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mazdeuce - Seth
mazdeuce - Seth Mod Squad
5/20/21 2:10 p.m.

What if we're the seed planet but we haven't sent the seeds out yet? 

RX Reven'
RX Reven' GRM+ Memberand SuperDork
5/20/21 2:53 p.m.
Beer Baron said:
RX Reven' said:

3.  I believe it is as there's at least 200 billion planets in our galaxy alone (conservative estimate of one for each star) which drives up the probabilistic resource (rolls of the dice) 

My point is, the odds of life spontaneously evolving on one particular planet are "impossibly" low. But the odds of life spontaneously evolving in any of 100's of billions of possible worlds is pretty fair.

If life occurred on a planet, then that is the planet that life occurred on.

Let's say life on earth was seeded here from debris from another planet. Okay. Then life had to have spontaneously occurred on *that* particular planet. That is just as improbable as life occurring spontaneously on *this* particular planet. It had to start somewhere. And were it started, it started.

It's like... if you add up all the odds that you, exactly as you are, were born, they are impossibly small. Think of all the chances of little things that had to align that led to your parents getting together and then *that* particular sperm fertilizing *that* particular egg. Astronomically low. But... you're here. It obviously happened. It's astronomically low that this particular combination occurred exactly as it did, but eventually *something* was going to occur. You are just one of an infinite number of possibilities that actually ended up happening.

Yep, you're referring to what is known as the "anthropic principle".

I get the concept but I find the explanation lacking due to the principle of "function".

Who would know or care if I were a little different (I'd still function) but the fact that I'm a functioning person of any type rather than random chemicals swirling around suggests intent and intent requires either a conscious maker or "necessity" which gives the appearance of intent.

Hopefully you recognize that I've essentially taken us full circle to Darwin "evolution is a random, unguided process that gives the appearance of design".

The most succinct summary I can offer is...design and necessity have the same appearance but function suggests intent.   

Honestly, if I were to debate your position on your behalf, I'd invoke the multiverse where every possible thing happens an infinite number of times...this would resolve the probabilistic resource problem.

But the multiverse, by definition, is no more provable than theology which is fine by me, I'm agnostic, but both are the end of the road in terms of scientific inquiry.

Justjim75
Justjim75 SuperDork
5/20/21 3:11 p.m.

If an unidentifiable aircr......object moving in the air, was that close, in our airspace or too close to our aircraft without communicating out military would blow it up right?  Post 9/11 and all?  So I think they do know what it is, if it's real or a ruse.

Also, it seems arrogant to think that out of an infinite space, no end, ever, that humans (who don't seem to doing that great right now) are the only intelligent life in a place so big we can't even comprehend it

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/20/21 3:15 p.m.

WARNING:  The aliens are now posting on YouTube trying to make us think it is not them!

 

QuasiMofo (John Brown)
QuasiMofo (John Brown) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/20/21 3:31 p.m.

And, to take this a different angle consider this alternate theory:

Deep Thought is the computer running the Matrix. 42 is the number of continents multiplied by the 6 primary races. UFOs and Deja Vu are simply code rewrites by the computer correcting for any number of changes. Each habitat zone planet has it's own version of Deep Thought and its own program. All of the computers are essentially science fair projects for the grade school children of megagods.

jgrewe
jgrewe HalfDork
5/20/21 4:30 p.m.

In reply to QuasiMofo (John Brown) :

So, you're saying the mice are running everything?

Javelin (Forum Supporter)
Javelin (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/20/21 4:55 p.m.

I think that there are a lot of facts missing in this discussion. Here are some examples with sources.

