Anyone else notice that the conditions are looking really good right now for a severe and eventually global economic collapse?
If I had anything to lose I'd probably be freaking the berkeley out and going full prepper at this. And the media silence is deafening! There was a lot more panic from the media around when the recession first hit, or the last US government shutdown, and is it just me or are conditions FAR worse now?
I would be interested to see the pattern you are looking at. Can you post up some examples?
Europe's berkeleyed:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/22/us-ecb-policy-idUSKBN0KU2ST20150122
China's berkeleyed:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/20/us-china-economy-idUSKBN0KT04920150120
Europe and Asia are berkeleyed:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/23/us-global-economy-idUSKBN0KW0CI20150123
Russia's berkeleyed:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-23/shuvalov-sees-hard-landing-in-russia-as-crisis-to-surpass-2009.html
Only one has to eat dirt to collapse the house of cards, and a lot of cards are looking shaky right now. The way that oil keeps going down and down with no end is also a bit disturbing.
GameboyRMH wrote: Anyone else notice that the conditions are looking really good right now for a severe and eventually global economic collapse?
Yes.
GameboyRMH wrote: Anyone else notice that the conditions are looking really good right now for a severe and eventually global economic collapse? If I had anything to lose I'd probably be freaking the berkeley out and going full prepper at this. And the media silence is deafening! There was a lot more panic from the media around when the recession first hit, or the last US government shutdown, and is it just me or are conditions FAR worse now?
The reality is that global economic conditions are worse than they have ever been. The sort of good news is that much like the big banks cant be allowed to fail or be prosecuted, the economic fantasy must be protected at any cost because there is no place to land. There could still be a year or two left.
After the 2008 collapse, there was still a significant number of people who had lived responsibly, invested conservatively and saved money. Wallstreet called Washington and demanded that this pool of money be delivered to them so that the "Stock Market" could be rescued with a cash transfusion.
Since no sane person wanted to deliver their savings to people who had been exposed as untouchable criminals, Washington dropped interest rates to zero so that these fiscally responsible people would have no choice, put your money in the market or starve. If the market goes down now, these people lose it all. They don't have time to "recover" by leaving the money in the market.
China has had a real estate ponzi scheme going for a long time. Google up Chinese Ghost Cities for an eye opener. When that thing pops, it is going to be huge.
After the 2008 collapse, I saw the heart ripped out of the economy. Pretty much dead in NA. Of course, dead bodies make for good eating short term and stock returns have been feasting on such a vulture economy. There won't be any meat on the bone when this one ends.
But in the grand scheme, it don't really matter, life will go on. It always does.
Listening...
China is collapsing, Korea is dealing with inflation and massive labor concerns, Japan has never really recovered and has really just threaded water and stabilized, USA much of the same as Japan, the rest of Europe really gets boned by Germany, who's numbers carry the continent as a whole.
Oil is interesting right now, OPEC has been killed bringing prices down, but also stripping power from our trade allies in the mid east, crippling their ability to defend against fundamentalist. When they lose all control of the region as a whole that's when the E36M3 storm is really going to happen. Yemen is the beginning.
Yes. Scary, isn't it? Plus, if you live away from all of that your money is devalued like crazy and if you live within it you are waiting for the cards to crash down around you.
Time to learn how to hunt, I guess.
I dunno, it seems like USA does far better when the rest of the world is falling apart.
Although it seemed like when that has happened in the past American's rich and poor were more likely to spend more domestically and contribute more to the growth of the nation. Sacrifice, if it were. Today people look for handouts or run off to their island escapes when things get difficult.
Time for me to start a prepper company to sell to all you people who want to be prepared and are paranoid...
What did buffett say.. and I paraprhase.. When people are fearful, buy and when people are buying be fearful...
I think we started the Greater Depression in about 2000. 2008 was the worst spike down, and we have not recovered. The fake numbers the governments put out pretend everything is great, but how come the actual employed population percentage is at the lowest it's been in 30 or 40 years? You can't fix a problem until you admit you have one. Printing more money (today not done with a press, but with a computer, as in "hey, add another zero to that column. Fixed") and giving it to your friends to spend first or lend to others at interest does not fix a broken economic system. It just wall papers over the huge hole in the wall. This E36 M3 won't be fixed for another 10 years, at least. Maybe 20.
Dr. Hess wrote: This E36 M3 won't be fixed
I fixed your last sentence for you
Okay, where's the GRM compound and is there an opening for a machinist?
I do great voice impressions too! 
I'm all for it! Housing prices in my part of town are right back up to the peak, pre collapse. Houses are selling like crazy, inventory is low and everything I try to buy gets bought by a cash investor. Lets bring those prices back down so I can buy something dammit!
Things are bad all over and look like they will just get worse as time goes by. I think our government has just gotten good at manipulating what we see so most people here on the home front just see it as another bump in the road instead of an oh E36 M3 situation.
If I look around and talk locally people are still not recovering from what has been going on for years. Food prices are still going up even though gas is coming down. People are still having trouble finding a job that pays more than minimum wage. Someone I went to college with said everyone in our graduating class that she has talked to has basically fallen flat on their faces. Many can't find jobs those that can barely make more than minimum wage. Right now I make less than I did 6 years ago with no benefits and I have a family now. We try and keep a large pantry going in case something happens and we run out of money. We are sitting on a few months worth of food if we stretch things. It won't be fancy but it will keep us alive and healthy. Just made a deal on a quarter steer as well so that will help some as well and keep us in meat for a bit.
