30% fewere new drivers...Whats the ripple effect going to be?

I live so close to work that I really don't need a vehicle and between my wife and I, we could get away with one car. I am actively looking for another job that are telecommuting positions. Vehicles are expensive and are only getting more expensive and I would say that current vehicles of today it is difficult to find one that fits my needs.

Thank you for the interesting topic NOHOME.

Here’s another likely consequence I’ve been thinking about…

I got my driver’s license on my sixteenth birthday and the first thing I did with it was to enroll in ground school. Literally, by noon I had wheels and was actively pursuing wings.

So, where is our next generation of pilots going to come from? How good is a pilot going to be if he / she didn’t start controlling a complex, motorized vehicle (not a toy or a sim but something real that can easily kill you) until well into their 20’s.

I’ve wanted to build a plane for as long as I can remember but it’s increasingly becoming pointless…our fleet of general aviation aircraft are so well built that they’re outlasting our pilot population.

Not much point in building a plane when the existing supply exceeds demand.

I don't think it's going to cause any loss of enthusiasts.

Enthusiasts WANT to get a drivers license.

This will weed out the texting-while-sipping-my-latte drivers who barely care.

It think it's a good thing, leave the road for those of use who want to be on it.

If driving is "too hard" you should be taking the bus or walking.

The ripple effect I am seeing is the opposite of what some of you are expecting.

There will be MORE newer cars sold. Because the fact that we are a car-based infrastructure is not going away any time soon. Drivers will wait to buy, which means they will be more capable of affording a more expensive automobile.

$100 beaters will go away, but will be crushed and recycled to make more new cars. This will create opportunities for high tech recyclers and brokers.

New cars will be more and more advanced, because drivers will be less and less capable, and more dependent on the nanny state. This will also push up car prices, which will push up comprehensive insurance rates.

These higher costs will push autonomous vehicles.

Taxes will continue to increase, as they always do. Fewer vehicles for young people will never mean politicians will become more capable of managing a budget.

Business for auto mechanics will INCREASE- owners will be less and less capable of basic maintenance. But the technical capabilities of the mechanics will also increase. This will mean increased wages for mechanics in the very short term, but not in the long term. Diagnostics and problem solving capability will transfer to the dealers and manufacturers. Mechanics will just be button pushers.

Roads and taxation will become easier and easier as the nanny state increases it's grasp on our day to day vehicle usage. We will be tracked, and charged for miles used, directly withheld from our paychecks.

Gasoline will begin being seen as a "dirty" fuel (much like diesel is today), and people won't want to pump their own. It will become more scarce, and major fuel manufacturers will transfer to being energy brokers, invested in other alternative fuel technologies.

Fuel prices will come down, not because of the taxes, but because of the need of the Saudis (and others) to sell the one commodity they have and can produce cheaply. This is OK by the government, because it is very easy to tax fuel imports at the ports. Arab states will push others out of the oil market (like we are seeing now), but other companies will get smart and quit trying to compete with them. They will become importers of foreign oil products, distributors, and energy brokers of various technologies.

Did I miss anything?

JohnRW1621 wrote: We are unhappy now that the manual trans is going away. Just wait for the steering wheel and pedals to go away too.

OK, someone finally said it...

Think about it- then all those people you hate on the road, the ones who drive because they have to NOT because they want to- they won't have to drive. We will finally be free of the distracted, unskilled, uncaring driver plague that currently makes it dangerous to be on our roads.

and if they make it mandatory to have your car drive itself? They can have my keys when they pry them from my cold, dead hands...

PHeller wrote:

GameboyRMH wrote: Mechanics are under a much greater threat from EV adoption than anything else, by far. An EV powertrain is virtually maintenance-free and practically indestructible.