  • Back in 2017, a flying craft violated airspace from California to Washington that was not able to be tracked on radar yet was visually spotted by multiple contacts before disappearing. This UAO was challenged by NORAD and F-15's were scrambled that were unable to intercept it (I can confirm this part idependently as the F-15's shook the crap out of my work that day and I saw them fly past). https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/16079/airliners-and-f-15s-involved-in-bizzare-encounter-with-mystery-aircraft-over-oregon The reporters followed up with FOIA requests and obtained the few radar trackings that did show, all of the radio audio, and the after-action reports confirming everything from both the FAA and the USAF. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/18473/faa-recordings-deepen-mystery-surrounding-ufo-over-oregon-that-sent-f-15s-scrambling To put this into context, a large, visible craft was able to fly with impunity while evading radar including NORAD and the USAF admits they have no idea what (or who).
  • In 2018 reports started appearing detailing the Navy's encounter with a "tic-tac-shaped" craft in 2004. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/21000/highly-detailed-report-on-harrowing-encounter-between-f-a-18s-and-ufo-off-baja-surfaces This report is earth-shattering from a defense point of view, as these sightings were among a carrier strike group conducting exercises. This is the largest and most-capable force in the world, especially concerning target acquisition, and yet something/someone was able to penetrate it. This is not just a "ghosting" on radar, this thing was visually spotted by numerous crews. The "ghost in the machine" doesn't fit, either, as it was tracked by AWACS, the seekers and radars on the F-18's, and the ship-based radars. Remember, this is three separate instances, and all involved both radar and visual contact. So after nearly 15 years, video surfaces of the target lock from an F/A-18 of the second incident and the Pentagon confirms both it's authenticity and that the object remained "unidentified". Again, this is HUGE from just a defense standpoint. Even if it is terrestrial, didn't break any laws of physics, etc, the fact that it was able to penetrate a carrier strike group and evade all intercepts and the military confirms it is insane. Can you imagine if it was the Russians/Chinese/North Koreans/Canada?!? And let's be clear, this wasn't supposed to leak. As it got leaked and FOIA requests were submitted enough details spilled out that the Pentagon finally had to just make official statements on all of it in 2019, which was disarmingly, yes they acknowledge the sightings and videos are real and no, they still don't know what/who it was. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/27666/what-the-hell-is-going-on-with-ufos-and-department-of-defense None of the contacts are assumed to be extra-terrestrial at this point, they are literally just unidentified flying objects (hence the name change to unidentified aerial phenomenon). 
  • Then we learned that in 2019 three AEGIS destroyers were shadowed by six UAV's for a number of nights in adverse conditions for much longer than any known commercial or military drone can operate for, tracking the ships for over 100 nautical miles on a single night. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/39913/multiple-destroyers-were-swarmed-by-mysterious-drones-off-california-over-numerous-nights At least one of these incidents was visually witnessed by a cruise ship in the area. 
  • A second carrier strike group was then reported to have sighted UAP's back in 2014-15, once again with both visual and multiple types of radar locks, including video proof. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/28305/carrier-group-in-recent-ufo-encounters-had-new-air-defense-tech-just-like-nimitz-in-2004-incident This is a completely different group on the opposite coast with even more advanced capabilities. Just watch the released footage that was verified authentic by the Pentagon:

 

  • Yes, I know it's the Blink-182 Academy that got the footage initially, but the raw footage was confirmed and then re-released by the Pentagon themselves. Again, our own military is publicly and openly admitting that high performance UAP's have penetrated the airspace in carrier battle groups with impunity. The contacts in these videos were tracked by eyewitnesses, upgraded Aegis radars, E-2 Hawkeyes, and the F/A-18's target acquisition radars independently and simultaneously. Simply put, what ever it was, it WAS a legitimate, solid object. These are the encounters where the object seemed to "defy the known laws of physics" with data that was verifired by multiple combat platforms.
  • In late 2019/early 2020 a swarm of drones/UAV's appeared in Colorado. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/34662/faa-documents-offer-unprecedented-look-into-colorado-drone-mystery These swarms appeared to be a large "mother" ship with several smaller ones flying in formations that were witnessed by dozens of authorities across three states. Once again, the Pentagon denies any involvement and the FBI and FAA drew blanks on what/who it was.
  • Later in 2020 it's uncovered that as far back as 2013 F/A-18 pilots had encountered high-performance white UAV's off of the east coast of the US https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33371/here-are-the-detailed-ufo-incident-reports-from-navy-pilots-flying-off-the-east-coast Again, even if these are terrestrial, the idea that someone else can operate within our active military assets with impunity is staggering in implications.

