Ruh Ro: Hurricane Time

Fox News now says it might be a category 4 storm when it hits FL:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/hurricane-dorian-florida-trump-category-three-storm

"Forecasters believe the storm will strengthen into a dangerous Category 3 hurricane by Friday while staying well east of the southern and central Bahamas before making a turn towards Florida by Sunday afternoon. At that time, the latest NHC forecast is for the storm to be a Category 4 storm as it approaches Florida."

whoa boy..

It seems like they tend to over estimate storms the past few years. They will say it is will be a Cat 4 and it will actually make landfall as a 2. They will say there will be a 20ft storm surge and it will end up being 3ft. Of course, sometimes things work the other way and the actual is worse than the predicted.

If I was in their shoes, I would default to predicting more severe over less severe too. If you under predict, it could result in lives lost, so it makes sense, but the TV news never seems to understand that. They tend to add on to the already grave predictions and seem to exist to get as many folks worked up as they can, at least the local news where I live.

Intensity forecasts are still not a perfect science. I would rather hope for the best and prepare for the worst, and I think most experienced storm preppers agree.

There are those, like my MIL, who think storms are just media hype. The rest of us usually take care of those people when the E36 M3 really hits the fan. Noticed they whine the worst, too.

Either way, tough to totally outmaneuver the worst aspects of human behavior. I’ll settle for sick suspense right now and the hope of a big relief later.

Margie

In reply to Marjorie Suddard :

Yes, I agree with hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

And of course the important thing to remember is that the wind makes the headlines, but it's the water that kills people 

Exactly. Evacuation analysis: Run from water, hide from wind.

In reply to Marjorie Suddard :

Oh boy... I just remembered... JG is out at the Solo Nationals... when is he scheduled to run?  I remember he ended up bailing early to get home to prep back when he had the Mustang car.  Hopefully that doesn't happen again. 

Edit. Just saw his FB post from yesterday. Doh.. 

Today, in Polk (center of state), the WaWa was assigning designated pumps to get fuel in an effort to prevent angry customers. 

Hoping it turns into a bad storm and everyone has enough ice and beer to make it through the weekend

In reply to Ian F :

Yeah, that may not be happening. Unless the forecast changes dramatically, he needs to be home with his family.

Well a pending Cat 4 is no joke. Please all of you at the mothership stay safe! 

Then again as you guys said and I lived through with Harvey. They're all bad when the rain starts falling that hard. 

JoeyM said:

Today, in Polk (center of state), the WaWa was assigning designated pumps to get fuel in an effort to prevent angry customers. 

I sold 600 gallons propane in under 4 hours. With one pump.  My tank is empty. Thank God amerigas is gonna do a run tomorrow. I also mean out of generators. Twice. The owner got a uhaul and drove to our Tampa DC to get stuff. 

I'd feel better with a generator but trying to buy one, plus gas, at this point is foolish. Loss of power isn't the end of the world, just uncomfortable. I don't get the people stocking up a multi-week apocalypse, you only need to get by until roads are cleared and power is up for the stores to reopen/be staffed. Specifically talking about greater Orlando, lots of infrastructure here to get things back up and running quickly. Probably gonna need more beer though, my stock is already depleting. I figure early sunday I'll go around and put up the shutters, if the forecast is still bad. Maybe saturday night.

Crummiest part, hopefully, will be not getting paid for a few days.

Today I learned that a clamshell will fit on a ramp truck. Just a little moment of levity during a E36 M3 situation.  

The forecast is looking worse as the days get closer. Everyone staying please take care. 

In reply to Error404 :

After Hugo hit Charleston, there were practically no stores open for 2-3 weeks. The two grocery stores in town flooded and were total write offs. Walmart was bringing stuff in by the truck load and selling straight out of the back of the truck because their store had the roof sitting on the floor. Forget ice, or anything beyond canned foods, they were nonexistent. It was cash and carry. Even as power was being turned back on, many stores were unusable due to interior and structure damage. Even making money hand over fist, we were getting our groceries from Pizza Hut where my wife worked at the time. They were bringing trucks in to feed their employees and were giving the food away. I was getting gas from the company I worked for so I could get to work and back. A lot of people didn't have that. You see pictures that look like war zones, that was a large part of the state. Hugo cut a swath right up the center. That was 30 years ago and the memory of it is still fresh in my mind. I prepare accordingly.

My current rule of thumb is to be able to feed and take care of myself and my family for 14 days in reasonable comfort and 30 days in less comfort. Our house and pantry stay stocked for that.  

Target was shockingly orderly this evening. I didn't feel like doing laundry, so I went to get new work pants, and pizza for dinner. I managed to buy pants, dinner, a LOAF OF BREAD (I eat a lot of sandwiches) and some deoderant, and I still managed to make it in and out in under 10 min. 

In reply to Mndsm :

Impressive. Daytona is a bit of a mess at rhe moment, especially gas stations. 

Lines at gas stations that have gas and some are out here (Delray Beach just South of Palm Beach). Grocery store has lots of empty shelves. Water limits per customer at grocery store and pallets are cleared out by the time stock people fetch another pallet from the back. Current forecasts show cat 4 knocking on my front door. Spent the afternoon trying to make my roof a little better but I don't my work will actually help much.

Yeah, this sucks. I'm watching our local hurricane hunter right now. We might die, we might get lucky. 

JG and I are going to make the call regarding Nationals tomorrow. On the plus side, I was going to be styling. I had/have period dress planned, too. 

I had the trees trimmed today, too. It was time. We lost a tree top the other day, so I had already called my guy and was in the queue. I have been using the same guy for 17 years. They have kept our trees healthy and looking good. So knowing the trees are ready is a little comforting. It's still stressful, though. 

David S. Wallens said:

Yeah, this sucks. I'm watching our local hurricane hunter right now. We might die, we might get lucky. 

JG and I are going to make the call regarding Nationals tomorrow. On the plus side, I was going to be styling. I had/have period dress planned, too. 

 

Like this?

I am ready:

Driving the M4 to work tomorrow, leaving it there and taking the train back. 

In reply to Floating Doc :

Think more Holman Moody.