Interesting comments in the latest report from the Mennonite Centre previously operating in Molochansk: June 26, 2023
Sounds like the russians have hired "rioters" to scare the Ukrianian-ness out of the locals and inspire them to accept russkiy mir, or else.
This is not surprising. I wish it was.
DarkMonohue said:Interesting comments in the latest report from the Mennonite Centre previously operating in Molochansk: June 26, 2023
Sounds like the russians have hired "rioters" to scare the Ukrianian-ness out of the locals and inspire them to accept russkiy mir, or else.
This is not surprising. I wish it was.
This tactic is loved by wannabe dictators the world over. It's used to convince people a radical fringe minority is the majority and supported by all. Some French dude wrote a book about all this over 200 years ago.
When Ukraine Will Receive GLSDB Missiles
For the uninitiated (like myself) Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb.
The story states that Ukraine does not have these yet, but the Russians claim that Russian defense has shot these down.
As the world turns... so does the words that come out of Putin's head hole...
Corruption in Russia! What?! Wait, do you mean more than standard?
-----
Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to present Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reputation among Wagner personnel and within Russian society. Putin implied on June 27 that “the owner of Concord company” (the Concord company is the parent company of Prigozhin’s catering company) lied about the Wagner Group private military company’s (PMC) independence from the Kremlin and the lack of state compensation for Wagner personnel.[1]Putin publicly claimed for the first time since Wagner’s founding that the Kremlin “fully funds” and “fully supplies” the Wagner PMC and claimed that the Kremlin made various payments to Wagner personnel and their families from Russia’s federal budget. Putin added that “the owner of the Concord Company” received 80 billion rubles (about $936 million) between May 2022 and May 2023 for delivering and catering food to the Russian military, and that the Kremlin will investigate whether the company stole anything during its work for the Kremlin. Putin was clearly referring to Prigozhin, who is the owner of the Concord Company Group and previously worked as Putin’s personal caterer, but Putin continues to refuse to say Prigozhin’s name.[2] Putin’s insinuation that the Kremlin will investigate the Concord Company may be preparation to justify the Kremlin’s confiscation of Prigozhin’s assets via corruption charges.
Putin is rhetorically separating Prigozhin from the Wagner PMC and is deliberately depriving Prigozhin of the title of Wagner financier to undermine his role in the Wagner PMC. The Kremlin launched an ongoing domestic information campaign in Russia to forgive Wagner fighters and commanders in an effort to lure Wagner personnel to sign contacts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).[3] The deliberate effort to separate Prigozhin from the Wagner Group is likely intended to set informational conditions so that the Kremlin can accuse Prigozhin of corruption or conspiring with Ukraine or the West and alienate Prigozhin from Wagner personnel whom the Kremlin seeks to retain to fight in Ukraine as part of the regular Russian military.[4] Prigozhin had built his personal brand on criticizing the Russian military command and bureaucrats for corruption and ties to Western countries, and Putin is likely attempting to shatter Prigozhin’s populist appeal by accusing him of the same sins.
Putin has likely decided that he cannot directly eliminate Prigozhin without making him a martyr at this time.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s account of his mediation between Putin and Prigozhin on June 24-25 in tandem with Putin’s June 26 speech indicates that Putin promised Lukashenko and Prigozhin that Prigozhin and the Wagner Group would have “security guarantees” in Belarus.
Lukashenko likely seeks to use the Wagner Group in Belarus to buy maneuvering space to balance against the Kremlin campaign to absorb Belarus via the Union State
Lukashenko likely seeks to closely control any Wagner Group forces that move into Belarus.
(if you want more info on the last points: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-27-2023 )
Someone may be getting a brief experience of what the view is like from the 5th floor:
Surovikin knew in advance about Prigozhin's plans to start a rebellion in Russia, - The New York Times
An alliance between Sergei Surovikin and Yevgeny Prigozhin could explain why Prigozhin is still alive, sources say. Washington is now trying to find out if Surovikin helped Prigozhin.
There are indications that other Russian generals supported Prigozhin's attempt to change the leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry. Prigozhin would not have started the uprising if he did not believe in help.
The Kremlin called this information "speculation and gossip."
Signals that the Ukrainian F-16 pilots will be ready early than expected. Some pilots are able to shortcut the training because of their experience in Mig-29's and SU-27's
Ukrainians are reportably in Robotyne. They have been making slow but steady progress towards Tokmak and appear to have reached / breached the initial fortifications. Of note is that the published maps are purposely being kept a few days behind, so the below map is not really up to date.
