Driverless cars?

With all the talk about driverless cars its made me wonder...will that hurt detailers and mechanics?

Why?

Cars will still break.

There will still be accidents.

It will destroy the detailing/bodywork/paint industry, turning it into a tiny piece of its former self. There will be far less accidents than before and therefore far less need for this kind of work.

Mechanics will only be slightly affected, this will only fix PEBWAS-caused mechanical problems, or problems resulting from accidents.

On the plus side, there will be a few dozen, maybe a hundred more jobs in the world for top-skilled programmers.

Oh, and a bit more work for the automotive electronics industry (every car will need more sensors and actuators and at least 1 more xCU.)

Seems like we will just need more technically proficient mechanics.

(Which is increasingly difficult)

GameboyRMH wrote: It will destroy the detailing/bodywork/paint industry, turning it into a tiny piece of its former self. There will be far less accidents than before and therefore far less need for this kind of work.

I completely disagree.

It may reduce front end collisions, but they were totalled anyway, so they never were work for body shops.

Shopping carts will still ding cars. People will still open their doors into cars. Non-driverless cars will still hit driverless cars (especially when parked).

A driverless car sitting in traffic will still get rear-ended (they have no where to go to get out of the way).

In my area, body shops are kept alive by accidents involving hitting deer. These will be reduced, but I doubt a driverless car can avoid many deer.

I think it will INCREASE the detailing business. The business is driven by pride, and people will be more proud of their (more expensive, "cooler") cars, and will therefore visit the detailer more often.

It wouldn't shock me if insurance companies and lenders even start pushing the industry a little, because they have more invested in the vehicle.

And I REALLY don't think anyone can prove that a driverless car will never hit anyone/ anything.

A dirty/ malfunctioning sensor, a bad servo, bad programing...

A driverless car is VASTLY less likely to cause or fail to avoid an accident than one driven by the average person (who is not us, but someone who we would be lucky if they're looking out the windscreen instead of at their phone). There is going to be a massive reduction in accidents as driverless car adoption increases.

Driverless cars won't be a premium option for too long - when I was a kid, car AC was for rich people, now it's almost as standard as windshield wipers. So people aren't going to be more proud of them for long either.

In 30-40 years, driverless cars will be as cheap and common as any other car (human-driven cars might not even be street-legal anymore! The advantages of all cars being autonomous would be huge so there is a lot of incentive to do this) and bodywork will only be needed due to "environmental damage" such as shopping carts and the extremely rare accident involving an autonomous car.

I don't see how all this can not result in the scenario I specified.

It should RAISE the value of the vehicles, which will mean FEWER vehicles totalled by insurance companies, therefore MORE work for body shops.

MORE repairs will involve diagnostics and plug-and-play modules. More stuff to break means more work for mechanics.

Shops will need greater diversity in their staffs. A shop that used to employ 10 mechanics will now also need an advanced diagnostics technician, and maybe a programmer. They will also need better legal representation.

SVreX wrote: And I REALLY don't think anyone can prove that a driverless car will never hit anyone/ anything. A dirty/ malfunctioning sensor, a bad servo, bad programing...

Not never, but very rarely.

They'll have redundant sensors and servos like aircraft so one failing will tell the car to park instead of making it go ballistic. Programming will be tested to hell and back just like software used on aircraft, so the quality will be much better. Every company making these will have the sword of Damocles (or the sword of The Lawsuit Apocalypse if you prefer) hanging over their head, waiting to drop the first time the public finds a bug, so autonomous car software will be some of the most bug-free software on the planet, right up there with avionics software and spacecraft control code.

Aircraft still crash.

In the future you'll lose your car in the parking lot never to be seen again.

Google's driverless cars have proven that at current levels of technology they aren't viable. They can drive the same route over and over, but as soon as you throw rain/snow or some other variable into the mix they are helpless. So that means no we probably won't see them in our lifetimes. http://www.technologyreview.com/news/530276/hidden-obstacles-for-googles-self-driving-cars/

The removal of the steering wheel from the current vehicles scares the crap out of me because when (not if) the electronics get screwed up there's no way for a human to take over. Not good. Think the electronics won't go haywire? Of course they will. Just look at how quickly any electronic device can lock up. Heck, my modem and cable box sometimes get in a death match to see which one can cause the most problems. I do NOT want to trust my life to such unreliable technology. Let's not even get started on hackers.

SVreX wrote: It should RAISE the value of the vehicles, which will mean FEWER vehicles totalled by insurance companies, therefore MORE work for body shops.

What will the body shops do if nothing damages the cars? Maybe body shops will close and supercar-grade paint shops will open as people become more concerned about paint damage?

SVreX wrote: MORE repairs will involve diagnostics and plug-and-play modules. More stuff to break means more work for mechanics.

True.

SVreX wrote: Shops will need greater diversity in their staffs. A shop that used to employ 10 mechanics will now also need an advanced diagnostics technician, and maybe a programmer. They will also need better legal representation.

They might need another diagnostics guy, but absolutely not a programmer. Nobody outside the manufacturer will touch or probably even look at the code. Even with EFI and now CANbus, there are no programmers in car shops. Again, think avionics code.

