Here's some more data points for you naysayers.
From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Picks Up
Texas factory activity increased in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 0.2 to 5.8, suggesting growth resumed this month.
Other measures of current manufacturing conditions also indicated growth in January. The new orders index jumped to 9.5, its highest reading in six months, after two months in negative territory. ... Perceptions of broader economic conditions were notably more positive in January. The general business activity index shot up to 15.3 after dipping into negative territory in December.
Labor market indicators reflected continued labor demand growth. The employment index came in at 12.2, up from 9.9 in December. The hours worked index continued to suggest average workweeks lengthened.
Expectations regarding future business conditions were markedly more optimistic in January.
Notice that this chart is a national chart, not a Texas Chart.
Existing Home Inventory declines 17% year-over-year in January. That means things are sellin' folks. And not just in Texas, but all over.
And 4 cylinderfury there's too much risk to get the ARM at this time. There are so many things that could go wrong with your scenario that you'd be much better off getting a fixed rate loan. The rate differential is so low you'll hardly notice the extra cost if your plan goes right, but you'll save much more than you risked if anything goes wrong.
Obamacare alone guarantees double digit interest rates in the semi-near future. Most of it doesn't go into effect till after the election, naturally cause we don't want anything to lower his chances of reelection, so the effects of it haven't even begun to hit us yet. And that won't be the good kind of appreciation that's due to increased value, that's the bad kind due to higher costs.
DILYSI Dave wrote:
jrw1621 wrote:
Where are rates hanging these days?
I bought in the middle of last year at 4.5%. Are they as low as 3.5% yet? I have heard in the past that if you do not drop a point (or close) it is typically not worth it.
I'm looking right now at a 10 year @ 2.75%.
well you can get a much better rate the shorter your term.
we bought Nov 2010, 30 year @ 4.25%
Sometimes you can't get a better rate on the shorter terms. 10 year bonds haven't been selling well so 15 year loans have been cheaper lately.
2.75% is about the rate of the 5 year ARM that 4cylinderfury should have been seeing so why risk it?
If you've got a decent credit score and not too low of a loan balance or too high of an TV then high 2's and into 3's are possible on almost all of the loan types out there right now.
But even if you had the worst scenarios available, that would still allow you to buy a home, you'd only be in the 4's. YOU WILL KICK YOURSELF LATER IF YOU DON'T DO IT.
That is presuming you are not in one of the few areas left that's not beginning to recover or won't recover soon. Don't worry about finding bottom, as long as you are close when things begin to rise again it will make you look like you were prescient.
DILYSI Dave wrote:
jrw1621 wrote:
Where are rates hanging these days?
I bought in the middle of last year at 4.5%. Are they as low as 3.5% yet? I have heard in the past that if you do not drop a point (or close) it is typically not worth it.
I'm looking right now at a 10 year @ 2.75%.
I'm locking in this week for 15/yr @ 2.875%.
z31maniac wrote:
DILYSI Dave wrote:
I'm looking right now at a 10 year @ 2.75%.
I'm locking in this week for 15/yr @ 2.875%.
dang, 15 months ago i got a 15 year @ 3.625%. i feel cheated. 
jrw1621
SuperDork
2/6/12 11:27 a.m.
In reply to mguar:
All good advice.
In my particular instance, due to variation in my monthly income, I personally see value taking out a 30 yr and therefore setting a manageable "minimum" monthly payment for myself. My intentions are to pay more than the required payment but this format leaves me a safety net for down months. This safety has a cost associated to it with a higher rate but to me, that represents a good value.
AngryCorvair wrote:
z31maniac wrote:
DILYSI Dave wrote:
I'm looking right now at a 10 year @ 2.75%.
I'm locking in this week for 15/yr @ 2.875%.
dang, 15 months ago i got a 15 year @ 3.625%. i feel cheated.
My dude will do a no-cost at 3.375% if you wanted to drop .25% without playing the "How much does it hurt to pay closing costs?" game.
Curmudgeon wrote:
Well, I just had an offer accepted on a foreclosure... Last sold for $125k in 2001, tax site FMV $133k, I am paying WAY WAY less.
Sweet deal! I'd be more excited for you if I wasn't quite so jealous :D
Pardon my lack of direction in this post. What's grinding my gears is that closing costs are so high compared to the down-payment. A 3.5% down mortgage will actually require more like a minimum of 5% down after including the 1% loan origination fee and a few other fixed costs even when the seller is covering closing costs. I'd need about $10,000 saved up to get into a place of my own. I have not much saved up but I just started living on my own after college in October with a real career as an engineer . Renting is killing me (because I'm not getting anything out of it as an investment or even as equity control for when the market goes up) but so would the rates and interest on a low down-payment house. I think I'll keep paying my share of the rent on a 2/2 apt with a roommate at $650/month but I really want a garage GRRRR.
slopecarver wrote:
Pardon my lack of direction in this post. What's grinding my gears is that closing costs are so high compared to the down-payment. A 3.5% down mortgage will actually require more like a minimum of 5% down after including the 1% loan origination fee and a few other fixed costs even when the seller is covering closing costs. I'd need about $10,000 saved up to get into a place of my own. I have not much saved up but I just started living on my own after college in October with a real career as an engineer . Renting is killing me (because I'm not getting anything out of it as an investment or even as equity control for when the market goes up) but so would the rates and interest on a low down-payment house. I think I'll keep paying my share of the rent on a 2/2 apt with a roommate at $650/month but I really want a garage GRRRR.
Talk to someone about a zero point mortgage - should be entirely possible to get into a home for just the 3.5% downpayment on the FHA loan with the seller paying other costs.
I managed to beat them WAY down on the price. 3br/2bath, separate 28x24 garage with another full bath and an upstairs room which could be a 4th bedroom. Vaulted ceiling with big fireplace and skylights, formal dining, eat in kitchen, large screened porch between the house and the garage. Really nice established neighborhood. Lot is ~18000 sq ft, well can't have everything. 