Disagree. There will still be a demand for tire installation. A/C, Power Steering, Recharging system, window motor, suspension, transmission and autobody repair. If anything some of these issues may be easier to fix as they will be automatically diagnosed through a diagnostic software. Plug in, find problem, replace part. I do however think that service shops will charge more labor as they will no longer get big jobs like headgasket or waterpump replacement. We've still got at least 30-40 years before the ICE is anything less than the dominant mode of transportation.

Is powertrain work not the bread & butter of every mechanic? Engine accessories are going to be a lot less troublesome when they're independently driven by electric motors rather than belts, and aren't bathing in an ICE's prodigious waste heat. The regen system is the motor and charge controller which are pretty much maintenance-free. Brakes will also last much longer with regen braking. Most EVs don't exactly have a transmission, basically just a diff. Charging more for labor to keep profitability up doesn't really mesh with how capitalism works - there probably will be some wiggle room since the industry will be smaller, but if you charge too much someone will undercut you.

I think the ICE has at most another 15 years of dominance. EVs are getting better really fast and there's not much more improvement to be squeezed out of ICEs.

trigun7469 wrote: I live so close to work that I really don't need a vehicle and between my wife and I, we could get away with one car. I am actively looking for another job that are telecommuting positions. Vehicles are expensive and are only getting more expensive and I would say that current vehicles of today it is difficult to find one that fits my needs.

Amen, currently on the market for a new car and everything is either way too expensive or just plain dull.

RX Reven' wrote: Thank you for the interesting topic NOHOME. Here’s another likely consequence I’ve been thinking about… I got my driver’s license on my sixteenth birthday and the first thing I did with it was to enroll in ground school. Literally, by noon I had wheels and was actively pursuing wings. So, where is our next generation of pilots going to come from? How good is a pilot going to be if he / she didn’t start controlling a complex, motorized vehicle (not a toy or a sim but something real that can easily kill you) until well into their 20’s. I’ve wanted to build a plane for as long as I can remember but it’s increasingly becoming pointless…our fleet of general aviation aircraft are so well built that they’re outlasting our pilot population. Not much point in building a plane when the existing supply exceeds demand.

Computers.

You guys get that much pleasure from your morning commute? I for one welcome this change. Make the cities more walk, bike and public transportation friendly . Sitting in 45 minutes of traffic scared for my life because of all the numbskulls on their phones isn't my idea of a good time. I'd like to see a future where the car/truck is only a utility and hobby vehicle. You use them when you have to and for track days and other events.

GameboyRMH wrote: I think the ICE has at most another 15 years of dominance. EVs are getting better really fast and there's not much more improvement to be squeezed out of ICEs.

I sure don't see that at all. There's EV performance and ability on one hand, and then there are the materials and where they come from as the other hand.

I see the ability catching up, but I still have yet to see that the material issue being solved anytime soon.

ICE's will be around for a LOOONG time. Maybe something other than gasoline powered, but they will be around.

I do like my morning commute because I have the option to take the side roads and gravel route. I would hate it if I had to spend it all on M-59. Then a self driving car starts to sound appealing.

But that idea scares the crap out of me ever since I read a Car and Driver article about their long term Hyundai that decided to randomly panic stop on the interstate because something happened with the accident avoidance.

The role that the "Enthusiast" will play in the future is an interesting question.

In the past, the "Enthusiast" was always an important validating factor for a given brand. I have a feeling that the value of the enthusiast community is going to be vastly diminished as the new generations accept "Cars" as a mode of "Transportation" that is exclusive of "Entertainment" or "Ego". Where the concept of "Luxury" will fall in this is not clear.

Enyar wrote: I'd like to see a future where the car/truck is only a utility and hobby vehicle. You use them when you have to and for track days and other events.

I remember someone talking about this on an episode of TopGear (Jay Leno maybe?) when they were looking at a hydrogen powered car . Described how the car hobby will become like the horse hobby.

So, to make a generalization... the car hobby will be more expensive and only accessible for people who live in the country?

BlueInGreen44 wrote:

Enyar wrote: I'd like to see a future where the car/truck is only a utility and hobby vehicle. You use them when you have to and for track days and other events.