I REALLY want driverless cars to become the dominant mode of transportation within 5 years. Why? Think about it...people on this board have been able to create their own very complex fuel injection systems, wireless networks and other amazing hacks. How hard will it be for them to program a transmitter that I can put in my front grille that tells the Google cars ahead of me to slow and pull over to the right automatically? Like parting the Red Sea everywhere we go!

Curmudgeon wrote: The removal of the steering wheel from the current vehicles scares the crap out of me because when (not if) the electronics get screwed up there's no way for a human to take over. Not good. Think the electronics won't go haywire? Of course they will. Just look at how quickly any electronic device can lock up. Heck, my modem and cable box sometimes get in a death match to see which one can cause the most problems. I do NOT want to trust my life to such unreliable technology. Let's not even get started on hackers.

That's like comparing a Chinese kids' toy to a piece of military equipment, consumer electronics are lazily slapped together in 3 seconds with whatever's cheap and just have to be reliable enough to not crash too often and secure enough that a bored script kiddie won't get in within 5 minutes (which they sometimes fail at).

Again you have to compare it to avionics code. Airgapped from the outside world, so there's no way for hackers to get in without physical access...and even then, they'll epoxy the hell out of the unit housing. Put through hell in testing so that anything that could make it crash could be found. Anything it connects to is similarly tested with the unit so there will be no interaction problems.

If you've flown on a modern airliner, you've essentially flown on an autonomous vehicle with an optional driver override - which is sometimes not used between takeoff and touchdown! And yet you and the pilots who are on it every day are still alive.

PHeller wrote: Aircraft still crash. In the future you'll lose your car in the parking lot never to be seen again.

But in that future, I will have an app to have the car find me.

"Car, I'm ready to go home" and it will show up at the store front for you.

GameboyRMH wrote: In 30-40 years, driverless cars will be as cheap and common as any other car

I kind of agree with you, but you are missing a really important point.

New (driverless) cars will become VASTLY more unaffordable to many, many more people.

Let's assume everything you say is true, and lets compare it to history.

Since 1980 (35 years), automobiles have vastly improved in their technical capability.

In 1980, the median US household income was $16,354, and the average new car price was $7,210. It represented 44% of the annual income.

Today, the median US household income is $51,017, and the average new car price is $30,303. It represents 59% of the annual income.

That means the cost of new cars has increased by 135% as a percentage of the annual income. That means fewer people can afford new technology.

So, I AGREE with your prediction that driverless cars may be similar cost to other available vehicles in 35 years, but I DISAGREE with your assumption that everyone will be driving them. Far fewer people will be able to afford the technology.

However, I would also speculate the possibility that the technology will could morph and be incorporated into mass transit. Since fewer people will be able to afford cars, more people will use automated mass transit systems.

Which could mean you are right- the body shops may suffer. But NOT because there are fewer accidents per vehicle. They will suffer because fewer people will have cars.

Automobiles will become a playtoy of the wealthy and elite.

You're correct about the rising price of cars vs. income, although you could argue that it's an economic problem. I don't think the effect will be drastic though, it will pretty much follow the current curve - just in my lifetime, we've absorbed emissions controls and literally a ton of safety equipment without what you describe happening. Autonomous driving gear will cost about the same as either of those.

People will revolt long before only the wealthy elite can afford cars, as long as a workable "android enforcer" isn't invented first.

GameboyRMH wrote:

Curmudgeon wrote: The removal of the steering wheel from the current vehicles scares the crap out of me because when (not if) the electronics get screwed up there's no way for a human to take over. Not good. Think the electronics won't go haywire? Of course they will. Just look at how quickly any electronic device can lock up. Heck, my modem and cable box sometimes get in a death match to see which one can cause the most problems. I do NOT want to trust my life to such unreliable technology. Let's not even get started on hackers.

That's like comparing a Chinese kids' toy to a piece of military equipment, consumer electronics are lazily slapped together in 3 seconds with whatever's cheap and just have to be reliable enough to not crash too often and secure enough that a bored script kiddie won't get in within 5 minutes (which they sometimes fail at). Again you have to compare it to avionics code. Airgapped from the outside world, so there's no way for hackers to get in without physical access...and even then, they'll epoxy the hell out of the unit housing. Put through hell in testing so that anything that could make it crash could be found. Anything it connects to is similarly tested with the unit so there will be no interaction problems. If you've flown on a modern airliner, you've essentially flown on an autonomous vehicle with an optional driver override - which is sometimes not used between takeoff and touchdown! And yet you and the pilots who are on it every day are still alive.

Yeah, I've heard all that. Still have to remember that oh yes electronics DO go tits up no matter how well 'armored' they are and with extremes of heat and cold (just as one 'for instance') circuit boards DO fail. You mention avionics; keep in mind that the airliners with meat intelligence backup that you mention, well there's MH370 and the Air Asia crash that are currently dominating the news. At least those did have a way for a pilot to at least try to take over, the driverless cars don't even have that.

