better than old cars in every way, and EV's will be disposable once they have reached a certain age. But who knows, maybe some nostalgic early adopters will miss the thrill of trying to get home with their charge near zero and pay $50k for a gen 1 Leaf.
I think there will always be a market for good looking cars, and truly groundbreaking cars. A Countache looks great no matter how it's powered, it's a poster car after all. Do you really think that will go away just because it has a battery?
Mostly. Good looking is part of the equation, driving experience is the other. Reading through the 911 thread, some of the demand is due to looks, but much is due to the feel, lightweight, and mechanical connection. Those cars are sought after. There is an infinite number of ways to build an ICE drivetrain, and there have been lots of hits and misses, and people have different preferences. EV's will lose those mechanical distinctions. There really isn't much variation in what can be done with an EV power plant. They can make it more powerful, more efficient, or add more range. The have to rely on looks to set them apart. While that might make some good looking EV's sought after, it would be just as easy for a manufacturer to keep making whatever was popular. Porsche cannot sell a new 80's 911 if they wanted to.
This topic is locked. No further posts are being accepted.