All of this is summarized by TWZ, including the raw footage from the Pentagon, in a brief here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40456/inspector-general-launches-review-of-pentagons-handling-of-ufo-encounters Basically the defense analyst industry seems to think that either a foreign operator (meaning terrestrial adversary) or another branch of the US government (USAF, CIA, etc) is behind one or more of these sightings. However it is also noted that with improved capability comes increasing chances of "catching" objects/UAP's, as seen by the much higher data quality between the 2004 and 2014 CSG incidents. Keep in mind that the first iPhone came out in 2007, so 2014 is still pretty "old" in electronics terms. 

These are the videos from 2014-2015 straight from the Pentagon:

 

 

 

Next month (June 2021) the Pentagon has to deliver unclassified reports to Congress on UAP's. Either we're about to learn about some serious black-ops stuff the US or an adversary has been doing for decades, or their will be public admittance of extraterrestrial technology. That's what has "aliens" on the news feeds.

ShawnG
ShawnG UltimaDork
5/20/21 4:58 p.m.

I don't get it.

Google can show me a very clear picture of my own back yard but there is never a better pic of a UFO than the bigfoot pictures from the 60's

Javelin (Forum Supporter)
Javelin (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/20/21 5:02 p.m.
ShawnG said:

I don't get it.

Google can show me a very clear picture of my own back yard but there is never a better pic of a UFO than the bigfoot pictures from the 60's

Your backyard can't move. Try taking a picture of a cat, or a child playing, in focus. Now do it from a fighter jet going 400 MPH of another flying object going as fast.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/20/21 5:27 p.m.
Javelin (Forum Supporter) said:

....

....

The US Military certainly doesn't know anything about any "drone swarms":

https://mindmatters.ai/2020/09/meet-the-u-s-armys-new-drone-swarms/

https://militarybases.com/colorado/

matthewmcl (Forum Supporter)
matthewmcl (Forum Supporter) HalfDork
5/20/21 6:22 p.m.

1. I don't thinks it's aliens, but ...

2. Einstein's Theory of Relativity violated the "Laws of Physics," until it was shown to be one of them. We are still just barely beginning to learn how gravity works. There is so much that we don't know, yet. Violating our understanding of the laws of physics is entirely different than violating the laws of physics.

3. Our entire solar system is moving about 4 billion miles per year, perpendicular to our planetary system rotation, so slingshot maneuvers don't help. If you want to go back in time one year and find earth, you have to not only figure out how to go back in time, you have to figure out how to move position that 4 billion miles while still matching velocity with the earth once you get there. Aliens might be a more conceivable probability.

Appleseed
Appleseed MegaDork
5/20/21 6:25 p.m.
ShawnG said:

I don't get it.

Google can show me a very clear picture of my own back yard but there is never a better pic of a UFO than the bigfoot pictures from the 60's

UFOs are assembled from the same naturally blurry material as Bigfoot. 

FatMongo
FatMongo Reader
5/20/21 8:07 p.m.

Next month (June 2021) the Pentagon has to deliver unclassified reports to Congress on UAP's. Either we're about to learn about some serious black-ops stuff the US or an adversary has been doing for decades, or their will be public admittance of extraterrestrial technology. That's what has "aliens" on the news feeds.

Woah Boy, 

You are headed for a big disappointment if you think that the DoD report to Congress is going to state either of those things.

In fact, let me save you some reading. The unclassified report will have 3 conclusions:

I.) DoD has determined that UAPs do not pose a threat to U.S. National Security, U.S. persons, or U.S airspace

II.) DoD has identified xyz number of cases that they are unable to identify the origin of the UAP

III.) DoD will continue to investigate UAPs in and maintain awareness 

RevRico
RevRico GRM+ Memberand UltimaDork
5/20/21 8:42 p.m.

In reply to matthewmcl (Forum Supporter) :

Our entire solar system is moving about 4 billion miles per year, perpendicular to our planetary system rotation, so slingshot maneuvers don't help. If you want to go back in time one year and find earth, you have to not only figure out how to go back in time, you have to figure out how to move position that 4 billion miles while still matching velocity with the earth once you get there. Aliens might be a more conceivable probability.