After seeing some videos of the trench clearing, some of the trenches are very deep (almost full person height) and some are VERY dense (as in Hexagon pattern maybe 30 feet across!).
Anyone have any firearms knowledge? I am seeing a lot of what look like short silencers on the rifles being used. I am assuming these are useful in trench fighting to avoid deafening yourself (?). In the videos, the gun shots appear to be silenced a bit, but that could also be the audio peaking out the mic.
First shot looks to be an M14 carbine (?), the second some sort of AK, both with what look to be short silencers. Maybe flash suppressors? The first video BTW was very brutal and VERY short range (as in a few feet). Apparently the Ukrainians got to the other side of a trench as the Russians where being driven out of it.
Also of note: The trench fighting is pretty intense (involves lots of grenades), but the hard stuff to watch are the drone grenade drops (which the targets seem to be entirely unaware of). Grenades do not have the huge explosive power you see in movies, they tend to do a lot of maiming, except when you drop one right next to someone.
I wonder if Prigozhin wanted to stop the invasion of Ukraine, seize power to make a far more hardened and ambitious national mobilization, or seize power of the country as a whole with no real strategy after.
Having him in Belarus could result in a few different scenarios - mobilizing Belarus against the Kremlin, for one. Prigozhin could make a coup against Lushenko, forcing the hand of Belarus to engage Ukraine. Or simply, he could tell Lushenko "don't do anything, the Kremlin is crumbling, best align yourself with NATO now."
In reply to aircooled :
Not sure. Both of those rounds would be supersonic so not a lot of suppression would happen.
In reply to pheller :
Expanding one of the highlights above kind of talks to that also:
Lukashenko may seek to use the Wagner Group in Belarus to reduce the Belarusian military’s accumulated structural dependency on the Russian military for higher operational functions. Lukashenko may seek to use the Wagner Group to help rebuild lost capability within the Belarusian military that the Belarusian military largely delegated to the Russian Western Military District. The Belarusian military’s dissolution of its unified ground command in 2011 effectively subordinated Belarus’ military to the Western Military District.[13] Belarus has no recent experience in conducting large-scale operations or organizing exercises above the battalion level. Belarus’ main source of knowledge and experience for higher operational activity is from Russian-organized exercises, such as the recurring Zapad, Union Shield, and Unbreakable Brotherhood exercises.[14] The Wagner Group has experience conducting combined arms operations with formations larger than the combat services of the Belarusian military.[15] It is unclear how successful this assessed effort may be, however. The Belarusian military’s operational subordination to the Russian General Staff has been a de facto reality for many years, and reversing such deep institutional linkages will be difficult, if even possible. Russia’s new regime stability crisis may provide novel opportunities for Minsk, nonetheless.
In reply to Stampie :
It's a thing.
I always thought the main benefit would be in reducing muzzle flash.
Russian Warship, Go Berkeley Yourself said:
In reply to Stampie :
It's a thing.
I always thought the main benefit would be in reducing muzzle flash.
For sure they will drop decibels but I think Stampie was just mentioning that you really can't silence any that that is moving faster than 1000FPS. Big luxury if the good guys have them.
In reply to 84FSP :correct. You will get some reduced noise from the initial explosion, but the bullet going supersonic is going to be loud.
likely, its just flash supression. Short barrel AK's(and all the other rifles) make quite the muzzle flash. I have a Draco, shooting it in low light is the best part. You would be seen from miles around if you were shooting it at night with no supression.
supressors are not evil. They also are not as quiet as the movies. I have 2, legal of course with ATF stamps. The .45 can makes it sound like a louder paintball gun.
In reply to aircooled :
Anyone here ever sit through FCPA training (foreign corrupt practices act)? The most corrupt part of the world is still corrupt? I've sat through it a few times and Russia is always at the top of the list battling it out with places like Nigeria. I don't trust the main stream media. If that media is Russian I tune it out completely. They lie about everything.
aircooled said:Anyone have any firearms knowledge? I am seeing a lot of what look like short silencers on the rifles being used. I am assuming these are useful in trench fighting to avoid deafening yourself (?). In the videos, the gun shots appear to be silenced a bit, but that could also be the audio peaking out the mic.
First shot looks to be an M14 carbine (?), the second some sort of AK, both with what look to be short silencers. Maybe flash suppressors? The first video BTW was very brutal and VERY short range (as in a few feet). Apparently the Ukrainians got to the other side of a trench as the Russians where being driven out of it.
