tester (Forum Supporter) said:
Just put this in some sort of normal business frame work...
Up front Capital investment $1200
Current gross top line $200-300 ish
Reoccuring expense $30
Expected gross top line per month $300 at first.
It will take about 3-4 months to break even on your capital expenditure before you make a profit. That assumes the mining rate is stable. If I understand this electronic mining business, the rate of crypto mined will drop over time. I would try to extrapolate that curve to make sure that this is worth pursuing.
To put this another way; In 6 months, will this rig still be making $270ish net or more like $60?
Your numbers are pretty spot-on, although my current monthly gross is $334 and it will increase this week to close to $400 as I'm getting a couple cards in the mail (although that adds to my up front capital investment as well). As for the decline over time, there's a lot more to that than simply a 10% decline each year (recently read an article that said that.) From what I've read and from everyone I've spoken to, as long as you take care of your GPUs and keep the temperatures in check, they don't really decline noticeably over time, with a few exceptions. The rate that they mine at will slowly decline, but it's more measurable over 5 years than 6 months - I have a card that used to get 27-28mH/s back in 2015. Now it gets about 24, not due to the card getting worn, but due to the difficulty rating increasing over time as more people start mining. However, the value of Ethereum is massively higher now than it was in 2015. So it's a mixed bag.
The difficulty of Vertcoin has actually gone down over the past 6 months, so I'm mining more now than I was whenever I started (I really should look that up, somewhere around 4-6 weeks ago I started seriously mining.) Ethereum is the big daddy; the most profitable crypto to mine, and it will stay so until December, when it becomes no longer mineable. The difficulty will increase, so I'll mine less Ethereum, but the value of Ethereum will likely increase, so whatever I mine will be worth more. I've already seen this during the time I've been mining.
It's a very multifaceted issue with no simple answer. Planning for a 5-10% decrease each year is a safe bet, absolutely. However, I am currently mining Vertcoin primarily with GPUs from 2013, and aside from using more power than modern cards, they perform extremely well; better than modern equivalents in fact. I hope that sheds a bit of light on it. I tend to ramble so please let me know if I need to focus more on something specific.