Leaves are Changing....Should I Turn Over a New Leaf?

Having been barraged lately by the news coming out about the 2018 Nissan Leafs (Leaves?) I happened to notice that my local electric company (BGE) is offering $10,000 off MSRP on the 2017 Leaf (and, oddly, only on the Leaf- no other electric car) until the end of September.  This is in addition to the $7500 federal tax incentive.  Which brings a 2017 Leaf down to around $13,000 out of pocket.  I.E. really, really cheap.

The problem: my daily commute is around 43 miles each way- i.e. dang close to 90 miles per day.  Work doesn't really have anyplace to charge up- though my boss might be accommodating and let me run a 110V plug out to the car for the ~8 hours I'm there.  But, assuming no place to charge at work, that means 90 miles a day on a "claimed" range of, IIRC, about 107 miles.  That's, uh, a little close for my comfort.  

Questions: should I be concerned about driving a car with a 107 mile range 90 miles every day, sun and rain, heat and cold?  How much does the range degrade over time?  If I wait for the 2018, the range jumps to 150 miles, which I feel comfortable with- but then there's no guarantee that the 10,000 rebate will be there, and then we're talking $23,000 for the car- not as much of a value proposition there.  

What would YOU do?  Turn over a new Leaf now and hope it can eek out 90 miles a day...or wait for the 2018 and hope the electric company is as generous with the new models?

Yes you should be concerned. Using the heat in the winter drops the real range to something in the 70 mile range. You're where it's colder than here, so it may even be worse. Now seat heaters can make a huge difference in your comfort, and the newer Leaf's have a heat pump which is much more efficient than the toaster&fan my Leaf had, but it's still marginal.

Check around for a VPP code from your employer or something else, it's invoice - $1000 on a 2017 Leaf, so pretty big.

Also the Federal rebate is a rebate from one years worth of tax burden. Mine isn't $7500, so my rebate zeroes my tax for one year, very far under $7500 total impact.

That said, I love those cars. I want one.

Yeah, the heat was my big concern, I figured they weren't very efficient at turning joules into Q.  

Mr Buddy propane heater in the back?  ;-)

Our Federal tax burden is enough that I can take the whole 7500.  We don't have as many little deductions running around as you guys do.  

I'm not sure you'd get a real 90 miles of range even if you didn't tough the HVAC. If you had a charging situation at work it would be better, but your potential seems low. I guess just wait for 2018 and see if the power company does it again.

tuna55 said:

I'm not sure you'd get a real 90 miles of range even if you didn't tough the HVAC. If you had a charging situation at work it would be better, but your potential seems low. I guess just wait for 2018 and see if the power company does it again.

You're probably right.  

We have been talking about getting a 3rd car for the house and my commute is about 50 miles round trip and AEP Ohio is doing the same promotion.  Interesting.

Is your commute all highway or stop and go? I'm reasonably sure that the range is longer at lower speeds and that the car isn't going to just stop on you in the middle of the highway. You are going to be fine getting to work, you just might have to take it slow getting home in bad weather, which may not be a big deal.

I'd also do a check for fast charging stations between work and home. All you need is one, and to get enough of a top off for the trip in even bad weather will only take 20 min or so. If there is a charger somewhere you can justify stopping once in a while if necessary I would still consider the car.

If I got anything beyond the federal rebate I'd own one already. How long do you have to keep it for those rebates? Buy for $13k and if it doesn't work out let me give you your $ back?

Buy it and sell it to me for $13.5k?

Edit.  Damn, beaten to it.

I need this deal near me.

In reply to ProDarwin :

In reply to oldopelguy :

That was my other thought- if it doesn't work out, I could probably sell it and break even on the deal.  The problem being, then I potentially lose out on the $7500 credit and/or the 10,000 BGE credit if the 2018 comes out and I want one of those.  I don't know if there's any requirement to keep the car for a certain length of time.  

Anyone know if the 7500 fed rebate is a one-time thing, or if you purchase a second EV if it can be taken again (presumably in a different tax year- i.e. 2017 and 2018)?

oldopelguy said:

Is your commute all highway or stop and go? I'm reasonably sure that the range is longer at lower speeds and that the car isn't going to just stop on you in the middle of the highway. You are going to be fine getting to work, you just might have to take it slow getting home in bad weather, which may not be a big deal.

