To all,
First, thank you for your posts and please feel free to take this thread into whatever financial discussions you’d like.
FWIW, I’m not a high frequency trader…I teach advanced statistics for a living, several of my friends are at the Ph.D. level, and none of us believe math can be used to outsmart the market…the slight insights that technical analysis (moving averages, support levels, etc.) provide are trivial compared to the “Black Swan” effect of game changers such as major technological advancements, geo-political events, etc..
I’m an old school investor…save until it hurts, invest at a consistent rate regardless of what the market is doing, avoid commissions and taxes like the plague, and never, never, never “Lift” (sell in fear).
I’m 52 and I’ve got nothing in bonds…94% is in equities (78% in S&P Index & ETF funds / 16% is in company stock and a few favorites like Amazon) and the remaining 6% is split between cash and precious metals.
I constantly get warning e-mails from my brokerage houses saying that I’m investing too aggressively for my age but what they don’t know (or perhaps care about) is that I’ve got 80% equity in my home and all of my other debt (one car loan and two credit cards) represents 33 days of my average daily net wealth accumulation over the last three years. In effect, I’m self-insuring by keeping my debt low so I can capture the benefits of investing fairly aggressively without being exposed to excessive risk.
I’m in strong agreement with dculberson’s comments above…many studies over the years have shown that people focus far more on loss than gain. In other words, they tend to think the world is coming to an end if they lose 10% in a market downturn but only shrug their shoulders if they miss out on a 10% gain in a market upturn…STAY FULLY VESTED AND NEVER, NEVER, NEVER LIFT.
Some will notice that I didn’t talk about diversification…it is important as math has an inherently negative quality…if you lose 50%, you need to gain 100% to get back to your starting point but if you gain 50%, you can only afford to lose 33% before being back at your starting point.
Unfortunately, we’re living in a grand experiment where the theory that humans have become so smart that they can override the natural tendency for markets to fluctuate is being tested. One casualty of this experiment is that we can’t both have an age appropriate diversified portfolio and receive a reasonable cumulative rate of return.
My solution has been to hit it with a BFH…live way below my means, build up a portfolio 2X+ what the consensus of financial advisors recommend so I won’t have to eat cat food in retirement if the market takes a big hit , and be balls out in equities no matter what happens.