Finance question -- with a grain of salt

belteshazzar wrote: okay, if you HAD anything in bonds, move to equities pronto. By your profile you've got 12 years and 4 months at least right? That's plenty of time.

Yep, at historical annual averages, there is plenty of time to recover the 50% many like me just lost.

Unfortunately, that would leave me at retirement where I was 6 months ago, with about 1/3 of my retirement needs funded.

That, of course, assumes the solvency of the SS Trust Fund. Unfortunately, I am at the tail end of the baby boomers. There is an enormous population of people ahead of me in deep doo doo who will be standing in line at Mr. Obama's door with their hands out.

I am not convinced we can consider "historical norms" as normal.

Maybe I can start selling off junky race car projects.

You're only counting on doubling your money after 12 years?

not even counting contributions between now and then.

No, based on normal rates of returns market wide, doubling should take 9 or 10 years. Of course there is risk, and that is pretty hard to assess these days.

The stuff I actually ever made money on I did a lot better. Just don't see much of it out there right now.

New contributions aren't really recovery, they are new funds.

I have varied holdings in several dozen equities directly, plus several hundred in mutual funds. Every single one of them reads negative for the year, many by a long shot.

It's hard to double anything at that rate.

If 20 % of them manage negative growth for 2 years, and the others aren't stellar, it could easily take 12 years to recover.

But, you are correct. It's a good time to buy (bought today).

You'll be alright. I'm going to ignore everything you just said but the last line. Good job!

Who are you, my wife??

Yep, at historical annual averages, there is plenty of time to recover the 50% many like me just lost.

You might want to pick up a Maclean's (yes, a Canadian magazine) and check out the article they have on the Japanese stock market. Odd how it looks almost exactly like what the world just went through...