Hackers have proven they don't even need to be close to their target. It's a proven fact that if humans design and build something then other humans can certainly reverse engineer the same thing and wreak havoc. It's impossible to eliminate the human factor no matter how hard one tries; all it would take is one disgruntled employee selling a back door 'key' to the programming (like the theory behind the recent Sony 'hack'). With no steering wheel etc to take over, now what? Just sit there as a target for the huge semi that's now equally driverless?

Maybe you trust that kind of thing with your life. Sorry, I don't. Not for me.

If you want to have an emergency driver override that's reasonable, but again if you look at avionics, the autonomous tech can be very reliable. Aircraft have multiple "computers" and one or more can take over from one that breaks or goes crazy.

Attacking an airgapped target is borderline impossible, even if you have some secret "key" (and when programming a standalone computer, if there is a secret "key" that allows remote access that is a big glaring security problem that would be taken care of early). Airgapped means you can't get network access to the device you want to attack. If autonomous cars use any kind of communication, that will have to be handled by a separate system that will then communicate with the "DCU cluster" using a special-purpose protocol, so that's another serious barrier to break - again like avionics gear.

There are even systems open to the Internet that are very secure - the technology is in place now that a hacker could steal all the money from most of the world's bank accounts and credit cards if he could only break in, and yet this doesn't happen. Credit card numbers get stolen from retailers but never the credit companies themselves. Why is that?

What difference does it make whether credit card info is stolen from a retailer or the CC company? The end result is the same; it's still stolen.

Yeah, I'm a Luddite. I don't fully trust computers or any electronics for that matter. It's just too damn easy to mess with them.

GameboyRMH wrote: You're correct about the rising price of cars vs. income, although you could argue that it's an economic problem. I don't think the effect will be drastic though, it will pretty much follow the current curve - just in my lifetime, we've absorbed emissions controls and literally a ton of safety equipment without what you describe happening.

That may be indicatjve if where you live.

I live in one of the 10 poorest areas of the country. The number of people who own cars is falling rapidly, the age of the cars is getting older and more decrepid quickly, and we STILL have shops that do not work on fuel injection, or anything with a computer.

I realize this is not normal, but it DOES exist.

If you bring your driverless car to Albany GA, I PROMISE you will have to tow it to Atlanta if it breaks.

Your AT&T cellphone wont work here either.

Technology advances in major cities and on Interstate highway corridors. Other places are still at least 20 years behind.

Damn, well I sure as hell don't live in the SF bay area but you won't have any trouble getting EFI'd cars worked on near me, and I'd be shocked if the median income by me was better.

Curmudgeon wrote:

GameboyRMH wrote:

Curmudgeon wrote: The removal of the steering wheel from the current vehicles scares the crap out of me because when (not if) the electronics get screwed up there's no way for a human to take over. Not good. Think the electronics won't go haywire? Of course they will. Just look at how quickly any electronic device can lock up. Heck, my modem and cable box sometimes get in a death match to see which one can cause the most problems. I do NOT want to trust my life to such unreliable technology. Let's not even get started on hackers.

That's like comparing a Chinese kids' toy to a piece of military equipment, consumer electronics are lazily slapped together in 3 seconds with whatever's cheap and just have to be reliable enough to not crash too often and secure enough that a bored script kiddie won't get in within 5 minutes (which they sometimes fail at). Again you have to compare it to avionics code. Airgapped from the outside world, so there's no way for hackers to get in without physical access...and even then, they'll epoxy the hell out of the unit housing. Put through hell in testing so that anything that could make it crash could be found. Anything it connects to is similarly tested with the unit so there will be no interaction problems. If you've flown on a modern airliner, you've essentially flown on an autonomous vehicle with an optional driver override - which is sometimes not used between takeoff and touchdown! And yet you and the pilots who are on it every day are still alive.

Yeah, I've heard all that. Still have to remember that oh yes electronics DO go tits up no matter how well 'armored' they are and with extremes of heat and cold (just as one 'for instance') circuit boards DO fail. You mention avionics; keep in mind that the airliners with meat intelligence backup that you mention, well there's MH370 and the Air Asia crash that are currently dominating the news. At least those did have a way for a pilot to at least try to take over, the driverless cars don't even have that. Hackers have proven they don't even need to be close to their target. It's a proven fact that if humans design and build something then other humans can certainly reverse engineer the same thing and wreak havoc. It's impossible to eliminate the human factor no matter how hard one tries; all it would take is one disgruntled employee selling a back door 'key' to the programming (like the theory behind the recent Sony 'hack'). With no steering wheel etc to take over, now what? Just sit there as a target for the huge semi that's now equally driverless? Maybe you trust that kind of thing with your life. Sorry, I don't. Not for me.

I would also suggest it is orders of magnitude easier to program an aircraft to fly at a specific altitude on a specific heading and land safely on an empty airstrip than it is to program a car to drive through downtown rush hour traffic.

In reply to GameboyRMH:

I think you are mistaken.

Median household income here is $26,000.

Is anyone else concerned that the advent of driverless cars will eventually lead to human-piloted cars being restricted from highways and major thoroughfares, or banned altogether? You know, "for the children"? Or am I just paranoid?