Fact of the matter is if things ever got as bad as they did in the great depression many folks now would just be flat screwed. They don't have the skills or knowledge people had back then. The majority of people have no ability or knowledge to grow or collect their own food. The bread lines would be a powder keg. People today I do not think would adapt well to being told "no you can't have that".
Hopefully something can happen to turn things around before we get to far down the drain. Some other countries are already getting flushed as we speak.
The_Jed wrote: Okay, where's the GRM compound and is there an opening for a machinist? I do great voice impressions too!
Hell they put in a housing development across the road from me and as it stands only 3 or 4 of the houses are occupied the other dozen are for sale fairly cheap.
It is all made up anyways, so we'll make a way up for it to survive. It has its ups and downs, even on a global scale. It is nice that we live in a country with great resources and abilities; even if they aren't currently being utilized, if need be we can support ourselves. Even though I know how to grow food, and I'm pretty accurate with a bow, I won't need these skills thanks to the US economy.
I see a lot of fear mongering, personally. Not the first time this has happened, and it won't be the last. We'll survive. If I was between 50 and 70, I'd be worried. I'm 25, and am almost completely invested in the S&P 500. I'll be ok. I personally think that the bigger issue is the lack of personal financial intelligence on the whole.
Check out this website, play with the graph to see the US personal savings rates: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-savings. Notice how high it was in the 80's? Notice how low it was in the 90's? People got complacent with the best economy we'd ever had. And it went down. Save early, save often, and you'll be ok. Doesn't even matter if you're that good at it, as long as you're doing something.
The one thing I do worry about for ME is the housing market. I should be buying a home, but I think I am going to rent for a few years to see what happens with this and if/when/how it hits the Chicago market.
Maybe I bucked the trend, but during the past economic downturn.. Sure I've been laid off.. Had to sell houses at losses.. But I increased my salary about 100%. Makes me wonder what I could have done without the downturn. I'm not here to brag.. Just trying to provide a counterpoint to all the bad news.
In reply to rebelgtp:
Good thing I enjoy eating soybeans I grow......
If this were to happen, I'd only have to worry about getting fuel for the equipment. Anything more than 40ac is impractical for horse drawn stuff. 
I was doing a bit of supply hoarding a few years ago, but the latest news has me thinking it might be time to take inventory and resupply as needed. I do a majority of our grocery shopping and food prices have me worried so I've been buying in bulk when I can.
For some real economics doom and gloom, read zerohedge.com. An unvarnished look at economics.
Oh, here's why those houses are being bought for cash, and not by young couples starting their lives: New money (add a zero...) comes out. Goes to bankers, to hedge funds. Gotta park it some place. Everyone knows things suck, and when you make new money from nothing it dilutes the value of the existing money. So, put it in what used to be called "ABCD" or "Anything Bernanke Can't Destroy." That's real estate, among other things. Also, hot money from corrupt foreign countries face the same problems, so they need to park it somewhere. U.S. real estate is it, plus the US then gives them preferential treatment for a visa/green card if they happen to own property here worth so much. That's how the Chinese and Russian money flowed in here. Add to that the fact that real estate is outside of U.S. money laundering law thanks to the NAR and things get real interesting. Make a hot billion in illegal dog food sales in China? Buy U.S. real estate 100 million dollar apartments, etc., get resident status, you got an escape hatch. Sell the real estate down the line and do what you want with the now clean money.
mtn wrote: I see a lot of fear mongering, personally. Not the first time this has happened, and it won't be the last. We'll survive.... I personally think that the bigger issue is the lack of personal financial intelligence on the whole.
This this this!
(edited long post)
If you're financially intelligent, you'll be fine. It's the wasteful that will be punished.
Adapt. Overcome.
Dr. Hess wrote: For some real economics doom and gloom, read zerohedge.com. An unvarnished look at economics.
I like the The Burning Platform for my daily gloom. Lots of different people's stuff posted there and I find it well worth the time to look through the posts and learn from the good ones.
Yup, world on fire, we are all going to die. Best go out and buy a bunch of gold and bury it in your back yard.
Hess I think is right, a lot of the real estate rise is people planting money. Same idea with the collector cars (Barret-Jackson etc). This is not new of course, it's been going on for a LONG time (a bit more international now I suspect though).
Europe is now printing money. Seen the Euro lately? Might be good time for the European vacation you have been thinking about.
Will the US explode? Dollar collapse? Unlikely. Why? The Dollar IS the world currency effectively (it goes down, everyone goes down, lots of people with money do not want that to happen / will not allow it to happen). It may not be great but it is FAR better then any other. That is why the US can print money and not get runaway inflation (not sure about the Euro though 
)
Honestly. You want to make money out of this? Find a way to make money off people who think the world is ending, that is normally the best route (don't dig a mine, sell the tools to the miner).
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
If all you read is bad news, that's what you're going to think. The same goes for reading nothing but good news. We're somewhere in the middle.
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