Also of note: The trench fighting is pretty intense (involves lots of grenades), but the hard stuff to watch are the drone grenade drops (which the targets seem to be entirely unaware of). Grenades do not have the huge explosive power you see in movies, they tend to do a lot of maiming, except when you drop one right next to someone.
Aircooled, I am replying to you because you have the pictures, but you have good answers before me.
The suppressor on the top pic is regular length for a 5.56 suppressor, so that looks normal.
On the AK, that is what is often called a "linear muzzle break" which is to say that it may or may not reduce muzzle flash, but it will direct most of the concussion forward, which counts as away from you and often away from your friends, as well. Here are some examples:
I have a couple Noveske Flaming Pigs, which are the opposite of flash hiders (I have never used one in the dark, so I really don't care), But shooting a 5.56 7.5" with the Flaming Pig hits the ears about as hard as using a 16" barrel or perhaps a little softer, so the sound redirection (quieter at the shooter, louder in front) can be significant.
Ukraine is officially reporting significant recent gains. I more updated map is shown below and shows how much progress they have made toward Tokmak. There of course are significant defensive lines in that direction of course (see map posted previously). (The more accurate map, as above, updates will have to wait a few days)
The question to ask here is: why is Ukraine announcing this? They have been rather quite up to this point. There is little reason to believe it is not true. We certainly don't know how much they have paid for this ground in lives and equipment (which is a very critical metric). They obviously want to assure they are doing something, to assure the west their investment is worth it.
Of note is that there has been almost no news of any significant looses of western equipment (e.g. Leopards). Clearly the Ukrainians would not advertise this, but the Russians absolutely would, even when it's not entirely true. That group that was ambushed a few weeks back was about all that has been seen, and I think most of those have been recovered and will likely be repaired. Maybe related, no significant tank engagement have been noted or shown (waiting for a break out maybe, or just too many anti-tank missiles?)
Is this the point the Ukrainians really start to lean in? Commit more forces? Although the Russians have very layered defenses, at some point they will start to collapse. With the amount of logistics attacks the Ukrainians have been doing, an actual break out may not even be required (e.g. lack of resources and moral).
Ukraine reports advances in early stages of counterattack
KYIV (Reuters) -Ukraine's military said on Thursday it had regained control of over 100 square km (38 square miles) of territory in a counteroffensive against Russian forces and Kyiv added Ukraine's forces had advanced on key sectors of the front line.
Although tougher battles lie ahead, and the land recaptured in just over a week is a fraction of the territory Russia holds in Ukraine, the advances are Kyiv's biggest in several months.
aircooled said:Ukraine is officially reporting significant recent gains. I more updated map is shown below and shows how much progress they have made toward Tokmak. There of course are significant defensive lines in that direction of course (see map posted previously). (The more accurate map, as above, updates will have to wait a few days)
The question to ask here is: why is Ukraine announcing this? They have been rather quite up to this point. There is little reason to believe it is not true. We certainly don't know how much they have paid for this ground in lives and equipment (which is a very critical metric). They obviously want to assure they are doing something, to assure the west their investment is worth it.
NATO conference in starting in Lithuania in two weeks. There is a pretty broad divide between NATO members on how to proceed regarding Ukraine's desire for membership, and the Ukrainians are pushing hard to get states on board.
Sometimes you don't need a missile to get rid of a Russian general:
'Purge': Top Russian generals Gerasimov and Surovikin are reportedly missing following Wagner mutiny
Two of Russia's senior commanders have reportedly disappeared from public view after the Wagner Group's aborted mutiny, which targeted Russian military leadership.
One general was reportedly arrested in the days since Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his short-lived rebellion and relocated his forces to Belarus. Prigozhin's "march for justice" on Moscow was seen as the most significant challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime in decades, and Putin now seeks to reassert his authority.
The other commander, Armed Forces Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov, has not appeared in public or on state TV since the aborted mutiny on Saturday, when Prigozhin demanded Gerasimov be handed over. Nor has he been mentioned in a defense ministry press release since June 9, Reuters reported.
More on the situation. A similar situation of course occurred after the somewhat well known attempt to kill Hitler with the suitcase bomb (e.g. Tom Cruise movie Valkyrie). There was a purge of those involved, which included the rather famous, and very competent German general Rommel, who was allowed to commit suicide rather than face trial (and disgrace for him and his family).