I remember someone talking about this on an episode of TopGear (Jay Leno maybe?) when they were looking at a hydrogen powered car . Described how the car hobby will become like the horse hobby. So, to make a generalization... the car hobby will be more expensive and only accessible for people who live in the country?

I would say that's probably a valid generalization except you won't have to live in the country. Maybe in the distant future when other modes of transportation fully take over but not initially. There will still be roads and cars for a longtime, as long as you have a place to store it you could drive it on weekends over to the track or cruise the coast.

I don’t see an issue over at least my lifetime of 40 years or so. Several points feed into that:

1. While the kids aren’t getting driving licenses as teens or even in collage, I think they still are once out of college. You need to get to work, relatives etc. once you’re not at mom and dads or on campus.
2. The population is growing worldwide. In the US we have increase over 50% from 1970 to 2010 (200,000,000 to 300,000,000). That’s a hell of a lot of new drivers coming our way. While Caucasian families are having fewer children, Latino families are having more so the general trend is onwards and upwards. Personally the roads are crowded enough, I really hope a significant portion don’t drive. As long as those that do all buy Ford products.
3. Yes mass transit will improve and more people will use it, especially in cities, but I doubt that will offset the increase in population. In the UK I used mass transit a lot, I still had several cars. You can’t pick up furniture from Ikea on the train, and while I would take the train 200miles to see my parents on my own, as soon as you add a second person the car is a better bet.
4. Long term I think we will see more smaller cars and fewer trucks. While my 401K loves truck sales, personally I think they are silly pointless things. But that means more smaller, lighter cars to play with.
5. I’m not worried about the steering wheel vanishing. No matter how good DARPA, Google and every auto manufacturer get at building autonomous cars, there are still some massive ethical and legal issues to overcome before you will be able to buy a steering wheel free car. Right now picture you are driving down a suburban street. There is a 10 year old on a bike coming towards you, and just as little Timmy is by your front left fender, little Lucy the toddler from next door comes out from behind a parked car chasing her ball. You have nowhere to go, you ARE going to hit and probably kill one of them. IT’s a split second decision and there is no right answer. As a human it’s a reaction and a judgment call. As a computer it’s an algorithm that someone has programed and made the decision in advance of which one dies. That’s going to be a whole mess of ethical legalese to figure out before we see smiling Google cars running down the road.
6. I do see more and more cars becoming plug in electric hybrids. There is no way round that and I don’t see it as a bad thing. Having spent a week back in London last summer I personally can’t wait for them to ban all internal combustion engines from operating in the city itself. The 2018 California mandate is being taken up by more states and requires an increasing % of sales to be either zero emission or plug in hybrids of some sort that can essentially run as zero emission vehicles in the daily commute. If you don’t sell X% of ZEV’s you can’t sell regular internal combustion or even non plug in hybrids. No negotiation. Before anyone tries to be clever, yes I know that making the electricity causes emissions, as does making the on board batteries, but you all know what I mean. Zero emissions in use. Before we get too bent out of shape about that, we already have a build thread on here about someone turboing their 1st gen Honda Insight. Also starting at the top with McLaren, Porsche and Ferrari we have hybrid supercars. How long before we can buy a 2,500lb Hybrid Miata with a 200hp IC engine and another 100hp of electric on demand? 20 years tops I bet.
7. Enthusiast. They will still come, more are born every day. Will there be fewer? berkeleyed if I know, but do you care? We could maintain the same population of enthusiasts with lower % of people becoming enthusiasts due to the growing population.. But if there are less, so what? Last I saw the entry list for a Detroit region Autocross was around 160 people, I’ve love to see that halved for more run time.