I'd also do a check for fast charging stations between work and home. All you need is one, and to get enough of a top off for the trip in even bad weather will only take 20 min or so. If there is a charger somewhere you can justify stopping once in a while if necessary I would still consider the car.

If I got anything beyond the federal rebate I'd own one already. How long do you have to keep it for those rebates? Buy for $13k and if it doesn't work out let me give you your $ back?

Commute is mostly highway, mostly 55-70 mph.  Average speed about 45 mph for the total commute (43 miles, takes me a little under an hour each way).  There is a charging station around the corner from my office in a shopping plaza.  The question is, do I want to bother with spending my lunch time over there waiting for my EV to charge?

I need to ask my boss about charging at the office. 

ProDarwin said:

I need this deal near me.

Tuna told me Duke is running this deal down in SC.  You guys don't have something similar?

If I decide not to get a Leaf, I might be willing to buy one for you and resell it, if we could work outsome for me to keep for my hassle.  

Then again, there's 2014's near me for sale with under 50k miles for under 10k.

I'll have to check. We have Duke as well (), but I haven't seen anything like this.

From my experience, normal highway speeds reduce range from the 107, it doesn't go much farther than that by going slower. It's relatively "thirsty" above 60 or so.

Still want one.

https://www.duke-energy.com/_/media/pdfs/energy-education/04-10-17-nissan-leaf-customer-flyer.pdf

In reply to ProDarwin :

Check your local dealer, too.  MINE seems to be running 12k off MSRP on 2017's as an "internet special sale".  

Does that mean you can get your $10K off that price? Because that's amazing. That and the federal rebate and it's pretty much free.

In reply to tuna55 :

I doubt it.  I think the BGE discount is 10k off MSRP.  I guess I could ask.  A 5,000 dollar Leaf would be crazy.  

tuna55 said:

From my experience, normal highway speeds reduce range from the 107, it doesn't go much farther than that by going slower. It's relatively "thirsty" above 60 or so.

This, with an exclamation point. I tended to regard the useful freeway range as closer to 60 miles on our '13.

I have a 75 mile round trip commute mostly freeway and I wouldn't even attempt it in my 2013 Leaf if I didn't have somewhere reliable to charge at work even on nice days.

No way no how is the 2017 going to make it to your work and back once the weather turns cold. It probably would be cutting it close even with today's temps. The EPA rated 107 miles is optimistic at best.

Even a 2018's "150 mile range" would be cutting it close in my opinion. Winter weather tends to cut my range in half. 

tuna55 said:

https://www.duke-energy.com/_/media/pdfs/energy-education/04-10-17-nissan-leaf-customer-flyer.pdf

Yup, found that right after I saw his post about Duke.

It is tempting, that's for sure.  I'm not sure the cost is low enough for me to jump on it.  Wonder how it will impact the used market though.

What used market LOL

I don't understand?  I see these pop up used fairly often.  If it drives the price down further, I'll probably jump on one.

That's what I meant. How much further down do they need to go? $8000 for a 3 year old car with 20k miles is pretty inexpensive. 

True, but I'm really cheap.  

The competition for the leaf in my case is my current car.  It's worth ~$1500 and costs me around $620/year in fuel.

ProDarwin said:

True, but I'm really cheap.  

The competition for the leaf in my case is my current car.  It's worth ~$1500 and costs me around $620/year in fuel.

Yes, we've discussed this before.  My DD was $750 and gets 30mpg (diesel) so there's pretty much no way any new car is going to offer that kind of value proposition.

But...its also got 293,000 miles on it.  And it doesn't have air conditioning.  And the radio only plays out of one speaker.  And it's loud.  And I have to do oil changes on it.  Not to mention fix little niggling crap that pops up.  

I just turned 40 this year, and I have a good job in my chosen profession.  An EV begins to get really attractive around the sub-$20k (out of pocket) range for me, provided it can make the commute without drama.  Even Mrs. VCH signed off on it- and we argue over who's cheaper (I save and reuse used car headlights, so I think I win).  

I still don't see EVs accounting for half of all vehicle registrations in 10 years, per our bet () but that doesn't mean I'm resistant to the idea.