 

If you have achieved the capability to travel through time, covering the last few billion miles on a multi light year shot shouldn't be that difficult. 

By that point, you're part of a galactic civilization, not just a country, or a planet. You're probably using stars as a power source. 

With immense amounts of hard drive space, we've teleported atoms here and now. For a civilization that advanced in the first place, it's not much of a stretch to say they could teleport ships. 

At that point, what we are seeing could just be jumps, even flashes of data that's being stored in the massive quantities of dark matter in the universe, clutched if you will. 

Remember, with everything we've been able to see and photograph, we still can't account for the mass of galaxies and larger without a dark matter. What's to stop an eventual development of using it as storage medium or even an energy source?

 

Curtis73 (Forum Supporter)
Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/20/21 9:11 p.m.
mazdeuce - Seth said:

What if we're the seed planet but we haven't sent the seeds out yet? 

Deep thoughts.  What if Earth is the sporophyte generation just carrying out our job as meiotic vestige only to realize that our planet is just the precursor for the gametophyte generation and we are destined to explode into the universe and sponsor biogenesis all over the cosmos.

Here we are thinking we're the shiz, but what if we're just a sperm waiting to be launched?

RX Reven'
RX Reven' GRM+ Memberand SuperDork
5/20/21 9:29 p.m.
matthewmcl (Forum Supporter) said:

1. I don't thinks it's aliens, but ...

2. Einstein's Theory of Relativity violated the "Laws of Physics," until it was shown to be one of them. We are still just barely beginning to learn how gravity works. There is so much that we don't know, yet. Violating our understanding of the laws of physics is entirely different than violating the laws of physics.

3. Our entire solar system is moving about 4 billion miles per year, perpendicular to our planetary system rotation, so slingshot maneuvers don't help. If you want to go back in time one year and find earth, you have to not only figure out how to go back in time, you have to figure out how to move position that 4 billion miles while still matching velocity with the earth once you get there. Aliens might be a more conceivable probability.

Hahaha, that's the exact same argument I used to comfort my two daughters when they learned that two relatives had died in our house and they were afraid of being haunted.

Me:  "Girls, we're trillions of miles away from where they were when they died due to cosmic expansion so they'd have to have incredible navigational skills to even get back here and beyond that, they'd have no mass so controlling their position relative to the moment by moment movement of our house would require extreme precision to compensate for the earth's rotation, orbital path around the sun, and cosmic expansion.

They still spent the night sleeping in my bed but I think I made a pretty decent argument frown

Javelin (Forum Supporter)
Javelin (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/20/21 9:44 p.m.
FatMongo said:

Next month (June 2021) the Pentagon has to deliver unclassified reports to Congress on UAP's. Either we're about to learn about some serious black-ops stuff the US or an adversary has been doing for decades, or their will be public admittance of extraterrestrial technology. That's what has "aliens" on the news feeds.

Woah Boy, 

You are headed for a big disappointment if you think that the DoD report to Congress is going to state either of those things.

In fact, let me save you some reading. The unclassified report will have 3 conclusions:

I.) DoD has determined that UAPs do not pose a threat to U.S. National Security, U.S. persons, or U.S airspace

II.) DoD has identified xyz number of cases that they are unable to identify the origin of the UAP

III.) DoD will continue to investigate UAPs in and maintain awareness 

It's argued that your II. is exactly the "black-ops stuff for decades" or ET. 

Antihero (Forum Supporter)
Antihero (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UberDork
5/20/21 10:57 p.m.

Absence of proof isn't proof of absence. The universe is massive and very old, to think that we are the only ones around is a pretty big leap. Remember when you look up at the night sky that each of those points of light has multiple planets orbiting it, and that's only the ones we can see.

 

Maybe no one has invented faster than light travel. Maybe we are too late or too early to have life popping up everywhere in the universe. Maybe no one cares. Maybe they walk among us.