I do wonder how motorsport will change. NASCAR seems to have had it’s heyday in the early 2000’s based on the boom of the 90’s. F1 viewership is dropping, but that seems to be more to do with CVC capital moving to PPV premium channels in the UK and China, two of its biggest markets. Indy car has a great product in spite of itself. Sports car racing seems to be going from strength to strength again, as does Touring car and GT’s. I think Drag racing seems to be on the decline overall. Rally seems to continue its periodic cycles of almost boom, almost bust. The real growth I think will come from more compact easily digestible forms of motorsport like Drifting and European/Global Rally cross.

For Amateur motorsport I don’t know what’s happening. The cost to compete in road racing seems to have gone through the roof. The exceptions that that seem to be the unending growth in CrapCar racing which is filling an awesome niche. I actually would be far more interested in crap can if you had shorter races, not 24 hour events. Run several shorter single driver races per day where you can a driver in each event. Less wear and tear, fewer consumables, less time away from the family. You can’t (nor should you) fight safety equipment, but I think HANS and similar devices are a hindrance (at least perceived) until they get below $200. Also modern (again not arguing with the need) roll cages are far more expensive than 15-20 years ago. I am really excited to see what happens with Rally Sprints, I wish there were more hillclimbs and I really wish that some form of affordable, club level ‘European’ rally cross would spring up around the country

End of my incomprehensible ramblings for now.

Adrian_Thompson wrote: 5. I’m not worried about the steering wheel vanishing. No matter how good DARPA, Google and every auto manufacturer get at building autonomous cars, there are still some massive ethical and legal issues to overcome before you will be able to buy a steering wheel free car. Right now picture you are driving down a suburban street. There is a 10 year old on a bike coming towards you, and just as little Timmy is by your front left fender, little Lucy the toddler from next door comes out from behind a parked car chasing her ball. You have nowhere to go, you ARE going to hit and probably kill one of them. IT’s a split second decision and there is no right answer. As a human it’s a reaction and a judgment call. As a computer it’s an algorithm that someone has programed and made the decision in advance of which one dies. That’s going to be a whole mess of ethical legalese to figure out before we see smiling Google cars running down the road.

This isn't a big legal or ethical problem. The computer identifies the two children as obstacles it should stop for - maybe even identifies them as children. It decides that the best case scenario is hitting one of them, and then does so based on which pedestrian will take less impact from their speed and position, or just a coin flip if it can't decide. You can't expect a computer tell Timmy from Lucy and make a good judgement on who should live. Sounds cruel, but it's the least cruel and most impartial course of action, and presents a minimal attack surface to lawyers.

Or we could put some text-and-driver behind the wheel who hits both because he's not looking where he's going, or if you're really lucky, spares Lucy because she reminds him of his daughter and he doesn't have a son. Is that better?

GameboyRMH wrote: It decides that the best case scenario is hitting one of them, and then does so based on which pedestrian will take less impact from their speed and position

But that's the point. The first time that happens it's going to be Timmy or Lucy's mom and dad suing Google/Tesla whoever for eleventy bazzilion million million dollers for it having made in their opinion the wrong choice.

How bout when Self-Driving-Car A stops to avoid Timmy and Lucy, but Self-Driving-Car B malfunctions, flattening Self-Driving-Car A.

PHeller wrote: How bout when Self-Driving-Car A stops to avoid Timmy and Lucy, but Self-Driving-Car B malfunctions, flattening Self-Driving-Car A.

Precisely. Self driving is easy, it's the 0.00000001% of situations that you can't fault a human for that people will blame a human for and sue the ever living crap out of the corporation that builds autonomous cars. California is allowing Google to test autonomous cars with a back up driver on board. The first time they let them have totally self driving cars with no one in control and something happens there will be lawyers lining up around the block to sue both Google and the state of California. I think it's going to be a long time before the public, the lawyers, states and the Federal government catches up with what the technology will allow and we actually see autonomous cars on the roads.