Russian sources speculated that Wagner’s rebellion is already having widespread impacts on the Russian command structure. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Wagner’s rebellion has prompted “large-scale purges” among the command cadre of the Russian armed forces and that the Russian MoD is currently undergoing a “crash test” for loyalty.[7] The milblogger claimed that the Russian Federal Protective Service (FSO) is conducting a review of the Russian military leadership as well as the individual unit commanders.[8] The milblogger claimed that Russian officials are using the MoD’s “indecisiveness” in suppressing the rebellion and “support for paramilitary companies (PMCs)” as pretexts to remove “objectionable” personnel from their positions. The milblogger notably claimed that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) commander and rumored deputy theater commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky assumed responsibilities as overall theater commander in Ukraine from Chief of the General Staff and current overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov on an unspecified date, but likely after the rebellion. The milblogger emphasized that Gerasimov will retain his post as Chief of the General Staff but will no longer have responsibilities for Russian operations in Ukraine. Another Russian source claimed that an “atmosphere of suspicion has enveloped the General Staff” and that affiliates of Gerasimov are accused of indecision and failure while the affiliates of deputy commander of the joint grouping of forces in Ukraine Army General Sergei Surovikin are accused of complicity in the rebellion.[9] The sources publishing these speculations have largely been accurate in previous reporting on Russian command changes, although the ongoing disruption to human networks and the severe potential consequences related to Prigozhin’s armed rebellion may affect these sources’ accuracy. ISW cannot confirm any of these speculations about the command changes at this time, but it is evident that the armed rebellion is continuing to have substantial ramifications in the information space.
In reply to aircooled :
While there are some superficial similarities to the 20 July (or Stauffenberg) Plot, they don't go all that far. The motives are different: the Germans involved wanted to end what they saw as a failed and impossible war effort, while the Russians think Putin isn't going hard enough to win. The German plot was centered on the regular army and intelligence service (the Abwehr), not the SS and the Gestapo, which are a closer analog to Wagner in the current case. The results of failure will be similar - purges and hardening of the leader's position - but while the 20 July Plot pushed Hitler further toward the loyal and radical SS, the Wagner attempt will likely push Putin toward the regular army and the FSB, which have been complicit but are also staffed with at least some professional officers with a sense of strategic and diplomatic outcomes.
I expect Putin's housecleaning to result in less open internal dissent from the milblogger community, as well as nationalist radicals like Alexander Dugin who have been calling for an intensified war effort. The FSB will probably redouble efforts to sniff out disloyalty, and the military will struggle to present accurate battlefield assessments for fear of being labeled defeatist. But in the grand scheme of things, the way in which the rebellion ended probably results in at least a somewhat more stable situation in Russia, which is not a bad thing, but not one that is likely to fundamentally alter the course of the war (much as the 20 July Plot did not alter the trajectory of Germany in the final year of that war).
In reply to matthewmcl :
You know my cousin said something to me about the USMC investigation of flash suppression, sound suppression, and sound direction. He is a non active Marine but the only service member of my family to be involved in several gun battles. He didn't explain it as well as you so I wasn't sure if he knew what the technology could accomplish. It isn't "silencing" so much an minimizing gunfire impact on the Marine's senses.
Sorry if my wild theories irritate but could there be an elaborate plot against Putin so large that Belarus would risk joining Ukraine, not for benevolent reasons but for Belarus to escape Putin's control?
Yeah seems a bit James Bond villain level planning but the activities in Russia already seem like an 80s action movie plot.
Edit: or better yet a Jack Ryan book plot.
More like Austin Powers and Dr Evil. Except with all of the killing.
In reply to Advan046 :
Nothing wrong with testing theories, wild or not. That said, I don't think this stands even limited scrutiny. Clearly, any such plot would require extensive preparation. Even if this could somehow be kept under wraps - it can't be, but let's go with the premise - would Ukraine trust Lukashenko? And even if they did believe him, what does Belarus offer? They're certainly not going to attack Russia, having angered Russia they certainly can't afford to send forces to help Ukraine, and Ukraine has nothing to spare to bolster Belarus' defences. And there's no way the US/NATO/EU is going to stick their collective nose in the middle of that mess.
Now, a similarly wild theory that I think is slightly more plausible (which is to say still very much not going to happen) would have Lukashenko plotting with Prigozhin to engineer a break with Russia. At least here both Lukashenko and Prigozhin have motives and a certain shared concern about their positions whereby cooperation could be mutually advantageous. But once again, Belarus is to weak to stand on its own, even with some help from the remnants of Wagner, and it has no friends to fall back on, so it would just end up isolated and eventually right back where it started from, or worse.
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