 

Really, the not caring is somewhat likely. Most of us haven't even seen most the world that we currently live on and that's a tiny leap compared to " one small step for man"

Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter)
Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/21/21 7:41 a.m.

Everytime I see these I come to the conclusion that it's all the different branches of the US MIL just pranking each other. Mostly because it's exactly what I would do.

Ian F (Forum Supporter)
Ian F (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
5/21/21 8:15 a.m.

A UFO is exactly that: A "UFO".  Being a UFO isn't proof of extraterrestrial visitation. It just means when can't identify what it is.  An astronomy guy I follow puts is best, "these are photography questions, not 'are these an aliens' questions."

He also tends to not believe in intelligent life out there mainly due to his belief in the Fermi paradox - Wikipedia.

Of course, all of this depends on one's definition of "life" existing in known spacial dimensions.

RevRico
RevRico GRM+ Memberand UltimaDork
5/21/21 8:42 a.m.

In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :

My problem with the Fermi paradox is that it assumes life we find will be like us. 

Let's take a look back through fossil records of Earth over the last 2 billion years. Bacteria, small sea life, large sea life, dinosaurs, rodents, monkeys, us. (I'm cherry picking based on size).

Dinosaurs lived on this planet far far longer than any mammalian ancestors we've been able to find, hundreds of millions of years. They were alive, there's evidence they used family groups and packs to hunt and survive, is that a sign of intelligence or just fighting to survive? 

But then, there's the squid, which has nothing at all to do remotely with any life we've found so far on earth. They also exhibit a level of intelligence unseen in the rest of the animal kingdom.

We have found bacteria thriving on the outside of the ISS, exposed to the vacuum and radiation of space itself with no shielding. We've found tardigrades in extremes that shouldn't even support cellular life here on our own planet. 

When we get to the moon's of Jupiter and Saturn, and actually dig into the water ice, what will we find? How about a high carbon low gravity planet in a binary system? A fire world or an ice world? We've found life in all those extremes here.

Intelligent life is another argument though. What defines intelligence? Destroying your planet to build things as progress or monuments that you were there? Burning down your own house isn't very intelligent. Communication? Critical thinking? Sea life can do that, are crabs intelligent? Are dolphins?

Would we even recognize a more intelligent species if we saw it?

Ian F (Forum Supporter)
Ian F (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
5/21/21 8:49 a.m.

In reply to RevRico :

I have many issues of my own with the Fermi Paradox - mostly to do with the over-simplification of how it views life and intelligent life - which is purely from a "Western European Greed" perspective.

One "would we recognize life" arguments is we would be able to see the energy output, regardless of the nature of the life created said output.  It's an interesting theory.

Antihero (Forum Supporter)
Antihero (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UberDork
5/21/21 9:15 a.m.

By some definitions fire is alive, it consumes, moves and produces heat.

Flynlow (FS)
Flynlow (FS) Dork
5/21/21 10:09 a.m.
Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) said:

Everytime I see these I come to the conclusion that it's all the different branches of the US MIL just pranking each other. Mostly because it's exactly what I would do.

This.  It was years and years ago (possibly even late 90s) that i read about USAF hypersonic aircraft testing out of groom lake.  Supposed to be roughly triangular shaped, with odd exhaust/contrail shapes.  Wouldnt surprise me if they're operational now and decided to buzz the navy.  
 

The military acknowledging it could just be the "soft reveal" ahead of declassifying the aircraft.  Think how long the sr71, f-117, and b2 existed and flew before being made known to the public

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/21/21 10:21 a.m.
matthewmcl (Forum Supporter) said:

3. Our entire solar system is moving about 4 billion miles per year, perpendicular to our planetary system rotation, so slingshot maneuvers don't help. If you want to go back in time one year and find earth, you have to not only figure out how to go back in time, you have to figure out how to move position that 4 billion miles while still matching velocity with the earth once you get there. Aliens might be a more conceivable probability.

People used to theorize that you would suffocate in a train traveling at over 60mph because all the air would go to the back of the car.

 

Frame of reference, frame of reference.  I don't need to go 750 mph to walk a block east.

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