I have nothing to add except that I talked to my 15 year old stepson last night. He got his learner's permit as soon as legally possible. He is super excited to learn how to drive. He drives whenever he can. His instructor told him that in the 8 years he has been an instructor, he hasn't seen anyone drive as well as him. I'm proud of him for taking such an interest in driving. He is not a gearhead at all. He is more interested in TwitterFaceBook and video games. He has to drive 50 hours with a chaperone and have his permit 9 months before he can get his license. He already knows what he wants for his first vehicle.

He keeps bugging me about selling him my 1995 Mustang GT. I've had it since he was 10. I don't think that's going to happen though LOL.

I'm extremely proud of him for wanting to take on responsibility of driving. Maybe there is hope for that generation yet

I can see autonomous cars being used on the expressway, but not city streets / neighborhoods. Basicly you would drive into a 'holding pen' at the top of the on ramp, enter where you want to go and the car takes over. Upon exit, car enters a holding area and you resume driving on your own.

Adrian_Thompson wrote: 5. I’m not worried about the steering wheel vanishing. No matter how good DARPA, Google and every auto manufacturer get at building autonomous cars, there are still some massive ethical and legal issues to overcome before you will be able to buy a steering wheel free car. Right now picture you are driving down a suburban street. There is a 10 year old on a bike coming towards you, and just as little Timmy is by your front left fender, little Lucy the toddler from next door comes out from behind a parked car chasing her ball. You have nowhere to go, you ARE going to hit and probably kill one of them. IT’s a split second decision and there is no right answer. As a human it’s a reaction and a judgment call. As a computer it’s an algorithm that someone has programed and made the decision in advance of which one dies. That’s going to be a whole mess of ethical legalese to figure out before we see smiling Google cars running down the road.

Google will have a continuous ranking for you based on your profile and the decision will be easy for it to figure out nearly instantaneously.

alfadriver wrote: In reply to rcutclif: There's a difference, though. While not everyone needs a gun, everyone needs personal transportation.

Invalid point, everyone has access to personal transportation......the trick is though, are they smart enough to figure out what their feet are for.

In my honest opinion, it boils down to a belief in personal freedom. If anything, its probably the absurd cost of insurance for 16-21yo that has screwed the pooch the most. I remember when I was 16, 3/4 of what I made at my part time job went towards paying my PLPD policy through my parents.....it was still $1800 every 6mo.

i think this will represent a pendulum swing toward a much slower production cycle of cars.

i think it may even go away from annual model changes.

the prospect of the expense of a new car is just not appealing anymore to newer generations crushed with other personal debts, and low employment participation.

fewer resources to go around.

and the ugly elephant in the room that car press and people like us dont like to talk about is that the vast majority of people who buy cars only want an appliance.

yamaha wrote:

alfadriver wrote: In reply to rcutclif: There's a difference, though. While not everyone needs a gun, everyone needs personal transportation.

Invalid point, everyone has access to personal transportation......the trick is though, are they smart enough to figure out what their feet are for. In my honest opinion, it boils down to a belief in personal freedom. If anything, its probably the absurd cost of insurance for 16-21yo that has screwed the pooch the most. I remember when I was 16, 3/4 of what I made at my part time job went towards paying my PLPD policy through my parents.....it was still $1800 every 6mo.

I know you were joking, but historically speaking, that ship sailed thousands of years ago. People stopped walking and carrying stuff themselves and moved to various beasts of burden- horses, mules, camels, etc. Then the carts those thigs pulled.

Before we all spell the doom of personal transportation other than walking, we should remember that we've not been walking big distances for many thousands of years. Especially with stuff.

I think used car prices will rise. Remember when a $500 car was $500? Then Cash for Clunkers came and wiped out a significant portion of them. Now a $500 car is $1,000.

they already have risen, as i've personally observed. but not in a linear way.

cheapest cars stayed cheap. but anything running in the 1500 range and up to about 4000 have bloated in price.

anything above that still have more forces in play than what cash for clunkers did, (not that it had no effect but that other things contribute more, especially dealership supplied vehicles).